Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction: Can Philadelphia Beat St. Louis and Stay Under 9 Runs?

Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction for August 22, 2026, with Phillies vs Cardinals odds, pitching matchup, moneyline pick, under 9 runs and MLB analysis.

The best Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction for Saturday, August 22, 2026, is Philadelphia Phillies -122 on the moneyline and Under 9 runs. Philadelphia enters the matchup with a 70-58 record and will have home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park against the 66-63 St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies also own a stronger underlying pitching profile, highlighted by a 3.77 team FIP and an outstanding 1,259 strikeouts against 392 walks. St. Louis has been competitive offensively but has a 4.04 team ERA and 4.06 FIP.

The biggest concern with taking Philadelphia is starting pitcher Andrew Painter, who has struggled during his limited MLB career. Painter has a 6.45 career ERA and 1.551 WHIP over 85 innings. Still, the Phillies’ overall pitching staff provides enough support to make Philadelphia the preferred moneyline side. The offensive statistics for both teams also point toward a relatively controlled scoring environment, making Under 9 runs an appealing total.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -122 and Under 9 runs

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Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction and Game Overview

The St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Cardinals enter the game at 66-63, while the Phillies are 70-58.

Philadelphia is listed as the favorite at -122, while St. Louis is priced at +102. The total is 9 runs.

The projected starting pitchers are:

• Cardinals: Andre Pallante
• Phillies: Andrew Painter
• Moneyline: St. Louis +102, Philadelphia -122
• Total: 9 runs
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

The betting market is giving Philadelphia a modest home-field edge rather than pricing the Phillies as a heavy favorite. That makes the pitching matchup particularly important when evaluating the Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction.

Philadelphia has a better overall record, a significantly stronger strikeout-to-walk profile and a lower FIP. St. Louis, meanwhile, has demonstrated better defensive results and has enough offensive production to make the game competitive.

The question for bettors is whether those advantages are enough to justify laying -122 with Philadelphia and whether the combined offenses can stay below a total of nine runs.

Based on the supplied statistics, the answer is yes.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Odds

The current odds for the matchup are:

Philadelphia’s -122 moneyline implies that the Phillies are expected to win this game more often than St. Louis, but the price is not especially expensive.

That matters because the Phillies have several statistical advantages that support the favorite designation.

Philadelphia has won 70 games compared with 66 for St. Louis, and the Phillies are playing at home. Their pitching staff has also generated significantly more strikeouts, while its FIP is lower than St. Louis’ mark.

At +102, the Cardinals are certainly not without value. They have a solid .988 fielding percentage and have turned 127 double plays. Their offense has also produced 572 runs.

However, the Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction favors Philadelphia because the Phillies’ overall pitching metrics provide the more convincing statistical foundation.

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Why the Phillies Are the Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction

There are several reasons to favor Philadelphia on the moneyline.

1. Philadelphia Has the Better Overall Record

The Phillies enter at 70-58, compared with 66-63 for the Cardinals.

That is not a massive difference, but it does establish Philadelphia as the more successful team over the course of the season.

The Phillies have also been able to combine respectable offensive production with a pitching staff that has accumulated an impressive number of strikeouts.

St. Louis is only three games above .500, while Philadelphia is 12 games over .500.

That difference becomes more meaningful when combined with home-field advantage.

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2. The Phillies Have a Stronger FIP

One of the most important numbers in this matchup is team FIP.

Philadelphia owns a 3.77 FIP, while St. Louis has a 4.06 FIP.

Fielding Independent Pitching attempts to isolate the aspects of pitching most directly controlled by the pitcher, primarily strikeouts, walks and home runs. While FIP should not be treated as a perfect predictor, the difference here supports Philadelphia.

The Phillies have allowed 150 home runs and have surrendered 559 total runs. Their actual team ERA is 4.12, but the 3.77 FIP indicates that their underlying pitching performance has been stronger than the ERA alone suggests.

St. Louis’ 4.06 FIP is respectable, but it does not match Philadelphia.

For a game with a relatively short moneyline price, that difference is significant.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers

The starting pitching matchup is one of the most complicated parts of this game.

St. Louis is expected to send Andre Pallante to the mound, while Philadelphia is expected to counter with Andrew Painter.

On career numbers alone, Pallante has considerably more experience.

Andre Pallante’s Career Numbers

Pallante has pitched 596 MLB innings and has accumulated:

• 418 strikeouts
• 4.15 ERA
• 1.378 WHIP
• 4.09 FIP
• 9.1 hits allowed per nine innings
• 221 walks
• 36-35 career record

Pallante’s career profile is that of a pitcher who has generally been serviceable but has not dominated opposing hitters.

His 4.15 ERA and 4.09 FIP are relatively close, suggesting that there is not a huge difference between his run-prevention results and his underlying numbers.

The 1.378 WHIP is more concerning.

Philadelphia’s offense is not among the league’s highest-scoring attacks, but the Phillies have enough power and on-base ability to capitalize if Pallante allows traffic.

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Andrew Painter’s Career Numbers

Painter is a much more intriguing pitcher because his MLB sample is considerably smaller.

He has pitched 85 career innings and has recorded:

• 71 strikeouts
• 6.45 ERA
• 1.551 WHIP
• 6.40 FIP
• 10.4 hits allowed per nine innings
• 2.09 strikeout-to-walk ratio
• 2-8 career record

Those numbers clearly favor Pallante from a career-performance perspective.

Painter’s 6.45 ERA is the biggest red flag in the entire Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction.

His 6.40 FIP is similarly concerning, indicating that his struggles cannot simply be blamed on defense or sequencing.

However, career numbers do not necessarily tell us exactly how a pitcher will perform in one particular game. Painter’s limited MLB experience also means his career statistics can be heavily influenced by a relatively small number of innings.

The Phillies’ overall pitching staff is considerably stronger than Painter’s career numbers suggest.

That distinction is important.

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Cardinals Offensive Analysis

The Cardinals enter the game averaging 4.4 runs per game, which ranks them 18th in MLB according to the supplied statistics.

Their offensive profile includes:

• .241 batting average
• .317 OBP
• .382 slugging percentage
• 572 runs
• 557 RBI
• 1,040 hits
• 185 doubles
• 133 home runs
• 999 strikeouts
• 425 walks

This is a fairly balanced but unspectacular offensive attack.

The Cardinals are not a team that relies exclusively on home runs. They have accumulated 185 doubles, which gives them an additional source of extra-base production.

However, their .382 slugging percentage leaves something to be desired.

For comparison, Philadelphia has a .401 slugging percentage.

That difference may not seem enormous, but it contributes to the argument that the Phillies have a slightly more dangerous offense.

St. Louis also has a .241 batting average, identical to Philadelphia in the supplied statistics.

That means the two teams are relatively similar in terms of batting average, but Philadelphia has the better slugging percentage.

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Phillies Offensive Analysis

Philadelphia is averaging 4.48 runs per game, ranking 16th in MLB.

The Phillies have:

• .241 batting average
• .312 OBP
• .401 slugging percentage
• 574 runs
• 555 RBI
• 1,033 hits
• 181 doubles
• 155 home runs
• 1,080 strikeouts
• 411 walks

The Phillies’ offense is not dramatically better than St. Louis’ offense.

In fact, the Cardinals have a slightly higher OBP, at .317 compared with Philadelphia’s .312.

That makes the pitching matchup even more important.

Philadelphia’s advantage is primarily in its power profile and pitching rather than in its ability to consistently reach base.

The Phillies have hit 155 home runs compared with 133 for St. Louis. That 22-home-run difference gives Philadelphia another avenue for scoring.

If the Phillies can keep Pallante from limiting extra-base hits, the home team has enough offensive firepower to put pressure on the Cardinals.

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Cardinals Pitching Analysis

The Cardinals’ pitching staff has compiled:

• 4.04 ERA
• 4.06 FIP
• 1.33 WHIP
• 1,000 strikeouts
• 437 walks
• 126 home runs allowed
• 1,089 hits allowed
• 562 runs allowed
• 2.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio

The 4.04 ERA is respectable.

The 4.06 FIP is also reasonable.

However, the Cardinals have not generated nearly as many strikeouts as Philadelphia.

Their 2.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio is a major difference from the Phillies’ supplied 10.00 K/BB ratio.

While that listed Phillies ratio appears unusually high relative to standard MLB presentation, the supplied statistics clearly show a substantial strikeout advantage for Philadelphia.

St. Louis also has a 1.33 WHIP.

That means the Cardinals’ pitchers have allowed considerably more baserunners than Philadelphia would prefer.

If Pallante struggles early, the Cardinals could be forced to rely on a bullpen that has shown some vulnerability.

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Phillies Pitching Analysis

Philadelphia’s staff has posted:

• 4.12 ERA
• 3.77 FIP
• 1.306 WHIP
• 1,259 strikeouts
• 392 walks
• 150 home runs allowed
• 1,091 hits allowed
• 559 runs allowed
• 10.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio according to the supplied data

The most important statistic is the 3.77 FIP.

Philadelphia’s ERA is higher than its FIP, suggesting that the staff’s underlying performance may be better than its traditional run-prevention numbers indicate.

The Phillies have also generated 1,259 strikeouts, substantially more than St. Louis’ 1,000.

That gives Philadelphia a potentially important advantage late in games because strikeout ability can help pitchers escape high-leverage situations without relying on balls in play.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Bullpen Comparison

The bullpen could ultimately decide whether the moneyline prediction is correct.

St. Louis relievers have:

• 38 saves
• 23 blown saves
• 62.3% save rate
• 85 holds
• 198 inherited runners
• 38.4% inherited-runner scoring rate
• 163 high-leverage appearances

Those numbers contain both positives and negatives.

The Cardinals’ 85 holds rank fifth in MLB, which suggests their bullpen has been capable of protecting leads before the ninth inning.

However, a 62.3% save rate is not especially impressive.

The 23 blown saves are also significant.

That creates a concern for anyone backing St. Louis at +102.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has been more reliable.

The Phillies have:

• 56 holds
• 16 blown saves
• 68.6% save rate
• 109 save situations
• 36.9% inherited-runner scoring rate
• 121 high-leverage appearances

Philadelphia’s bullpen does not dominate every category, but the 68.6% save rate provides a meaningful advantage.

If the game is close entering the late innings, the Phillies appear to have the more trustworthy bullpen profile.

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Defense Could Help St. Louis

One area where St. Louis has an advantage is defense.

The Cardinals have a .988 fielding percentage, ranking fourth in MLB according to the supplied statistics.

They have also turned 127 double plays.

Philadelphia has a .986 fielding percentage and 77 double plays.

That makes St. Louis the better defensive team based on the numbers provided.

This matters because the Phillies are relying on Painter, whose career numbers indicate that he can put runners on base.

Strong defense behind Pallante could also help the Cardinals keep Philadelphia from turning baserunners into runs.

However, the defensive advantage alone is not enough to overcome the Phillies’ pitching and home-field advantages.

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Why Under 9 Runs Is the Preferred Total

The second part of the Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction is Under 9 runs.

There are several reasons for that selection.

Neither offense ranks among MLB’s elite scoring teams.

St. Louis is averaging 4.4 runs per game.

Philadelphia is averaging 4.48 runs per game.

Adding those averages together produces 8.88 runs per game, which is almost exactly the posted total of 9.

At first glance, that might make the over appear equally attractive.

But season-long averages do not account for the matchup-specific pitching environment.

Philadelphia has a 3.77 FIP.

St. Louis has a 4.06 FIP.

Neither starting pitcher is a dominant career run-prevention option, but both offenses have limitations.

The Cardinals have a .382 slugging percentage.

The Phillies have a .401 slugging percentage.

Those numbers suggest that sustained scoring could be difficult.

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How the Under Could Win

For the under to cash, the most likely scenario is a competitive game where neither offense produces a major crooked number.

A potential path is:

Cardinals 3, Phillies 4

That produces seven total runs.

Another possibility is:

Cardinals 3, Phillies 5

That produces eight.

Even a 5-4 Phillies victory would finish at nine runs, depending on how the sportsbook grades the exact total.

The key for the under is preventing either lineup from exploding for five or six runs in a single inning.

St. Louis has not been an elite offensive team, and Philadelphia has also averaged fewer than 4.5 runs per game.

That gives the under a reasonable statistical foundation.

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The Biggest Risk to the Under

The primary threat to the total is Andrew Painter.

His career:

• 6.45 ERA
• 6.40 FIP
• 1.551 WHIP
• 10.4 H/9

creates obvious concerns.

If St. Louis gets to Painter early, the game could become much more difficult for an under bettor.

A three-run or four-run first few innings could force Philadelphia to use its bullpen earlier than expected.

There is also the possibility that both offenses take advantage of the starting pitchers and turn the game into a high-scoring affair.

Therefore, the under is not without risk.

The selection is based on the overall offensive profiles, the total of nine and Philadelphia’s superior team-level pitching metrics.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction: Key Statistical Comparison

This table shows why the matchup is relatively close despite Philadelphia being favored.

St. Louis has advantages in batting OBP, team ERA, fielding and starting-pitcher experience.

Philadelphia has the stronger record, better slugging percentage, more home runs, lower FIP, lower WHIP, more strikeouts, fewer walks and better bullpen save percentage.

The statistical balance ultimately favors Philadelphia.

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What Is the Best Cardinals vs Phillies Bet?

The best bet is Philadelphia -122.

The moneyline price is not excessively expensive, and Philadelphia has enough statistical advantages to justify being favored.

The Phillies are particularly appealing because their team-level pitching metrics are stronger than their 4.12 ERA indicates.

Their 3.77 FIP is the best pitching metric in the matchup.

The home-field advantage is another factor.

Philadelphia does not need to dominate the game to justify -122. A one-run victory is enough.

That is important because this appears to be a relatively competitive matchup.

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Should You Bet Cardinals +102?

There is an argument for the Cardinals at +102.

St. Louis has a slightly better team ERA, a higher OBP and better defensive numbers.

Pallante also has much more MLB experience than Painter.

If Painter’s career struggles continue, the Cardinals could absolutely win this game.

However, the Cardinals’ bullpen has blown 23 saves and has a 62.3% save rate.

That is concerning in a game projected to be close.

At plus money, St. Louis has some appeal, but the broader statistical profile still points toward Philadelphia.

The Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction therefore remains the Phillies rather than the underdog Cardinals.

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Who Has the Better Offense?

The Phillies have the slight offensive advantage.

Both teams are hitting .241.

St. Louis has the better OBP at .317 compared with .312 for Philadelphia.

However, Philadelphia has a .401 slugging percentage versus .382 for St. Louis and has hit 155 home runs compared with 133.

The Phillies have therefore demonstrated more power.

St. Louis has scored 572 runs, while Philadelphia has scored 574.

That is almost identical.

So this is not a matchup where Philadelphia possesses an enormous offensive advantage.

Instead, the Phillies’ edge comes from the combination of slightly better power, stronger pitching metrics, home-field advantage and a better overall record.

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Who Has the Better Pitching Staff?

Philadelphia has the better pitching staff based on the supplied underlying numbers.

The Phillies have a 3.77 FIP, while the Cardinals have a 4.06 FIP.

Philadelphia also has 1,259 strikeouts compared with 1,000 for St. Louis.

The Phillies have walked 392 hitters, compared with 437 for the Cardinals.

That combination gives Philadelphia the edge.

The Cardinals’ 4.04 ERA is slightly better than Philadelphia’s 4.12 ERA, but FIP suggests the Phillies’ underlying pitching performance is stronger.

That is why the FIP difference should carry more weight when making the Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction.

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Who Has the Better Bullpen?

Philadelphia has the better bullpen based on save percentage.

The Phillies have converted 68.6% of their save opportunities, while the Cardinals have converted only 62.3%.

St. Louis has 23 blown saves.

Philadelphia has 16.

That is an important late-game difference.

If Philadelphia takes a narrow lead into the final innings, its bullpen numbers give the favorite a better chance of preserving that advantage.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction for August 22, 2026

Saturday’s matchup sets up as a relatively close game.

The Cardinals have enough offensive and defensive ability to keep the game competitive, but Philadelphia’s overall profile is stronger.

The Phillies have:

• A better overall record
• Home-field advantage
• A lower FIP
• More strikeouts
• Fewer walks
• More home runs
• A better bullpen save rate
• A slightly higher scoring average

The Cardinals have:

• Better team ERA
• Better OBP
• Better fielding percentage
• More defensive double plays
• A more experienced starting pitcher

The biggest swing factor is Painter.

If Painter delivers a quality start, Philadelphia becomes considerably more attractive at -122.

If he struggles badly, St. Louis has a realistic chance to win outright.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction: Final Pick

The recommended Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction is:

Philadelphia Phillies -122

Under 9 Runs

Philadelphia is the preferred moneyline side because the Phillies have the better overall record, stronger underlying pitching metrics and home-field advantage. Their 3.77 FIP is particularly encouraging compared with St. Louis’ 4.06 FIP.

The total also leans toward the under because both offenses average fewer than 4.5 runs per game, and neither team owns an elite slugging profile. Philadelphia’s .401 SLG is solid but not overwhelming, while St. Louis sits at .382.

The primary concern is Painter’s 6.45 career ERA and 6.40 FIP. That makes the moneyline more complicated than the team records alone suggest.

Still, Philadelphia’s superior bullpen and overall pitching staff provide protection if Painter exits early.

Final Pick: Phillies -122 and Under 9 runs.

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Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction FAQ

Who is favored in Cardinals vs Phillies?

The Philadelphia Phillies are favored at -122 on the moneyline. The St. Louis Cardinals are listed at +102.

What is the Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction?

The recommended pick is Philadelphia -122 on the moneyline with Under 9 runs as the preferred total.

What is the Cardinals vs Phillies over/under?

The total is set at 9 runs.

Who are the Cardinals vs Phillies starting pitchers?

Andre Pallante is expected to start for St. Louis, while Andrew Painter is expected to start for Philadelphia.

Where is Cardinals vs Phillies being played?

The game is scheduled to take place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

When is Cardinals vs Phillies?

The game is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026.

What time is Cardinals vs Phillies?

The supplied matchup information does not provide a first-pitch time, so bettors should check the latest official game schedule before wagering.

What is the Cardinals’ record?

The Cardinals enter the matchup with a 66-63 record.

What is the Phillies’ record?

Philadelphia enters the matchup with a 70-58 record.

How many runs do the Cardinals average?

St. Louis is averaging 4.4 runs per game, ranking 18th in MLB according to the supplied statistics.

How many runs do the Phillies average?

Philadelphia is averaging 4.48 runs per game, ranking 16th in MLB.

Which team has the better offense?

Philadelphia has a slight overall offensive advantage because it has a higher slugging percentage and more home runs, although St. Louis owns the higher OBP.

Which team has the better pitching staff?

Philadelphia has the stronger underlying pitching profile, with a 3.77 FIP compared with St. Louis’ 4.06 FIP.

Is Andrew Painter a concern for the Phillies?

Yes. Painter’s career statistics are a major concern. He has a 6.45 ERA, 1.551 WHIP and 6.40 FIP over 85 career MLB innings.

Is Andre Pallante a better starting pitcher than Andrew Painter?

Based strictly on career experience and the supplied career statistics, Pallante has the more established MLB track record. He has a 4.15 career ERA and 4.09 FIP over 596 innings.

Why pick Philadelphia if Painter has struggled?

The Phillies’ overall pitching staff, bullpen, home-field advantage and stronger team record offset some of the risk associated with Painter.

Why bet Under 9 runs?

Both offenses average fewer than 4.5 runs per game, and neither team has an elite slugging percentage. Philadelphia also owns a strong 3.77 team FIP.

What is the biggest risk to the Under?

The biggest risk is Painter’s career pitching profile. If St. Louis scores several runs against him early, the game could move over the total.

Which team has the better bullpen?

Philadelphia has the better save percentage, converting 68.6% of save opportunities compared with 62.3% for St. Louis.

Which team has the better defense?

St. Louis has the better fielding percentage, .988 compared with Philadelphia’s .986, and the Cardinals have turned 127 double plays.

Is Cardinals +102 a good bet?

The Cardinals have some value at +102 because of their stronger defense, higher OBP and more experienced starter. However, the overall statistical profile favors Philadelphia.

Is Phillies -122 a good bet?

Yes. Philadelphia -122 is the preferred moneyline play because of the Phillies’ better record, home-field advantage, stronger FIP, superior strikeout numbers and more reliable bullpen.

What is the safest Cardinals vs Phillies betting pick?

There is no guaranteed MLB wager, but based on the supplied statistics, Phillies -122 is the preferred side.

What is the best Cardinals vs Phillies parlay leg?

The preferred straight betting combination is Philadelphia moneyline and Under 9 runs. Bettors should evaluate parlay pricing separately because combining wagers changes the required probability for profitability.

What is the final Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Prediction?

Philadelphia Phillies -122 and Under 9 runs.

The Phillies have the stronger overall profile, while the relatively modest offensive production from both clubs makes the under attractive at a total of nine. The main variable is Painter, but Philadelphia’s team pitching and bullpen numbers provide enough support to make the home favorite the recommended play.

Final Betting Card

Cardinals vs Phillies Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies -122
Cardinals vs Phillies Total: Under 9 runs
Best Side: Phillies -122
Best Total: Under 9
Starting Pitchers: Andre Pallante vs Andrew Painter
Final Prediction: Phillies win in a lower-scoring game
Official Pick: Philadelphia -122 and Under 9 runs