Oklahoma vs Alabama Prediction and Pick, Week 12

The Week 12 matchup between Oklahoma and Alabama is shaping up as one of the premier showdowns of the college football season, bringing together two programs with elite pedigrees and national title aspirations. Both teams enter this clash with plenty on the line, and the betting trends show just how evenly matched they’ve been against the spread. Alabama has been one of the most consistent bets in the country, covering in six of its last eight games, while Oklahoma has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine contests. Recent meetings also tilt slightly in the Sooners’ favor, as Oklahoma has gone 4-1 straight up in the last five games against Alabama — a stat that might surprise casual fans. Both programs have showcased dominant defenses and opportunistic offenses this season, leading to a fascinating battle of contrasting strengths. The total trends lean heavily toward the UNDER for both sides, which suggests a defensive war could be brewing in Tuscaloosa. With both teams ranked in the top 15 nationally in defensive metrics, this game could very well be decided by red-zone efficiency and turnovers rather than offensive fireworks.

For Oklahoma, this game represents a true test of their balance and discipline on both sides of the ball. The Sooners have been carried by one of the nation’s stingiest defenses, allowing just 14.1 points per game and ranking seventh nationally in that category. Their front seven has been exceptional at stopping the run, surrendering just 82.4 rushing yards per game and ranking fourth in the country. That strength will be crucial against an Alabama team that thrives on physicality and ball control. Offensively, Oklahoma has been steady but not spectacular — averaging 28.9 points per game and leaning more on efficiency than explosiveness. Quarterback play has been serviceable, with 236 passing yards per game, but the running game has struggled at times, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. The Sooners’ offensive line has been inconsistent, allowing too much pressure against elite fronts, which could be a concern against Alabama’s pass rush. However, Oklahoma’s ability to win games on the road (5-2 ATS away from home) and control tempo through mistake-free football makes them a legitimate threat to pull off another upset if their defense can limit Alabama’s big plays.

Alabama, on the other hand, continues to remind everyone why it’s a perennial championship contender. The Crimson Tide have covered the spread in every home game this season and boast one of the most balanced teams in the nation. Their offense is scoring 32.8 points per game behind a potent passing attack that ranks 14th nationally at 291.2 yards per contest. Quarterback efficiency has been key, as Alabama’s offense has shown the ability to stretch the field while protecting the football, ranking among the nation’s best in turnover margin. On the defensive side, Alabama remains elite, allowing just 17.2 points per game and holding opponents to under 165 passing yards on average. They’ve been particularly dominant in the first half, setting the tone early and forcing teams to play catch-up. That combination of suffocating defense and efficient offense makes Alabama a tough out at home, especially considering their 11-1 ATS record in November games. With their depth, coaching, and consistency, Alabama will look to control the trenches and wear Oklahoma down across four quarters.