Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction Week 5, 2025. Place a bet on this NFL football game with the best odds.
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This Week 5 clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars is one of the most intriguing matchups on the schedule.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction
The betting trends give this game another layer of intrigue. Kansas City has been a reliable cover against Jacksonville, but their offensive inconsistency has led to more UNDER results in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have trended heavily toward lower-scoring home games, a sign that their defense has been dictating tempo. The Chiefs will aim to stretch the field with Mahomes’ arm, while Jacksonville will rely on a grind-it-out style behind their run game. The clash of philosophies makes this one of the more compelling picks of Week 5, with both teams having legitimate arguments for bettors.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Head to Head
| Date | Team | Opp | Close | Result | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2024 | Chiefs | @Jaguars | +2.5 / 40 | Lost 13-26 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Chiefs | @Jaguars | -3.5 / 50.5 | Won 17-9 | Won / Under |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Chiefs | Jaguars | -9.5 / 52 | Won 27-20 | Lost / Under |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Chiefs | Jaguars | -9.5 / 51.5 | Won 27-17 | Won / Under |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Chiefs | @Jaguars | -3.5 / 49 | Won 40-26 | Won / Over |
| Oct 7, 2018 | Chiefs | Jaguars | -3 / 48 | Won 30-14 | Won / Under |
| Nov 6, 2016 | Chiefs | @Jaguars | +7 / 42.5 | Lost 0-0 | Won / Under |
| Sep 8, 2013 | Chiefs | Jaguars | +3.5 / 42.5 | Lost 0-0 | Won / Under |
| Oct 24, 2010 | Chiefs | @Jaguars | +9 / 38.5 | Lost 0-0 | Won / Under |
| Nov 8, 2009 | Chiefs | Jaguars | -7 / 41.5 | Lost 0-0 | Lost / Under |
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Kansas City
The Chiefs bring an eight-game winning streak in this series, but the Jaguars are starting to look like a team capable of flipping the script. Kansas City has leaned heavily on Mahomes’ ability to generate offense in key moments, while their defense has quietly been one of the most consistent units in the league. Historically, Kansas City has controlled this rivalry with timely scoring bursts and defensive takeaways, and they will once again look to assert themselves against an emerging AFC contender.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Kansas City Trends
- The over/under record for Kansas City’s last 18 games is 6-12.
- In four of Kansas City’s most recent six games, the total has been higher than usual.
- Kansas City has a winning record of 15-5 in its previous 20 games.
- After five games versus Jacksonville, Kansas City has a record of 4-1 against the spread.
- In its last eight meetings versus Jacksonville, Kansas City has a perfect undefeated record.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have a record of 12-4 on the road in their last 16 games.
- When Kansas City has played Jacksonville away from home, they have a record of 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
- In the last twenty games that Kansas City has played against an opponent from the American Football Conference, the team has a winning record of 17-3.
- Over the course of the last nine games that Kansas City has played against teams that are members of the American Football Conference South division, the total has been UNDER seven times.
- Six out of the seven games that Kansas City has played in the month of October have seen the total go UNDER.
Kansas City Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9/28/25
|
BAL
|
W 37-20
|
W-1.5
|
O48.5
|
W-122
|
|
9/21/25
|
@NYG
|
W 22-9
|
W-6.5
|
U43.5
|
W-285
|
|
9/14/25
|
PHI
|
L 20-17
|
LEVEN
|
U46.5
|
L-110
|
|
9/05/25
|
@LAC
|
L 27-21
|
L-3.0
|
O45.5
|
L-144
|
|
2/09/25
|
@PHI
|
L 40-22
|
L-1.5
|
O49.5
|
L-130
|
|
1/26/25
|
BUF
|
W 32-29
|
W-1.5
|
O48.5
|
W-120
|
|
1/18/25
|
HOU
|
W 23-14
|
W-8.0
|
U42
|
W-480
|
|
1/05/25
|
@DEN
|
L 38-0
|
L-4.0
|
U46.5
|
L-192
|
|
12/25/24
|
@PIT
|
W 29-10
|
W-4.0
|
U41.5
|
W-290
|
|
12/21/24
|
HOU
|
W 27-19
|
W-4.5
|
U47
|
W-205
|
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Kansas City Offense
Overall
| KC Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | JAC Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.25 | 14 | Points Scored | 5 | 18.00 |
| 221.75 | 12 | Passing Yards | 24 | 233.50 |
| 110.50 | 19 | Rushing Yards | 4 | 82.75 |
| 30:19 | 20 | Time on Field | 4 | 28:00 |
| 63.00 | 13 | Number of Plays | 22 | 62.00 |
| 5.27 | 20 | Yards Per Play | 13 | 5.10 |
Scoring
| KC Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | JAC Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.25 | 14 | Points Scored | 5 | 18.00 |
| 1.50 | 31 | First Quarter | 8 | 3.25 |
| 9.75 | 5 | Second Quarter | 1 | 2.25 |
| 5.75 | 6 | Third Quarter | 24 | 5.50 |
| 7.25 | 14 | Fourth Quarter | 18 | 7.00 |
Passing
| KC Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | JAC Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 221.75 | 12 | Passing Yards | 24 | 233.50 |
| 35.50 | 8 | Pass Attempts | 28 | 39.00 |
| 21.75 | 13 | Pass Completions | 24 | 23.25 |
| 1.75 | 12 | Sacks | 23 | 1.75 |
| 13.00 | 19 | Sack Yards | 13 | 12.50 |
| 10.20 | 16 | Yards Per Pass | 18 | 10.04 |
Rushing
| KC Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | JAC Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110.50 | 19 | Rushing Yards | 4 | 82.75 |
| 25.75 | 19 | Rush Attempts | 2 | 21.25 |
| 4.29 | 19 | Yards Per Rush | 8 | 3.89 |
Turn Overs
| KC Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | JAC Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 5 | Interceptions | 1 | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | 15 | Fumbles | 10 | 1.25 |
| 0.00 | 5 | Fumbles Lost | 3 | 1.00 |
| 0.25 | 2 | Total Turnovers | 1 | 3.25 |
| 7.25 | 15 | Penalties | 31 | 4.75 |
| 60.25 | 19 | Penalty Yards | 27 | 46.00 |
Drives & Special Teams
| KC Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | JAC Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30:19 | 20 | Time on Field | 4 | 28:00 |
| 63.00 | 13 | Number of Plays | 22 | 62.00 |
| 5.27 | 20 | Yards Per Play | 13 | 5.10 |
| 2.50 | 2 | Punts | 22 | 3.25 |
| 46.99 | 23 | Punt Average | 10 | 46.45 |
| 132.00 | 16 | Return Yards | 4 | 95.50 |
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Jacksonville
For Jacksonville, this game is about proving they belong in the same conversation as the AFC’s elite. Their offense has thrived on balance, with a strong rushing attack complementing Lawrence’s steady passing numbers. Defensively, they are one of the toughest teams to run against, and that could force Kansas City into a more predictable passing approach. Jacksonville’s ability to control time of possession and finish drives in the red zone will be crucial if they want to break through against a Chiefs team that rarely loses in October. The Jaguars’ recent record at home suggests they are finding ways to win close contests, and that confidence may carry over into this high-stakes battle.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Jacksonville Trends
- The over/under record for Jacksonville’s previous six games is 5-1.
- In its last six games, Jacksonville has a winning percentage of 4-2 against the spread.
- In six of Jacksonville’s last seven games versus Kansas City, the total has been higher than the point spread.
- In five of Jacksonville’s last six games played at home, the total has been under for the game.
- When playing at home versus Kansas City, Jacksonville has a record of 1-5 against the spread in its last six games.
- In the last 18 games that Jacksonville has played against an opponent from the American Football Conference, the Jaguars have a winning percentage of 5-13.
- There have been six of Jacksonville’s last seven games against opponents from the American Football Conference West division in which the total has been under the prevailing line.
- After nine games played in the month of October, Jacksonville has a 7-2 overall record.
- During the fifth week of the season, Jacksonville has a record of 3-10 on the road.
Jacksonville Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9/28/25
|
@SF
|
W 26-21
|
W+3.5
|
U48.5
|
W+119
|
|
9/21/25
|
HOU
|
W 17-10
|
W-1.5
|
U46.5
|
W-127
|
|
9/14/25
|
@CIN
|
L 31-27
|
W+5.5
|
O49.5
|
L+198
|
|
9/07/25
|
CAR
|
W 26-10
|
W-2.5
|
U46.5
|
W-161
|
|
1/05/25
|
@IND
|
L 26-23
|
L+1.5
|
O46.5
|
L+102
|
|
12/29/24
|
TEN
|
W 20-13
|
W-4.0
|
U46
|
W-192
|
|
12/22/24
|
@LV
|
L 19-14
|
L-1.0
|
U45.5
|
L-115
|
|
12/15/24
|
NYJ
|
L 32-25
|
L+1.0
|
O46
|
L-105
|
|
12/08/24
|
@TEN
|
W 10-6
|
W-2.0
|
U45
|
W-125
|
|
12/01/24
|
HOU
|
L 23-20
|
L-1.0
|
U47
|
L-115
|
Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction: Jacksonville Offense
Overall
| KC Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | JAC Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.00 | 8 | Points Scored | 17 | 24.00 |
| 185.75 | 8 | Passing Yards | 19 | 204.50 |
| 127.00 | 22 | Rushing Yards | 4 | 144.00 |
| 29:40 | 17 | Time on Field | 5 | 32:00 |
| 58.50 | 9 | Number of Plays | 7 | 65.50 |
| 5.35 | 16 | Yards Per Play | 18 | 5.32 |
Scoring
| KC Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | JAC Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.00 | 8 | Points Scored | 17 | 24.00 |
| 5.25 | 22 | First Quarter | 18 | 4.25 |
| 4.50 | 7 | Second Quarter | 2 | 11.00 |
| 3.25 | 8 | Third Quarter | 15 | 4.75 |
| 6.00 | 11 | Fourth Quarter | 30 | 4.00 |
Passing
| KC Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | JAC Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 185.75 | 8 | Passing Yards | 19 | 204.50 |
| 30.25 | 11 | Pass Attempts | 7 | 36.00 |
| 20.25 | 14 | Pass Completions | 16 | 21.00 |
| 2.50 | 14 | Sacks | 2 | 0.75 |
| 8.75 | 7 | Sack Yards | 30 | 6.75 |
| 9.17 | 10 | Yards Per Pass | 19 | 9.74 |
Rushing
| KC Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | JAC Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 127.00 | 22 | Rushing Yards | 4 | 144.00 |
| 25.75 | 16 | Rush Attempts | 8 | 28.75 |
| 4.93 | 28 | Yards Per Rush | 6 | 5.01 |
Turn Overs
| KC Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | JAC Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 10 | Interceptions | 26 | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | 19 | Fumbles | 7 | 0.50 |
| 0.25 | 22 | Fumbles Lost | 4 | 0.00 |
| 1.00 | 17 | Total Turnovers | 15 | 1.00 |
| 6.25 | 24 | Penalties | 32 | 9.50 |
| 58.75 | 14 | Penalty Yards | 31 | 77.00 |
Drives & Special Teams
| KC Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | JAC Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29:40 | 17 | Time on Field | 5 | 32:00 |
| 58.50 | 9 | Number of Plays | 7 | 65.50 |
| 5.35 | 16 | Yards Per Play | 18 | 5.32 |
| 2.50 | 27 | Punts | 19 | 3.75 |
| 49.10 | 24 | Punt Average | 10 | 49.05 |
| 126.50 | 10 | Return Yards | 20 | 125.25 |
✅ Our Pick: Chiefs ML
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Chiefs vs Jaguars Betting Prediction, NFL Week 5, by YouWager.lv.