Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction and Pick, Week 11

The Chiefs and Broncos are set for another AFC West showdown in Week 11, and this one has major implications for both teams as they continue to fight for playoff position. Historically, this matchup has been one-sided in favor of Kansas City, but Denver has shown they can flip the script, as seen in their shocking 38-0 win last season in January. The Chiefs come into this game with one of the most balanced offensive attacks in football, averaging over 26 points per game and ranking top-10 in both rushing and passing yards. Patrick Mahomes continues to spread the ball effectively, supported by a ground game that’s producing over 120 yards per contest. But Denver’s defense has quietly become one of the best units in the league, ranking top-10 in almost every major category — including points allowed, passing yards, and rushing yards. The question for bettors is simple: can Kansas City’s offensive rhythm break through the brick wall that Denver has built defensively, especially on the road in the thin Mile High air?

The Chiefs are still one of the most dangerous and efficient teams in the NFL, despite a few hiccups early in the year. They rank fifth in passing yards (251.8 per game) and ninth in rushing, showing that they can move the ball in multiple ways. Mahomes has continued to produce at an elite level even without a true superstar wideout, thanks to Andy Reid’s offensive creativity and Kansas City’s ability to control possession (averaging 32:30 time of possession, third-best in the league). Their defense has also been more disciplined than in past seasons, limiting big plays and keeping the team in control even when the offense stalls. However, penalties have occasionally slowed their momentum, and turnovers — though not a major issue — could become a problem against an opportunistic Broncos defense. If the Chiefs can stay efficient in the red zone and limit third-down mistakes, they’ll have the upper hand in this matchup. Still, this is no easy task against a Denver team that’s been quietly stacking wins and playing with confidence.

On the other side, the Broncos are one of the hottest teams in football right now, having won seven of their last eight games. Denver’s offense has been remarkably balanced, ranking third in rushing (137.8 yards per game) and 14th in passing (219.1 yards). Their offensive line has been much improved, allowing the team to sustain drives and protect the quarterback efficiently. Running the football has been key to their success, and when paired with their dominant defense — which ranks fifth in points allowed and first in yards per play allowed (just 4.56) — Denver has become a legitimate contender in the AFC. Their ability to control tempo, wear down opponents, and force low-scoring, grind-it-out games gives them a real chance to beat Kansas City again. With home-field advantage and a defense built to frustrate Mahomes, Denver has all the tools to make this a statement win.

✅ Our Chiefs vs Broncos Pick: BRONCOS

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: Head to Head

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
1/05/25	@DEN	DEN 38-0	DEN+4.0	U46.5	DEN+160
11/10/24	@KC	KC 16-14	KC-9.0	U46	KC-410
10/29/23	@DEN	DEN 24-9	DEN+3.5	U47.5	DEN+150
10/12/23	@KC	KC 19-8	KC-7.0	U48	KC-305
1/01/23	@KC	KC 27-24	KC-4.0	O44	KC-190
12/11/22	@DEN	KC 34-28	DENEVEN	O42.5	DEN-110
1/08/22	@DEN	KC 28-24	DEN+3.0	O43.5	DEN+135
12/05/21	@KC	KC 22-9	KC-9.5	U50	KC-460
12/06/20	@KC	KC 22-16	KC-13.0	U50.5	KC-835
10/25/20	@DEN	KC 43-16	DEN+7.0	O43.5	DEN+280

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
11/02/25	@HOU	W 18-15	W-1.5	U45.5	W-115
10/26/25	DAL	W 44-24	W-4.5	O45.5	W-198
10/19/25	NYG	W 33-32	L-7.5	O40.5	W-325
10/12/25	@NYJ	W 13-11	L-6.5	U41.5	W-320
10/05/25	@PHI	W 21-17	W+4.5	U45.5	W+164
9/29/25	CIN	W 28-3	W-1.5	U44.5	W-130
9/21/25	@LAC	L 23-20	L+1.5	U44.5	LEVEN
9/14/25	@IND	L 29-28	L-3.5	O44.5	L-175
9/07/25	TEN	W 20-12	W-7.0	U42.5	W-360
1/12/25	@BUF	L 31-7	L+8.5	U47.5	L+340

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: Kansas City Offense

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: Denver Offense

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction and Pick, Week 11, by YouWager.lv.