UTSA vs South Florida Prediction and Pick, Week 11
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction and Pick, Week 11. Place a bet on this CFB football game with the best odds.
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: Trends
- Over the past 13 games, Texas-San Antonio has a 9-4 odds-on record.
- Thirteen of Texas-San Antonio’s most recent sixteen games have resulted in the total going over.
- Texas-San Antonio has a winning record of 4-2 in its previous six games.
- The Texas-San Antonio Longhorns have a record of 2-10 on the road in their previous 12 games.
- There have been nine out of the eleven games that Texas-San Antonio has played against an opponent from the American Conference conference in which the total has been over.
- Over the course of the last seven games that Texas-San Antonio has played against teams from the East Division, the total has been over in five of those games.
- After seven games played in November, Texas-San Antonio has a record of 6-1 against the spread.
- In its last five games played in week 11, Texas-San Antonio had a perfect state record of 5-0.
- The over/under record for South Florida’s last 12 games is 8-3-1.
- Five of South Florida’s most recent six games have resulted in the total going over.
- In its last five games, South Florida has a winning record of 4-1 against the spread.
- South Florida has won all five of its most recent home games by a score of 5-0.
- Six out of South Florida’s previous seven games against opponents from the American Conference conference have resulted in the total going over the point spread.
- Four of South Florida’s most recent five games against opponents from the West Division division have resulted in the total going over the point spread.
- In its last twenty games played in November, South Florida has a winning percentage of 5-15.
- In its last six games played in week 11, South Florida has a head-to-head record of 1-5.
- In its last 20 games played on Thursdays, South Florida has a record of 5-15 against the spread.
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction
Now we have the UTSA vs South Florida Prediction for both teams.
UTSA and South Florida meet in a Week 11 matchup that has all the markings of a high-scoring shootout, especially when digging into both teams’ recent trends. The over has been hitting at a remarkable rate for both programs, with UTSA seeing the total go over in 13 of its last 16 and South Florida cashing the over in five of its last six. Both teams play with pace, have explosive playmakers, and have shown defensive inconsistencies that often turn games into track meets. UTSA has been strong in recent weeks overall with a 4-2 record in its last six and has historically been strong late in the season, especially in November where the Roadrunners are 6-1 against the spread over their last seven. However, one of the biggest concerns for UTSA comes on the road — they are just 2-10 in their last 12 road games, and that trend becomes more meaningful here as they travel into a hostile environment. South Florida, meanwhile, has been one of the better home teams this season, winning five straight in Tampa. Add in that both teams have strong offensive identities, fast third-quarter scoring tendencies, and a consistent pattern of high totals in AAC matchups, and the stage is set for one of the most offensively driven games of the week.
UTSA enters this matchup with a balanced offense that has been efficient in both the passing and rushing phases. The Roadrunners are averaging 34 points per game and boast over 178 rushing yards per contest, ranking top 50 in the country on the ground. Their offensive line is doing just enough in pass protection, allowing only 1.25 sacks per game, and the unit has been particularly effective in the second and third quarters where they’ve produced their highest scoring outputs. The real challenge for UTSA will be whether their defense can withstand South Florida’s uptempo style. UTSA’s defense has struggled, allowing over 30 points per game and giving up explosive plays in both the run and pass game. Opponents are averaging nearly 6 yards per play against the Roadrunners, and their secondary has struggled to contain high-efficiency passing teams. The Roadrunners also haven’t traveled well, and their road issues could become a real factor against a Bulls offense that feeds off momentum swings. However, UTSA has shown that if they can lean into the run game to control time of possession and force longer, sustained drives, they can dictate tempo — something they’ll try to do to keep the Bulls’ offense off the field.
South Florida comes into this game with one of the more electric offenses in the AAC, averaging over 40 points per game while ranking 11th nationally in rushing. Their ability to stretch the field vertically and then come back with strong inside zone and perimeter run concepts makes them particularly tough to defend. In the third quarter especially, South Florida is explosive — they lead nearly the entire country in third-quarter scoring at 12.88 points per game. Their issue, however, remains defense. The Bulls allow over 24 points per game and are particularly vulnerable against teams that can run efficiently between the tackles. Even so, their home-field advantage has mattered — they are undefeated in their last five games played in Tampa and are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. The matchup likely comes down to whether South Florida can continue to score at their usual pace or whether UTSA can slow the tempo enough to get the Bulls out of rhythm. Based on trends, styles, and current form, this feels like a game where South Florida’s athleticism and home energy create the difference late.
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: Head to Head
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11/17/23
|
@UTSA
|
UTSA 49-21
|
UTSA-14.0
|
O66.5
|
UTSA-950
|
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: UTSA Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/25/25
|
@MEM
|
L 34-31
|
W+3.5
|
U69.5
|
L+126
|
|
10/18/25
|
FAU
|
W 48-13
|
W-20.5
|
U70.5
|
W-1800
|
|
10/10/25
|
@NTX
|
W 63-36
|
W+2.5
|
O61.5
|
W-118
|
|
10/03/25
|
CHA
|
W 54-26
|
W-26.5
|
O53.5
|
W-4500
|
|
9/20/25
|
SCS
|
W 63-14
|
W-27.5
|
O56.5
|
W-4500
|
|
9/13/25
|
@MFL
|
L 49-12
|
L+18.5
|
O53.5
|
L+500
|
|
9/06/25
|
@FLA
|
W 18-16
|
W+18.5
|
U52.5
|
W+660
|
|
8/28/25
|
BOISE
|
W 34-7
|
W+10.0
|
U63.5
|
W+260
|
|
12/24/24
|
|
W 41-39
|
W+2.5
|
O62.5
|
W+112
|
|
11/30/24
|
@RICE
|
L 35-28
|
L-3.5
|
O53.5
|
L-182
|
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: South Florida Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/30/25
|
TUL
|
W 48-26
|
W+5.5
|
O52.5
|
W+164
|
|
10/18/25
|
@NTX
|
L 55-17
|
L+3.5
|
O59.5
|
L+132
|
|
10/11/25
|
RICE
|
W 61-13
|
W-10.5
|
O51.5
|
W-490
|
|
10/04/25
|
@TEM
|
L 27-21
|
L-4.5
|
U56.5
|
L-182
|
|
9/20/25
|
@CSU
|
W 17-16
|
L-4.5
|
U59.5
|
W-176
|
|
9/13/25
|
IW
|
W 48-20
|
W-15.5
|
O61.5
|
W-670
|
|
9/06/25
|
TXST
|
L 43-36
|
L-5.5
|
O65.5
|
L-184
|
|
8/30/25
|
@TXAM
|
L 42-24
|
W+21.5
|
O57.5
|
L+860
|
|
12/23/24
|
CC
|
W 44-15
|
W-9.5
|
O57.5
|
W-330
|
|
11/30/24
|
@ARM
|
L 29-24
|
W+7.5
|
U57.5
|
L+210
|
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: UTSA Offense
Overall
| UTSA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | USF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.00 | 34 | Points Scored | 70 | 24.38 |
| 223.25 | 78 | Passing Yards | 129 | 271.13 |
| 178.88 | 46 | Rushing Yards | 27 | 113.63 |
| 30:57 | 43 | Time on Field | 133 | 34:16 |
| 65.75 | 83 | Number of Plays | 135 | 75.63 |
| 6.12 | 41 | Yards Per Play | 37 | 5.09 |
Scoring
| UTSA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | USF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.00 | 34 | Points Scored | 70 | 24.38 |
| 7.25 | 47 | First Quarter | 84 | 6.00 |
| 12.13 | 12 | Second Quarter | 50 | 6.38 |
| 9.38 | 14 | Third Quarter | 28 | 3.38 |
| 5.25 | 100 | Fourth Quarter | 119 | 8.63 |
Passing
| UTSA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | USF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 223.25 | 78 | Passing Yards | 129 | 271.13 |
| 32.50 | 51 | Pass Attempts | 136 | 41.75 |
| 21.88 | 34 | Pass Completions | 136 | 26.88 |
| 1.25 | 28 | Sacks | 36 | 2.38 |
| 8.50 | 102 | Sack Yards | 90 | 15.38 |
| 10.21 | 120 | Yards Per Pass | 14 | 10.09 |
Rushing
| UTSA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | USF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178.88 | 46 | Rushing Yards | 27 | 113.63 |
| 33.25 | 97 | Rush Attempts | 49 | 33.88 |
| 5.38 | 15 | Yards Per Rush | 25 | 3.35 |
Turn Overs
| UTSA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | USF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | 30 | Interceptions | 18 | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | 121 | Fumbles | 5 | 2.00 |
| 0.38 | 43 | Fumbles Lost | 13 | 0.88 |
| 0.88 | 21 | Total Turnovers | 10 | 2.13 |
| 7.50 | 117 | Penalties | 3 | 8.63 |
| 71.50 | 131 | Penalty Yards | 13 | 66.88 |
Drives & Special Teams
| UTSA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | USF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30:57 | 43 | Time on Field | 133 | 34:16 |
| 65.75 | 83 | Number of Plays | 135 | 75.63 |
| 6.12 | 41 | Yards Per Play | 37 | 5.09 |
| 4.75 | 99 | Punts | 28 | 5.13 |
| 45.21 | 29 | Punt Average | 41 | 41.83 |
| 46.88 | 93 | Return Yards | 60 | 43.38 |
UTSA vs South Florida Prediction: South Florida Offense
Overall
| UTSA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | USF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.25 | 109 | Points Scored | 6 | 40.38 |
| 253.50 | 112 | Passing Yards | 31 | 261.50 |
| 148.13 | 71 | Rushing Yards | 11 | 225.50 |
| 29:02 | 44 | Time on Field | 134 | 25:43 |
| 67.50 | 86 | Number of Plays | 18 | 72.63 |
| 5.95 | 101 | Yards Per Play | 20 | 6.71 |
Scoring
| UTSA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | USF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.25 | 109 | Points Scored | 6 | 40.38 |
| 4.75 | 56 | First Quarter | 38 | 7.63 |
| 6.75 | 61 | Second Quarter | 39 | 10.13 |
| 10.88 | 135 | Third Quarter | 2 | 12.88 |
| 7.88 | 107 | Fourth Quarter | 19 | 9.75 |
Passing
| UTSA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | USF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 253.50 | 112 | Passing Yards | 31 | 261.50 |
| 32.00 | 94 | Pass Attempts | 49 | 32.63 |
| 20.00 | 94 | Pass Completions | 48 | 20.75 |
| 1.75 | 94 | Sacks | 59 | 1.63 |
| 10.88 | 38 | Sack Yards | 75 | 11.38 |
| 12.68 | 114 | Yards Per Pass | 35 | 12.60 |
Rushing
| UTSA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | USF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 148.13 | 71 | Rushing Yards | 11 | 225.50 |
| 35.50 | 73 | Rush Attempts | 27 | 40.00 |
| 4.17 | 76 | Yards Per Rush | 11 | 5.64 |
Turn Overs
| UTSA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | USF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | 56 | Interceptions | 80 | 0.75 |
| 1.38 | 34 | Fumbles | 60 | 1.00 |
| 0.50 | 75 | Fumbles Lost | 96 | 0.63 |
| 1.38 | 59 | Total Turnovers | 88 | 1.38 |
| 7.13 | 32 | Penalties | 87 | 6.63 |
| 65.38 | 21 | Penalty Yards | 107 | 63.38 |
Drives & Special Teams
| UTSA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | USF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29:02 | 44 | Time on Field | 134 | 25:43 |
| 67.50 | 86 | Number of Plays | 18 | 72.63 |
| 5.95 | 101 | Yards Per Play | 20 | 6.71 |
| 5.13 | 29 | Punts | 64 | 3.88 |
| 43.63 | 95 | Punt Average | 64 | 43.26 |
| 73.75 | 110 | Return Yards | 21 | 74.88 |
✅ Our CFB Week 11 Pick: SOUTH FLORIDA
All NFL Week 11 Predictions
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UTSA vs South Florida Prediction and Pick, Week 11, by YouWager.lv.