Houston vs UCF Prediction and Pick, Week 11
Houston vs UCF Prediction and Pick, Week 11. Place a bet on this CFB football game with the best odds.
Houston vs UCF Prediction: Trends
- The over/under record for Houston’s previous ten games is 7-3.
- In six of Houston’s most recent eight games, the total has been higher than the point spread.
- In its last nine games, Houston has a winning percentage of 7-2.
- In its last nine games versus Central Florida, Houston has a winning percentage of 2-7.
- In four of Houston’s most recent five games played away from home, the total has been above.
- In its last seven games against opponents from the Big 12 conference, Houston has a record of 5-2 against the spread.
- Within the month of November, Houston has a record of 1-7 against the spread.
- The over/under record for Houston’s previous eight games played in week 11 is 2-6.
- In the last six games that Houston has played on a Friday, the team has a winning record of 5-1 against the spread.
- There have been seven of Central Florida’s last ten games in which the total has been UNDER.
- In its last five games, Central Florida has a record of 1-4 against the spread.
- There have been five of Central Florida’s last seven games against Houston in which the total has been UNDER.
- In its previous five games played at home, Central Florida has a winning record of 4-1 against the spread.
- When playing at home versus Houston, Central Florida has a winning record of 4-1 straight up in its last five games.
- Out of its last eight games against opponents from the Big 12 conference, Central Florida has a record of 2-6 against the spread.
- After six games played in November, Central Florida has a record of 1-5 against the spread.
- In five of Central Florida’s most recent five games that have been played on a Friday, the total has been played UNDER.
- Five of Central Florida’s most recent five games that have been played at home on a Friday have resulted in the total going UNDER.
Houston vs UCF Prediction
Now we have the Houston vs UCF Prediction for both teams.
The matchup between Houston and UCF in Week 11 sets up as a compelling clash between two Big 12 programs that have shown flashes of strong football but have struggled to maintain consistency. Houston comes into this one having performed well against the spread in several recent conference games, especially when playing on Fridays, where they’ve posted a notable 5-1 ATS record across their last six Friday matchups. Meanwhile, UCF has historically been dominant at home against the Cougars, winning four of the last five meetings in Orlando. On the totals side, Houston has been trending OVER in many of their road games and recent contests overall, while UCF home games—especially those played on Fridays—have repeatedly leaned UNDER. This creates a bit of a push-pull dynamic in predicting pace and scoring. Beyond the numbers, this game could be decided by which team handles in-game momentum swings better. Houston tends to play their best football early before leveling out in the second half, while UCF has shown late-game scoring bursts. With bowl eligibility and conference position still in play, both teams have plenty to play for, adding even more weight to this Week 11 matchup.
For Houston, the key lies in continuing to find balance offensively. The Cougars come in averaging just under 30 points per game with a relatively even distribution between passing and rushing production. Their passing attack has shown the ability to create explosive plays with strong yards-per-pass numbers, but sustaining drives has been a challenge when the run game stagnates. Houston’s defense has been respectable, holding opponents to just over 21 points per game, but the unit has shown vulnerability late in contests, particularly in the fourth quarter where opponents have been able to score at a higher rate. Houston’s ability to stay disciplined also comes into play—they’ve actually been fairly solid when it comes to not turning the ball over, but penalties have occasionally set them back in key scoring situations. On the road, Houston tends to open offensively and engage in higher-scoring affairs, which suggests they may look to test UCF vertically and force quicker defensive adjustments. If Houston is able to maintain time of possession and avoid drive-stopping mistakes, they can absolutely make this one competitive down to the wire.
UCF enters this matchup with a strong home field advantage and a rushing offense that has the ability to take over games when they find their rhythm. Averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game, the Knights can grind down opposing defenses, especially those that struggle tackling in space—which could become a factor against Houston’s front. However, UCF’s recent form has been inconsistent, particularly when it comes to covering spreads—they are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games and have historically struggled against Big 12 opponents in that regard. The Knights’ defense has been the more dependable side of the ball, allowing under 19 points per game and ranking highly in limiting passing production. If UCF can control early tempo, dominate the time of possession, and avoid turnovers—especially fumbles, which have been a recurring issue—they should be positioned to dictate how this game is played. The question is whether UCF can finish drives and avoid stagnating mid-game, something they’ve struggled with in several of their recent losses. At home, though, the Knights tend to play faster, more confident, and more physical.
Houston vs UCF Prediction: Head to Head
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11/25/23
|
@UCF
|
UCF 27-13
|
UCF-13.0
|
U61.5
|
UCF-525
|
|
10/31/20
|
@HOU
|
UCF 44-21
|
HOU+3.0
|
U81.5
|
HOU+120
|
|
11/02/19
|
@UCF
|
UCF 44-29
|
UCF-22.0
|
O71
|
UCF-1700
|
|
10/29/16
|
@HOU
|
HOU 31-24
|
NL
|
NL
|
NL
|
|
10/24/15
|
@UCF
|
HOU 59-10
|
NL
|
NL
|
NL
|
Houston vs UCF Prediction: Houston Last 10 Games
| Dat | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11/01/25
|
WVU
|
L 45-35
|
L-13.5
|
O50.5
|
L-530
|
|
10/25/25
|
@ASU
|
W 24-16
|
W+7.0
|
U49.5
|
W+245
|
|
10/18/25
|
ARI
|
W 31-28
|
W-1.5
|
O48.5
|
W-120
|
|
10/11/25
|
@OKS
|
W 39-17
|
W-9.5
|
O45.5
|
W-335
|
|
10/04/25
|
TT
|
L 35-11
|
L+8.5
|
U53.5
|
L+285
|
|
9/26/25
|
@ORS
|
W 27-24
|
L-9.5
|
O49.5
|
W-315
|
|
9/12/25
|
COL
|
W 36-20
|
W-2.5
|
O45.5
|
W-128
|
|
9/06/25
|
@RICE
|
W 35-9
|
W-14.5
|
O43.5
|
W-750
|
|
8/28/25
|
SAU
|
W 27-0
|
W-23.5
|
U55.5
|
W-2500
|
|
11/30/24
|
@BYU
|
L 30-18
|
L+11.0
|
O42.5
|
L+315
|
Houston vs UCF Prediction: UCF Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11/01/25
|
@BAY
|
L 30-3
|
L+5.5
|
U56.5
|
L+162
|
|
10/18/25
|
WVU
|
W 45-13
|
W-11.5
|
O53.5
|
W-400
|
|
10/11/25
|
@CIN
|
L 20-11
|
W+9.5
|
U55.5
|
L+265
|
|
10/04/25
|
KAN
|
L 27-20
|
L+4.5
|
U54.5
|
L+152
|
|
9/27/25
|
@KST
|
L 34-20
|
L+5.5
|
O50.5
|
L+162
|
|
9/20/25
|
NC
|
W 34-9
|
W-2.5
|
U52.5
|
W-142
|
|
9/06/25
|
NAT
|
W 68-7
|
W-39.5
|
O49.5
|
W-20000
|
|
8/28/25
|
JVS
|
W 17-10
|
L-17.5
|
U56.5
|
W-800
|
|
11/29/24
|
UTH
|
L 28-14
|
L-6.5
|
U48.5
|
L-280
|
|
11/23/24
|
@WVU
|
L 31-21
|
L-2.5
|
U62.5
|
L-126
|
Houston vs UCF Prediction: Houston Offense
Overall
| HOU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UCF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.44 | 62 | Points Scored | 21 | 18.75 |
| 222.00 | 79 | Passing Yards | 11 | 161.38 |
| 161.33 | 60 | Rushing Yards | 68 | 146.38 |
| 30:53 | 44 | Time on Field | 50 | 29:13 |
| 68.33 | 48 | Number of Plays | 49 | 65.13 |
| 5.61 | 75 | Yards Per Play | 20 | 4.73 |
Scoring
| HOU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UCF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.44 | 62 | Points Scored | 21 | 18.75 |
| 6.00 | 73 | First Quarter | 14 | 2.63 |
| 9.22 | 60 | Second Quarter | 73 | 7.13 |
| 7.11 | 43 | Third Quarter | 53 | 4.88 |
| 6.78 | 70 | Fourth Quarter | 22 | 4.13 |
Passing
| HOU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UCF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 222.00 | 79 | Passing Yards | 11 | 161.38 |
| 27.67 | 101 | Pass Attempts | 19 | 26.88 |
| 17.56 | 96 | Pass Completions | 24 | 16.38 |
| 1.78 | 69 | Sacks | 55 | 2.13 |
| 10.44 | 85 | Sack Yards | 75 | 13.63 |
| 12.65 | 34 | Yards Per Pass | 7 | 9.85 |
Rushing
| HOU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UCF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161.33 | 60 | Rushing Yards | 68 | 146.38 |
| 40.67 | 23 | Rush Attempts | 102 | 38.25 |
| 3.97 | 93 | Yards Per Rush | 50 | 3.83 |
Turn Overs
| HOU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UCF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | 32 | Interceptions | 79 | 0.63 |
| 1.33 | 102 | Fumbles | 54 | 1.13 |
| 0.44 | 48 | Fumbles Lost | 66 | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | 33 | Total Turnovers | 80 | 1.13 |
| 5.33 | 36 | Penalties | 75 | 5.88 |
| 45.67 | 31 | Penalty Yards | 67 | 53.13 |
Drives & Special Teams
| HOU Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UCF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30:53 | 44 | Time on Field | 50 | 29:13 |
| 68.33 | 48 | Number of Plays | 49 | 65.13 |
| 5.61 | 75 | Yards Per Play | 20 | 4.73 |
| 4.22 | 73 | Punts | 39 | 4.88 |
| 44.12 | 49 | Punt Average | 99 | 43.85 |
| 59.89 | 62 | Return Yards | 74 | 49.38 |
Houston vs UCF Prediction: UCF Offense
Overall
| HOU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UCF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.56 | 39 | Points Scored | 74 | 27.25 |
| 204.44 | 49 | Passing Yards | 73 | 226.25 |
| 134.33 | 50 | Rushing Yards | 28 | 191.38 |
| 29:06 | 46 | Time on Field | 49 | 30:46 |
| 67.11 | 81 | Number of Plays | 43 | 68.50 |
| 5.05 | 33 | Yards Per Play | 44 | 6.10 |
Scoring
| HOU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UCF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.56 | 39 | Points Scored | 74 | 27.25 |
| 6.33 | 91 | First Quarter | 41 | 7.38 |
| 4.89 | 19 | Second Quarter | 109 | 6.00 |
| 1.78 | 6 | Third Quarter | 51 | 6.88 |
| 8.56 | 118 | Fourth Quarter | 63 | 7.00 |
Passing
| HOU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UCF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 204.44 | 49 | Passing Yards | 73 | 226.25 |
| 29.78 | 58 | Pass Attempts | 37 | 34.25 |
| 18.33 | 55 | Pass Completions | 40 | 21.00 |
| 2.33 | 39 | Sacks | 32 | 1.38 |
| 14.00 | 80 | Sack Yards | 111 | 7.25 |
| 11.15 | 64 | Yards Per Pass | 102 | 10.77 |
Rushing
| HOU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UCF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134.33 | 50 | Rushing Yards | 28 | 191.38 |
| 37.33 | 89 | Rush Attempts | 84 | 34.25 |
| 3.60 | 35 | Yards Per Rush | 12 | 5.59 |
Turn Overs
| HOU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UCF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | 73 | Interceptions | 67 | 0.75 |
| 2.00 | 4 | Fumbles | 105 | 1.38 |
| 0.33 | 98 | Fumbles Lost | 63 | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | 99 | Total Turnovers | 69 | 1.25 |
| 7.22 | 28 | Penalties | 112 | 7.38 |
| 59.67 | 40 | Penalty Yards | 80 | 57.50 |
Drives & Special Teams
| HOU Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UCF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29:06 | 46 | Time on Field | 49 | 30:46 |
| 67.11 | 81 | Number of Plays | 43 | 68.50 |
| 5.05 | 33 | Yards Per Play | 44 | 6.10 |
| 5.22 | 25 | Punts | 35 | 3.25 |
| 42.91 | 83 | Punt Average | 128 | 39.28 |
| 78.78 | 117 | Return Yards | 53 | 64.88 |
✅ Our CFB Week 11 Pick: UCF
All NFL Week 11 Predictions
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Houston vs UCF Prediction and Pick, Week 11, by YouWager.lv.