Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Will the Raiders and Texans Go Under 38.5 Points?

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Will Las Vegas and Houston stay Under 38.5 points in Thursday’s Week 2 preseason matchup?

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is to take the Under 38.5 points when Las Vegas visits Houston on Thursday, August 20, 2026. The strongest case for the Under comes from Houston’s defensive identity under DeMeco Ryans, the joint-practice setup, limited offensive workloads, and the uncertainty surrounding both teams’ backup quarterbacks. The Texans are 1.5-point home favorites after the market moved three full points from Raiders -1.5 at the opener, but the total remains the more attractive betting opportunity.

Pick: Raiders/Texans Under 38.5

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction Summary

For this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction, the Under is the preferred wager at 38.5 points.

The matchup has several characteristics that traditionally make preseason Unders attractive. Both teams are expected to give their starters limited playing time, while a joint practice between the Raiders and Texans should provide some of the most meaningful competitive work before Thursday’s game.

Houston also brings a defensive-minded coaching staff into the matchup. DeMeco Ryans has built the Texans around pressure, physicality and disciplined defensive football, and Houston’s Week 1 preseason performance against the Chargers demonstrated how that approach can suppress scoring.

The Raiders have a new head coach in Klint Kubiak, and his second preseason game represents another opportunity to evaluate the roster rather than aggressively pursue points. Kirk Cousins is expected to receive a short appearance before Fernando Mendoza takes over.

On the Houston side, C.J. Stroud should also have a limited workload before Davis Mills enters. The Texans’ backup quarterback situation became more complicated after Graham Mertz suffered a torn ACL in Week 1.

That combination makes the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction particularly appealing as a total rather than a side.

Best Bet: Under 38.5

Projected Betting Lean: Raiders/Texans Under 38.5

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Why Is the Under 38.5 the Best Bet?

The primary reason for this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is that the matchup contains multiple factors pointing toward a lower-scoring game.

Houston’s defensive philosophy is the first major factor. Ryans is entering his fourth season as the Texans’ head coach, and his teams have consistently emphasized defensive fundamentals. The Texans are not built around simply outscoring opponents. Their preferred formula is pressure, field position, physical tackling and forcing offenses into difficult situations.

That philosophy matters even more in preseason football.

Unlike regular-season games, preseason contests often feature extended stretches with backup quarterbacks and players competing for roster spots. Offenses can become inconsistent because timing is less developed, offensive lines are constantly changing and quarterbacks may be working with receivers who will not make the final roster.

Those problems can create stalled drives.

That is important for the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction because 38.5 points requires a relatively productive offensive performance from both teams. A final score such as 23-13 would cash the Under comfortably. Even something like 24-17 would remain below the number.

The margin is meaningful.

Houston’s Defensive Identity Favors the Under

Ryans has established a defensive culture in Houston since taking over in 2023. The Texans have reached the playoffs in each of his first three seasons, and the defense has been a central component of that success.

For this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction, the important point is not simply Houston’s regular-season defensive quality. It is how the coaching staff approaches preseason football.

Ryans has a clear incentive to evaluate whether his defensive reserves can execute the same concepts as the starters. That means pressure packages, tackling assignments and coverage responsibilities remain important even after the first-team players leave.

A defense with a defined system can sometimes transition better to preseason rotations than an offense that relies heavily on timing and continuity.

That creates a potential advantage for the Under.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: What Happened in Week 1?

The first preseason games for both teams provide important context for this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

Houston opened its preseason against the Los Angeles Chargers and lost 27-7. The Texans managed only seven points, while the combined 34 points stayed below the 36.5-point total.

That game offered a useful preview of Houston’s preseason environment.

Once the starters and primary contributors leave the field, scoring opportunities can become harder to manufacture. Drives become less consistent, quarterbacks face pressure, and offensive possessions frequently end in punts rather than touchdowns.

Houston’s 27-7 loss does not guarantee another Under, but it reinforces the possibility that the Texans’ defense can keep scoring relatively contained.

The Raiders also enter Thursday’s matchup with a new offensive structure.

That matters.

Kubiak is in his first season as an NFL head coach after working as Seattle’s offensive coordinator during the Seahawks’ Super Bowl LX championship season. His preseason priority should be evaluating how his offensive concepts translate to different personnel groups.

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction therefore becomes less about projecting regular-season offensive statistics and more about projecting how many functional drives the teams can generate after the starters leave.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: How Does the Joint Practice Affect the Game?

The joint practice is one of the strongest situational arguments in this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

The Raiders and Texans are scheduled to conduct a joint practice at Houston’s facility before Thursday’s game. Joint practices can provide starters with competitive repetitions that would otherwise have to come during the actual preseason contest.

That can change how coaches manage game snaps.

If Kubiak believes his offensive line received valuable work against Houston’s front seven during the joint practice, there is less reason to expose veteran players to extended game action.

The same principle applies to Houston.

A coach can use the joint practice to evaluate starters against quality competition and then use the preseason game primarily to examine backups, young players and roster-bubble candidates.

For the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction, that is significant because backup-heavy football is often more volatile offensively but not necessarily more productive.

Mistakes can create points, but poor quarterback play, penalties, sacks and failed third-down conversions can just as easily create long stretches without scoring.

The Under benefits from those stalled possessions.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: What Should We Expect From Kirk Cousins?

Kirk Cousins is expected to start at quarterback for Las Vegas, but his workload should be limited.

That is an important distinction for the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

Cousins brings extensive NFL experience and should provide the Raiders with stability during his limited appearance. However, the expectation is that he will play only a series or two before Fernando Mendoza takes over.

That means bettors should not evaluate this matchup as though Cousins is playing an entire regular-season game.

The more important question is what happens after Cousins exits.

Mendoza is the No. 1 overall pick and has considerable physical talent, but preseason defenses can create difficult situations for young quarterbacks. Houston’s defensive pressure packages represent a particularly challenging test.

Mendoza’s preseason debut against Arizona illustrated both sides of his game. He completed 10 of 16 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown, but his numbers declined significantly when facing pressure.

Against pressure, he completed only 2 of 6 passes for 11 yards, posted a 42.4 passer rating and took a sack.

That is exactly the type of situation Houston can create.

For the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction, the concern is not whether Mendoza can eventually become a productive NFL quarterback. It is whether he can consistently generate points against a Houston defense designed to create pressure.

That is a much narrower question.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Can Houston’s Pass Rush Control the Game?

Houston’s pass rush is another major reason to favor the Under in this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

The Texans have one of the most imposing defensive fronts in the AFC.

Derek Stingley Jr. has been a first-team All-Pro in each of the past two seasons, while Kamari Lassiter earned Pro Bowl recognition in 2025. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. give Houston significant pass-rushing ability.

Those players may not play extensively Thursday.

However, Houston’s defensive depth is still capable of creating pressure against a young Raiders offensive line and backup quarterback rotation.

Preseason football often turns on the performance of second- and third-string offensive linemen. Those players are competing for roster positions, but they do not necessarily have the communication and chemistry of a first-team offensive line.

Pressure can disrupt everything.

A sack can eliminate a promising drive.

A penalty can create second-and-long.

A hurried throw can result in an interception.

A failed third down can force a punt.

All of those outcomes are favorable to the Under.

That makes the defensive matchup central to the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: What About C.J. Stroud?

C.J. Stroud should receive a short appearance for Houston before giving way to Davis Mills.

Stroud’s presence gives Houston an advantage during his limited snaps, but the quarterback workload is unlikely to be large enough to transform the entire game.

This is another reason the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is focused on the total rather than the moneyline.

If Stroud plays only a series or two, Houston will spend most of the game evaluating its backup quarterback and offensive personnel.

The Texans also lost Graham Mertz to a torn ACL during the Week 1 preseason game, reducing their available quarterback competition.

That matters because quarterback continuity is especially valuable in preseason games.

Backup quarterbacks are often working with backup offensive linemen, backup running backs and receivers fighting for roster positions. Timing problems can become amplified.

A team can have a productive opening drive with its starters and then go several possessions without scoring.

That scenario is particularly relevant when the betting total is 38.5.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Does the 38.5 Total Offer Value?

The number is important to this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

At 38.5 points, the market is asking these teams to average almost 20 points each.

That is not an unreasonable expectation for an NFL game, but preseason football has different offensive conditions.

The starters may play only a handful of snaps.

Backup quarterbacks take over.

Offensive line combinations change.

Playbooks are simplified.

Coaches may avoid exposing certain players.

Field goals may become less attractive than they are during the regular season.

Those factors can reduce scoring efficiency.

The most important point is that there are multiple ways this game can remain below 38.5.

A 20-17 game produces 37 points.

A 21-16 game produces 37 points.

A 24-14 game produces 38 points.

Even a relatively competitive game does not necessarily need to become a shootout to threaten the Under.

For the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction, 38.5 provides enough room for several realistic scoring combinations.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Why Not Bet the Texans -1.5?

There is a reasonable argument for Houston on the side, but the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction still favors the total.

The Texans have home-field advantage.

Ryans has a 7-3 straight-up preseason record as Houston’s head coach.

Houston’s quarterback depth has an experience advantage.

The defense should be capable of creating pressure.

The market has also moved dramatically toward Houston, from Raiders -1.5 to Texans -1.5.

That represents a three-point swing.

However, preseason spreads are inherently fragile.

A team can lead by six points entering the fourth quarter and lose the cover because a third-string quarterback throws a late touchdown.

A meaningless defensive touchdown can turn a close game into a blowout.

A missed extra point can change the result of a spread.

That variance makes the side less attractive.

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is cleaner when focusing on the total because the Under does not require Houston to win.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: How Important Is the Line Movement?

The spread movement is certainly notable.

The market opened with the Raiders as 1.5-point favorites before moving all the way to Texans -1.5.

That is a full three-point adjustment.

For the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction, the move suggests the market has developed significantly more confidence in Houston’s roster, quarterback situation or expected playing-time distribution.

But it does not automatically mean Houston is the best bet.

A major spread adjustment can actually make the side less appealing because bettors who waited are paying a higher price.

The total has not experienced the same dramatic movement.

That makes the Under more attractive from a value perspective.

The market may be telling us Houston is better than initially expected while simultaneously failing to provide enough evidence that the game will become a high-scoring contest.

That distinction is important.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Which Team Has the Better Defense?

Houston clearly has the more convincing defensive profile for this matchup.

Ryans’ defensive system emphasizes pressure and disciplined execution. Houston also has established talent at cornerback and along the defensive front.

Las Vegas, meanwhile, is operating under a new head coach and new offensive system.

That creates a potential mismatch.

The Raiders need to establish offensive rhythm, but their quarterback rotation is likely to feature Cousins briefly before Mendoza and the remaining backups handle the majority of the game.

Houston’s defense can attack that situation aggressively.

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction therefore projects more difficulty for Las Vegas’ offense than Houston’s offense is likely to face from the Raiders.

That does not necessarily mean Houston scores a lot.

It could mean Houston’s defense controls field position and keeps the overall scoring environment suppressed.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: What Is the Best Betting Strategy?

The best approach to this Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is to avoid overcomplicating the matchup.

The preferred wager is:

Raiders/Texans Under 38.5

The argument is built around several factors:

Houston’s defensive identity under DeMeco Ryans.

Houston’s Week 1 total finishing below the number.

A joint practice scheduled before the game.

Limited expected snaps for Kirk Cousins.

Limited expected snaps for C.J. Stroud.

A young Raiders quarterback facing an aggressive Houston defense.

Houston’s reduced backup quarterback options following the Mertz injury.

A first-year Raiders head coach continuing to evaluate his offensive system.

The inherent uncertainty surrounding preseason offensive rotations.

A total that can remain Under with several realistic final-score combinations.

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is therefore less dependent on one player and more dependent on how the game is likely to be structured.

That is preferable in preseason betting.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: What Could Cause the Under to Lose?

No preseason total is guaranteed, and there are several scenarios that could send this game Over.

The most obvious is turnovers.

A defensive interception returned for a touchdown immediately changes the scoring environment without requiring the offenses to sustain drives.

A muffed punt could give either team the ball deep in opponent territory.

A kickoff return could produce another short field.

Those plays are difficult to predict.

The other major threat is quarterback efficiency.

If Mendoza performs exceptionally well against Houston’s pressure and the Raiders score multiple touchdowns, the Under becomes difficult.

Houston could also score quickly if its backup offense finds success against Las Vegas’ reserves.

That is why 38.5 is preferable to a significantly lower number.

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction is based on probability rather than certainty, and the Under still offers the strongest overall profile at this number.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: What Is the Projected Game Script?

The projected script begins with both teams giving their starting quarterbacks limited opportunities.

Cousins should get a short look for Las Vegas, while Stroud should receive a similarly limited opportunity for Houston.

The first quarter could therefore be relatively competitive and efficient without producing a huge number of points.

Once the backups take over, the game should become more focused on evaluation.

Houston’s defensive pressure can make life difficult for Mendoza and the Raiders’ reserve offensive personnel.

At the same time, Houston’s own offense will be relying on backup combinations that may struggle to consistently move the football.

That could lead to a game where punts and stalled drives dominate the middle quarters.

The fourth quarter introduces more variance, but by that point the Under can still have a substantial advantage if the teams have combined for fewer than 30 points.

That is the preferred script for the Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in the Raiders vs Texans preseason game?

The Houston Texans are currently 1.5-point home favorites after the market moved from an opening line of Raiders -1.5. Houston is also listed around -1.5 on the current spread.

What is the Raiders vs Texans preseason betting total?

The total is 38.5 points. The recommended wager is the Under 38.5.

Who are the starting quarterbacks?

Kirk Cousins is expected to start for the Raiders, while C.J. Stroud is expected to start for Houston. Both quarterbacks are expected to have limited workloads.

Will Kirk Cousins play against Houston?

Cousins is expected to receive a limited number of snaps before Fernando Mendoza takes over the quarterback duties for Las Vegas.

Will C.J. Stroud play in the preseason game?

Stroud is expected to play a short series before Davis Mills takes over.

Why is the Raiders vs Texans preseason game expected to be low scoring?

The strongest reasons are limited starter workloads, Houston’s defensive philosophy, the joint-practice setup, backup quarterback play and the possibility of inconsistent offensive execution.

Is Raiders vs Texans Over or Under 38.5?

The recommended play is Under 38.5 points.

Who has the better defense, Raiders or Texans?

Houston has the stronger defensive profile entering this matchup. The Texans have a defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans and significant talent on the defensive line and at cornerback.

Has the Raiders vs Texans spread moved?

Yes. The market moved from Raiders -1.5 at the opener to Texans -1.5, representing a three-point swing toward Houston.

Should you bet the Texans moneyline instead?

Houston’s moneyline is defensible, but the total provides the preferred betting opportunity. Preseason sides are especially vulnerable to late-game roster rotations and garbage-time scoring.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Final Pick

The Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction points toward a controlled, defense-oriented game at Reliant Stadium.

Houston enters the matchup with a strong defensive identity under DeMeco Ryans. The Texans held the Chargers to seven points in Week 1, and their pressure-heavy approach could create problems for Las Vegas’ young quarterback rotation.

The Raiders have legitimate reasons to limit their veterans. Cousins should receive only a short workload, while Mendoza and the other quarterbacks handle most of the game. That puts considerable responsibility on young players and backups to generate consistent offensive production against a Houston defense that can create pressure.

The joint practice adds another important layer. Both coaching staffs have an opportunity to get competitive repetitions before Thursday’s game, potentially reducing the need to extend starters during the actual preseason contest.

Houston also enters with a limited quarterback room following Mertz’s injury, while Kubiak is still evaluating his new offense and personnel.

The market’s three-point move toward Houston is noteworthy, but laying points in preseason football carries significant risk. A late touchdown from a third-string quarterback can completely change the spread result.

The total offers a cleaner angle.

At 38.5 points, the game does not need to be extremely defensive to cash the Under. A variety of plausible final scores remain below the number, including 20-17, 21-16, 24-14 and 23-15.

The biggest threat to the wager would be defensive or special-teams touchdowns, explosive plays or unexpectedly efficient quarterback play. Those outcomes are always possible in preseason football. However, the overall matchup profile still favors fewer than 39 points.

Raiders vs Texans Preseason NFL Prediction: Under 38.5

Best Bet: Raiders/Texans Under 38.5

Final Pick: Under 38.5 Points