Bills vs Steelers Prediction and Pick, Week 13, NFL Betting Picks

Bills vs Steelers Prediction and Pick, Week 13, NFL Betting Picks

Bills vs Steelers Prediction and Pick, Week 13, NFL Betting Picks. Place a bet on this game with the best odds.

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Bills vs Steelers Prediction

Now we have the Bills vs Steelers Prediction for both teams.

In the event that you are looking for a glimmer of optimism to cling to in relation to the Buffalo Bills‘ diminishing odds of winning the AFC East, you need not look any further than the year 2021.

In that same year, the Bills were in a similar tricky situation as they attempted to capture back-to-back division crowns for the first time since their run of four consecutive titles between the years 1988 and 1991.

As a result of a heartbreaking defeat to the Patriots by a score of 14-10 in a hurricane at Highmark Stadium, followed by a gut-wrenching loss to their archrival Tom Brady and the Buccaneers by a score of 33-27 in overtime, the Bills were sitting at 7-6, they were trailing New England by two games plus the head-to-head tiebreaker, and they were on the verge of being the seventh seed in the American Football Conference, just ahead of the Steelers.

Despite the fact that there were only four games remaining to play, time was extremely limited. However, three of those games were played at home against the terrible Panthers and Jets, as well as the below-average Falcons, in addition to a massive road test versus New England. The Patriots concluded with a record of 1-3, while the Bills went on to win all four of their games, putting Buffalo in first place.

This year, the deficit that the Bills have incurred is even more significant. They are now ranked seventh in the American Football Conference, only a hair ahead of the Steelers, and they are behind the Patriots by two and a half games, in addition to the tiebreaker.

However, if there is one thing that fans of the Buffalo Bills can take solace in, it is the fact that they still have six games left to play in order to climb out of the deep hole that they have dug for themselves. The first of these games will take place on Sunday, when they travel to Pittsburgh for what is now turning out to be a very important game at Acrisure Stadium.

Following the devastating loss to the Texans by a score of 23-19, head coach Sean McDermott made the following statement: “Let’s start with just taking it one game at a time.” “That is that which we are required to perform. Despite the fact that we are making projections about the postseason and other things, we need to concentrate on taking things one game at a time and one week at a time, and we need to be willing to embrace the grind that comes along with it.

“No one is praising us for having already qualified for the playoffs, because we are going to be playing away from home in the playoffs. The next week, we will be playing a game away from home, and in order to continue to put ourselves in a position to win games, we will need to make some alterations. In addition, it is not going to be simple. It is imperative that we devise a strategy that would allow us to win one game at a time, and that is where we are going to begin.

Even though the Bills were defeated by Houston, Khalil Shakir still managed to rack up a season-high 110 yards receiving for the team.
Attack while you are in the air. Against the defense of the Steelers, opposing teams are throwing the ball on 62.5% of plays, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is a relatively average one, which is rare for a team coached by Mike Tomlin. The Steelers defense is especially weak against the pass, as it ranks 31st in the league with 258.7 yards received per game.

Due to the fact that the Bills’ pass offense has not been particularly effective this season, it is clear that nobody has been particularly frightened by it. However, Joshua Palmer is beginning to rediscover his rhythm after missing three games, Khalil Shakir is coming off of his best game of the year in Houston, and there is a possibility that the Bills will be able to get tight end Dalton Kincaid back. In addition, it is important to keep an eye on the fact that Joey Porter Jr., the top cornerback in Pittsburgh, did not finish the game against the Bears due to a hip injury. If he is unable to participate on Sunday, it would be a significant loss.

During the current season, Jaylen Warren has led the Steelers in rushing yards with 604 and has also caught 25 passes for 219 yards.
Using running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, you can put pressure on the Bills’ terrible run defense. Tomlin has already stated that Aaron Rodgers will return for the Bills, despite the fact that Rodgers did not play in Sunday’s game against Chicago. In spite of the fact that the future Hall of Famer has been on the field, Pittsburgh’s passing game has been below average. On the other hand, despite the fact that there are a lot of things to complain about regarding the Bills’ defense, it really ranks first in the league against the pass, allowing only 168.2 yards per game.

However, one of the reasons behind this is that the opposing teams are aware that they do not need to pass in order to be successful. The Buffalo Bills have been so poor at stopping the ground game that they have ranked 31st in running yards per play (5.3) and runs of at least 10 yards (48). As a result, they have carried the ball on 48.4% of their plays against Buffalo.

In spite of the fact that the Steelers’ passing game has been significantly better than its run game, Warren and Gainwell finished with a combined total of 160 yards in the game against the Bears, another team with a bad run defense. This rushing approach was instrumental in the production of 21 points on offense (they had one defensive touchdown) while Mason Rudolph was the quarterback.

Spencer Brown sustained a shoulder injury while playing for the Houston Texans, and it is extremely improbable that he will be able to play against the Pittsburgh Steelers, even if he is given a few extra days off. This pretty certainly indicates that Ryan Van Demark will start at right tackle, and the outstanding edge rusher TJ Watt will be the opponent that he will be going up against almost exclusively all the time.

Watt is no longer the destructive force he was between the years 2020 and 2023, when he was nominated for four first team All-Pro honors, won defensive player of the year (2021), and led the league in sacks three times, including a record-tying 22.5 in 2021. Watt is now 31 years old. Despite this, Watt has racked up seven sacks so far this season, which is the same number as Buffalo’s underperforming edge rusher pair of Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau have combined for. Because Watt will present a significant obstacle for Van Demark, it is possible that the Bills may need to contribute more than they typically do in order to assist the backup-level overtime player.

This one is not too difficult for me to handle. I do not believe that the Steelers are particularly good, and if the Bills are unable to defeat them, even though the game will take place away from home in a challenging atmosphere, then we should not even be considering the possibility of Buffalo being a postseason club.

The Steelers are in a scenario that is just as desperate in the standings as Buffalo is since they are currently on the outside of the top seven. It will not be simple because games against the Steelers are rarely easy.

However, the Bills are the superior team in this matchup, with the superior quarterback. If Josh Allen and RB James Cook are able to receive any assistance from the rest of the offensive skill players, and if the defense, which has been plagued by injuries, is able to play as it did in the second half against Houston, then the Bills should be able to win the game.

Our Bills vs Steelers Pick: BILLS

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Trends

  • Over the past nine games, Buffalo has a record of 3-6 against the spread.
  • Over the past seven games, the total has been under in five of Buffalo’s games.
  • Buffalo has a winning record of 12-6 in its previous 18 games.
  • After five games against Pittsburgh, Buffalo has a record of 4-1 against the spread.
  • Buffalo has a winning record of 4-1 against Pittsburgh in its last five games.
  • In four of Buffalo’s most recent five games played away from home, the total has scored UNDER.
  • When Buffalo has been playing on the road versus Pittsburgh, the total has been UNDER in seven of the last eight games that Buffalo has played.
  • When Buffalo has played an opponent from the American Football Conference, the team has a record of 1-4 against the spread in its last five games.
  • Over the course of its last thirteen games versus teams from the American Football Conference North division, Buffalo has a head-to-head record of 9-4.
  • In the seven games that Buffalo has played in the month of November, the team has a winning record of 5-2.
  • Over the past six games, Pittsburgh has a record of 2-4 against the spread.
  • In its previous six games, Pittsburgh has a record of 2-4 against the spread.
  • There have been four of Pittsburgh’s last five games against Buffalo in which the total has been UNDER.
  • In its previous five games played at home, Pittsburgh has a record of 4-1 against the spread.
  • Seven out of the last eight games that Pittsburgh has played at home against Buffalo have resulted in the total rating going UNDER.
  • Over the course of the last six games that Pittsburgh has played against teams from the American Football Conference, the total has been underrated in five of those games.
  • Over the course of its last thirteen games versus teams from the American Football Conference East division, Pittsburgh has a winning percentage of 4-9.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have a record of 8-4 against the spread in their previous 12 games played in the month of November.
  • Over the course of the 13th week, Pittsburgh has a record of 7-3 against the spread.

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Head to Head

Date Team Opp Close Result ATS/OU
Aug 17, 2024 Bills @Steelers +2.5 / 38 Won 9-3 Won / Under
Jan 15, 2024 Bills Steelers -10 / 39.5 Won 31-17 Won / Over
Aug 19, 2023 Bills @Steelers -1 / 42.5 Lost 15-27 Lost / Under
Oct 9, 2022 Bills Steelers -14 / 45 Won 38-3 Won / Under
Sep 12, 2021 Bills Steelers -6.5 / 48 Lost 16-23 Lost / Under
Dec 13, 2020 Bills Steelers -2 / 48.5 Won 26-15 Won / Under
Dec 15, 2019 Bills @Steelers +1 / 37 Won 17-10 Won / Under
Dec 11, 2016 Bills @Steelers -1 / 45.5 Lost 0-0 Lost / Under
Aug 29, 2015 Bills @Steelers +3 / 41 Lost 0-0 Won / Under
Aug 16, 2014 Bills Steelers -1 / 41 Lost 0-0 Lost / Under

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Buffalo Injury List

Pos Player Status
WR Curtis Samuel (Elbow) Out
WR Mecole Hardman (Calf) Out
WR Joshua Palmer (Ankle) Questionable
TE Dalton Kincaid (Hamstring) Out
WR Joshua Palmer (Ankle) Out
WR Joshua Palmer (Ankle) Questionable

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Pittsburgh Injury List

Pos Player Status
QB Aaron Rodgers (Wrist) Out
QB Aaron Rodgers (Wrist) Questionable
QB Aaron Rodgers (Wrist) Out
RB Jaylen Warren (Ankle) Questionable

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Buffalo Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/20/25
L 23-19
L-3.5
U46.5
L-175
11/16/25
W 44-32
W-5.5
O49.5
W-230
11/09/25
L 30-13
L-5.5
U48.5
L-225
11/02/25
W 28-21
W-2.5
O48.5
W-135
10/26/25
W 40-9
W-7.0
O47.5
W-310
10/13/25
L 24-14
L-5.5
U48.5
L-225
10/05/25
L 23-20
L-8.5
U46.5
L-380
9/28/25
W 31-19
L-12.5
O46.5
W-650
9/18/25
W 31-21
W-8.5
O48.5
W-380
9/14/25
W 30-10
W-8.5
U44.5
W-380

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Pittsburgh Last 10 Games

Date Opponent Score Spread Total Moneyline
11/23/25
L 31-28
L+2.5
O44.5
L+110
11/16/25
W 34-12
W+1.5
U46.5
WEVEN
11/09/25
L 25-10
L+4.5
U43.5
L+164
11/02/25
W 27-20
W-3.5
O44.5
W-175
10/26/25
L 35-25
L+1.5
O44.5
LEVEN
10/16/25
L 33-31
W+4.5
O46.5
L+170
10/12/25
W 23-9
W-6.5
U42.5
W-278
9/28/25
W 24-21
W+2.5
O41.5
W+114
9/21/25
W 21-14
W+1.5
U43.5
W+102
9/14/25
L 31-17
L-1.5
O43.5
L-122

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Buffalo Offense

Overall

BUF Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank PIT Defense
28.27 5 Points Scored 20 23.91
234.64 9 Passing Yards 31 258.73
147.18 1 Rushing Yards 15 105.73
32:22 3 Time on Field 29 32:08
62.36 14 Number of Plays 32 67.82
6.12 4 Yards Per Play 17 5.37

Scoring

BUF Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank PIT Defense
28.27 5 Points Scored 20 23.91
6.18 5 First Quarter 19 4.36
7.27 14 Second Quarter 6 5.45
6.82 3 Third Quarter 9 3.64
8.00 7 Fourth Quarter 31 10.45

Passing

BUF Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank PIT Defense
234.64 9 Passing Yards 31 258.73
30.27 25 Pass Attempts 32 39.27
21.00 16 Pass Completions 32 25.27
2.55 20 Sacks 5 3.09
16.55 11 Sack Yards 26 18.91
11.17 5 Yards Per Pass 20 10.24

Rushing

BUF Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank PIT Defense
147.18 1 Rushing Yards 15 105.73
29.55 4 Rush Attempts 12 25.45
4.98 3 Yards Per Rush 16 4.15

Turn Overs

BUF Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank PIT Defense
0.82 22 Interceptions 13 0.82
1.18 25 Fumbles 3 1.45
0.55 21 Fumbles Lost 1 1.00
1.36 24 Total Turnovers 3 1.82
6.73 16 Penalties 24 6.09
56.09 19 Penalty Yards 17 54.91

Drives & Special Teams

BUF Offense Off. Rank Stat Def. Rank PIT Defense
32:22 3 Time on Field 29 32:08
62.36 14 Number of Plays 32 67.82
6.12 4 Yards Per Play 17 5.37
3.09 5 Punts 24 3.18
44.62 29 Punt Average 24 48.43
135.73 10 Return Yards 28 147.73

Bills vs Steelers Prediction: Pittsburgh Offense

Overall

BUF Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank PIT Offense
22.91 16 Points Scored 11 24.91
168.18 1 Passing Yards 22 195.09
148.91 30 Rushing Yards 26 97.09
27:37 2 Time on Field 29 27:51
57.82 5 Number of Plays 30 56.73
5.48 22 Yards Per Play 21 5.15

Scoring

BUF Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank PIT Offense
22.91 16 Points Scored 11 24.91
4.27 14 First Quarter 13 5.18
9.00 28 Second Quarter 8 8.00
3.27 4 Third Quarter 24 3.09
6.36 13 Fourth Quarter 5 8.64

Passing

BUF Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank PIT Offense
168.18 1 Passing Yards 22 195.09
27.45 1 Pass Attempts 22 30.73
16.73 1 Pass Completions 17 20.91
2.36 15 Sacks 10 1.91
14.64 15 Sack Yards 25 12.09
10.05 15 Yards Per Pass 24 9.33

Rushing

BUF Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank PIT Offense
148.91 30 Rushing Yards 26 97.09
28.00 24 Rush Attempts 26 24.09
5.32 31 Yards Per Rush 23 4.03

Turn Overs

BUF Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank PIT Offense
0.64 17 Interceptions 21 0.73
1.18 9 Fumbles 17 1.00
0.55 11 Fumbles Lost 12 0.36
1.18 12 Total Turnovers 14 1.09
5.00 32 Penalties 9 6.18
42.00 30 Penalty Yards 8 46.36

Drives & Special Teams

BUF Defense Def. Rank Stat Off. Rank PIT Offense
27:37 2 Time on Field 29 27:51
57.82 5 Number of Plays 30 56.73
5.48 22 Yards Per Play 21 5.15
4.09 8 Punts 17 3.45
48.07 20 Punt Average 21 46.38
140.45 23 Return Yards 19 121.55

 

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