Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC Sacramento?

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC Sacramento?

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction: Who is favored at UFC Sacramento? Get the odds, matchup analysis, stats, best bet and fight prediction.

The Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction favors Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez to defeat Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Hernandez enters as the -160 favorite, while Rodrigues is listed at +140. Hernandez has the more well-rounded statistical profile, particularly in wrestling and submission offense, and his ability to control where the fight takes place gives him the clearest path to victory.

Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez -160

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction and Best Bet

Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues meet at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Hernandez enters the matchup with a 15-3-0 record plus one no contest, while Rodrigues brings a 19-6-0 record.

The betting market has Hernandez favored at -160, with Rodrigues at +140.

On the feet, Rodrigues has the higher significant-strike output, landing 5.53 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.57 for Hernandez. However, Hernandez is considerably more efficient, connecting on 60% of his significant strikes compared with 51% for Rodrigues.

The larger advantage comes in the grappling department.

Hernandez averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, converts 48% of his attempts and defends 68% of opponent takedown attempts. He also averages 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

That gives Hernandez multiple ways to win.

Rodrigues has dangerous knockout power and a 19-6 professional record, so he cannot be dismissed. But if Hernandez can repeatedly force grappling exchanges, he should be able to neutralize some of Rodrigues’ striking advantage and accumulate control time.

Best Pick: Anthony Hernandez -160

Hernandez’s wrestling, submission activity and striking defense make him the preferred side.

Projected Result

Anthony Hernandez by decision

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Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction Summary

• Fight: Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
• Event: UFC Sacramento
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
• Hernandez record: 15-3-0 (1 NC)
• Rodrigues record: 19-6-0
• Hernandez odds: -160
• Rodrigues odds: +140
• Hernandez significant strikes landed/min: 4.57
• Rodrigues significant strikes landed/min: 5.53
• Hernandez significant-strike accuracy: 60%
• Rodrigues significant-strike accuracy: 51%
• Hernandez significant strikes absorbed/min: 3.10
• Rodrigues significant strikes absorbed/min: 4.78
• Hernandez takedowns/15 min: 5.88
• Hernandez takedown defense: 68%
• Rodrigues takedown defense: 75%
• Hernandez submissions/15 min: 1.6
• Best bet: Anthony Hernandez -160
• Prediction: Hernandez by decision

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Table of Contents

• Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Betting Prediction and Best Bet
• Anthony Hernandez Has the Grappling Advantage
• Gregory Rodrigues Brings More Striking Volume
• Anthony Hernandez Has the Better Defensive Profile
• Recent Fight Results
• Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Odds
• Best Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Bet
• Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Prediction
• Follow-Up Questions
• Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues FAQ

Anthony Hernandez Has the Grappling Advantage

The biggest reason to favor Hernandez is his wrestling.

Hernandez averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, an extremely high rate compared with Rodrigues’ 34% takedown accuracy. Hernandez converts 48% of his own takedown attempts and has defended 68% of takedowns attempted against him.

He also attempts 1.6 submissions per 15 minutes.

That combination gives Hernandez a clear route to controlling the fight without needing to win every striking exchange.

Rodrigues does own a strong 75% takedown defense, which means Hernandez cannot assume every attempt will succeed. Still, Hernandez’s volume gives him plenty of opportunities to repeatedly attack the legs, body and cage before transitioning into top control.

If Hernandez establishes his wrestling early, Rodrigues could be forced to spend long stretches defending takedowns rather than setting up his own offense.

Why Hernandez’s Wrestling Matters

Rodrigues’ best weapon is his striking, particularly his ability to generate damage at range. Hernandez’s wrestling gives him a way to change that dynamic.

Instead of engaging Rodrigues in prolonged boxing exchanges, Hernandez can attempt to close distance, secure takedowns and work from dominant positions.

That makes the wrestling matchup one of the most important factors in this fight.

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Gregory Rodrigues Brings More Striking Volume

Rodrigues has the statistical advantage in significant-strike output.

He lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute, compared with 4.57 for Hernandez. That extra volume could become important if Rodrigues is able to keep the fight standing.

Rodrigues also owns a 19-6 record and has demonstrated finishing ability throughout his career.

However, there is a significant defensive difference between the two fighters.

Rodrigues absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while Hernandez absorbs only 3.10.

That means Rodrigues is considerably more hittable.

Hernandez also lands his significant strikes at a 60% accuracy rate, compared with 51% for Rodrigues.

The striking statistics therefore do not simply favor Rodrigues. He has the greater volume, but Hernandez has the better accuracy and defensive numbers.

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Anthony Hernandez Has the Better Defensive Profile

Hernandez’s defensive numbers provide another reason to favor the favorite.

He limits opponents to 3.10 significant strikes per minute and defends 51% of significant strikes thrown at him.

Rodrigues absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute and defends 50%.

The difference in strikes absorbed is particularly important.

If Rodrigues cannot consistently stop Hernandez’s takedowns, he could spend less time utilizing his superior striking volume and more time defending against positional attacks.

Hernandez’s ability to combine striking defense with offensive wrestling makes him a difficult matchup for Rodrigues.

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Recent Fight Results

Hernandez’s most recent fight came against Sean Strickland, where he suffered a third-round defeat by punch to the head while on the ground.

Strickland landed 111 of 242 total strikes, while Hernandez connected on 57 of 124. Hernandez landed 55 of 122 significant strikes, including 29 of 93 significant strikes directed toward the head.

That loss is worth considering, but it should not necessarily be interpreted as a reason to fade Hernandez here. Rodrigues presents a different stylistic challenge, particularly because Hernandez should have opportunities to dictate the grappling exchanges.

Rodrigues enters this fight after defeating Brunno Ferreira by first-round knockout via punch to the head.

That result highlights the danger Hernandez faces if he allows Rodrigues to establish his striking rhythm.

Rodrigues is therefore a legitimate live underdog, particularly if he can keep the fight standing.

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Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Odds

The current odds list:

Hernandez is the favorite because of his more complete statistical profile and particularly his wrestling advantage.

Rodrigues at +140 offers underdog value for bettors who believe his striking power will be enough to keep Hernandez from implementing his grappling game.

However, the matchup favors Hernandez if he can consistently dictate the location of the fight.

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Best Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Bet

Pick: Anthony Hernandez -160

The recommended wager is Anthony Hernandez -160.

Hernandez has the clearest path to controlling this matchup. His 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes provide two major weapons against Rodrigues.

Rodrigues has excellent 75% takedown defense, so Hernandez will need to be persistent rather than expecting easy takedowns. But the sheer difference in wrestling activity gives Hernandez opportunities to repeatedly force Rodrigues into defensive positions.

Hernandez is also the more efficient striker, landing 60% of his significant strikes while absorbing only 3.10 per minute.

Rodrigues’ 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute make him dangerous, but his 4.78 significant strikes absorbed per minute suggest Hernandez can find success if the fight remains competitive on the feet.

Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez -160

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Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Prediction

This fight could be competitive early, particularly if Rodrigues is able to keep Hernandez at distance.

Rodrigues has the higher striking volume and legitimate knockout power, meaning Hernandez must avoid prolonged exchanges in the pocket.

The more likely scenario is that Hernandez eventually establishes his wrestling.

Repeated takedown attempts should allow Hernandez to accumulate control time, limit Rodrigues’ offensive output and create submission opportunities. Rodrigues’ 75% takedown defense should prevent Hernandez from dominating every exchange, but Hernandez has enough wrestling volume to continue attacking.

If the fight reaches the later rounds, Hernandez’s ability to mix takedowns, positional control and striking should give him the advantage on the scorecards.

Final Prediction: Anthony Hernandez by Decision

Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez -160

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Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues?

Anthony Hernandez is favored at -160, while Gregory Rodrigues is listed at +140.

What is the best bet for Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues?

The best bet is Anthony Hernandez -160 based on his wrestling advantage, striking accuracy and defensive profile.

Who has the better striking statistics?

Rodrigues lands more significant strikes per minute at 5.53 compared with Hernandez’s 4.57. However, Hernandez has the better significant-strike accuracy at 60% versus 51%.

Who has the better wrestling?

Hernandez has the clear offensive wrestling advantage. He averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 1.6 submissions per 15 minutes.

Can Gregory Rodrigues win this fight?

Yes. Rodrigues is dangerous on the feet and has a 19-6 record. His best path is to defend Hernandez’s takedowns and force extended striking exchanges.

What is the Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues prediction?

The prediction is Anthony Hernandez by decision.

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Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues FAQ

What are the Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues odds?

Anthony Hernandez is listed at -160, while Gregory Rodrigues is +140.

Who should I pick between Hernandez and Rodrigues?

Hernandez is the recommended pick. His wrestling and submission activity provide a strong stylistic advantage.

Will Anthony Hernandez wrestle Gregory Rodrigues?

Hernandez averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, so wrestling should be a major component of his game plan.

Does Gregory Rodrigues have a chance to win by knockout?

Yes. Rodrigues lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and has proven finishing ability. His clearest path to victory is keeping the fight standing and finding a damaging striking exchange.

What is the most likely method of victory?

The most likely result is Anthony Hernandez by decision, with his wrestling and control time giving him enough success to win the judges’ scorecards.

What is the final Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues prediction?

Anthony Hernandez defeats Gregory Rodrigues by decision.

Pick: Anthony Hernandez -160.