Continue reading for our NCAA week 12 pick and preview of Duke vs. Virginia. In this post, we will determine who will win and cover the spread.
- Duke ranks 109th in passing completion percentage at 54.9%.
- Virginia’s defense ranks 131st in terms of points allowed.
PREVIEW: DUKE VS. VIRGINIA
The Virginia Cavaliers will face the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday, November 18th at 3:00 ET. This week’s CFB showdown at Scott Stadium will be shown on CW.The Blue Devils are a 4 point favorite on the spread in this week’s Atlantic Coast clash. Continue reading to find out how I see this one unfolding.
AT A GLANCE: DUKE VS. VIRGINIA MATCHUP
- College Football is a sport.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
- Scott Stadium in Charlottesville
- Saturday, November 18th is the date.
DUKE PREVIEW: WILL THEY GET ANOTHER WIN?
Duke’s overall record dropped to 6-4 after their latest loss to North Carolina. The Blue Devils were defeated in the game by a score of 47-45. Duke’s season average scoring differential is +8.8, resulting in an ATS record of 4-4. The Blue Devils have been the favorite four times and the underdog four times this season, with a 4-4 over/under record. In their games, the average combined score has been 46.4 points, while the normal over/under line has been 47.9 points.
The Blue Devils tried 29 passes against North Carolina, garnering 200 yards and scoring three touchdowns. They averaged 4.2 yards per carry on the ground, resulting in three running touchdowns. Grayson Loftis finished the team’s most recent loss to North Carolina with 189 passing yards. He not only threw three touchdowns, but he also rushed for one.
Duke ended their game against North Carolina with a total of 537 yards allowed on defense. Against Duke, North Carolina passed the ball 43 times for 342 yards. The Blue Devils surrendered 195 yards on the ground.
The Blue Devils defense enters the game with 22 sacks and ranks first in quarterback hurries. In terms of points allowed, they rank 66th with 18.8 per game. They are ranked 46th in the NCAA in pass defense, surrendering an average of 195.6 passing yards per game. Furthermore, Duke’s run defense allows 154.5 rushing yards per game.
PREVIEW OF VIRGINIA: IS VIRGINIA ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER WIN?
Virginia enters this game with a 2-8 overall record. They were defeated by Louisville 31-24 in their most recent encounter. Virginia has been the favorite once and the underdog seven times thus far. This has resulted in a 5-3 ATS record and a -9.1 average scoring differential. The average over/under line in Virginia’s games through 10 games is 50.5 points. Their games have averaged 55.5 points, resulting in an OU record of 5-2-1.
Against Louisville, the Cavaliers passed the ball 32 times for 314 yards and one touchdown. They averaged 3.6 yards per carry on the run and scored one rushing touchdown. QB Anthony Colandrea finished with a QB rating of 95.36 in the loss to Louisville, completing 20 of 31 throws for 314 yards. He also had one touchdown at the end of the game.
The Cavaliers’ defense gave up 425 total yards against Louisville at the end of the game. The team’s run defense gave up 182 yards rushing while allowing 243 yards passing. Virginia enters the game ranked 131st in points allowed, allowing 32.3 per game. Teams have averaged 217.9 passing yards against them (ranking 77th). They rank 135th in college football in run defense, allowing 180.6 yards per carry.
BETTING ODDS, TRENDS, AND ANALYSIS FOR DUKE VS VIRGINIA
Duke won the most recent head-to-head meeting between the teams (last year) 38-17. Duke’s running assault totaled 248 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per attempt. On defense, they allowed Virginia 295 yards of offense.
Duke is now favored by 4 points on the road. The point spread has seen little variation, with the lines being stable from the game’s inception. According to the current moneyline odds, Virginia has a 40% chance of winning and a moneyline payout of +147. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, have an implied win percentage of 65% and a moneyline of -187.
IMPORTANT BETTING TRENDS
- Duke is 3-2 against the spread in their last five away games.
- Looking at the last five home games, Virginia is 4-1 against the spread.
- Looking back at the last ten games in which Virginia was the underdog, the ATS record was 7-3.
- Duke’s ATS record over the last five occasions they were favored was 3-2.
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