Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction and Pick, Week 12

The Week 12 matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan State Spartans brings two Big Ten programs facing very different realities but equally desperate for a statement win. Penn State enters this contest having stumbled through a frustrating stretch, losing six straight against the spread and struggling to find consistency on either side of the ball. Despite flashes of offensive potential, the Nittany Lions have fallen short in key moments, unable to translate early leads into sustained success. The over has been a consistent trend in Penn State games, hitting in six of their last seven, largely due to a defense that hasn’t been able to close out drives and an offense forced to play catch-up. Meanwhile, Michigan State has been slightly more competitive from a betting perspective, going 5-1 ATS in their last six, but the Spartans’ own issues with execution and defensive lapses continue to define their season. With both teams trending toward high-scoring contests when they meet — five of the last six at Michigan State have gone over the total — bettors could see another explosive matchup between two proud programs trying to salvage momentum late in the year.

For Penn State, this game represents a chance to stop the bleeding and reestablish itself as one of the Big Ten’s top-tier teams. Despite a 4-1 head-to-head advantage over Michigan State in their last five meetings, the Nittany Lions have struggled to impose their will offensively this season. The passing game has been a disappointment, ranking just 109th nationally at 184.7 yards per game, while the rushing attack has been inconsistent behind an offensive line that has failed to create space against physical defenses. Penn State’s 30.6 points per game is deceptive — much of that production has come against weaker non-conference opponents. They’ve averaged only 21 points per game in their last three losses. Still, the defense has the talent to turn the tide. Ranked 15th nationally in passing yards allowed (172.1), the secondary should be able to limit Michigan State’s air attack. The key for Penn State will be avoiding turnovers and sustaining drives — something they’ve struggled with, ranking 110th in plays per game and 113th in time of possession. If they can get back to their early-season balance and control the tempo, they have the tools to get back in the win column.

Michigan State, on the other hand, comes into this game looking to build off their limited bright spots. Though their record doesn’t reflect it, the Spartans have been quietly covering spreads and showing signs of competitiveness under pressure. Offensively, Michigan State averages 25.6 points per game and 221.9 passing yards, but the real concern lies in the trenches. Their rushing offense ranks 103rd nationally, and they’ve struggled to establish any consistency on the ground, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Against a Penn State front that allows 153.7 rushing yards per game, however, the Spartans could find some opportunities to move the chains. Defensively, Michigan State gives up 31.4 points per game and has had a hard time getting off the field — a dangerous combination against a Penn State offense that still boasts playmakers capable of breaking big plays late. If Michigan State can limit penalties and avoid the costly turnovers that have plagued them all year, they could hang around in this one, especially at home. However, their defense’s inability to stop the run or the deep ball could once again be their undoing.