Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025. Place a bet on this NFL football game with the best odds.

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The Week 5 clash between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills sets up as another classic AFC East rivalry game with high stakes.

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Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction

While New England has shown resilience against Buffalo in recent meetings, including an outright win last January, the Patriots’ struggles on the road make it hard to trust them here. Orchard Park has become a fortress for the Bills, and with their combination of offensive firepower and defensive stability, Buffalo is built to control this game on both sides of the ball. Unless New England delivers a near-flawless performance, this game looks like another home statement for Buffalo.

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Head to Head

Date Team Opp Close Result ATS/OU
Jan 5, 2025 Bills @Patriots -3 / 36.5 Lost 16-23 Lost / Over
Dec 22, 2024 Bills Patriots -14 / 48 Won 24-21 Lost / Under
Dec 31, 2023 Bills Patriots -14.5 / 40 Won 27-21 Lost / Over
Oct 22, 2023 Bills @Patriots -7.5 / 41.5 Lost 25-29 Lost / Over
Jan 8, 2023 Bills Patriots -8.5 / 44 Won 35-23 Won / Over
Dec 1, 2022 Bills @Patriots -3.5 / 43.5 Won 24-10 Won / Under
Jan 15, 2022 Bills Patriots -4.5 / 43 Won 47-17 Won / Over
Dec 26, 2021 Bills @Patriots – / 43.5 Won 33-21 – / Over
Dec 6, 2021 Bills Patriots -3 / 40 Lost 10-14 Lost / Under
Dec 28, 2020 Bills @Patriots -7 / 47 Won 38-9 Won / Push

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: New England

The Patriots are riding some momentum after dismantling the Panthers last week, but they remain inconsistent overall. New England has leaned heavily on its passing attack, ranking ninth in the league, but its run game has been one of the least effective in football. Against Buffalo’s strong defense, especially its league-best pass defense, the Patriots will need to diversify offensively if they want to keep pace.

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: New England Trends

  • Eight out of New England’s last eleven games have resulted in the total going over.
  • Overall, New England has a record of 5-15 in its last 20 games.
  • After five games against Buffalo, New England has a record of 4-1 against the spread.
  • After eight games against Buffalo, New England has a record of 2-6 on the road.
  • In its last nine games played away from home, New England has a winning percentage of 2-7.
  • On the road versus Buffalo, New England has a record of 1-5 in terms of strength of victory in its last six games.
  • There have been eight out of New England’s last twelve games against opponents from the American Football Conference that have resulted in the total betting going over.
  • There have been four out of the previous five games that New England has played against an opponent from the American Football Conference East division in which the total has gone over.
  • After five games played in October, New England has a record of 1-4 against the spread.

New England Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
9/28/25
W 42-13
W-3.5
O45.5
W-175
9/21/25
L 21-14
L-1.5
U43.5
L-122
9/14/25
W 33-27
W+2.5
O45.5
W+120
9/07/25
L 20-13
L-1.5
U43.5
L-120
1/05/25
W 23-16
W+3.5
U44.5
W+150
12/28/24
L 40-7
L+2.5
O41
L+114
12/22/24
L 24-21
W+7.5
O44.5
L+280
12/15/24
L 30-17
L+3.0
O44
L+130
12/01/24
L 25-24
W+2.0
O44
L+105
11/24/24
L 34-15
L+6.5
O45
L+215

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: New England Offense

Overall

NE Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank BUF Defense
23.00 14 Points Scored 21 23.67
243.50 9 Passing Yards 1 131.33
91.00 23 Rushing Yards 30 156.00
31:55 9 Time on Field 3 25:01
61.50 17 Number of Plays 4 52.00
5.44 13 Yards Per Play 24 5.53

Scoring

NE Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank BUF Defense
23.00 14 Points Scored 21 23.67
9.50 1 First Quarter 7 3.33
3.00 30 Second Quarter 22 9.00
4.00 11 Third Quarter 21 4.67
6.50 20 Fourth Quarter 16 6.67

Passing

NE Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank BUF Defense
243.50 9 Passing Yards 1 131.33
34.50 12 Pass Attempts 2 25.00
24.50 7 Pass Completions 2 15.33
3.50 28 Sacks 16 2.00
15.00 16 Sack Yards 16 14.67
9.94 16 Yards Per Pass 8 8.57

Rushing

NE Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank BUF Defense
91.00 23 Rushing Yards 30 156.00
23.50 21 Rush Attempts 12 25.00
3.87 22 Yards Per Rush 32 6.24

Turn Overs

NE Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank BUF Defense
0.50 21 Interceptions 21 0.33
1.00 20 Fumbles 3 2.00
0.00 11 Fumbles Lost 7 0.67
0.50 14 Total Turnovers 13 1.00
10.50 31 Penalties 19 6.00
72.50 25 Penalty Yards 19 47.67

Drives & Special Teams

NE Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank BUF Defense
31:55 9 Time on Field 3 25:01
61.50 17 Number of Plays 4 52.00
5.44 13 Yards Per Play 24 5.53
4.00 20 Punts 6 4.67
47.53 19 Punt Average 20 49.45
163.50 6 Return Yards 31 177.33

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Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Buffalo

Buffalo, meanwhile, looks every bit like a contender. The Bills’ offense has been electric, scoring 34 points per game, ranking second in the league, with both their passing and rushing attacks clicking. Their ground game is especially dangerous, averaging 163 yards per contest, which matches up favorably against a Patriots defense ranked bottom three against the run. Combine that with Buffalo’s near-perfect home record and 6-1 ATS mark in their last seven, and it’s clear they enter this matchup with a major advantage.

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Buffalo Trends

  • Since Buffalo’s last six games, the total has been over in five of those games.
  • In its last seven games, Buffalo has a winning record of 6-1 against the spread.
  • This is the fourth time in Buffalo’s last five games against New England that the total has gone over.
  • At home, Buffalo has a perfect record of 13-0 in its last 13 games.
  • When playing at home against New England, Buffalo has a winning record of 5-1 straight up in its last six games.
  • In each of Buffalo’s last five games against an opponent from the American Football Conference, the total has been over in four of those games.
  • In five of Buffalo’s last seven games against opponents from the American Football Conference East division, the total has turned out to be higher than the point spread.
  • After six games played on Sundays, Buffalo has a record of 4-2 against the spread.
  • Over the past five Sunday games that Buffalo has played at home, the team has a record of 4-1 against the spread.

Buffalo Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
9/28/25
W 31-19
L-12.5
O46.5
W-650
9/18/25
W 31-21
W-8.5
O48.5
W-380
9/14/25
W 30-10
W-8.5
U44.5
W-380
9/07/25
W 41-40
L-1.5
O51.5
W-122
1/26/25
L 32-29
L+1.5
O48.5
L+102
1/19/25
W 27-25
W-1.0
O51.5
W-117
1/12/25
W 31-7
W-8.5
U47.5
W-440
1/05/25
L 23-16
L-3.5
U44.5
L-180
12/29/24
W 40-14
W-2.5
O45.5
W-135
12/22/24
W 24-21
L-7.5
O44.5
W-355

Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction: Buffalo Offense

Overall

NE Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank BUF Offense
23.50 20 Points Scored 2 34.00
315.00 32 Passing Yards 7 257.00
58.50 3 Rushing Yards 2 163.00
28:05 9 Time on Field 3 34:59
57.00 9 Number of Plays 5 68.67
6.55 31 Yards Per Play 5 6.12

Scoring

NE Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank BUF Offense
23.50 20 Points Scored 2 34.00
3.50 13 First Quarter 4 8.00
7.00 18 Second Quarter 14 7.67
8.00 32 Third Quarter 6 5.33
5.00 11 Fourth Quarter 2 13.00

Passing

NE Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank BUF Offense
315.00 32 Passing Yards 7 257.00
33.00 18 Pass Attempts 16 33.67
25.00 27 Pass Completions 11 23.33
4.50 1 Sacks 5 1.33
23.50 30 Sack Yards 30 5.33
12.60 30 Yards Per Pass 8 11.01

Rushing

NE Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank BUF Offense
58.50 3 Rushing Yards 2 163.00
19.50 3 Rush Attempts 3 33.67
3.00 3 Yards Per Rush 9 4.84

Turn Overs

NE Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank BUF Offense
1.00 9 Interceptions 3 0.00
0.00 32 Fumbles 23 1.33
0.00 29 Fumbles Lost 2 0.00
1.00 19 Total Turnovers 1 0.00
9.50 7 Penalties 3 4.67
73.00 7 Penalty Yards 10 47.33

Drives & Special Teams

NE Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank BUF Offense
28:05 9 Time on Field 3 34:59
57.00 9 Number of Plays 5 68.67
6.55 31 Yards Per Play 5 6.12
3.50 19 Punts 8 3.00
48.14 15 Punt Average 30 42.54
165.00 29 Return Yards 13 132.00

 

Our Pick: BUFFALO BILLS

 

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Patriots vs Bills Betting Prediction and Pick Week 5, 2025, by YouWager.lv.

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