Are the Braves Shifting Focus in 2026?
A little background information: the Braves have a 5.5-game lead in the division, postseason odds that are higher than 96 percent, and the third-best record in Major League Baseball. They are not required to pursue victories.
On the other hand, in the same vein, they did not have to chase wins in 2025 (although it was never quite as comparable, since playoff odds dropped below 90 percent following their bad start), with playoff odds comfortably above 50 percent throughout the majority of April and May. The exception to this is that eventually, the time period during which they did not have to do so ran out, and by the time they did need to, they were playing catch-up while the roster was being reduced due to injuries and other similar factors.
It would seem reasonable to assume that they would not repeat this error. Perhaps they believe that the difference lies in the fact that they are not the ones who are playing catchup, at least not at this moment in time. But we are familiar with this tale from the past. Although we seen it on occasion during the years 2022 and 2023, the fact that the team was so strong that it was irrelevant may be a contributing factor to the current emotions of potential overconfidence. We witnessed it in the year 2024, when the Braves were ultimately vindicated, albeit on a bit of a razor’s edge as the outcome determined. And then, the previous year, we witnessed it, with disastrous outcomes.
This, I believed, was the source of inspiration for the new philosophy that we witnessed in April and May of this year. Even Walt Weiss would say things like “chasing wins.” Walt Weiss stated that they had to pitch the entire game with only four pitchers, and two of those pitchers were JR Ritchie and Carlos Carrasco. This was the situation that they faced last night. To clarify, when you are in a position where you have decided that only four pitchers, including Ritchie and Carrasco, are available to assist you in winning a game, you have already decided, prior to the first pitch, that you are not pursuing this particular win. This is the reason why Ritchie was allowed to pitch for a total of one hundred pitches, despite the fact that he had another mediocre outing that actually improved after he and the defense turned a four-run lead into a one-run deficit. Carrasco went on to blow a lead in the seventh inning.
The other side of the coin was that we were able to witness the pinnacle of victory chase from the other dugout. When the Padres were able to get their first six outs of the game, they only utilized three pitches. The Braves use an opener, which is something that they simply do not care about doing despite the fact that their rotation situation is uncertain and that they have a number of players who might definitely benefit from the assistance. One of their listed bulk guys was having difficulty, so they just removed him and replaced him with another individual. In order to make this point abundantly obvious, the Padres went to a different pitcher who was already trailing by a score of 3-0, when the leverage was still at a medium-high level, because they probably wanted to try to win this game. After that, they extended the use of Mason Miller for two innings, which was something they hadn’t done since they had acquired him. This was done because, once again, it is likely that they wanted to win this game.
Can we say that the Braves have given up on winning? We are aware that they were pursuing them earlier, based not only on what we observed but also on the statements that they provided. These days, however, we are witnessing the 2022-2025 approach to pitching management, and the post-game sound bits are all about availability rather than saying things like, “Hell yeah, let’s try to win a game.”
Throughout the course of the previous year, I found myself repeatedly requiring the addition of material such as “Even if it is not right now, the Braves are eventually going to try to win as hard as they can, or else their margin for not doing so will completely evaporate.” After that, I decided to cease because they collapsed in June with a string of embarrassing defeats, and that was the end of it. In spite of the fact that I would like not to do it again, if they continue to behave in this manner, I won’t have much of a choice.
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