Braves Evaluate Dylan Dodd’s Future Role as Season Progresses
This is not a “what do you think about Dylan Dodd” thread. It’s more of the Braves.” Two buckets of facts and then I’ll put a third in.
In bucket one, Dodd posted an 85/94/83 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) in 2025. That’s not a dominant relief line, but it’s a decent one. Dodd has a 46/96/83 line in 2026 so far. That’s essentially identical except for the small-sample ERA loss. He’s got a couple HR/FB problems but they’re not big in his sample of under 55 innings over the last two seasons.
Bucket the second: 85% of batters Dodd faced in 2025 were low leverage, and less than four percent high leverage. Medium leverage is average; low and high leverage are uncommon. And also recall that the Braves weren’t really playing for anything for a very big chunk of the 2025 season. By 2026 it’s 78 percent low leverage PAs, and one percent (one single batter) in high leverage.
That’s a rather extreme divide considering his performance. It’s even more apparent if you look at actual games. Dodd pitched in high leverage situations 2 times, medium leverage 3 pitchers and low leverage 23 times in 2025. So far in 2026, Dodd has made one high leverage, two medium leverage and ten low leverage appearances. Not exactly pre 2026 Aaron Bummer-esque with Dodd’s homer difficulties but it’s similar.
Okay, here’s the third bucket. Dodd had six meltdowns to two shutdowns in 2025 and a very negative WPA. And to be quite clear, WPA is not a measure of pitcher quality or pitching effectiveness. Nor are shutdowns or meltdowns. Both are a descriptor of what occurs to the club while the pitcher is on the mound, which is extremely different. But nonetheless, five 2025 outings not started in low leverage and six meltdowns is, uh… Hmmm. And in 2026, Dodd had two shutdowns and two meltdowns, plus three non-low-leverage-starting outings, so… yeah.
So my question is. How do you think the Braves feel about Dylan Dodd? Is he destined to low leverage like Aaron Bummer found himself so quickly? Does he have a chance to work himself out of it? If so, what else will it take, but the mercy of things working out for him in the WPA department? You suppose there is an HR/FB reaction here in some direction as well?
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