Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction and Pick, Week 11
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction and Pick, Week 11. Place a bet on this CFB football game with the best odds.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Trends
- The over/under record for Northern Illinois’s previous six games is 1-5.
- In six of the last eight games that Northern Illinois has played, the total has been under.
- In its previous seven games, Northern Illinois has a record of 1-6 against the spread.
- In its last five games versus Toledo, Northern Illinois has a record of 1-4 on the road.
- On the road, Northern Illinois has a record of 0-5 in terms of single-score games.
- When Northern Illinois has played Toledo away from home, they have a record of 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games.
- During its most recent seven games against teams from the Mid-American conference, Northern Illinois has a record of 1-6 against the spread.
- At the end of the month of November, Northern Illinois has a record of 5-1 against the spread.
- There have been five of Northern Illinois’ last six games played in week 11 that have resulted in the total going UNDER.
- Over the past nine games, Toledo has a record of 6-3 against the spread.
- There have been nine out of Toledo’s previous thirteen games against Northern Illinois in which the total has been UNDER.
- In its last 16 games played at home, Toledo has a winning record of 14-2.
- When playing at home versus Northern Illinois, Toledo has a record of 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games.
- Over the course of Toledo’s last seven games against opponents from the Mid-American conference, the total has been under in five of those games.
- In the last nine games that Toledo has played against opponents from the West Division, the team has a winning record of 8-1.
- All four of Toledo’s most recent five games played in November have resulted in the total going UNDER.
- After 14 games played in week 11, Toledo has a record of 4-10 against the spread.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction
Now we have the Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction for both teams.
The matchup between Northern Illinois and Toledo in Week 11 brings together two programs trending in very different directions, especially when it comes to consistency and offensive production. Northern Illinois enters this matchup with a strong history of playing Toledo close, particularly on the road, where they’ve covered the spread in six of their last seven road games against the Rockets. However, recent form paints a much different picture. NIU’s offense has been extremely limited, ranking near the bottom of the nation in scoring and passing yards per game, while leaning heavily on the ground attack to try and slow the pace. The totals trends strongly support a low-scoring affair here as well—five of NIU’s last six Week 11 matchups have gone under, and the majority of meetings between these two programs over the past decade have also trended under the total. On the other side, Toledo has been one of the strongest home teams in the MAC over recent seasons, boasting a 14-2 home record in their last 16 games, though covering the spread at home against NIU has been a challenge. With Toledo playing sound defense and Northern Illinois struggling to generate explosive plays, the strategic focus for both sides will likely revolve around time of possession and converting on key third downs.
For Northern Illinois, the story has been about trying to overcome offensive limitations while leaning heavily on physicality and the run game. Their passing attack is one of the least productive in the country, averaging just over 100 yards through the air per game, ranking 135th nationally. That lack of balance has made long drives difficult to finish and has limited their scoring output to just 13.38 points per game. While the Huskies do run the ball effectively at times—averaging 171.5 yards per game on the ground—they often struggle to open up the field due to the absence of explosive play potential. Defensively, NIU has shown resilience and discipline, particularly against the pass, where they’re allowing just 167.7 yards per game, but their run defense has been more vulnerable. This becomes a major concern against a Toledo offense that is capable of controlling the game on the ground and opening passing lanes through play action. For NIU to be competitive here, they need to force turnovers, dictate tempo, and shorten the game. Anything resembling a shootout plays directly into Toledo’s strengths and would quickly put NIU in catch-up mode, something their offensive structure isn’t built for.
Toledo comes into this matchup with far more offensive versatility and a proven ability to score in bunches. The Rockets are averaging 31.75 points per game while producing over 250 passing yards and 180 rushing yards per contest. Their offense is balanced, efficient, and able to stretch defenses horizontally and vertically. Against an NIU defense that has struggled at times to contain the run, expect Toledo to establish the ground game early and use that to open up deep shots in the passing game. Defensively, Toledo has been outstanding, holding opponents to just 16 points per game and ranking inside the top five nationally in passing yards allowed. Their ability to pressure opposing offenses, force long down-and-distance situations, and close off explosive plays has been a defining advantage throughout the season. At home, where Toledo has been dominant, that defensive edge only increases. The primary challenge for the Rockets will be sustaining efficiency and avoiding mistakes, especially in a game that projects to be slower-paced. If Toledo plays clean football, their balance on both sides of the ball gives them a significant advantage.
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Head to Head
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/19/24
|
@NIL
|
TOL 13-6
|
NIL-1.0
|
U45.5
|
NIL-118
|
|
9/30/23
|
@TOL
|
TOL 35-33
|
TOL-13.0
|
O50
|
TOL-670
|
|
10/08/22
|
@NIL
|
TOL 52-32
|
NIL+5.5
|
O59.5
|
NIL+160
|
|
10/09/21
|
@TOL
|
NIL 22-20
|
TOL-12.5
|
U52.5
|
TOL-526
|
|
12/05/20
|
@NIL
|
TOL 41-24
|
NIL+9.5
|
O56
|
NIL+275
|
|
11/13/19
|
@TOL
|
NIL 31-28
|
TOL-2.5
|
O54.5
|
TOL-140
|
|
11/07/18
|
@NIL
|
NIL 38-15
|
NL
|
NL
|
NL
|
|
11/02/17
|
@TOL
|
TOL 27-17
|
NL
|
NL
|
NL
|
|
11/09/16
|
@NIL
|
TOL 31-24
|
NL
|
NL
|
NL
|
|
11/03/15
|
@TOL
|
NIL 32-27
|
NL
|
NL
|
NL
|
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Northern Illinois Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/25/25
|
BALL
|
W 21-7
|
W-6.0
|
U41.5
|
W-192
|
|
10/18/25
|
@OHI
|
L 48-21
|
L+12.5
|
O43.5
|
L+390
|
|
10/11/25
|
@EMC
|
L 16-10
|
L+1.5
|
U49.5
|
L-110
|
|
10/04/25
|
MOH
|
L 25-14
|
L+1.5
|
U39.5
|
L+130
|
|
9/27/25
|
SDSU
|
L 6-3
|
L+2.5
|
U43.5
|
L+114
|
|
9/20/25
|
@MSST
|
L 38-10
|
L+21.5
|
U49.5
|
L+1160
|
|
9/05/25
|
@MAR
|
L 20-9
|
W+14.5
|
U48.5
|
L+550
|
|
8/30/25
|
HC
|
W 19-17
|
L-10.5
|
U48.5
|
W-420
|
|
12/23/24
|
@FRE
|
W 28-20
|
W-1.5
|
O42
|
W-125
|
|
11/30/24
|
CMC
|
W 24-16
|
L-13.5
|
U45.5
|
W-580
|
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Toledo Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/25/25
|
@WST
|
L 28-7
|
L-1.5
|
U49.5
|
L+106
|
|
10/18/25
|
KNT
|
W 45-10
|
W-23.5
|
O51.5
|
W-3500
|
|
10/11/25
|
@BGN
|
L 28-23
|
L-7.0
|
O49.5
|
L-345
|
|
9/27/25
|
AKR
|
W 45-3
|
W-21.0
|
U48.5
|
W-2000
|
|
9/20/25
|
@WMC
|
L 14-13
|
L-13.5
|
U51.5
|
L-430
|
|
9/13/25
|
MGN
|
W 60-0
|
W-35.5
|
O50.5
|
W-30000
|
|
9/06/25
|
WKY
|
W 45-21
|
W-4.5
|
O61.5
|
W-196
|
|
8/30/25
|
@KEN
|
L 24-16
|
W+11.5
|
U48.5
|
L+315
|
|
12/26/24
|
PIT
|
W 48-46
|
W+9.5
|
O51.5
|
W+260
|
|
11/26/24
|
@AKR
|
L 21-14
|
L-10.5
|
U48.5
|
L-400
|
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Northern Illinois Offense
Overall
| NIU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | TOL Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.38 | 134 | Points Scored | 10 | 16.00 |
| 103.13 | 135 | Passing Yards | 4 | 142.75 |
| 171.50 | 53 | Rushing Yards | 15 | 94.88 |
| 28:39 | 105 | Time on Field | 31 | 28:30 |
| 61.38 | 128 | Number of Plays | 14 | 60.00 |
| 4.47 | 134 | Yards Per Play | 3 | 3.96 |
Scoring
| NIU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | TOL Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.38 | 134 | Points Scored | 10 | 16.00 |
| 3.75 | 119 | First Quarter | 25 | 3.00 |
| 3.00 | 135 | Second Quarter | 13 | 4.25 |
| 3.25 | 128 | Third Quarter | 5 | 1.63 |
| 3.38 | 129 | Fourth Quarter | 89 | 7.13 |
Passing
| NIU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | TOL Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103.13 | 135 | Passing Yards | 4 | 142.75 |
| 22.75 | 129 | Pass Attempts | 4 | 24.88 |
| 12.63 | 130 | Pass Completions | 2 | 13.13 |
| 1.63 | 58 | Sacks | 95 | 1.75 |
| 10.88 | 77 | Sack Yards | 78 | 13.88 |
| 8.17 | 136 | Yards Per Pass | 44 | 10.88 |
Rushing
| NIU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | TOL Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 171.50 | 53 | Rushing Yards | 15 | 94.88 |
| 38.63 | 35 | Rush Attempts | 70 | 35.13 |
| 4.44 | 58 | Yards Per Rush | 10 | 2.70 |
Turn Overs
| NIU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | TOL Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 77 | Interceptions | 57 | 0.88 |
| 1.25 | 96 | Fumbles | 45 | 1.25 |
| 0.50 | 72 | Fumbles Lost | 29 | 0.75 |
| 1.25 | 74 | Total Turnovers | 35 | 1.63 |
| 4.63 | 18 | Penalties | 124 | 4.63 |
| 38.75 | 16 | Penalty Yards | 126 | 35.88 |
Drives & Special Teams
| NIU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | TOL Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28:39 | 105 | Time on Field | 31 | 28:30 |
| 61.38 | 128 | Number of Plays | 14 | 60.00 |
| 4.47 | 134 | Yards Per Play | 3 | 3.96 |
| 5.50 | 125 | Punts | 1 | 7.13 |
| 39.53 | 125 | Punt Average | 23 | 41.10 |
| 65.13 | 51 | Return Yards | 63 | 44.63 |
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Toledo Offense
Overall
| NIU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | TOL Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.13 | 51 | Points Scored | 48 | 31.75 |
| 167.75 | 15 | Passing Yards | 41 | 253.25 |
| 176.13 | 107 | Rushing Yards | 41 | 184.13 |
| 31:20 | 106 | Time on Field | 35 | 31:12 |
| 67.63 | 87 | Number of Plays | 34 | 70.00 |
| 5.09 | 36 | Yards Per Play | 33 | 6.25 |
Scoring
| NIU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | TOL Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.13 | 51 | Points Scored | 48 | 31.75 |
| 3.38 | 34 | First Quarter | 44 | 7.38 |
| 5.88 | 39 | Second Quarter | 7 | 12.88 |
| 4.75 | 51 | Third Quarter | 53 | 6.88 |
| 8.13 | 113 | Fourth Quarter | 116 | 4.63 |
Passing
| NIU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | TOL Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 167.75 | 15 | Passing Yards | 41 | 253.25 |
| 26.38 | 13 | Pass Attempts | 56 | 32.00 |
| 15.25 | 11 | Pass Completions | 44 | 20.88 |
| 1.50 | 113 | Sacks | 29 | 1.25 |
| 10.50 | 33 | Sack Yards | 94 | 9.88 |
| 11.00 | 53 | Yards Per Pass | 58 | 12.13 |
Rushing
| NIU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | TOL Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 176.13 | 107 | Rushing Yards | 41 | 184.13 |
| 41.25 | 127 | Rush Attempts | 44 | 38.00 |
| 4.27 | 82 | Yards Per Rush | 38 | 4.85 |
Turn Overs
| NIU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | TOL Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | 54 | Interceptions | 81 | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | 79 | Fumbles | 39 | 0.88 |
| 0.25 | 119 | Fumbles Lost | 26 | 0.25 |
| 1.13 | 82 | Total Turnovers | 47 | 1.00 |
| 6.25 | 63 | Penalties | 129 | 7.88 |
| 49.13 | 88 | Penalty Yards | 125 | 69.38 |
Drives & Special Teams
| NIU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | TOL Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31:20 | 106 | Time on Field | 35 | 31:12 |
| 67.63 | 87 | Number of Plays | 34 | 70.00 |
| 5.09 | 36 | Yards Per Play | 33 | 6.25 |
| 4.13 | 86 | Punts | 114 | 5.13 |
| 41.11 | 24 | Punt Average | 115 | 40.49 |
| 53.75 | 86 | Return Yards | 43 | 66.50 |
✅ Our CFB Week 11 Pick: TOLEDO
All NFL Week 11 Predictions
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