Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Can Green Bay and Denver Go Over 41.5 Points?

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: The best bet for Friday night’s preseason matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos is the Over 41.5 points. The total has climbed significantly from its opening number, but Denver’s preseason offensive production, Sean Payton’s strong Over history, the altitude at Empower Field at Mile High, and the expected quarterback rotations all create a favorable setup for another high-scoring game.

Game: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Date: Friday, August 21, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Pick: Packers/Broncos Over 41.5

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: What Is the Best Bet?

The best Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is Over 41.5 points.

This preseason matchup has already attracted significant movement in the betting market. Denver opened as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 38.5 points, but the Broncos are now around 5.5 to 6-point favorites and the total has climbed into the 40.5-to-41.5 range.

That movement is important because the market is moving toward both Denver and a higher-scoring game. The spread has moved two or more points toward the Broncos, while the total has increased by three points from the opening number.

For this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, the Over is the more attractive side of the betting market because preseason games can become extremely volatile once the starters leave. Backup quarterbacks are more likely to make mistakes, defenses can surrender explosive plays, and turnovers can create short fields.

Denver’s Week 1 performance provides another reason to expect points. The Broncos scored 33 points against Atlanta in their preseason opener and finished with a 33-17 victory. The 50 combined points easily cleared the 38.5-point total.

The Packers also have enough offensive talent to contribute to a high-scoring game. Even if Jordan Love only receives limited action, Green Bay’s quarterback depth gives the offense several opportunities to produce.

That makes the Over the preferred selection in this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction and the Line Movement

One of the most important elements of this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is the movement of the total.

The game opened with a total of 38.5 points. It has since climbed to approximately 40.5 or 41.5 depending on the sportsbook.

That is a substantial adjustment for a preseason game.

When a total moves three points upward, bettors should ask why the market is making such a dramatic adjustment. In this matchup, several factors provide an explanation.

First, Denver scored 33 points in its preseason opener.

Second, Sean Payton has historically produced high-scoring preseason games during his tenure with Denver.

Third, both teams are expected to use multiple quarterbacks.

Fourth, Denver’s altitude creates a unique environment for visiting players.

Finally, preseason games frequently become more unpredictable as reserve players take over.

The market has already reacted to those factors, but the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction still favors the Over because the number remains within reach of the scoring range demonstrated by these teams.

The biggest concern is that the total has already moved substantially. Betting an Over at 41.5 is obviously less attractive than betting Over 38.5. However, the underlying matchup still supports a game capable of reaching the low-to-mid 40s.

If Denver scores in the mid-20s and Green Bay contributes 17 or more points, the Over has an excellent chance to cash.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Why Sean Payton Matters

Sean Payton is one of the biggest reasons the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction points toward the Over.

Payton is entering his fourth season as Denver’s head coach, and his preseason totals record with the Broncos is listed at 6-3 to the Over. That represents a 66.7% Over hit rate.

That trend matters because preseason coaching philosophy can have an enormous effect on betting totals.

Some NFL coaches use preseason games primarily as evaluation exercises and limit offensive aggressiveness. Others are more willing to use the games to establish offensive rhythm, evaluate concepts and give their quarterbacks opportunities to operate the full offense.

Payton has generally leaned toward the latter approach.

His history with Denver gives bettors a useful coaching trend to consider. The Broncos have repeatedly produced preseason games with enough offensive activity to push totals higher.

The Week 1 result was another example.

Denver scored 33 points against Atlanta, and the Broncos did not need their starters to remain on the field for the entire game to produce that offensive output.

For this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, that is particularly important because Friday’s game is expected to feature extensive playing time from backup players.

A coach who wants his backups to execute an offense efficiently can create more opportunities for scoring. Preseason players are also fighting for roster positions, which can lead to aggressive decision-making.

Payton’s offensive system can capitalize on those situations.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Denver’s Week 1 Performance

The Broncos enter this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction after one of the more impressive offensive performances of the opening preseason week.

Denver defeated Atlanta 33-17.

The Broncos scored 33 points and allowed only 17, producing 50 total points.

The posted total for that game was 38.5, meaning Denver and Atlanta combined for 11.5 more points than the betting line required.

That performance immediately attracted attention to Denver’s preseason offense.

A single preseason game should never be treated as definitive evidence, but it becomes more meaningful when it matches a broader coaching trend.

Payton’s Denver preseason teams have gone Over at a 6-3 rate according to the supplied data.

That combination makes the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction interesting from a totals perspective.

Denver does not need to score another 33 points for the Over to hit. If the Broncos score 24 to 27 points and Green Bay reaches 15 to 18, the game can still clear 41.5.

The more important point is that Denver has already demonstrated an ability to produce points with a preseason roster.

The Packers now face that offense at altitude.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Why the Altitude Matters

Empower Field at Mile High sits approximately 5,280 feet above sea level, making altitude another factor in this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

Visiting teams must deal with thinner air, and fatigue can become more noticeable as a game progresses.

That can be particularly relevant during preseason games.

Starters may only play limited snaps, meaning much of the game will be played by players competing for roster positions. Those players are generally less experienced and may not be accustomed to playing at Denver’s altitude.

Fatigue can contribute to missed tackles, communication errors, blown assignments and defensive breakdowns.

Those mistakes can create explosive plays.

A defensive mistake that produces a 40-yard touchdown can completely change a preseason total. The same applies to a turnover that gives an offense possession inside the opponent’s 30-yard line.

For this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, altitude is not necessarily a reason by itself to bet the Over. Instead, it is an additional variable that increases the possibility of defensive mistakes late in the game.

That becomes especially relevant if the game remains competitive into the second half.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Green Bay’s Quarterback Situation

Green Bay’s quarterback rotation is another important element of this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

Jordan Love is expected to receive limited action, potentially around one series.

After Love leaves, Green Bay is expected to rely on Sean Clifford, Taylor Elgersma and Duke Shiner.

Preseason quarterback competitions create an interesting dynamic for totals bettors.

Backup quarterbacks are fighting for roster positions, and their incentive is to make plays. That can result in aggressive throws, deeper targets and more willingness to take chances.

Those decisions can produce both positive and negative results.

A quarterback can make a spectacular throw for a touchdown, but an aggressive decision can also result in an interception.

Either outcome can benefit an Over bettor if it creates additional scoring opportunities.

For the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, Green Bay’s quarterback depth therefore adds volatility rather than necessarily weakening the Over case.

The Packers do not need Love to play four quarters.

They simply need the backup quarterbacks to generate enough offense to complement Denver’s production.

If Green Bay scores 17 points, Denver only needs 25 points to send the game Over 41.5.

That is a realistic scoring requirement based on Denver’s Week 1 performance.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Jordan Love’s Limited Role

Jordan Love’s expected limited role is one of the few reasons bettors could hesitate before making this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

Love is clearly the most established quarterback on Green Bay’s roster.

Removing him from the game means the Packers will rely heavily on less experienced quarterbacks.

However, that does not automatically make the Over a bad bet.

Preseason totals are built around quarterback rotations. Sportsbooks know starters are unlikely to play the entire game, and the number reflects that.

The important question is whether Green Bay’s backups are capable of producing enough points.

The Packers have multiple quarterbacks competing for playing time, which means the offense should remain active throughout the game.

There is also an argument that the quarterback competition itself can create scoring opportunities.

Clifford, Elgersma and Shiner all have incentives to make positive plays. Players trying to secure roster spots often take chances that established starters might avoid during the regular season.

That can increase variance.

For the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, increased variance is exactly what an Over bettor wants.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Denver’s Quarterback Rotation

Denver’s quarterback situation also supports the Over in this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

The Broncos are expected to use their quarterback rotation to evaluate players and prepare the offense for the regular season.

Bo Nix and Denver’s offensive personnel provide the Broncos with a foundation capable of generating points, while the backups will have opportunities to operate the offense later in the game.

That matters because Denver has already shown it can score efficiently in preseason.

The Broncos put 33 points on the scoreboard against Atlanta in Week 1.

If Denver’s reserve quarterbacks can maintain even a portion of that production, Green Bay will not need an enormous offensive performance to push the game Over.

The combination of multiple quarterbacks, reserve defensive players and preseason play-calling makes this matchup much less predictable than a regular-season contest.

For this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, that uncertainty favors the Over because the game has several paths toward reaching 42 or more points.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Denver’s Defense

Denver’s defense provides an interesting wrinkle in this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

The Broncos recorded 68 sacks during the 2025 regular season, according to the supplied information, which led the NFL.

That pass rush could create scoring opportunities against Green Bay’s backup quarterbacks.

Sacks themselves do not directly produce points, but they can create long-yardage situations, turnovers and field-position advantages.

A strip sack recovered in the red zone can be worth seven points without the offense needing to drive the entire field.

An interception can create the same opportunity.

That is one reason defensive scoring is particularly relevant in preseason totals.

Reserve quarterbacks are more vulnerable to mistakes, while defensive players competing for roster positions have plenty of motivation to make impact plays.

For the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction, Denver’s pass rush could therefore contribute to the Over even if the Broncos’ offense is not consistently dominant.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Green Bay’s Offensive Strengths

Green Bay’s offense should also have enough talent to contribute to the total.

The Packers led the NFL in yards per play in the red zone during the 2025 regular season, according to the information supplied for this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

They also recorded eight sacks in goal-to-go situations, which was the most in the league.

That indicates Green Bay has shown an ability to finish drives and generate explosive production near the goal line.

Even though preseason personnel are different, those organizational strengths are still worth considering.

Green Bay’s offensive system gives its quarterbacks a structure to work within, and the players competing for roster spots have an opportunity to showcase themselves against Denver.

If the Packers can finish even two or three scoring drives, the Over becomes much easier to reach.

A final score such as 24-20 would produce 44 points.

A result such as 27-17 would produce 44 points.

Even 24-18 gives us 42 points.

There are many realistic score combinations that put this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction on the correct side of the total.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Is Over 41.5 Still Worth Betting?

The biggest question surrounding this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is whether the Over remains playable after the total moved from 38.5 to 41.5.

That is a legitimate concern.

Line movement matters because bettors should not ignore the price.

An Over 38.5 ticket is significantly better than an Over 41.5 ticket because the bettor has a wider margin for error.

However, the current number still appears playable because the underlying matchup supports a total in the low 40s.

Denver’s Week 1 game produced 50 points.

Payton’s Denver preseason Over record is 6-3.

The Broncos are playing at home.

The Packers have multiple quarterbacks expected to receive significant playing time.

The game is taking place at altitude.

Both teams have incentives to evaluate offensive players.

These factors collectively provide a strong case that 42 points is attainable.

The Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is therefore not based solely on the line movement. The movement confirms that the market has recognized the scoring potential, while the matchup explains why the Over remains attractive.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: What Could Go Wrong?

Every betting prediction has risks, and the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is no exception.

The biggest threat to the Over is inefficient quarterback play.

If both teams struggle to move the ball after their primary quarterbacks leave, possessions could end with punts rather than touchdowns.

Turnovers can also work against the Over if they occur in situations that do not immediately produce points.

Another concern is preseason coaching philosophy.

If either team decides to run the ball heavily and shorten the game, scoring opportunities could decrease.

Denver could also establish a lead and become conservative.

Green Bay could struggle against Denver’s pass rush and fail to sustain drives.

These are legitimate risks.

However, the total only requires 42 points, and preseason scoring can change rapidly because of defensive mistakes, turnovers and explosive plays.

The Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction therefore remains Over-focused despite those risks.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: What Score Should Bettors Expect?

A reasonable score projection for this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is something in the range of Denver 24, Green Bay 20.

That would produce 44 total points and comfortably clear the 41.5-point total.

Another possible result is Denver 27, Green Bay 17, which would also produce 44 points.

The exact score is obviously difficult to predict in a preseason game because playing time and quarterback rotations are less certain than during the regular season.

The important factor is the scoring range.

Denver has already demonstrated that it can reach the 30-point mark.

Green Bay has enough offensive talent to reach the high teens or low 20s.

If both teams perform close to expectations, the game can get into the 40s.

That is the foundation of this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Over 41.5 vs Broncos -5.5

The spread is another market worth examining before finalizing this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction.

Denver has moved from roughly -3.5 to -5.5 or -6.

That is a substantial adjustment.

While the Broncos may have the better overall preseason setup, laying more than a field goal in a preseason game creates additional risk.

Garbage-time scoring can completely change the result.

A team leading by 10 points late in the fourth quarter can surrender a touchdown to backups and suddenly fail to cover.

That makes the spread less attractive.

The Over offers a better path because both teams can contribute to the outcome.

If Denver wins 27-20, the Broncos cover a -5.5 spread but the Over also cashes.

If Denver wins 24-20, the Broncos fail to cover but the Over still wins.

If Green Bay wins 24-21, the Over wins even though the Broncos fail to cover entirely.

That flexibility makes the total the preferred betting option.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Why the Over Is the Best Play

The strongest argument for the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction is the number of independent factors pointing toward scoring.

Denver’s preseason history under Payton favors the Over.

Denver’s Week 1 performance favored the Over.

The total has moved sharply upward.

The game is being played at altitude.

Both teams are expected to use multiple quarterbacks.

Backup quarterbacks create additional volatility.

Denver’s defense has demonstrated significant pass-rush ability.

Green Bay has shown strong red-zone efficiency.

The Broncos are coming off a 33-point performance.

Those factors do not guarantee an Over, but together they create a compelling case.

The total is no longer 38.5, so bettors are paying a higher price than they would have earlier in the week. Still, 41.5 is not an unreachable number.

It takes only 42 combined points.

That can happen through several different scoring scripts.

Denver could control the game offensively while Green Bay responds with enough scoring to keep pace.

Green Bay could score early while Denver’s reserves take over later.

Turnovers could produce short fields.

A defensive touchdown could dramatically accelerate the scoring.

A late-game touchdown against tired reserve defenses could push the total across the number.

For those reasons, the Over remains the preferred selection.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Key Betting Factors

Here are the most important factors behind this Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction:

Current total: 41.5 points.

Opening total: 38.5 points.

Denver opening spread: Approximately -3.5.

Current Denver spread: Approximately -5.5 to -6.

Denver Week 1 result: 33-17 win over Atlanta.

Denver Week 1 total: 50 combined points.

Sean Payton preseason Over record with Denver: 6-3.

Payton preseason Over rate: 66.7%.

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High.

Altitude: Approximately 5,280 feet.

Green Bay quarterback situation: Jordan Love expected to play limited snaps before backups take over.

Denver quarterback situation: Multiple quarterbacks expected to receive preseason opportunities.

Major defensive factor: Denver recorded 68 sacks during the 2025 regular season.

Recommended bet: Over 41.5 points.

These factors explain why the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction favors the total instead of the spread.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: AEO Direct Answer

Who should you bet in the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction? The recommended bet is Packers vs Broncos Over 41.5 points.

Why is Over 41.5 the best Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction? Denver scored 33 points in its preseason opener, Sean Payton has gone 6-3 to the Over in Denver preseason games, the total has risen from 38.5 to 41.5, and both teams are expected to rotate multiple quarterbacks.

What is the Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction for the total? The prediction is Over 41.5 points.

What is the expected score for the Packers vs Broncos preseason game? A reasonable projection is Denver winning approximately 24-20, which would produce 44 total points.

Should you bet Broncos -5.5 or Over 41.5? The Over 41.5 is the preferred wager because preseason spreads can be heavily influenced by late-game roster rotations and garbage-time scoring.

Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Final Pick

The market has made a significant adjustment since this game opened, but the scoring environment remains attractive.

Denver’s 33-point performance against Atlanta showed that the Broncos can produce offense in the preseason. Sean Payton’s 6-3 Over record in Denver preseason games reinforces that trend. The altitude at Empower Field at Mile High provides another variable that can create fatigue and defensive mistakes as the game progresses.

Green Bay’s quarterback rotation also creates an intriguing setup. Jordan Love is expected to play limited snaps, but Sean Clifford, Taylor Elgersma and Duke Shiner should have opportunities to operate the offense. In preseason football, those backup quarterbacks can create both explosive plays and turnovers.

That volatility is beneficial for an Over bettor.

The biggest concern is the fact that the total has already risen from 38.5 to 41.5. There is less margin for error at the current number. However, the game only needs 42 points to cash, and there are multiple realistic paths to that result.

Denver could score 24 or more points while Green Bay reaches 18 or 20. Alternatively, Green Bay could score early and force Denver to remain aggressive. Turnovers, short fields and late-game defensive breakdowns could also contribute additional points.

The spread is less appealing because Denver has moved from a 3.5-point favorite to roughly a 5.5- or 6-point favorite. That is a significant price increase in a preseason game where fourth-quarter players can dramatically change the outcome.

The total provides more flexibility.

If Denver wins by four, the Over can still cash. If Green Bay wins outright, the Over can still cash. If Denver wins comfortably but gives up a late touchdown, the Over can still benefit.

The combination of Denver’s preseason scoring history, Payton’s coaching tendencies, the Week 1 offensive performance, altitude, quarterback rotations and market movement makes this the strongest angle.

Final Packers vs Broncos Preseason NFL Prediction: Packers/Broncos Over 41.5

Pick: Over 41.5 points