Jaguars vs Texans Prediction and Pick, Week 10

This AFC South matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans has quietly become one of the most competitive divisional rivalries in the league, and the recent history proves it. These two teams have traded blows, with neither side holding dominance for long, and five of their last seven meetings were decided by one score. Low-scoring games have also been a theme, with the under cashing frequently, due in large part to physical defensive play and the familiarity these teams have with each other’s tendencies. Jacksonville has been inconsistent this season, showing flashes of efficiency and solid time-of-possession control, but also struggling to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Texans continue to evolve into a disciplined and opportunistic team that thrives on limiting mistakes and forcing opponents into uncomfortable situations. This matchup might not have the same national spotlight as some of the flashier AFC games, but it absolutely carries playoff implications as both teams remain firmly in the hunt. Each possession is going to matter, and field position could end up deciding this game more than explosive plays. When these two meet, it’s usually chess, not checkers—and this Week 10 showdown fits that mold perfectly.

For the Jaguars, the key comes down to execution and staying balanced offensively. They’ve shown they can be effective when they spread the ball around and keep a rhythm, with their offensive unit ranking top-5 in total plays per game, which indicates sustained drives and ball control. Their run game has been efficient at times, averaging nearly 4.7 yards per rush, and when they stick with it, the passing attack opens up naturally. However, the issue has been consistency and red zone production. They struggle in the first quarter and often need time to settle in, which can be dangerous against a Houston defense that thrives early and forces opponents to play from behind. Jacksonville’s defense, while strong against the run, has been vulnerable through the air, allowing over 245 passing yards per game. If they allow Houston’s offense to get into a rhythm, they may be forced into more of a shootout than they want. Penalties have also been costly, particularly in key moments, and those discipline mistakes can’t continue in a divisional matchup this tight. Jacksonville has the talent to control the tempo—but only if they avoid self-inflicted setbacks.

Houston enters this matchup with clear confidence and momentum, especially defensively. They’ve been one of the stingiest scoring defenses in the league, holding opponents to under 15 points per game, which is elite by any standard. Their ability to shut down the run and force teams into predictable passing situations has allowed them to create turnovers and dictate pace. Offensively, they’re not flashy, but they are efficient enough when they need to be. Their passing game may not put up big yardage totals, but it’s opportunistic, and they tend to protect the football. The Texans have improved significantly in their situational play as well, especially in the fourth quarter where they’ve been among the league’s best in scoring. Playing at home adds another layer of advantage, as Houston tends to feed off the energy in tight defensive battles. If they can frustrate Jacksonville early and force them to chase the score, Houston’s defensive structure and clock control become extremely difficult to break. This game may come down to patience—and Houston plays patient football better than most teams in the league right now.

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction: Head to Head

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
9/21/25	@JAC	JAC 17-10	JAC-1.5	U46.5	JAC-127
12/01/24	@JAC	HOU 23-20	JAC+6.5	U47	JAC-115
9/29/24	@HOU	HOU 24-20	HOU-3.5	U47.5	HOU-175
11/26/23	@HOU	JAC 24-21	HOU+4.5	U45.5	HOU+165
9/24/23	@JAC	HOU 37-17	JAC-7.0	O45.5	JAC-300
1/01/23	@HOU	JAC 31-3	HOU+1.0	U44	HOU-110
10/09/22	@JAC	HOU 13-6	JAC-3.5	U43.5	JAC-155
12/19/21	@JAC	HOU 30-16	JAC-4.5	P46	JAC-180
9/12/21	@HOU	HOU 37-21	HOU+3.0	O45	HOU+130
11/08/20	@JAC	HOU 27-25	JAC+6.5	O48.5	JAC+250

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
10/26/25	SF	W 26-15	W+1.5	U45.5	WEVEN
10/20/25	@SEA	L 27-19	L+1.5	O44.5	L+102
10/05/25	@BAL	W 44-10	W+7.5	O47.5	W+270
9/28/25	TEN	W 26-0	W-5.5	U44.5	W-218
9/21/25	@JAC	L 17-10	L-1.5	U46.5	L-120
9/15/25	TB	L 20-19	L-1.5	U46.5	L-122
9/07/25	@LAR	L 14-9	L+2.5	U46.5	L+124
1/18/25	@KC	L 23-14	L+8.0	U42	L+360
1/11/25	LAC	W 32-12	W+2.5	O43.5	W+124
1/05/25	@TEN	W 23-14	W-3.0	U45	W-155

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction: Jacksonville Offense

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction: Houston Offense

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction and Pick, Week 10, by YouWager.lv.