Here are the Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting odds, trends, and predictions for the biggest professional football game of the year, taking place in Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Place a bet on this game at YouWager.lv.
Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting Odds
These are the Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting Odds
|SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
|KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting Prediction: San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers are 14-5 this season. In the NFC Championship, the 49ers defeated the Lions 34-31. Christian McCaffrey was the 49ers’ rushing leader, with 20 carries for 90 yards (4.5 yards per carry).
Deebo Samuel averaged 11.1 yards per reception, totaling 89 yards on 8 receptions. Brock Purdy connected on 20/31 for 267 yards through the air and one score. He got an 89 quarterback rating and concluded the game with one pick.
The 49ers allowed 182 yards on 29 carries, for an average of 6.3 yards per run. San Francisco allowed 25 completions on 41 attempts for 260 yards with a completion percentage of 61.0%. In the end, they ran 66 plays for 413 yards. The San Francisco 49ers rushed 33 times for 155 yards, an average of 4.7 yards per tote.
The 49ers have accumulated 6,773 total yards this year. San Francisco has 207 first downs as a team and 101 infractions for 933 yards. San Francisco has scored 33 throwing touchdowns and 27 running touchdowns.
They have turned the ball over 18 times (12 interceptions and 6 fumbles). They rank third in the NFL with an average rushing yards of 140.5. The San Francisco 49ers average 28.9 points per game.
The 49ers rank third in the NFL for team defense, allowing 17.5 points per game. They allow teams to run for an average of 4.1 yards per carry and 89.7 rushing yards per game this season. This season, they have allowed 1,525 rushing yards in 17 games.
The 49ers have allowed 3,642 yards in the air, ranking them 14th in football. They allow 214.2 passing yards per game and a completion percentage of 66.0%. During the season, they average 303.9 yards per game, putting them eighth in the National Football League.
Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting Prediction: Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with a 14-6 record this season. The Chiefs defeated the Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship Game. Patrick Mahomes (1 touchdown) finished the game with 241 yards on 30/39 via the air and a QB rating of 100.5. He threw no interceptions and averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt.
Isiah Pacheco ran the ball 24 times for 68 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry for Kansas City. Travis Kelce led the Chiefs’ passing game with 11 receptions for 116 yards (10.5 yards per reception). Kansas City averaged 2.8 yards per attempt, totaling 89 yards on 32 carries.
The Chiefs completed the game with 319 yards on 73 plays (4.4 yards per play). The Chiefs’ pass defense allowed a 54.1% completion rate, surrendering 255 yards on 20 of 37 passes. Kansas City allowed 16 rushing attempts for 81 yards (5.1 yards per carry).
In terms of scoring ability, the Chiefs rank 15th among all teams in football, with 21.8 points per game. So far this season, the Chiefs have 4,188 passing yards and an average of 246.4 passing yards per game, ranking them sixth in the NFL.
They average 104.9 yards per game on the run and have gained 1,784 yards in total. The Kansas City Chiefs have an average of 351.3 yards per game, placing them ninth in the league. The Kansas City offense has 845 penalty yards on 96 violations, putting it 19th in football in terms of assisting the opposition. They have thrown 17 interceptions while giving up 11 fumbles and accumulating 216 first downs.
They have allowed 19 touchdowns through the air and 176.5 yards per game, ranking fourth among all teams. Kansas City has totaled 1,925 yards rushing (113.2 yards per game) and 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. They have conceded a total of 294 points this season.
They have 17 turnovers (9 fumbles and 8 interceptions) this season. The Chiefs defense has played 1,045 plays and now ranks eighth in football. The Chiefs allow 17.3 points per game, which ranks them second in the league.
Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting: Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Here is our Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting analysis of both the spread and the over/under for this game.
Following the Chiefs’ AFC Championship victory over Baltimore, look-ahead odds projected San Francisco as a 3-point favorite in Super Bowl LVIII. On Sunday night, after the 49ers won the NFC championship with a comeback against Detroit, bookies opened the Niners at -3 to -2.5.
That line did not last long. Within the first 30 minutes of betting action, money on Kansas City had reduced the spread to San Francisco -2, and within an hour of taking bets, the 49ers were as low as 1-point chalk.
The market consensus is 49ers -1. According to the market, 70% of early picks are betting on the underdog Chiefs, while sportsbooks such as YouWager.lv reported 66% ticket count and 67% handle backing Kansas City.
The initial adjustment to the Super Bowl spread has been on the right side of the game in 11 of the last 16 championships, while the market moved to the favorite Philadelphia (-1 to -2.5) in last year’s Super Bowl and Kansas City won outright as a closing +1.5 underdog.
The early shift toward the underdog is an unusual deviation from historical Super Bowl betting tendencies. The favorite typically receives more support in the two weeks leading up to the game, with the public gravitating toward the better team.
Only once in the last five Super Bowls has the dog been the early favorite, and that was Tom Brady and Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV (Bucs +3.5 to +3 and later defeated Kansas City 31-9).
Public perception, along with excellent road performances in the last two games, has won over many K.C. bettors hoping for an edge on the opening lines. While Mahomes is the X-factor for many, the defense is the primary reason the team is playing in its second consecutive Super Bowl.
Despite facing powerful offenses in Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed only 41 total points all playoffs. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best game managers in the NFL, throwing a lot of blitz packages at opposing quarterbacks while changing up looks and coverages to keep them guessing.
San Francisco’s offense will have to keep second-year quarterback Brock Purdy upright. The 49ers’ offense uses pre-snap motion to capitalize on coverage mismatches, but Purdy has the fourth-longest average time in the pocket (2.6 seconds) and will need to get rid of the ball much faster to dodge the Chiefs pass rush.
Fortunately, Purdy has a formidable group of game-changing talent surrounding him. Kyle Shanahan finds innovative methods to get the ball in the hands of his finest players and has two of the most exciting weapons in RB. Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are wreaking damage on the ground and in the air.
Super Bowl LVIII will most likely come down to the Niners’ defense and its ability to limit Mahomes and Co. San Francisco’s defense was one of the finest in the league all season, but it gave up significant gains in postseason victories over Green Bay and Detroit.
The Super Bowl LVIII total began at 47 to 48 points, resulting in a 47.5 industry consensus on Monday morning. According to the market, 69% of early total bets are picking the Over, while YouWager.lv sportsbook reported 82% of bets and 90% of handling on the Over.
This figure could rise considering that the Super Bowl is the most widely bet game in North America, with many first-time gamblers putting money down. Those casual fans want something to cheer for, thus we frequently see big leaning to the Over as kickoff approaches.
The Chiefs have been one of the better Under bets this season, with their offense failing to match previous performance and the defense keeping games close. Kansas City is 6-14 overall this season, but only 5-6 on the road/neutral site.
Kansas City has struggled in the red zone during the playoffs. The Chiefs have left a lot of points on the table, going 6-for-13 on touchdowns within opponents’ 20-yard lines over the last three games. San Francisco’s RZ defense placed in the middle of the pack in terms of touchdown percentage allowed in postseason, allowing five points on nine red-zone drives.
The 49ers have an overall O/U record of 11-8, including a 5-4 mark away from Levi’s Stadium. While San Francisco’s offense has been among the most effective in the league, averaging 28.9 points per game, it has the slowest tempo, with Shanahan’s pre-snap motion taking 30.7 seconds per play.
Allegiant Stadium will host Super Bowl LVIII, an indoor event featuring a natural grass pitch grown outside and hauled in for games. Last year’s clash took place at State Farm Stadium in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Super Bowl LVII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Here are the Super Bowl LVII 49ers vs Chiefs Betting trends:
Soring and ATS
This season, including the playoffs, the Chiefs averaged 22.3 points per game, while the 49ers averaged 28.6. The Chiefs allow 17.1 points per game, while the 49ers allow 17.7, both of which are among the league’s top three.
This season, the 49ers are 7-3 SU and 3-6-1 ATS against playoff teams, with a +707 yardage differential. The Chiefs are 4-4 SU/ATS, with a 3-0 SU/ATS record in the playoffs and a yards differential of +115. San Francisco is 14-5 SU and 9-10 ATS this season, including the playoffs, while Kansas City is 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS.
This season, the Chiefs and 49ers faced seven common opponents, including playoffs: the Packers, Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Ravens, Bengals, and Jaguars. The 49ers finished 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS, while the Chiefs were 4-3 SU/ATS.
Teams that carry for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 SU and 40-14-3 ATS (74%). Teams that outrushed their opponents in this year’s playoffs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS, with the Lions outrushing the 49ers 182-155 before losing 34-31 as a 7-point underdog.
In their two postseason victories, the 49ers defense enabled the Packers (136) and Lions (182) to get significant running yards, averaging 5.58 yards per rush. The Chiefs defense allowed the Bills to rush 182 yards while limiting the Dolphins and Ravens to 85 yards rushing in their three postseason victories.
Including the playoffs, the 49ers average 139 rushing yards per game at 4.8 per run, while the Chiefs average 109 YPG and 4.4 YPR. The 49ers defense has allowed 92 running yards per game (4.2 YPR), but it has not been as strong in the playoffs as the Chiefs defense, which has allowed 115 rushing yards per game (4.5 YPR).
The Chiefs’ total defense has allowed 292 yards per game at 4.7 yards per play, including the playoffs, to the 49ers’ 305 YPG at 5.0 YPPL, both of which are among the league’s top seven.
Passing Yards Per Attempt
Teams that average more throwing yards per attempt in the NFL Championship Game are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS (68.5%). The Eagles lost the Super Bowl last year despite a stronger performance from quarterback Jalen Hurts, who passed for 304 yards at 8.0 yards per attempt.
Brock Purdy, the San Francisco quarterback, is averaging over 9.0 yards per pass in 16 games this season, including playoffs, when the circumstances are dry.
He labored with four interceptions against the Ravens on Christmas Day and was not sharp until the final game-winning touchdown drive in the 49ers’ 24-21 divisional round playoff victory over the Packers.
In the 34-31 NFC Conference Championship game victory over the Lions, he went 20-of-31 for 267 yards (8.6 YPPL), one touchdown, and one interception. Patrick Mahomes was 30-of-39 for 241 yards (6.2) and one touchdown in the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory in the AFC Championship Game.
In his last six postseason games, Mahomes has 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing 70% of his throws and averaging 7.0 yards per attempt.
In the 45 Super Bowls where either team had a turnover edge, the team with the fewest turnovers went 38-7 SU and 36-8-1 ATS (82%). The Eagles had only one turnover in last year’s Super Bowl, but it was a costly one by QB Hurts, who fumbled and had it recovered 36 yards for a Chiefs touchdown.
This year’s playoffs have seen five games with a 2-0 turnover differential, and teams with zero turnovers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Ravens had three turnovers and fell to the Chiefs (0).
Time of Possession
In Super Bowl history, teams with the advantage in time of possession have gone 41-16 SU and 39-15-3 ATS (72%). Last year, the Eagles lost despite having more over 35 minutes of ball possession compared to the Chiefs’ 24+ minutes.
The Chiefs enjoyed a 37-minute to 23-minute time of possession advantage over the Ravens, only one week after falling short of a 37-23 minute TOP against the Bills but still winning. The 49ers’ two postseason victories were quite close in terms of possession time for both sides.
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