Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025. Place a bet on this NFL football game with the best odds.
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The Week 5 clash between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills sets up as another classic AFC East rivalry game with high stakes.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction
While New England has shown resilience against Buffalo in recent meetings, including an outright win last January, the Patriots’ struggles on the road make it hard to trust them here. Orchard Park has become a fortress for the Bills, and with their combination of offensive firepower and defensive stability, Buffalo is built to control this game on both sides of the ball. Unless New England delivers a near-flawless performance, this game looks like another home statement for Buffalo.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Head to Head
| Date | Team | Opp | Close | Result | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | Bills | @Patriots | -3 / 36.5 | Lost 16-23 | Lost / Over |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Bills | Patriots | -14 / 48 | Won 24-21 | Lost / Under |
| Dec 31, 2023 | Bills | Patriots | -14.5 / 40 | Won 27-21 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Bills | @Patriots | -7.5 / 41.5 | Lost 25-29 | Lost / Over |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Bills | Patriots | -8.5 / 44 | Won 35-23 | Won / Over |
| Dec 1, 2022 | Bills | @Patriots | -3.5 / 43.5 | Won 24-10 | Won / Under |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Bills | Patriots | -4.5 / 43 | Won 47-17 | Won / Over |
| Dec 26, 2021 | Bills | @Patriots | – / 43.5 | Won 33-21 | – / Over |
| Dec 6, 2021 | Bills | Patriots | -3 / 40 | Lost 10-14 | Lost / Under |
| Dec 28, 2020 | Bills | @Patriots | -7 / 47 | Won 38-9 | Won / Push |
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: New England
The Patriots are riding some momentum after dismantling the Panthers last week, but they remain inconsistent overall. New England has leaned heavily on its passing attack, ranking ninth in the league, but its run game has been one of the least effective in football. Against Buffalo’s strong defense, especially its league-best pass defense, the Patriots will need to diversify offensively if they want to keep pace.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: New England Trends
- Eight out of New England’s last eleven games have resulted in the total going over.
- Overall, New England has a record of 5-15 in its last 20 games.
- After five games against Buffalo, New England has a record of 4-1 against the spread.
- After eight games against Buffalo, New England has a record of 2-6 on the road.
- In its last nine games played away from home, New England has a winning percentage of 2-7.
- On the road versus Buffalo, New England has a record of 1-5 in terms of strength of victory in its last six games.
- There have been eight out of New England’s last twelve games against opponents from the American Football Conference that have resulted in the total betting going over.
- There have been four out of the previous five games that New England has played against an opponent from the American Football Conference East division in which the total has gone over.
- After five games played in October, New England has a record of 1-4 against the spread.
New England Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9/28/25
|
CAR
|
W 42-13
|
W-3.5
|
O45.5
|
W-175
|
|
9/21/25
|
PIT
|
L 21-14
|
L-1.5
|
U43.5
|
L-122
|
|
9/14/25
|
@MIA
|
W 33-27
|
W+2.5
|
O45.5
|
W+120
|
|
9/07/25
|
LV
|
L 20-13
|
L-1.5
|
U43.5
|
L-120
|
|
1/05/25
|
BUF
|
W 23-16
|
W+3.5
|
U44.5
|
W+150
|
|
12/28/24
|
LAC
|
L 40-7
|
L+2.5
|
O41
|
L+114
|
|
12/22/24
|
@BUF
|
L 24-21
|
W+7.5
|
O44.5
|
L+280
|
|
12/15/24
|
@ARI
|
L 30-17
|
L+3.0
|
O44
|
L+130
|
|
12/01/24
|
IND
|
L 25-24
|
W+2.0
|
O44
|
L+105
|
|
11/24/24
|
@MIA
|
L 34-15
|
L+6.5
|
O45
|
L+215
|
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: New England Offense
Overall
| NE Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | BUF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.00 | 14 | Points Scored | 21 | 23.67 |
| 243.50 | 9 | Passing Yards | 1 | 131.33 |
| 91.00 | 23 | Rushing Yards | 30 | 156.00 |
| 31:55 | 9 | Time on Field | 3 | 25:01 |
| 61.50 | 17 | Number of Plays | 4 | 52.00 |
| 5.44 | 13 | Yards Per Play | 24 | 5.53 |
Scoring
| NE Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | BUF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.00 | 14 | Points Scored | 21 | 23.67 |
| 9.50 | 1 | First Quarter | 7 | 3.33 |
| 3.00 | 30 | Second Quarter | 22 | 9.00 |
| 4.00 | 11 | Third Quarter | 21 | 4.67 |
| 6.50 | 20 | Fourth Quarter | 16 | 6.67 |
Passing
| NE Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | BUF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 243.50 | 9 | Passing Yards | 1 | 131.33 |
| 34.50 | 12 | Pass Attempts | 2 | 25.00 |
| 24.50 | 7 | Pass Completions | 2 | 15.33 |
| 3.50 | 28 | Sacks | 16 | 2.00 |
| 15.00 | 16 | Sack Yards | 16 | 14.67 |
| 9.94 | 16 | Yards Per Pass | 8 | 8.57 |
Rushing
| NE Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | BUF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.00 | 23 | Rushing Yards | 30 | 156.00 |
| 23.50 | 21 | Rush Attempts | 12 | 25.00 |
| 3.87 | 22 | Yards Per Rush | 32 | 6.24 |
Turn Overs
| NE Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | BUF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | 21 | Interceptions | 21 | 0.33 |
| 1.00 | 20 | Fumbles | 3 | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | 11 | Fumbles Lost | 7 | 0.67 |
| 0.50 | 14 | Total Turnovers | 13 | 1.00 |
| 10.50 | 31 | Penalties | 19 | 6.00 |
| 72.50 | 25 | Penalty Yards | 19 | 47.67 |
Drives & Special Teams
| NE Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | BUF Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31:55 | 9 | Time on Field | 3 | 25:01 |
| 61.50 | 17 | Number of Plays | 4 | 52.00 |
| 5.44 | 13 | Yards Per Play | 24 | 5.53 |
| 4.00 | 20 | Punts | 6 | 4.67 |
| 47.53 | 19 | Punt Average | 20 | 49.45 |
| 163.50 | 6 | Return Yards | 31 | 177.33 |
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Buffalo
Buffalo, meanwhile, looks every bit like a contender. The Bills’ offense has been electric, scoring 34 points per game, ranking second in the league, with both their passing and rushing attacks clicking. Their ground game is especially dangerous, averaging 163 yards per contest, which matches up favorably against a Patriots defense ranked bottom three against the run. Combine that with Buffalo’s near-perfect home record and 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven, and it’s clear they enter this matchup with a major advantage.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Buffalo Trends
- Since Buffalo’s last six games, the total has been over in five of those games.
- In its last seven games, Buffalo has a winning record of 6-1 against the spread.
- This is the fourth time in Buffalo’s last five games against New England that the total has gone over.
- At home, Buffalo has a perfect record of 13-0 in its last 13 games.
- When playing at home against New England, Buffalo has a winning record of 5-1 straight up in its last six games.
- In each of Buffalo’s last five games against an opponent from the American Football Conference, the total has been over in four of those games.
- In five of Buffalo’s last seven games against opponents from the American Football Conference East division, the total has turned out to be higher than the point spread.
- After six games played on Sundays, Buffalo has a record of 4-2 against the spread.
- Over the past five Sunday games that Buffalo has played at home, the team has a record of 4-1 against the spread.
Buffalo Last 10 Games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9/28/25
|
NO
|
W 31-19
|
L-12.5
|
O46.5
|
W-650
|
|
9/18/25
|
MIA
|
W 31-21
|
W-8.5
|
O48.5
|
W-380
|
|
9/14/25
|
@NYJ
|
W 30-10
|
W-8.5
|
U44.5
|
W-380
|
|
9/07/25
|
BAL
|
W 41-40
|
L-1.5
|
O51.5
|
W-122
|
|
1/26/25
|
@KC
|
L 32-29
|
L+1.5
|
O48.5
|
L+102
|
|
1/19/25
|
BAL
|
W 27-25
|
W-1.0
|
O51.5
|
W-117
|
|
1/12/25
|
DEN
|
W 31-7
|
W-8.5
|
U47.5
|
W-440
|
|
1/05/25
|
@NE
|
L 23-16
|
L-3.5
|
U44.5
|
L-180
|
|
12/29/24
|
NYJ
|
W 40-14
|
W-2.5
|
O45.5
|
W-135
|
|
12/22/24
|
NE
|
W 24-21
|
L-7.5
|
O44.5
|
W-355
|
Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Buffalo Offense
Overall
| NE Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | BUF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.50 | 20 | Points Scored | 2 | 34.00 |
| 315.00 | 32 | Passing Yards | 7 | 257.00 |
| 58.50 | 3 | Rushing Yards | 2 | 163.00 |
| 28:05 | 9 | Time on Field | 3 | 34:59 |
| 57.00 | 9 | Number of Plays | 5 | 68.67 |
| 6.55 | 31 | Yards Per Play | 5 | 6.12 |
Scoring
| NE Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | BUF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.50 | 20 | Points Scored | 2 | 34.00 |
| 3.50 | 13 | First Quarter | 4 | 8.00 |
| 7.00 | 18 | Second Quarter | 14 | 7.67 |
| 8.00 | 32 | Third Quarter | 6 | 5.33 |
| 5.00 | 11 | Fourth Quarter | 2 | 13.00 |
Passing
| NE Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | BUF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 315.00 | 32 | Passing Yards | 7 | 257.00 |
| 33.00 | 18 | Pass Attempts | 16 | 33.67 |
| 25.00 | 27 | Pass Completions | 11 | 23.33 |
| 4.50 | 1 | Sacks | 5 | 1.33 |
| 23.50 | 30 | Sack Yards | 30 | 5.33 |
| 12.60 | 30 | Yards Per Pass | 8 | 11.01 |
Rushing
| NE Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | BUF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.50 | 3 | Rushing Yards | 2 | 163.00 |
| 19.50 | 3 | Rush Attempts | 3 | 33.67 |
| 3.00 | 3 | Yards Per Rush | 9 | 4.84 |
Turn Overs
| NE Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | BUF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | 9 | Interceptions | 3 | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 32 | Fumbles | 23 | 1.33 |
| 0.00 | 29 | Fumbles Lost | 2 | 0.00 |
| 1.00 | 19 | Total Turnovers | 1 | 0.00 |
| 9.50 | 7 | Penalties | 3 | 4.67 |
| 73.00 | 7 | Penalty Yards | 10 | 47.33 |
Drives & Special Teams
| NE Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | BUF Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28:05 | 9 | Time on Field | 3 | 34:59 |
| 57.00 | 9 | Number of Plays | 5 | 68.67 |
| 6.55 | 31 | Yards Per Play | 5 | 6.12 |
| 3.50 | 19 | Punts | 8 | 3.00 |
| 48.14 | 15 | Punt Average | 30 | 42.54 |
| 165.00 | 29 | Return Yards | 13 | 132.00 |
Our Pick: BUFFALO BILLS
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Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025, by YouWager.lv.