What Went Wrong for the 2025 NFL Preseason Favorites? Full Season Breakdown
According to YouWager, the post-draft NFL Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams were made public around the beginning of May of the previous year. Nine months later, the Seahawks, who were projected to win 7.5 games, prevailed over the Patriots, who also won 7.5 games, in the Super Bowl. Not even the possibility of either club making the playoffs, let alone competing in the Super Bowl, was considered a possibility.
The preseason win estimates, on the other hand, are notoriously unpredictable.
In a technical sense, the post-draft win estimates take into account free agency, the draft, coaching changes, and everything else that has occurred since the conclusion of the previous season. On the other hand, and this is of far greater significance, the oddsmakers are attempting to provide odds in which the action from the betting public will remain even on both sides of the bet. In addition, the majority of people who bet on sports feel that the event that is most likely to occur this year is going to be essentially the same as the one that occurred year before.
Take, for example, the post-draft victory forecast from the previous year.
| 2025 AFC Win Projection | 2025 NFC Win Projection | |||
| Division Winners | Division Winners | |||
| Baltimore Ravens* | 11.5 | Philadelphia Eagles* | 11.5 | |
| Buffalo Bills* | 11.5 | Detroit Lions* | 10.5 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs* | 11.5 | San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | |
| Houston Texans* | 9.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers* | 9.5 | |
| Wild Cards | Wild Cards | |||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | Washington Commanders* | 9.5 | |
| LA Chargers* | 9.5 | Green Bay Packers* | 9.5 | |
| Denver Broncos* | 9.5 | LA Rams* | 9.5 | |
| Non-Playoff Teams | Non-Playoff Teams | |||
| Miami Dolphins | 8.5 | Minnesota Vikings* | 8.5 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers* | 8.5 | Chicago Bears | 8.5 | |
| New Engand Patriots | 7.5 | Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | Dallas Cowboys | 7.5 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.5 | Seattle Seahwaks | 7.5 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | |
| NY Jets | 5.5 | Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5 | New Orleans Saints | 6.5 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 4.5 | NY Giants | 5.5 | |
There were six clubs that did not make it into the playoffs despite being preseason favorites to make another trip in the playoffs. Over the course of the past twenty-four years, since the re-alignment of the NFL in 2002, an average of six to seven new teams have made it into the playoffs. This six-team total is completely in line with the average of the previous twenty-four years.
The victory projections, on the other hand, appear to be little more than a repetition of the playoff field from the previous year: twelve of the fourteen companies that participated in the playoffs in 2024 were anticipated to return to the playoffs in 2025.
If this is the case, then why would a sportsbook present such an improbable scenario? mostly due to the fact that they are playing the betting public, which is greatly impacted by recency bias, which is the inclination to believe that trends and patterns that we observe in the recent past will continue to occur in the future. On the other hand, making predictions about the long-term future based on what has occurred in the past is frequently nothing more accurate than tossing a coin.
In the National Football League (NFL), we are aware that fewer than half of the teams in each division are able to repeat as division winners from one year to the next, and that approximately six to seven new teams make it to the playoffs each year on average. This indicates that just fifty percent of the NFL playoff participants from each year make it back to the playoffs the next year. In spite of this, the top teams from the previous season continue to find themselves at the top of every offseason and preseason team ranking, victory projection, and Super Bowl odds list. How come? Recency bias is a phenomenon.
The victory projection for this year is almost identical to the strategy that was taken the previous year, with ten of the fourteen playoff participants from 2025 being anticipated to return to the playoffs in 2026.
| 2026 AFC Win Projection | 2026 NFC Win Projection | |||
| Division Winners | Division Winners | |||
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | Los Angeles Rams* | 11.5 | |
| Buffalo Bills* | 10.5 | Philadelphia Eagles* | 10.5 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers* | 10.5 | Detroit Lions | 10.5 | |
| Houston Texans* | 9.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | |
| Wild Cards | Wild Cards | |||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | Seattle Seahawks* | 10.5 | |
| New England Patriots* | 9.5 | San Francisco 49ers* | 10.5 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars* | 9.5 | Green Bay Packers* | 10.5 | |
| Non-Playoff Teams | Non-Playoff Teams | |||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | |
| Denver Broncos* | 9.5 | Chicago Bears* | 9.5 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers* | 8.5 | Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.5 | Carolina Panthers* | 7.5 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.5 | Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.5 | New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.5 | Washington Commanders | 7.5 | |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | New York Giants | 7.5 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.5 | Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | |
At the beginning of each new season, it always takes us some time to reorganize our mental landscape of the NFL hierarchy. This is because the teams that were considered favorites the previous year, as well as the teams that were considered underachievers, suddenly become successful.
The win-total estimates for the upcoming season are one of the few things that get football fans more excited than they are at this time of year. The reaction to these projections is absolutely predictable.
There is a segment of the fan base that is incensed by the notion that the Cowboys could even come close to achieving the same level of success as the team that finished the previous season with a record of 7-9-1. Another segment of the fan base is equally incensed by the notion that the Cowboys could improve in comparison to the previous season. A third segment of the fan base is unable to comprehend how anyone could possibly see a significant change in either direction.
On the other hand, is it really worth it to get worked up about those anticipated outcomes?
In spite of the fact that it may seem improbable, there is a possibility that the Cowboys (9.5 win projection) will make it into the playoffs this season. On the other hand, there is also a possibility that they will finish in second place in the division following the Commanders. To the extent that they do, it has nothing to do with the team from the previous year and everything to do with the team from this year.
Is there a left tackle somewhere on that roster, does anyone have any idea how to fix the red-zone issues, does anyone feel responsible for fixing the penalties, and is there anything that would make this offense better than it was last year that is not wishful thinking? Have the Cowboys done enough to improve their pass rush? Can the defense cover anybody (like, at all)? Is there a left tackle somewhere on that roster? It is not the team’s position on the league tables in 2025 that will influence the path of the 2026 season; rather, it is the answers to these questions that will determine your future.
By itself, the fact that the Cowboys offense has the potential to be the greatest in the league is sufficient to establish Dallas as a contender for the playoffs. On the other hand, clubs with formidable attacks such as San Francisco and Cincinnati have had a difficult time making the transition in recent years due to injuries or roster flaws on the opposing side of the ball.
As a result, Dallas’s prospects are contingent on the results of the defensive adjustments. Christian Parker, the new coordinator, is a disciple of Vic Fangio, and his overall strategy will be centered on minimizing the number of explosive plays. In order for Parker to make it work, he will need to get the new defensive backs Caleb Downs, Jaleen Thompson, and Cobie Durant to perform at a level that is at least satisfactory, if not exceptional. In the event that the front seven takes a genuine stride forward and is able to support what ought to be a top-10 attack, I won’t appear as foolish for having faith in the Cowboys.
Every year, a team that nobody was considering to be a contender suddenly puts together a couple of wins early in the year, starts playing like a good football team in the middle of the season, and truly becomes a good football team when it clinches a playoff berth late in the season. This happens every year.
Perhaps the Cowboys will be that team in the year 2026.
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