Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Atlanta vs Indianapolis on August 22, 2026?

Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction points toward the Indianapolis Colts in a competitive Week 2 preseason matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Indianapolis enters the game at 0-0 in the preseason, while Atlanta is 0-1. The Colts are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, with Atlanta at +3.5 and Indianapolis at -3.5. The betting total is set at 37.5 points. Based on the supplied AI NFL prediction, statistical matchup and preseason betting trends, the Colts are projected to win 20-17.

Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction: Direct Answer

Who will win the Falcons vs Colts preseason game? The prediction is Indianapolis Colts to win by 3 points, with a projected final score of Colts 20, Falcons 17.

The biggest reason to favor Indianapolis in this Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction is the significant offensive production advantage shown in the supplied statistics. The Colts are averaging 355 total yards per game compared with only 192 for Atlanta. Indianapolis also has major advantages in both rushing and passing production.

The Colts are averaging 133 rushing yards and 222 passing yards per game, while Atlanta is averaging just 59 rushing yards and 133 passing yards.

Indianapolis also owns the better defensive profile, allowing 13 points and 275 yards per game compared with Atlanta’s 27 points and 359 yards.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, Atlanta Falcons 17.

Pick: Colts -3.5

Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction and Odds

The betting market for this Week 2 preseason matchup is:

Betting Market | Atlanta Falcons | Indianapolis Colts
Preseason Record | 0-1 | 0-0
Moneyline | +162 | -195
Spread | +3.5 | -3.5
Total | 37.5 | 37.5
Venue | Lucas Oil Stadium | Lucas Oil Stadium
Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 | Saturday, August 22, 2026
Time | 1:00 PM ET | 1:00 PM ET

The Colts are substantial home favorites at -195 on the moneyline and -3.5 against the spread. Atlanta is priced at +162 on the moneyline and +3.5 on the spread.

The Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction therefore has an interesting contrast between the betting market and the statistical matchup. Indianapolis has the stronger numbers on both sides of the football, but preseason football introduces considerable uncertainty because of quarterback rotations, limited starter participation and extensive second- and third-string snaps.

That makes the 3.5-point number particularly important.

Why the Colts Are the Pick

The clearest argument for Indianapolis in this Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction is the massive difference in offensive production.

The Colts are averaging 13 points per game and 355 yards per game, while Atlanta is averaging only 7 points and 192 yards.

That 163-yard difference is substantial.

Indianapolis also ranks eighth in total offense according to the supplied statistics. The Colts are eighth in rushing at 133 yards per game and ninth in passing at 222 yards.

Atlanta, by comparison, ranks 27th in total offense, 30th in rushing and 24th in passing.

The Colts therefore have a significant advantage regardless of whether they choose to attack through the air or on the ground.

That balance is especially useful in preseason football, when offensive units change throughout the game. A team that can consistently produce with multiple personnel groups has a better chance of maintaining offensive efficiency into the second half.

Colts Offense vs Falcons Defense

The matchup between Indianapolis’ offense and Atlanta’s defense is one of the most important elements of the Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction.

The Colts are averaging:

355 total yards per game

222 passing yards per game

133 rushing yards per game

13 points per game

Atlanta’s defense is allowing:

359 total yards per game

197 passing yards per game

162 rushing yards per game

27 points per game

The biggest potential mismatch is on the ground.

Indianapolis is producing 133 rushing yards per game, while Atlanta is allowing 162 rushing yards per game, ranking 29th in the supplied statistics.

That could give the Colts a reliable way to move the football without requiring explosive passing plays.

If Indianapolis establishes its running game early, it could create manageable third downs, sustain drives and control possession. That is particularly valuable in a preseason game because extended drives allow coaches to evaluate offensive personnel while also limiting the opposing offense’s opportunities.

Atlanta’s Offensive Struggles

Atlanta’s offensive statistics are the primary concern for anyone considering the Falcons in this Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction.

The Falcons have scored only 7 points per game and are averaging just 192 yards per game.

Their rushing attack has produced only 59 yards per game, ranking 30th. Their passing attack has produced 133 yards, ranking 24th.

Those numbers make it difficult to project a high offensive ceiling for Atlanta.

The Falcons also have a difficult matchup against an Indianapolis defense that is allowing only 13 points and 275 yards per game.

The Colts rank 12th in total defense, 10th against the run and fifth in scoring defense based on the supplied statistics.

If Indianapolis can continue limiting Atlanta’s rushing production, the Falcons may be forced into predictable passing situations. That could allow the Colts to create pressure and force longer third downs.

Indianapolis Colts Defensive Advantage

The defensive side of the ball provides another significant reason to favor Indianapolis.

The Colts are allowing only:

13 points per game

275 total yards per game

83 rushing yards per game

192 passing yards per game

Atlanta is allowing:

27 points per game

359 total yards per game

162 rushing yards per game

197 passing yards per game

The difference in scoring defense is particularly noteworthy.

Indianapolis has allowed only 13 points per game, while Atlanta has surrendered 27.

The Colts have also recorded two sacks compared with one for Atlanta. The turnover numbers are close, with Indianapolis yet to record a turnover while Atlanta has recorded one.

The Colts’ defensive advantage gives them a strong floor in this matchup. Even if their offense does not produce a huge number of points, the defense should be capable of keeping Atlanta within a manageable scoring range.

Falcons vs Colts Offensive Comparison

The supplied offensive statistics strongly favor Indianapolis.

Category | Falcons | Colts
Points Per Game | 7 | 13
Total Yards Per Game | 192 | 355
Rushing Yards Per Game | 59 | 133
Passing Yards Per Game | 133 | 222
Third-Down Percentage | 26.7% | 12.5%

Indianapolis has produced nearly twice as many total yards as Atlanta.

The 163-yard difference is the headline statistic.

However, Atlanta’s 26.7% third-down conversion rate is actually better than Indianapolis’ 12.5% in the supplied data. That is one area where the Falcons have performed better.

Still, third-down percentage in a single preseason game can be extremely volatile. Personnel changes, play selection and game situation all have a major influence.

The broader offensive profile favors Indianapolis by a considerable margin.

Falcons vs Colts Defensive Comparison

The defensive numbers are also tilted toward the Colts.

Category | Falcons | Colts
Points Allowed | 27 | 13
Total Yards Allowed | 359 | 275
Rushing Yards Allowed | 162 | 83
Passing Yards Allowed | 197 | 192
Turnovers | 1 | 0
Sacks | 1 | 2

The biggest difference is against the run.

Indianapolis is allowing only 83 rushing yards per game, while Atlanta is allowing 162.

That is a major matchup advantage for the Colts because Indianapolis is averaging 133 rushing yards per game offensively.

The Colts therefore have the ability to attack Atlanta’s biggest defensive weakness while simultaneously relying on their own strongest defensive area.

That combination supports the Indianapolis side.

Falcons vs Colts Preseason Betting Trends

The supplied betting trends add another layer to this Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction.

Atlanta has gone Over in 66.7% of its last three preseason games as an underdog.

The Falcons have also covered the spread in 66.7% of their last three preseason games following a win, although Atlanta enters this matchup after a loss.

When preseason totals have been 42 points or lower, Atlanta has gone Over 66.7% of the time in its last three games.

The Indianapolis trends are even stronger for the total.

The Colts have gone Over in 87.5% of their last eight preseason games as favorites.

Indianapolis has also gone Over in 78.6% of its last 14 preseason games when the total was 42 points or lower.

At home, the Colts have gone Over in 75% of their last four preseason games.

Those trends make the total worth monitoring even though the supplied AI prediction ultimately calls for a 20-17 Indianapolis victory.

Is Falcons vs Colts Over or Under 37.5?

The total is set at 37.5 points.

The supplied trends provide a strong argument for the Over.

Atlanta has gone Over in 66.7% of its last three preseason games as an underdog and in 66.7% of its last three preseason games with totals of 42 or less.

Indianapolis has an even stronger history. The Colts have gone Over in 87.5% of their last eight preseason games as favorites and 78.6% of their last 14 preseason games with totals of 42 or less.

Indianapolis has also gone Over in 75% of its last four home preseason games.

However, the projected score of 20-17 produces only 37 total points, narrowly below the 37.5-point line.

That creates an important distinction between the side and total.

The trends lean Over, but the AI projection itself has the game landing just below the number. As a result, the Colts -3.5 remains the cleaner prediction if following the supplied AI score projection.

Falcons vs Colts Head-to-Head History

Atlanta and Indianapolis have met several times in recent years.

In the 2025 regular season, Indianapolis defeated Atlanta 31-25. The total went Over 48.5 points.

The teams also met during the 2023 regular season, when Atlanta defeated Indianapolis 29-10. That game stayed Under the 44.5-point total.

In 2015, Indianapolis defeated Atlanta 24-21, with the total staying Under 48 points.

The 2011 meeting produced a 31-7 Atlanta victory, with that game also finishing Under its 45-point total.

The historical record is therefore mixed, although the most recent meeting produced 56 total points.

Head-to-head history should not be given excessive weight in a preseason prediction because the personnel, coaching strategies and quarterback rotations can be completely different.

Why Falcons +3.5 Is Tempting

Even though the final Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction favors Indianapolis, Atlanta +3.5 deserves consideration.

The biggest reason is the nature of preseason football.

A three-point spread can disappear on one late touchdown, field goal or turnover. The fact that the Colts are favored by 3.5 means bettors backing Indianapolis need a four-point victory to cover.

Atlanta also has a favorable trend of covering in certain preseason situations, while the Falcons are receiving more than a field goal.

If the game develops into a low-scoring contest, every point becomes more valuable.

However, the supplied AI prediction specifically calls for Indianapolis to win by three points. That means the 3.5-point spread technically creates a narrow disagreement between the projected margin and the market.

If the model’s predicted score is exactly 20-17, Atlanta +3.5 would actually cover.

Therefore, the prediction must distinguish between the projected winner and the spread recommendation.

The supplied AI says:

Falcons 17, Colts 20 — Colts win by 3.

At a spread of Colts -3.5, that projected score would make Atlanta +3.5 the mathematically consistent ATS side.

What Is the Best Falcons vs Colts Preseason Bet?

Based strictly on the supplied AI score prediction, Falcons +3.5 is the stronger ATS interpretation.

The model projects Indianapolis to win by three points, while the market requires the Colts to win by four or more points to cover -3.5.

That distinction matters.

The predicted final score is:

Colts 20, Falcons 17

At that score:

Colts moneyline wins

Colts win the game

Falcons +3.5 covers

Colts -3.5 does not cover

Under 37.5 wins

Therefore, if the goal is to align the wager directly with the supplied AI score prediction, Falcons +3.5 is the logical spread selection.

The source material, however, labels the AI outcome as “Colts to win by 3,” rather than explicitly providing an ATS pick. That distinction should be maintained rather than treating a projected three-point victory as an automatic -3.5 cover.

Falcons vs Colts Quarterback and Preseason Variables

Quarterback usage is one of the most important unknowns in any preseason game.

The supplied information does not specify exactly how long the starting quarterbacks will play on Saturday. That makes it difficult to assign the same weight to the team statistics that would be appropriate during the regular season.

Once starters leave the game, backup quarterbacks can dramatically change offensive efficiency.

A strong preseason quarterback room can therefore become a major advantage.

Indianapolis’ overall offensive numbers suggest that the Colts have been able to move the football efficiently. Atlanta’s 192 yards per game, meanwhile, indicate that its offense has struggled to maintain the same level of production.

The team that gets better quarterback play from its second- and third-string units will likely have the biggest advantage in the second half.

Falcons vs Colts Injury Report

The supplied injury report includes several players unavailable for each team.

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

Storm Norton — Out, ankle

DeAngelo Malone — Out, undisclosed

Jalon Walker — Out, knee

James Pearce Jr. — Out, suspension

Malik Verdon — Out, undisclosed

Billy Bowman Jr. — Out, Achilles

Anterio Thompson — Out, undisclosed

Indianapolis Colts Injuries

Alec Pierce — Out, ankle

Cam Taylor-Britt — Out, suspension

Cameron Mitchell — Out, upper body

Spencer Shrader — Out, knee

Injuries can have an outsized effect on preseason games because the teams are evaluating depth. A missing starter may not be the most important absence if the injured player was expected to provide significant second-team snaps.

The final inactive lists should therefore be checked before kickoff.

Falcons vs Colts Prediction: Key Matchup

The key matchup in this Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction is the Indianapolis rushing attack against the Atlanta run defense.

Indianapolis is averaging 133 rushing yards per game.

Atlanta is allowing 162 rushing yards per game.

That creates a clear statistical advantage for the Colts.

If Indianapolis can establish the run, it can control possession and force Atlanta’s defense to spend more time on the field. That can become especially important in preseason football when coaches are attempting to evaluate multiple offensive units.

The Colts also have a strong defense against the run, allowing only 83 yards per game.

That means Indianapolis can potentially win both sides of the line of scrimmage.

Can the Falcons Beat the Colts?

Yes, Atlanta can absolutely keep this game close.

The Falcons are receiving 3.5 points, and the supplied AI projection actually has Indianapolis winning by only three points.

That means Atlanta has a realistic path to covering.

The Falcons’ best route would be to improve their offensive efficiency, particularly on the ground. Their 59 rushing yards per game is a major weakness, and improving that number would allow the offense to stay ahead of the chains.

Atlanta’s defense also needs to prevent Indianapolis from exploiting its poor run defense.

If the Falcons can force the Colts into third-and-long situations and generate pressure, the game could remain within one possession.

Can the Colts Cover -3.5?

The Colts have the statistical profile necessary to win the game, but covering -3.5 is a different question.

Indianapolis averages 355 yards per game compared with Atlanta’s 192, and the Colts have the superior defense.

Those numbers support an Indianapolis victory.

But the supplied AI projection is 20-17, meaning the Colts are projected to win by only three.

That is less than the 3.5 points required to cover.

Therefore, anyone following the projection exactly should be cautious about laying -3.5.

The strongest conclusion is that Indianapolis is the projected winner, while Atlanta +3.5 has value if the AI’s three-point margin is accurate.

Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction: Final Analysis

The Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction favors Indianapolis because the Colts have the stronger statistical profile on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis is averaging 355 yards per game compared with 192 for Atlanta. The Colts have also produced 133 rushing yards and 222 passing yards per game, while the Falcons are averaging just 59 rushing yards and 133 passing yards.

Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing only 13 points and 275 yards per game. Atlanta is giving up 27 points and 359 yards.

The strongest matchup advantage belongs to Indianapolis’ rushing attack against Atlanta’s run defense. The Colts are producing 133 rushing yards per game while the Falcons are allowing 162.

The betting trends also favor a potentially higher-scoring game, particularly given Indianapolis’ strong preseason Over history. Still, the AI projection has the final score at 20-17, which would land Under 37.5 by the narrowest possible margin.

The most important betting distinction is the spread.

The market has Indianapolis -3.5, but the supplied AI prediction calls for the Colts to win by only three points. Therefore, Atlanta +3.5 is the more consistent ATS selection if following the model’s projected margin.

Final Pick

Falcons +3.5

Predicted Winner

Indianapolis Colts

Predicted Score

Colts 20, Falcons 17

Predicted Margin

Colts by 3 points

Total

37 points — Under 37.5

Falcons vs Colts Preseason NFL Prediction FAQ

Who is favored in Falcons vs Colts?

The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 3.5 points at home. Their moneyline is -195, while Atlanta is +162.

Who is the Falcons vs Colts preseason prediction picking?

The prediction has the Indianapolis Colts winning 20-17.

What is the best Falcons vs Colts preseason bet?

If following the supplied AI score exactly, Falcons +3.5 is the stronger ATS selection because Indianapolis is projected to win by only three points.

What is the Falcons vs Colts over/under?

The betting total is 37.5 points.

Will Falcons vs Colts go Over or Under 37.5?

The supplied betting trends strongly favor the Over, but the AI’s projected score of 20-17 produces 37 points, which would make the Under 37.5 the result of the projected score.

Where is Falcons vs Colts being played?

The game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

When is Falcons vs Colts?

The preseason matchup is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET.

What is the final Falcons vs Colts prediction?

Indianapolis Colts to win 20-17, with Falcons +3.5 as the ATS pick based on the projected three-point margin.