Bills vs Dolphins Prediction and Pick, Week 10

The Week 10 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins once again comes with heavy implications for the AFC East standings, momentum, and playoff positioning. These teams have developed one of the most consistently competitive and emotionally charged rivalries in the conference, and each meeting has brought high stakes and high intensity. Looking at their head-to-head history over the last several seasons, Buffalo has largely controlled this series, winning seven of the last eight meetings, including several decisive victories in Orchard Park. But it’s not just the outcomes that stand out — the styles of these matchups have showcased two contrasting football philosophies: Buffalo’s physicality, ball control, and efficiency versus Miami’s speed, spacing, and explosive-play approach. What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is that both teams come into Week 10 with storylines that shape how they need to play to win. Buffalo has leaned into a balanced offensive attack that leads the league in rushing yards per game, while Miami has been searching for consistency, still possessing the explosiveness to break games open but struggling in the trenches. That combination sets up a game where tempo, possession, and adjustments could determine the outcome more than pure talent alone.

For Buffalo, the identity this season has been about controlling pace and physically imposing themselves at the line of scrimmage. The Bills rank first in rushing yards per game, first in time of possession, and fourth in points scored — a formula that has allowed them to wear down defenses while minimizing mistakes. They aren’t relying solely on Josh Allen to carry the offense, which has made the passing attack more efficient, ranking near the top of the league in yards per play and explosive pass rate. Defensively, Buffalo has been outstanding against the pass, ranking second in passing yards allowed, which bodes well against a Miami offense that depends heavily on timing and rhythm through the air. The main concern for the Bills is their run defense, which has been one of the weakest in the league, allowing 5.75 yards per carry. However, Miami’s rushing offense has not been consistent enough to fully exploit this weakness, ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing production. If Buffalo controls possession the way they typically do — averaging over 33 minutes per game — they can dictate flow, limit big plays, and force Miami to play from behind, where their mistakes tend to compound.

Miami enters this matchup looking to stabilize after a stretch of uneven performances. The Dolphins still possess one of the league’s most dynamic offensive ceilings, but the production has not matched the potential through their recent outings. They’ve struggled to run the ball effectively, ranking 29th in rushing yards per game, and that lack of balance has put increased pressure on the passing attack to carry the load. Against a Buffalo defense that ranks second against the pass, that’s a problematic matchup. Defensively, the Dolphins have been vulnerable to exactly what Buffalo does best. Miami ranks 32nd in run defense, giving up 159 rushing yards per game, and they’ve allowed opponents to consistently stay on schedule, maintain long drives, and wear down their front seven. Miami is at its best when it can dictate tempo, score early, and force opponents into catch-up mode — but against a Buffalo team that leads the league in ball control and fourth-quarter scoring, that scenario becomes harder to script. The Dolphins need chunk plays to win, but Buffalo has a defensive structure built to limit them. Unless Miami dramatically improves defensively at the point of attack, this matchup tilts toward Buffalo’s ability to grind the game in their favor.

Bills vs Dolphins Prediction: Head to Head

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
9/18/25	@BUF	BUF 31-21	BUF-8.5	O48.5	BUF-380
11/03/24	@BUF	BUF 30-27	BUF-3.0	O51	BUF-155
9/12/24	@MIA	BUF 31-10	MIA-1.0	U51.5	MIA-108
1/07/24	@MIA	BUF 21-14	MIA-1.5	U49	MIA-120
10/01/23	@BUF	BUF 48-20	BUF-3.5	O49.5	BUF-175
1/15/23	@BUF	BUF 34-31	BUF-10.5	O44.5	BUF-590
12/17/22	@BUF	BUF 32-29	BUF-7.5	O47.5	BUF-235
9/25/22	@MIA	MIA 21-19	MIA+4.0	U51	MIA+145
10/31/21	@BUF	BUF 26-11	BUF-7.0	U49	BUF-650
9/19/21	@MIA	BUF 35-0	MIA+3.5	U47	MIA+150

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
10/26/25	@ATL	W 34-10	W+1.5	U46.5	WEVEN
10/19/25	@CLE	L 31-6	L-1.5	U43.5	L-122
10/12/25	LAC	L 29-27	L+1.5	O45.5	L+102
10/05/25	@CAR	L 27-24	L-1.5	O46.5	L-120
9/29/25	NYJ	W 27-21	W-5.5	O44.5	W-230
9/18/25	@BUF	L 31-21	L+8.5	O48.5	L+300
9/14/25	NE	L 33-27	L-2.5	O45.5	L-142
9/07/25	@IND	L 33-8	L+1.5	U45.5	L-104
1/05/25	@NYJ	L 32-20	L+1.5	O47	L+102
12/29/24	@CLE	W 20-3	W+2.0	U44.5	W+110

Bills vs Dolphins Prediction: Buffalo Offense

Bills vs Dolphins Prediction: Miami Offense

Bills vs Dolphins Prediction and Pick, Week 10, by YouWager.lv.