Troy vs Duke 76 Birmingham Bowl Preview

Troy vs Duke 76 Birmingham Bowl Preview

See our analysis of Troy vs. Duke for week one to learn who we think will win and cover in Birmingham.

  • Troy ranks 58th with a passing completion rate of 61.6%.
  • Against Duke, opposing quarterbacks had a passing rating of 81.6.


The Duke Blue Devils and Troy Trojans play at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL on Saturday, December 23rd at 12:00 PM ET. The game’s TV broadcast will be on ABC.It is predicted that the Trojans will win this non-conference game by seven points. Is it wiser to wager on the Blue Devils to cover the spread, or should you go with them? Continue reading to learn more.


  • Sport: College Football
  • Teams: Duke Blue Devils versus Troy Trojans
  • Where: Protective Stadium in Birmingham
  • Date: December 23, Saturday


As Troy prepares to play Duke this week, their record stands at 11-2 after their 49-23 victory against Appalachian State. Troy has an 8-4 overall record this season with an average scoring differential of +14. Ten times, the Trojans were the favorite; in the other two, they were the underdog. Troy’s match average (over/under) is currently 49 points after 13 games. OU has a 5-7 record as a result of their games’ average score of 48.3 points.

With 24 pass attempts in the game against Appalachian State, the Trojans finished with 192 yards and one touchdown. They averaged 7.7 yards per carry in the running game, which led to five touchdowns. Gunnar Watson completed 66.7% of his passes for 192 yards against Appalachian State. He completed one touchdown throw with a passer rating of 104.86 in the victory.

The Trojans’ defense allowed Appalachian State a total of 383 yards in the game’s conclusion. Compared to 275 yards in the passing game, the team’s run defense gave up 108 yards of rush yardage. With 44 sacks and first-round quarterback rushes, the Trojans defense will be in the game. They rank 61st in terms of points allowed per game, at 17.2 points. With 202.9 passing yards allowed per game, the squad ranks 52nd in the NCAA against the pass. Troy’s run defense also allows 103.8 running yards per game.


Duke defeated Pittsburgh 30–19, improving their record to 7–5, ahead of this week’s game against Troy. Duke has been the underdog in four games thus far and has been favored six times. An average scoring differential of +8 and an ATS record of 5-5 have resulted from this. Duke currently has a 6-4 over/under record for the season. Their matches have yielded a cumulative average score of 47.5 points, with an average over/under line of 47.1 points.

In the end, the Blue Devils attempted 37 passes against Pittsburgh, gaining 248 yards and two touchdowns. They produced one rushing touchdown with an average of 2.8 yards per carry in the running game. Grayson Loftis completed 54.1% of his passes for 248 yards against Pittsburgh. He completed the game with a passer rating of 81.81 and two touchdown passes.

Pittsburgh was only able to gain 308 yards thanks to Duke’s defense. This includes surrendering 265 throwing yards and 43 permitted on-the-ground yards. The Blue Devils defense leads the league in quarterback hurries and has produced 27 sacks so far this season. They are conceding 19.8 points per game overall, which is 66th. They rank 63rd in the NCAA against the pass with 208.2 passing yards allowed per contest. Each game, Duke allows 146.8 running yards.


With a perfect record of 10-0 in their last ten meetings, Duke has dominated Troy.

Troy has a 2-1 advantage against the spread in their previous three meetings head-to-head, while Duke has a favorable scoring difference of 17 points per game.

Troy was first set as 5.5-point road favorites, but the lines have now shifted to -7 in their favor. Troy now has a 73% chance of winning and a moneyline payout of -272 according to the moneyline odds. On a moneyline of +217, the Blue Devils’ expected win percentage is 32%.


  • Troy is 3-0 ATS against the spread when playing on the road.
  • In their previous ten home games, Duke is 4-6.
  • When Duke entered a game as the underdog the previous three occasions, their overall record was 1-2.
  • Troy is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games as favorites.

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