See who has the better chance to win and cover the spread in this week one NCAAF prediction for West Virginia vs North Carolina.

• The defense of North Carolina is giving up 11.3 yards per completion.
• In terms of throwing yards, the West Virginia Mountaineers rank 92nd.

NORTH CAROLINA VS WEST VIRGINIA PREDICTION

This week’s opening CFB matchup between the Tar Heels and the Mountaineers will kick off at 5:30 on ESPN (12/27/23). The game will be place in Charlotte, North Carolina at Bank of America Stadium.The Mountaineers are favored by three points to win this non-conference game. Is it wiser to back them to cover the spread, or are the Tar Heels a better option in terms of value? To find out more, continue reading.

NORTH CAROLINA VS. WEST VIRGINIA MATCHUP AT A GLANCE

• Sport: College Football
• Teams: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
• Where: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte
• Date: December 27, Wednesday

NORTH CAROLINA PREVIEW: CAN NORTH CAROLINA FOLLOW UP WITH ANOTHER WIN?

North Carolina’s most recent defeat by NC State caused their overall record to fall to 8-4. The Tar Heels fell short of their opponent, 39–20. This season, North Carolina has started eight games as the favorite and one as the underdog. As of right now, their ATS record is 5-4. North Carolina’s record against the spread going into this week’s matchup is 4-4-1. With an average of 63.7 points per game, their margin against their over/under lines is at +6.1.

Against NC State, the Tar Heels completed 38 pass attempts, gaining 254 yards and two touchdowns. They gained one rushing touchdown and averaged 6.2 yards per carry in the rushing game. In addition to rushing for one touchdown and throwing for 254 yards and two touchdowns versus NC State, Drake Maye found the end zone in a number of ways.

In terms of defense, North Carolina gave up 505 yards to NC State. This entails surrendering 334 passing yards and 171 permitted yards on the ground. The North Carolina defense ranked 106th in the nation in terms of points allowed going into their game against West Virginia, allowing 27.1 points per contest. As of right now, their opponents’ average passing yardage per game is 242.3, ranking them 130th in the nation. Their allowance of 164.6 rushing yards against the run puts them 111th in college football.

WEST VIRGINIA PREVIEW: WILL WEST VIRGINIA REBOUND AFTER A LOSS?

With their 34-31 victory over Baylor, West Virginia’s record has improved to 8-4 as they get ready for this week’s matchup with North Carolina. This season, West Virginia has started six games as the favorite and five as the underdog. As of right now, their ATS record is 6-5. This season, West Virginia’s over/under record is 7-4. Their games have yielded 59.1 points on average, with an average over/under line of 52.3 points.

Against Baylor, the Mountaineers completed 25 pass attempts, gaining 269 yards and two touchdowns. They scored two rushing touchdowns and averaged 7.2 yards per carry in the rushing game. Quarterback Garrett Greene ran for 103 yards and scored two rushing scores against Baylor. He completed 64.0% of his passes for 269 yards and a passer rating of 126.92 in the passing game.

Ultimately, the Mountaineers defense allowed Baylor 334 yards in total throughout the game. 119 yards were gained through the running game against 215 in the passing game by the team’s run defense. As they go ready for this game, West Virginia’s defense is rated 89th in terms of passing yards allowed per game. Against the Mountaineers, opponents have attempted 32.5 passes on average. They are currently ranked 110th in college football after giving up 27.5 points per game thus far. They rank 71st in the NCAA in the rush defense category.

NORTH CAROLINA VS WEST VIRGINIA BETTING ODDS, TRENDS & ANALYSIS

North Carolina has won seven of the last 10 encounters between the two teams, so West Virginia is hoping to reverse that trend in their head-to-head matchup.

North Carolina is 2-1 against the spread in their last three games as the underdog versus West Virginia.

Originally set as 3.5-point home favorites, West Virginia’s spread lines have since adjusted to -3. West Virginia is now assigned a 61% chance of winning and a moneyline payout of -156 based on the current moneyline odds. In comparison, the Tar Heels have a +126 moneyline and an implied win percentage of 44%.

KEY BETTING TRENDS

• North Carolina has a 2-3 road record against the spread.
• Over the last ten games, West Virginia’s home ATS record is 3-7.
• When considering just the last three games in which West Virginia started as the underdog, their overall run total (ATS) was 2-1.
• North Carolina has an ATS record of 1-4 throughout their previous five games as the favorite.

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