Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction: Can Wes Schultz Pull Off the Upset at UFC Sacramento?

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction: Can Wes Schultz Pull Off the Upset at UFC Sacramento?

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction: Who will win at UFC Sacramento? See the odds, striking stats, grappling matchup and free UFC pick.

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC Sacramento?

The Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction favors Jackson McVey as a moderate betting favorite when the two middleweights meet at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026. McVey is listed at -185, while Schultz enters as a +161 underdog for their fight at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

Schultz brings a 9-3-0 professional record into the matchup, while McVey is 7-2-0. The biggest statistical difference comes in striking. McVey lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute at a remarkable 69% accuracy, while Schultz lands 2.91 significant strikes per minute at 46%.

Schultz does have a significant grappling advantage, averaging 2.39 takedowns per three rounds and 3.6 submission attempts per three rounds. That gives him a legitimate path to victory if he can turn the fight into a grappling contest.

However, McVey’s recent first-round submission win and massive striking efficiency make him the preferred side.

Pick: Jackson McVey -185

Who is the pick for Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey?

Pick: Jackson McVey -185

McVey has the more dangerous statistical profile on the feet, landing more than twice as many significant strikes per minute as Schultz while connecting at a much higher percentage. Schultz’s grappling gives him an avenue to an upset, but McVey’s striking efficiency and recent first-round finish make him the preferred pick.

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction Summary

• Fight: Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey
• Event: UFC Sacramento
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
• Weight Class: Middleweight
• Schultz Record: 9-3-0
• McVey Record: 7-2-0
• Schultz Odds: +161
• McVey Odds: -185
• Prediction: Jackson McVey -185

The Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction comes down to a classic striking-versus-grappling matchup. Schultz owns the superior takedown and submission numbers, while McVey has a massive advantage in striking volume and accuracy.

Table of Contents

• Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Odds
• Jackson McVey’s Striking Advantage
• Wes Schultz’s Grappling Advantage
• Recent Fight Results
• Keys to the Fight
• Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Prediction and Pick
• Frequently Asked Questions

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Odds

Jackson McVey enters as the -185 favorite, while Wes Schultz is priced at +161.

The odds suggest McVey is expected to win, but this is far from the type of massive favorite seen in some other UFC Sacramento matchups. Schultz’s grappling statistics provide a clear reason why the market has not made McVey a much larger favorite.

At -185, a $185 wager on McVey would produce $100 in profit if he wins, excluding the returned stake. A $100 bet on Schultz at +161 would produce $161 in profit if the underdog wins.

The betting line therefore reflects a matchup where McVey has the more obvious statistical advantage in striking, but Schultz has a meaningful path through wrestling and submissions.

Jackson McVey’s Striking Advantage

The biggest reason to favor McVey in this Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction is his extraordinary striking efficiency.

McVey averages 6.51 significant strikes per minute, compared with just 2.91 for Schultz.

That means McVey is producing more than twice Schultz’s significant-strike output.

The accuracy gap is even more pronounced.

McVey lands 69% of his significant-strike attempts, while Schultz connects on 46%. A 23-percentage-point advantage in accuracy gives McVey a major technical edge whenever the fight remains standing.

McVey also absorbs 3.37 significant strikes per minute, compared with 3.11 for Schultz. However, McVey’s defensive percentage is only 23%, compared with Schultz’s 43%.

That creates an interesting contrast: McVey is extraordinarily accurate offensively, but Schultz has the better listed defensive percentage.

If Schultz can force McVey into prolonged exchanges while avoiding the biggest shots, the underdog could remain competitive. But if McVey can maintain his normal offensive efficiency, his striking advantage could become decisive.

Wes Schultz’s Grappling Advantage

Schultz’s best route to victory is clearly on the ground.

He averages 2.39 takedowns per three rounds, while McVey averages only 0.15 takedowns per 15 minutes based on the supplied statistics.

Schultz also averages 3.6 submission attempts per three rounds, compared with 1.2 for McVey.

That is a significant difference.

Schultz’s most recent victory demonstrates exactly why his grappling should not be overlooked. He submitted Ben Johnston with a guillotine choke in the third round.

The problem is that Schultz’s takedown success rate is only 21%, and his takedown defense is listed at just 15%.

McVey’s takedown defense is also listed at 15%, so there is a potential opportunity for Schultz to get the fight to the mat.

If Schultz can secure repeated takedowns and establish top control, the fight could look very different from the striking statistics.

Recent Fight Results

Schultz enters UFC Sacramento after defeating Ben Johnston by guillotine choke in the third round.

Schultz was highly efficient with his significant strikes in that matchup, landing 12 of 17 for a 70% connection rate. He also landed 22 of 32 total strikes.

The victory reinforces Schultz’s ability to find submissions when he gets opportunities on the ground.

McVey is coming off an even quicker finish.

He defeated Sedriques Dumas by D’Arce choke in the first round.

McVey landed 21 of 29 significant strikes in that contest, connecting on an outstanding 72% of his attempts. He also landed 16 of 22 significant strikes aimed at the head.

Those numbers are consistent with his overall profile: McVey is extremely efficient and capable of producing damaging offense without needing a large number of attempts.

Keys to the Fight

Can Schultz Get the Fight to the Ground?

This is probably the biggest question surrounding the Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction.

Schultz has substantially better takedown and submission activity. If he can repeatedly bring McVey to the mat, he can neutralize the favorite’s greatest weapon.

Can McVey Maintain Distance?

McVey should want to keep the fight standing.

His 6.51 significant strikes per minute and 69% accuracy represent a huge statistical advantage. Every minute spent on the feet gives McVey another opportunity to exploit that edge.

Which Fighter Can Avoid the Other’s Strength?

Schultz needs to avoid prolonged striking exchanges.

McVey needs to avoid extended grappling sequences.

That makes the opening rounds especially important. If McVey establishes his striking rhythm early, Schultz could be forced to take greater risks to initiate takedowns. Conversely, an early Schultz takedown could dramatically change the fight’s dynamics.

Why Is Jackson McVey Favored?

McVey’s favorite status is primarily supported by his striking numbers.

He lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute at 69% accuracy, while Schultz lands 2.91 at 46%.

McVey is also younger at 27 compared with Schultz at 30 and has a three-inch height advantage, standing 6’4″ compared with Schultz at 6’1″. Both fighters have a 77-inch reach.

The combination of size, youth and striking efficiency gives McVey the more dangerous stand-up profile.

His recent first-round submission victory also shows that he is not dependent exclusively on striking to win.

Can Wes Schultz Beat Jackson McVey?

Yes. Schultz has a legitimate upset path through wrestling.

His 2.39 takedowns per three rounds and 3.6 submission attempts per three rounds are considerably stronger than McVey’s listed grappling output.

If Schultz can consistently force McVey to defend takedowns and fight from the bottom, he can take away much of the favorite’s striking advantage.

However, Schultz’s low takedown success rate and weak listed takedown defense create concerns. He cannot afford to repeatedly fail on takedown attempts and leave himself exposed to McVey’s counter offense.

The underdog needs to turn his grappling advantage into actual control time rather than simply attempting takedowns.

Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Prediction and Pick

The Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey Betting Prediction is Jackson McVey -185.

McVey has the clearest statistical advantage in the most important area of the matchup: striking. He lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute at 69% accuracy, while Schultz lands 2.91 per minute at 46%.

Schultz can make this competitive if he consistently gets the fight to the ground. His submission activity is impressive, and his recent guillotine victory demonstrates that he can capitalize when opponents give him grappling opportunities.

Still, McVey’s combination of striking volume, accuracy, size and recent finishing form makes him the preferred betting side.

Final Pick

Pick: Jackson McVey -185

McVey is the recommended pick at the current opening price. Schultz has enough grappling ability to create danger, but McVey’s significant striking advantage gives him the stronger overall matchup profile.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored in Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey?

Jackson McVey is the favorite at -185, while Wes Schultz is listed at +161.

What is the Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey betting prediction?

The pick is Jackson McVey -185.

What is Wes Schultz’s record?

Wes Schultz enters UFC Sacramento with a 9-3-0 professional record.

What is Jackson McVey’s record?

Jackson McVey enters the fight with a 7-2-0 professional record.

Who has the better striking statistics?

McVey has the clear advantage. He lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute at 69% accuracy, compared with Schultz’s 2.91 significant strikes per minute at 46%.

Who has the better grappling statistics?

Schultz has the stronger grappling profile. He averages 2.39 takedowns per three rounds and 3.6 submission attempts per three rounds.

Who has the better recent win?

Both fighters are coming off submission victories. Schultz defeated Ben Johnston by guillotine choke in Round 3, while McVey defeated Sedriques Dumas by D’Arce choke in Round 1.

When is Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey?

The fight is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento.

Where is UFC Sacramento taking place?

UFC Sacramento is scheduled to take place at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

Should you bet Jackson McVey at -185?

Based on the supplied matchup statistics, Jackson McVey -185 is the recommended side. His striking efficiency and offensive volume provide the clearest statistical advantage, although Schultz’s grappling creates legitimate upset potential.