Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction and Pick, Week 11

The Chiefs and Broncos are set for another AFC West showdown in Week 11, and this one has major implications for both teams as they continue to fight for playoff position.

An eighteen-game schedule kicks off on Thursday night with the Patriots taking on the Jets. It is an opportunity for New England to increase its advantage atop the AFC East because they are the big favorites to win at home. Other noteworthy games that will be broadcast on Monday Night Football include the Broncos taking on the Chiefs, the Eagles taking on the Lions, and the Raiders taking on the Cowboys. A match between the Dolphins and the Commanders will also conclude the NFL’s foreign campaign in Madrid. Alright, let’s get started with the choices. As of the time of this writing, odds are reflective and are subject to change even further. This is my prediction for the Broncos versus the Chiefs, and it is the Kansas City Chiefs Spread (-3.5, -110). This prediction is based on the overwhelming regression potential of Denver and the offensive record of Kansas City. The Broncos are complete and utter liars. The squad coached by Sean Payton comes into this game with a point differential of 6.7-3.3, and they are currently 8-2.

At the beginning of Week 10, Denver was ranked seventh in DVOA. On the other hand, it was undertaken against the 28th-most difficult schedule in the league. The Broncos are three spots behind Kansas City in the standings. However, according to ftnfantasy.com, Kansas City achieved its grade by playing against the eleventh-hardest schedule in the National Football League.

Denver’s defense, which is still missing Patrick Surtain, had a difficult time performing well in games against teams that had strong attacks. Kansas City is Denver’s second game against a top-five DVOA offense, and it will be their second game overall. In the other game, the Broncos were defeated by the Colts by a score of 29-28. There is a significant difference between the Colts and the Chiefs, and that is the fact that the Chiefs’ defense has consistently performed well against good teams. At the time of this writing, Kansas City is currently ranked in second place in defensive DVOA, behind Indianapolis. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have been confronted with the 12th-most difficult combination of offenses, while Indianapolis has been confronted with the second-most straightforward pair of offenses. According to my understanding, the only way for Denver to cover is for this game to end up inside the number. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have both shown remarkable performance after receiving a bye in the past. In his own right, Reid has a record of 18-4 with the extra rest, including a record of 6-1 with Mahomes. In addition, Mahomes has a record of 32-1 since the beginning of the 2023 regular season during which he has led after the first quarter.

Since the beginning of the season, Denver has never been able to establish a lead as an underdog after the opening fifteen minutes of play. When you combine those patterns with the benefit of the matchup, I believe that Kansas City will cover the spread in Denver. In light of the fact that the Falcons are not very good at stopping the run and that Carolina has a powerful rushing game, my prediction for the game between the Falcons and the Panthers is that the Panthers will win (+3.5, -110). After suffering a complete and utter defeat, who is going to gamble on the Panthers as the favorites? Nevertheless, the fact that Carolina’s offense had a bad matchup advantage is something that should not be overlooked in relation to that game. Previous success for the Panthers was founded on their ability to run the ball. According to the run offense DVOA, Carolina was rated ninth going into Week 10. Following that, the team faced a Saints unit that was thirteenth in rush defense DVOA. Atlanta presents the Panthers with a more manageable challenge. With the exception of that performance, the squad ranked 24th in rush defense DVOA. Jonathan Taylor was the only player to be allowed to gain more than 200 yards.

The team that Raheem Morris is a part of now has to travel back from Germany without any time to rest or recoup. It is expected that this will make their defensive problems even worse and give Carolina the opportunity to move the ball. The Atlanta Falcons have not yet achieved a level of offensive performance that would allow them to justify sitting over a vital number. With the exception of Week 10, Atlanta placed 21st in offensive DVOA, having faced the 26th-hardest group of defenses in the league during the week. The offensive unit must be successful through the air in order to defeat Carolina. A unit that ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA is not one that Michael Penix, the quarterback, would be able to exploit. As a result, I believe that the game that will take place on Sunday presents a significant buy-low opportunity for Carolina to cover.

Taking into consideration Buffalo’s superiority on the ground and the overwhelming support against the Bills, my prediction for the Bills versus the Buccaneers is that the Bills will cover the spread (-5.5, -110). The performance that Buffalo gave on Sunday in Miami was beyond anyone’s ability to explain. Now, bettors are flooding the window in order to place wagers against Josh Allen while he is at home. Permit me to be curious. After suffering a defeat, public dogs have been having difficulty competing against past favorites. Since the previous season, dogs that have received more than 51% of tickets against a favorite after suffering a defeat by three or more have a record of 5-13 against the spread. To date, the overall record is 1-6. That, of course, is not sufficient justification for accepting the Bills. My interest in Buffalo stems from the fact that it has a competitive advantage on the ground. When it comes to the DVOA of rush offense, only Indianapolis is higher than Buffalo. The Buccaneers’ run defense, which now ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA, will face its most difficult opponent in Week 11 as a result of this occurrence.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay has only yet to face a rush offense that is among the top 11 in America. On Monday Night Football, Detroit defeated Tampa Bay by a score of 24-9. Also, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ run defense is a unit that can either be a boom or a bust. Here are the figures for Tampa’s running defense broken down by field zone: “Stuffed” refers to an opponent who is tackled at or behind the line. During the second level, the opponent will run for five to ten yards. Open field yards (the opponent runs for ten yards or more): thirty-first. The Bills are ranked sixth, fourth, and twelveth in the offensive measures that correspond to their position. Over the course of five games, Buffalo has run for more than 140 yards. For those matchups, they have a perfect 5-0 SU record, with each of their five victories coming by a margin of at least seven points. The New England Patriots just scored 166 yards on the rush against Tampa Bay. A total of 164 running yards were conceded by the club in Detroit. As a result, I believe that this game presents a significant opportunity to buy low on Buffalo.

✅ Our Chiefs vs Broncos Pick: BRONCOS

Chiefs vs Broncos Odds

Now, we have the Chiefs vs Broncos odds:

TEAM	SPREAD	MONEYLINE	TOTAL
Chiefs	-4	-205	44 O
Broncos	+4	+172	44 U

Chiefs Futures Odds, and Broncos Futures Odds

Chiefs Division Odds, and Broncos Division Odds

Now, we have the Chiefs Division Odds, and Broncos Division Odds:

TEAM	DIVISION ODDS
Chiefs Division Odds	+140
Broncos Division Odds	+135

Chiefs AFC Championship Odds, and Broncos AFC Championship Odds

Now, we have the Chiefs AFC Championship Odds, and Broncos AFC Championship Odds:

TEAM	CONFERENCE ODDS
Chiefs AFC Championship Odds	+285
Broncos AFC Championship Odds	+800

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: Head to Head

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
1/05/25	@DEN	DEN 38-0	DEN+4.0	U46.5	DEN+160
11/10/24	@KC	KC 16-14	KC-9.0	U46	KC-410
10/29/23	@DEN	DEN 24-9	DEN+3.5	U47.5	DEN+150
10/12/23	@KC	KC 19-8	KC-7.0	U48	KC-305
1/01/23	@KC	KC 27-24	KC-4.0	O44	KC-190
12/11/22	@DEN	KC 34-28	DENEVEN	O42.5	DEN-110
1/08/22	@DEN	KC 28-24	DEN+3.0	O43.5	DEN+135
12/05/21	@KC	KC 22-9	KC-9.5	U50	KC-460
12/06/20	@KC	KC 22-16	KC-13.0	U50.5	KC-835
10/25/20	@DEN	KC 43-16	DEN+7.0	O43.5	DEN+280

Date	Opponent	Score	Spread	Total	Moneyline
11/02/25	@HOU	W 18-15	W-1.5	U45.5	W-115
10/26/25	DAL	W 44-24	W-4.5	O45.5	W-198
10/19/25	NYG	W 33-32	L-7.5	O40.5	W-325
10/12/25	@NYJ	W 13-11	L-6.5	U41.5	W-320
10/05/25	@PHI	W 21-17	W+4.5	U45.5	W+164
9/29/25	CIN	W 28-3	W-1.5	U44.5	W-130
9/21/25	@LAC	L 23-20	L+1.5	U44.5	LEVEN
9/14/25	@IND	L 29-28	L-3.5	O44.5	L-175
9/07/25	TEN	W 20-12	W-7.0	U42.5	W-360
1/12/25	@BUF	L 31-7	L+8.5	U47.5	L+340

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: Kansas City Offense

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction: Denver Offense

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction and Pick, Week 11, by YouWager.lv.