Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction and Pick XBOX BOWL Picks, College Football Picks

There will be a thrilling postseason game between the Missouri State Bears and the Arkansas State Red Wolves, which will be featured in the Xbox Bowl in the year 2025. It is planned that this game will take place in the Ford Center in The Star, which is located in Frisco, Texas. On Thursday, December 18, 2025, at nine o’clock in the evening, fans will be able to watch all of the action on ESPN2.

With a regular season record of 7-5, the Missouri State Bears, who are members of Conference USA, are now eligible to compete in the postseason. With a record of 4-2 away from their home field at Robert W. Plaster Stadium, the Bears have demonstrated their ability to perform well when they are away from their stadium. The team is hoping to make the most of their postseason opportunity, despite the fact that they have suffered defeats to Louisiana Tech and Kennesaw State in previous games.

In the meantime, the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who are a part of the Sun Belt Conference, ended their regular season with a record of 6-6. The Red Wolves have demonstrated their ability to persevere in close games, as evidenced by their victory over Appalachian State, which was decided by a razor-thin margin of 30–29. Due to the fact that the game will be played inside of a dome, both sides will be attempting to carry out their game plans in an efficient manner without any hindrance from the weather.

During the course of this season, Arkansas State’s offense has demonstrated significant growth. The club has made great use of its aerial attack, as seen by the fact that it ranks 39th in passing yards with 3,089 yards.

They are now ranked 91st in running yards, which indicates that their rushing game might use some improvement. It is possible that this facet will serve as a focus point for subsequent innovation.

The ability of the Red Wolves to generate turnovers has been a significant strength for the team’s defensive performance. They have a standing of eighth in interceptions and seventh in fumble recoveries.

As a result of their fearsome pass rush, they have accumulated 31 sacks, which places them eleventh in this category. A significant component of their defense plan has been the adoption of this aggressive stance.

Jaylen Raynor, the quarterback, has been an outstanding performance over the course of the season, ranking 19th nationally in passing yards. Not only does his leadership on the field shine through, but it also propels the squad ahead.

Corey Rucker and Chauncy Cobb have proven to be dependable targets for the people on the receiving end. During the passing game, Rucker’s 863 receiving yards and Cobb’s 767 yards respectively emphasize the impact of both players.

The Red Wolves are coming off of a victory over Appalachian State that was decided by a score of 30–29. The fact that they threw for 363 yards was the highlight of their performance, which demonstrated how effective their passing game is.

The fact that they were able to capitalize on passing opportunities proved to be vital, despite the fact that they were outpossessed on the ground. The victory could provide them a boost of confidence as they prepare to play their next game.

The fact that running back Ja’Quez Cross is sidelined with an ACL injury has an effect on the team’s rushing depth. There are a number of additional players, including Quincy Wright and Tristian Smith, who are uncertain due to injuries that have not been previously publicized.

Both the offensive and defensive dynamics of the squad could be impacted differently depending on their status. The preparations that Arkansas State University is making will require careful monitoring of their availability.

Throughout the 2025 season, the offensive talents of the Missouri State Bears have demonstrated a great amount of improved performance. Their strong aerial attack has been an essential part of their plan, as seen by the fact that they are ranked 24th in passing yards with 3287 respectively. On the other hand, their running offense is not as effective, as they hold the 108th spot with 1444 yards.

The Bears have a consistent record of first downs, as evidenced by their ranking of 50th with 242 first downs. This figure demonstrates that they are able to ensure that drives are maintained and that chains are moved efficiently.

On defense, Missouri State has been struggling, as seen by the fact that they have allowed 340 points and are ranked 122nd in terms of points against. In spite of these obstacles, their defense has been successful in generating turnovers, as evidenced by the fact that they have recovered eight fumbles and eight interceptions, which places them ninth and seventh, respectively.

With 22 sacks, they are ranked twenty-first overall in the league. Their pass rush has been a shining area for them. There are times when the ability to exert pressure on rival quarterbacks can be a decisive factor in games that are tight.

A formidable passing attack has been exhibited by the Bears in recent games, as evidenced by their performance against Louisiana Tech, in which they threw for 294 yards. They managed to rack up more first downs than their opponent, despite the fact that they were defeated by a score of 42-30.

In spite of this, their running defense was not up to par, as they allowed 392 yards of rushing against Louisiana Tech defense. The fact that they are preparing for future opponents may cause them to be concerned about this.

Jacob Clark, the quarterback, has been an outstanding performer over the course of the season, placing 28th in the league with 2895 passing yards. It is due in large part to his leadership and accuracy in the passing game that the Bears have been able to reach their offensive potential.

To add insult to injury, running back Shomari Lawrence has also made a huge contribution, as he has rushed for 964 yards and scored seven touchdowns, despite the fact that the squad has struggled in the rushing department as a whole.

It is possible that injuries will have an effect on the Bears’ starting lineup, as several key players are listed as questionable or out. It is especially alarming that Ryan Williams and Hutson Lillibridge are currently out of action, since their injuries might potentially have an impact on the offensive line and the defensive line, respectively.

Due to the fact that the squad is dealing with these unpredictabilities, the forthcoming games will require a significant amount of depth and agility.

The Arkansas State Razorbacks come into the Xbox Bowl with a strong record against the spread (ATS), especially when considering themselves to be underdogs. It is clear that the Red Wolves are able to perform admirably in situations where they are considered to be underdogs, as seen by the fact that they have a perfect 5-0 overall record in their past five games this season.

As an additional point of interest, Arkansas State has been successful after a victory, going 4-0 against the spread after a victory in the year 2025. This pattern demonstrates that they are able to create momentum and continue covering spreads after achieving a victory, which is something that they did recently against Appalachian State by covering spreads.

The defense of Missouri State has been a weak issue throughout the season, as evidenced by their ranking of 122nd in points against. This vulnerability, in conjunction with Arkansas State’s outstanding home ATS record of 5-1 in their previous six home games, provides the Red Wolves with a strong opportunity to cover the spread and possibly win the game outright.

The prediction is that Arkansas State will cover the +2.5 spread in this matchup, with a predicted final score that supports their potential to compete closely with Missouri State. This prediction is based on the facts that have been discussed. In the end, it is anticipated that Arkansas State will win with a score of 27 to Missouri State’s 24.

✅ Our Missouri State vs Arkansas State Prediction: Arkansas State

 

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