Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction and Pick, Week 12

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction and Pick, Week 12

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction and Pick, Week 12

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction and Pick, Week 12. Place a bet on this CFB football game with the best odds.

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Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction: Trends

  • Over the past seven games, Texas State has a record of 0-7 against the spread.
  • Four of Texas State’s most recent five games have resulted in the total going over.
  • In its last five games, Texas State has a losing record of 0-5 against the spread.
  • In its previous five games played away from home, Texas State has a record of 1-4 against the spread.
  • During their most recent five games against teams from the Sun Belt conference, Texas State had a record of 0-5 against the spread.
  • There have been five out of the previous six games that Texas State has played against opponents from the West Division division in which the total has gone over.
  • Seven out of the seven games that Texas State has played in November have resulted in the total going over.
  • During the 12th week of the season, Texas State had a record of 4-9 against the spread.
  • The Southern Miss Rebels have won all five of their most recent games by a score of 5-0.
  • In its previous six games played at home, Southern Miss has a record of 5-1 against the spread.
  • In its last six games against teams from the Sun Belt conference, Southern Miss has a winning record of 5-1 against those teams.
  • In the nine most recent games that Southern Miss has played against teams from the West Division, the team has a record of 3-6 overall.
  • After seven games played in November, Southern Miss has a record of 1-6 against the spread.
  • Out of the five games that Southern Miss has played in week 12, the total has been over in four of those games.
  • During the last six games that Southern Miss has played as the favorite, the total has gone over in four of those occurrences.

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction

Now we have the Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction for both teams.

Texas State vs Southern Miss in Week 12 sets up as a fascinating Sun Belt clash between two programs heading in opposite directions. Texas State enters this matchup desperate to stop a brutal skid, while Southern Miss looks to continue its late-season surge and maintain its dominance at home. The Bobcats have been plagued by their inability to cover spreads, going 0-7 ATS over their last seven games, and they’ve struggled mightily in Sun Belt play, particularly against West Division opponents. The bright spot for Texas State has been its offense, which ranks in the top 25 nationally in both total and rushing yards. However, their inability to close out games late, coupled with a defense that’s giving up nearly 35 points per contest, has made them one of the more frustrating teams for bettors this season. Southern Miss, on the other hand, is peaking at the right time. The Golden Eagles have covered in five of their last six home games and enter this contest riding a five-game winning streak. Their balance on both sides of the ball, combined with their growing confidence in close games, makes this one a matchup that could define the late-season outlook for both teams.

For Texas State, the numbers tell a story of offensive firepower that’s often undone by defensive lapses and inconsistency. Averaging nearly 35 points per game and over 470 total yards, the Bobcats can light up the scoreboard with a balanced attack led by a rushing unit ranked 14th nationally and a passing game that remains dangerous despite protection issues. The Bobcats’ 6.7 yards per play ranks 20th in the nation, showing their efficiency in moving the ball when in rhythm. However, their Achilles’ heel lies in turnovers and discipline. Ranking near the bottom nationally in fumbles and penalties, Texas State often beats itself before the opponent has to. Their defense has struggled to match that offensive production, giving up an average of 34.8 points per game — among the worst in the country. They’ve also allowed opponents to convert big plays, with both their rushing and passing defense ranking outside the top 90. If the Bobcats can limit mistakes and take advantage of Southern Miss’s occasionally leaky pass coverage, they have the offensive tools to hang around in this one — but the trends and defensive inefficiencies make that a tall order on the road.

Southern Miss, meanwhile, has been one of the more quietly effective teams in the Sun Belt this season. The Golden Eagles’ offense isn’t flashy, but it’s consistent — putting up over 32 points per game with a balanced attack that can control tempo and wear down opponents. Their passing game has been particularly efficient, averaging 258 yards per contest, while the rushing unit chips in over 150 yards to maintain offensive balance. What’s set them apart during this five-game win streak has been their improved defense, especially in limiting explosive plays. Allowing just over 24 points per game, Southern Miss has done an excellent job forcing opponents into long drives and taking advantage of mistakes. Their record against the spread at home (5-1) and within the conference (5-1) shows how well-prepared this team is in front of their fans. Facing a Texas State team that’s reeling, the Golden Eagles have the advantage in form, discipline, and defensive reliability. If they can continue to win the turnover battle and force Texas State into uncomfortable third-down situations, Southern Miss should be able to control this game from start to finish.

✅ Our CFB Week 12 Pick: SOUTHERN MISS

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Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction: Head to Head

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/16/24
TXST 58-3
TXST-26.5
O55.5
TXST-4500
9/30/23
TXST 50-36
USM+7.0
O62.5
USM+195
10/22/22
USM 20-14
TXSTEVEN
U45
TXST+104
9/19/15
USM 56-50
NL
NL
NL

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction: Texas State Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/08/25
L 42-39
L-3.0
O64.5
L-140
10/28/25
L 52-20
L+7.0
O60.5
L+255
10/18/25
L 40-37
L-5.5
O64.5
L-164
10/11/25
L 48-41
L-10.0
O53.5
L-400
10/04/25
L 31-30
L-8.5
U64.5
L-385
9/20/25
W 35-3
W-27.5
U54.5
W-4500
9/13/25
L 34-15
L+13.5
U57.5
L+385
9/06/25
W 43-36
W+5.5
O65.5
W+152
8/30/25
W 52-27
W-14.5
O57.5
W-580
1/03/25
W 30-28
L-7.5
U67.5
W-325

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction: Southern Miss Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/08/25
W 27-21
W-3.5
U57
W-180
10/25/25
W 49-21
W-12.5
O46.5
W-480
10/18/25
W 22-10
W-3.0
U54.5
W-170
10/09/25
W 38-35
W+2.5
O59.5
W+118
9/27/25
W 42-25
W-2.5
O57
W-148
9/20/25
L 30-20
L+3.0
U51.5
L+105
9/13/25
W 38-22
W+5.5
O50.5
W-102
9/06/25
W 38-20
W-9.5
O52.5
W-345
8/30/25
L 34-17
L+15.5
U61.5
L+365
11/30/24
L 52-20
L+15.5
O48.5
L+580

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction: Texas State Offense

Overall

TXST Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank SMISS Defense
34.67 24 Points Scored 70 24.22
265.56 30 Passing Yards 77 226.44
211.67 14 Rushing Yards 94 162.67
28:18 114 Time on Field 119 31:48
71.22 24 Number of Plays 134 75.78
6.70 20 Yards Per Play 43 5.13

Scoring

TXST Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank SMISS Defense
34.67 24 Points Scored 70 24.22
8.67 19 First Quarter 112 7.56
10.11 44 Second Quarter 5 3.33
5.22 88 Third Quarter 84 5.89
9.56 21 Fourth Quarter 100 7.44

Passing

TXST Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank SMISS Defense
265.56 30 Passing Yards 77 226.44
28.89 93 Pass Attempts 123 34.67
19.56 68 Pass Completions 109 20.89
2.22 97 Sacks 31 2.56
13.22 53 Sack Yards 100 16.44
13.58 15 Yards Per Pass 35 10.84

Rushing

TXST Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank SMISS Defense
211.67 14 Rushing Yards 94 162.67
42.33 15 Rush Attempts 128 41.11
5.00 26 Yards Per Rush 61 3.96

Turn Overs

TXST Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank SMISS Defense
0.67 62 Interceptions 1 2.22
1.33 107 Fumbles 80 1.00
0.78 124 Fumbles Lost 63 0.56
1.44 96 Total Turnovers 1 2.78
7.00 103 Penalties 1 8.89
60.22 95 Penalty Yards 5 73.56

Drives & Special Teams

TXST Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank SMISS Defense
28:18 114 Time on Field 119 31:48
71.22 24 Number of Plays 134 75.78
6.70 20 Yards Per Play 43 5.13
3.00 29 Punts 47 4.78
39.86 122 Punt Average 93 43.27
71.89 29 Return Yards 63 46.11

Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction: Southern Miss Offense

Overall

TXST Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank SMISS Offense
34.78 130 Points Scored 45 32.33
239.00 98 Passing Yards 37 258.22
175.33 110 Rushing Yards 74 153.78
31:41 115 Time on Field 117 28:10
70.78 111 Number of Plays 36 69.44
5.85 99 Yards Per Play 54 5.93

Scoring

TXST Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank SMISS Offense
34.78 130 Points Scored 45 32.33
5.67 78 First Quarter 27 8.00
11.78 133 Second Quarter 64 9.11
6.89 107 Third Quarter 48 6.89
8.22 114 Fourth Quarter 37 8.33

Passing

TXST Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank SMISS Offense
239.00 98 Passing Yards 37 258.22
31.00 78 Pass Attempts 68 30.56
20.56 105 Pass Completions 47 20.56
2.11 62 Sacks 56 1.56
13.89 74 Sack Yards 84 10.33
11.63 85 Yards Per Pass 38 12.56

Rushing

TXST Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank SMISS Offense
175.33 110 Rushing Yards 74 153.78
39.78 120 Rush Attempts 34 38.89
4.41 88 Yards Per Rush 92 3.95

Turn Overs

TXST Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank SMISS Offense
0.56 101 Interceptions 60 0.67
0.33 135 Fumbles 31 0.78
0.00 136 Fumbles Lost 30 0.33
0.56 134 Total Turnovers 41 1.00
5.78 82 Penalties 112 7.33
50.44 87 Penalty Yards 100 61.00

Drives & Special Teams

TXST Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank SMISS Offense
31:41 115 Time on Field 117 28:10
70.78 111 Number of Plays 36 69.44
5.85 99 Yards Per Play 54 5.93
3.78 102 Punts 98 4.78
43.97 110 Punt Average 129 38.81
41.11 50 Return Yards 17 77.11

 

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