Virginia vs Duke Prediction and Pick, Week 12

Virginia vs Duke Prediction and Pick, Week 12

Virginia vs Duke Prediction and Pick, Week 12. Place a bet on this CFB football game with the best odds.

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Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Trends

  • Five of Virginia’s most recent five games have resulted in the total going UNDER.
  • In its last eight games, Virginia has a 7-1 SEC record.
  • The over/under record for Virginia’s previous nine games versus Duke is 8-1.
  • In its last nine meetings versus Duke, Virginia has a combined record of 8-1.
  • In five of Virginia’s last seven games played away from home, the total has been under the money.
  • In the last 11 games that Virginia has played against Duke on the road, the team has a record of 3-8 against it.
  • In its last six games against teams from the Atlantic Coast conference, Virginia has a winning record of 5-1 versus the opponent.
  • Against the spread, Virginia has a record of 1-4 in its previous five games against teams that are members of the Coastal Division.
  • All five of Virginia’s most recent six games played in November have resulted in the total going UNDER.
  • Over the past six games, Duke has a record of 4-2 against the spread.
  • Eight of Duke’s most recent ten games have resulted in the total going over.
  • In its last six games, Duke has a winning record of 4-2 against the spread.
  • Five of Duke’s previous six games played at home have resulted in the total going over.
  • When playing at home against Virginia, Duke has a record of 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 games.
  • In its last eight games against opponents from the Atlantic Coast conference, Duke has a record of 7-1 against the spread.
  • The Duke Blue Devils have a win-loss record of 6-14 in their previous 20 games versus teams that are members of the Coastal Division.
  • The Duke Blue Devils have a winning record of 4-1 in their previous five games played in the month of November.
  • Seven of the eight games that Duke has played in week 12 have resulted in the total going over.

Virginia vs Duke Prediction

Now we have the Virginia vs Duke Prediction for both teams.

The Week 12 matchup between Virginia and Duke promises to be one of the most intriguing games on the ACC slate. Both teams enter this contest looking to solidify bowl positioning, and the clash of styles makes this one even more compelling for bettors. Virginia has leaned on its balanced offensive approach and improving defense to quietly stack wins down the stretch, while Duke has been one of the more unpredictable teams in the ACC—capable of explosive scoring bursts but also prone to defensive lapses. Historically, Virginia has had the upper hand in this series, winning eight of the last nine meetings overall, including a 30-27 victory in 2023. However, Duke has been formidable at home against the Cavaliers, going 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games in Durham. The betting trends are also interesting: five of Virginia’s last six November games have gone under the total, while Duke games tend to lean the other way, with eight of their last ten going over. This clash of trends makes the total a tough call, but all signs point to another tight, high-stakes battle between two ACC programs moving in opposite directions.

For Virginia, the Cavaliers have been quietly one of the ACC’s more complete teams in the second half of the season. Their offense ranks inside the top 30 nationally in scoring at 33.7 points per game, driven by a run-pass balance that keeps defenses off guard. The Cavaliers average 243.5 passing yards and 184.3 rushing yards per contest, ranking 54th and 38th nationally in those categories, respectively. Quarterback play has been steady, and the offensive line has done just enough to keep the playbook open, as Virginia averages 73 plays per game—15th in the country. On defense, Virginia has shown steady improvement, holding opponents to just 21.6 points per game. The unit has been particularly strong against the run, allowing only 114.6 yards per game, which could be a critical edge against Duke’s ground attack. The Cavaliers’ biggest challenge will be limiting Duke’s big-play potential through the air. If they can control time of possession as they have most of the season (31:11 per game), they’ll have a strong chance to grind out another tough road win.

Duke, on the other hand, has been an offensive juggernaut this year, averaging 35.2 points per game and ranking fourth nationally in passing yards at 312.9 per contest. The Blue Devils’ passing attack has been their lifeblood, and they’ve proven they can move the ball on nearly anyone. However, while Duke’s offensive fireworks are impressive, their defense remains a liability. The Blue Devils rank 99th in points allowed (29.1 per game) and 128th against the pass, surrendering nearly 270 yards through the air each week. That’s a troubling matchup against a Virginia offense that thrives on balance and efficiency. Still, Duke’s home-field advantage has been a real factor—they’ve gone 4-2 against the spread in their last six and tend to thrive under the lights in Durham. The key for Duke will be protecting the football and limiting penalties, as they rank 125th in penalty yards and 108th in penalties per game. If the Blue Devils can stay disciplined and keep Virginia’s offense off the field, they can push this one into a shootout where their aerial attack can take over.

Our CFB Week 12 Pick: VIRGINIA

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Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Head to Head

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/18/23
UVA 30-27
UVA+4.0
O48.5
UVA+155
10/01/22
DUKE 38-17
DUK-1.0
U57
DUK-125
10/16/21
UVA 48-0
UVA-10.5
U69.5
UVA-400
9/26/20
UVA 38-20
UVA-4.0
O45.5
UVA-200
10/19/19
UVA 48-14
UVA-3.5
O45.5
UVA-170
10/20/18
UVA 28-14
NL
NL
NL
10/07/17
UVA 28-21
NL
NL
NL
10/01/16
UVA 34-20
NL
NL
NL
11/21/15
UVA 42-34
NL
NL
NL

Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Virginia Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/08/25
L 16-9
L-8.5
U48.5
L-310
11/01/25
W 31-21
W-8.5
U53.5
W-315
10/25/25
W 17-16
L-10.0
U51.5
W-450
10/18/25
W 22-20
L-16.5
U54.5
W-850
10/04/25
W 30-27
W+7.5
U59.5
W+180
9/26/25
W 46-38
W+9.5
O51.5
W+260
9/20/25
W 48-20
W-14.5
O48.5
W-780
9/13/25
W 55-16
W-26.5
O51.5
W-4500
9/06/25
L 35-31
L+2.5
O51.5
L+106
8/30/25
W 48-7
W-13.5
U57.5
W-480

Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Duke Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/08/25
L 37-34
L-13.5
O61
L-550
11/01/25
W 46-45
W+2.5
O54.5
W+112
10/18/25
L 27-18
L-1.5
U54.5
L-110
10/04/25
W 45-21
W-1.5
O51.5
W-110
9/27/25
W 38-3
W-1.5
U55.5
W-118
9/20/25
W 45-33
W-3.0
O57.5
W-130
9/13/25
L 34-27
L+1.5
O52.5
L+146
9/06/25
L 45-19
L+1.5
O49.5
L-108
8/28/25
W 45-17
L-29.5
O47.5
W-20000
1/02/25
L 52-20
L+14.0
O53.5
L+410

Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Virginia Offense

Overall

UVA Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank DUKE Defense
33.70 27 Points Scored 99 29.11
243.50 54 Passing Yards 128 268.56
184.30 38 Rushing Yards 51 137.89
31:11 34 Time on Field 117 31:43
73.20 15 Number of Plays 67 66.22
5.84 58 Yards Per Play 116 6.14

Scoring

UVA Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank DUKE Defense
33.70 27 Points Scored 99 29.11
9.30 12 First Quarter 113 7.67
10.40 38 Second Quarter 95 8.67
7.10 40 Third Quarter 50 4.78
4.50 120 Fourth Quarter 110 8.00

Passing

UVA Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank DUKE Defense
243.50 54 Passing Yards 128 268.56
34.30 34 Pass Attempts 76 31.00
22.40 31 Pass Completions 113 21.22
1.50 48 Sacks 47 2.22
10.10 90 Sack Yards 60 12.89
10.87 96 Yards Per Pass 115 12.65

Rushing

UVA Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank DUKE Defense
184.30 38 Rushing Yards 51 137.89
38.90 32 Rush Attempts 68 35.22
4.74 42 Yards Per Rush 54 3.91

Turn Overs

UVA Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank DUKE Defense
0.60 46 Interceptions 49 0.89
1.30 99 Fumbles 43 1.22
0.30 22 Fumbles Lost 56 0.56
0.90 29 Total Turnovers 41 1.44
5.30 34 Penalties 64 6.11
43.80 26 Penalty Yards 48 56.56

Drives & Special Teams

UVA Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank DUKE Defense
31:11 34 Time on Field 117 31:43
73.20 15 Number of Plays 67 66.22
5.84 58 Yards Per Play 116 6.14
3.80 60 Punts 124 3.22
47.69 6 Punt Average 130 45.73
70.70 31 Return Yards 24 34.11

Virginia vs Duke Prediction: Duke Offense

Overall

UVA Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank DUKE Offense
21.60 40 Points Scored 22 35.22
215.00 62 Passing Yards 4 312.89
114.60 30 Rushing Yards 88 139.56
28:30 31 Time on Field 118 27:55
64.80 43 Number of Plays 71 66.33
5.09 36 Yards Per Play 16 6.82

Scoring

UVA Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank DUKE Offense
21.60 40 Points Scored 22 35.22
2.80 20 First Quarter 60 6.44
8.60 93 Second Quarter 25 11.00
6.10 91 Third Quarter 28 8.00
2.90 6 Fourth Quarter 15 9.78

Passing

UVA Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank DUKE Offense
215.00 62 Passing Yards 4 312.89
31.30 83 Pass Attempts 19 36.33
19.20 74 Pass Completions 8 25.11
2.30 44 Sacks 74 1.89
16.50 101 Sack Yards 45 14.33
11.20 64 Yards Per Pass 44 12.46

Rushing

UVA Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank DUKE Offense
114.60 30 Rushing Yards 88 139.56
33.50 47 Rush Attempts 126 30.00
3.42 27 Yards Per Rush 48 4.65

Turn Overs

UVA Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank DUKE Offense
1.00 42 Interceptions 14 0.44
1.30 40 Fumbles 113 1.44
0.60 50 Fumbles Lost 118 0.78
1.60 34 Total Turnovers 65 1.22
4.50 129 Penalties 108 7.22
39.70 117 Penalty Yards 125 69.33

Drives & Special Teams

UVA Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank DUKE Offense
28:30 31 Time on Field 118 27:55
64.80 43 Number of Plays 71 66.33
5.09 36 Yards Per Play 16 6.82
5.60 12 Punts 26 2.89
39.75 11 Punt Average 86 42.23
58.10 91 Return Yards 15 79.67

 

All NFL Week 12 Predictions

 

 

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