Bo Nix 2026 Season Outlook: 3 Key Areas for Denver Broncos QB Development

Even though Bo Nix has already led the Denver Broncos to the postseason in both of his NFL seasons, there is still a great deal of potential for him to develop in order to be considered by everyone as one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League.

There is a consensus among Patriots fans that Matthew Stafford was the best quarterback in the National Football League in the year 2025. I had a conversation about this earlier this month. Let’s take a look at a few areas where Nix has room for improvement in the year 2025.

Play Action Passing

Nix had 478 pure dropbacks and 186 play-action throws, which accounts for 28% of his total play-action passes, as reported by Sumersports.com. This does not take into account the five RPOs because Nix had 669 dropbacks in 2025, which is 664, which is the most number in the NFL. 478 plus 186 equals 664.His score of 657 placed him in second place. One of the most obvious ways that Nix can “improve” is by ensuring that the Broncos have a more effective running game. Play action is far more effective when it is combined with a run game that the opposition defense is afraid of.

For the benefit of those who are unaware, expected points added (EPA) is a statistical measure that examines the potential impact of yards gained or lost on a play on the probability of scoring points on a drive in the past.EPA is an abbreviation for “Expected Points Added” in the National Football League. In football, it is a more advanced statistic that determines the total number of points won or lost on a single play based on the current state of the game.

During the year 2025, Stafford and Daniel Jones were the quarterbacks whose offenses made the highest utilization of playaction. They were the only two individuals who had a score higher than 36%. To put that into perspective, Joe Burrow’s offense only utilized playaction 17.6% of the time (see below for more information).

Lamar Jackson was able to achieve the best EPA/play on playaction throws in 2025, which was 0.55, because to the fact that the Ravens possessed one of the best run games in the National Football League. When it came to playaction passes, Lamar had an incredible 79% completion rate percentage. There were 24 qualifiers, and Bo Nix had an EPA/play on playaction of 0.07, which placed him 19th overall. I am going to guess that a significant portion of Bo’s lack of success was due to the fact that the defense did not respect the run game. Despite the fact that J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey both faced a high percentage of stacked boxes, it is possible that Bo was simply not very adept at playaction throws (yet). Data on rushing is taken from NFL Next Gen Stats and may be found below. As a sign of respect for the running back and scorn for the quarterback, stacked boxes consist of eight or more defenders.

Throwing Into Tight Windows

One further area in which Nix has room for improvement is his self-assurance when it comes to throwing into tight windows. A measurement for this is available from NGS, and they refer to it as aggressiveness:The amount of throwing attempts that a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage is a measure of aggressiveness. Tight coverage is defined as a situation in which a defender is within one yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. As a percentage of total passing attempts, AGG is displayed as a percentage of efforts into tight windows.

When it came to volume passing in 2025, Caleb Williams and Bo were the two “least aggressive” passers. This could be a result of their unwillingness to make mistakes by throwing into tight coverage, but it could also be a function of their lack of belief in their receivers’ ability to win on contested throws. Both of these possibilities are possible. Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford were the quarterbacks that displayed the most aggressive offenses among those who started full-time. Each of the three is a well-established starter, so there is no risk of their being left on the bench if they make a mistake. That being said, Drake Maye ranked sixth in aggressiveness, and the two quarterbacks who were leading the pack were Davis Mills and Marcus Mariota, both of whom were journeymen and had nothing to lose. The complete table can be found by following the link to Twixter. In the year 2025, both of those individuals tossed a significant number of YOLO balls, with a significant number of Mariota’s coming against the Broncos. There was an absolute difference of 9.1% between the most aggressive and the least aggressive players among full-time starts. The most aggressive quarterback made one of these throws on one out of every ten attempts, while the least aggressive quarterback made one out of every five attempts.

Intermediate Distance Throws

There is also room for improvement in Bo’s intermediate depth throws, which have a target range of 10 to 19 yards from the line of sight. This information comes from SISdatahub.com, which states that Bo had an IQR (their proprietary passer rating) of 66 and finished 24th out of 29 qualifiers on intermediate throws.

IQR is a proprietary quarterback metric developed by Sports Info Solutions. It is based on the classic Passer Rating formula and takes into account the worth of a quarterback regardless of the outcomes that are beyond his control, such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, and other similar outcomes.

Even when compared to quarterbacks in their first or second year, this was a failure.

In addition, Bo only achieved a 37% success rate in the middle of the field with his intermediate throws. During the previous season, only Michael Penix had a lower percentage, which was 35%.When it came to medium distance throws, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott threw far more to the center of the field, with 69% and 68% respectively. I do not know how much of this was due to Bo’s reluctance to pass there and how much of this was due to playcalling and/or receivers’ failure to get open there since he was unwilling to throw into tight windows. I do not know how much each of these factors contributed to Bo’s situation. I have high hopes that Jaylen Waddle will assist in opening up the middle of the field for Bo in the intermediate distance.

Bo has an IQR of 88, which places him 12th out of 29 when it comes to deep throws.When it came to 2025, Jaxson Dart had the weakest score, with 45, while Justin Herbert had the best score, with 120. I remember that Bo had approximately ten drops on deep throws, despite the fact that he had 70 deep throws and completed 25 of them. Last season, Stafford had the most deep completions with 36, which he accomplished on 78 throws, making him the person with the most. In the year 2025, only four quarterbacks, namely Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, and Lamar Jackson, were able to complete fifty percent or more of their deep throws.

The following is a breakdown of the passing charts that I calculated for each and every regular season game that Nix played throughout the year 2025 (at NGS). Later on in the season, Bo did a better job of throwing beyond 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.

In the beginning of the season, there were almost no passes that were longer than ten yards from the line of sight (LOS), but by the end of the season, there were plenty of throws that were further than that. The move could have also been a deliberate attempt to take advantage of what the defense was providing.

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Bo Nix 2026 Season Outlook: 3 Key Areas for Denver Broncos QB Development