Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Betting Prediction: Who Has the Edge at UFC Sacramento?

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Betting Prediction: Who has the edge at UFC Sacramento, and is Gaziev the best bet at -135?

The Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev betting prediction favors Shamil Gaziev as the side to back at -135. Gaziev enters as the modest favorite, but this heavyweight matchup is competitive because Nzechukwu owns major advantages in height, reach and significant-strike volume.

Pick: Take Shamil Gaziev (-135)

Gaziev’s 265-pound frame, 83% takedown defense and 33% takedown accuracy give him a path to control the fight, while Nzechukwu has struggled to turn his physical advantages into consistent offensive production. Gaziev also has the better career record at 14-3 compared with Nzechukwu’s 14-6-1.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Betting Prediction

Kennedy Nzechukwu and Shamil Gaziev meet at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

The opening moneyline lists Nzechukwu at +115 and Gaziev at -135. The odds make Gaziev a slight favorite rather than a significant one, reflecting a matchup where both fighters have clear strengths.

Nzechukwu enters with a 14-6-1 record and is 34 years old. Gaziev is 36 and owns a 14-3 record.

The physical matchup is interesting. Nzechukwu is listed at 6-foot-5 with an 83-inch reach and weighs 236 pounds. Gaziev is 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach and weighs 265 pounds.

That gives Nzechukwu a five-inch reach advantage, while Gaziev carries a 29-pound weight advantage.

Why Is Shamil Gaziev the Betting Pick?

The primary reason to back Gaziev is his ability to combine size with solid defensive wrestling.

Gaziev lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute and connects on 46% of his attempts. While Nzechukwu produces considerably more volume at 4.96 significant strikes per minute, Gaziev’s physical strength and defensive profile can help him limit Nzechukwu’s opportunities.

Gaziev also stops 83% of takedown attempts.

That number is important because Nzechukwu’s strongest grappling statistic is his 45% takedown accuracy. If Gaziev can prevent Nzechukwu from consistently putting him on the canvas, the fight could increasingly favor the heavier fighter.

Nzechukwu has an 80% takedown-defense rate of his own, so Gaziev may have difficulty establishing prolonged wrestling exchanges. That makes this matchup likely to come down to who can impose his preferred range and physicality.

Can Kennedy Nzechukwu Win?

Absolutely. At +115, Nzechukwu is not a major underdog and has several statistical advantages.

His 4.96 significant strikes per minute are well above Gaziev’s 2.94. Nzechukwu also has superior significant-strike defense, stopping 51% compared with Gaziev’s 45%.

The five-inch reach advantage could be particularly useful in a heavyweight fight.

Nzechukwu also absorbs 4.58 significant strikes per minute, compared with 4.92 for Gaziev.

If Nzechukwu can maintain distance, use his jab and force Gaziev to work from the outside, his striking volume could create a path to victory.

The concern is whether he can consistently maintain that range against a heavier opponent.

Kennedy Nzechukwu’s Striking Numbers

Nzechukwu has the clear volume advantage.

He lands 4.96 significant strikes per minute and connects on 46% of his attempts.

Gaziev lands only 2.94 significant strikes per minute, although he also connects at a 46% rate.

Nzechukwu therefore attempts to create more offense, while Gaziev’s game may depend more heavily on physical pressure, durability and selective striking.

Nzechukwu absorbs 4.58 significant strikes per minute and defends 51% of incoming significant strikes.

Those numbers are slightly better than Gaziev’s 4.92 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 45% defense.

From a pure striking-statistical perspective, Nzechukwu has the edge.

Shamil Gaziev’s Striking Numbers

Gaziev lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute with 46% accuracy.

His offensive volume is significantly lower than Nzechukwu’s, but that does not necessarily mean he cannot win the matchup.

Gaziev’s 265-pound frame gives him a substantial weight advantage.

He absorbs 4.92 significant strikes per minute and defends 45% of significant strikes thrown his way.

That defensive profile creates some concern, especially against a fighter with Nzechukwu’s reach.

Gaziev’s best route is likely to make the fight physical, reduce the distance and prevent Nzechukwu from comfortably operating at long range.

Who Has the Wrestling Advantage?

The wrestling numbers are relatively close, but each fighter has a different advantage.

Nzechukwu averages 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and converts 45% of his attempts. Gaziev lands takedowns at a 33% rate.

However, Gaziev has the stronger takedown defense at 83%, compared with Nzechukwu’s 80%.

Neither fighter is an overwhelming offensive wrestler, and both are relatively effective at defending takedowns.

That could make the fight primarily a striking and physicality contest.

If Gaziev can use his 265-pound frame to dictate positioning and keep Nzechukwu from maximizing his reach advantage, the favorite has a strong chance of winning.

What Happened in Kennedy Nzechukwu’s Last Fight?

Nzechukwu’s most recent fight against Marcus Buchecha ended in a draw by unanimous decision.

Buchecha landed 47 of 66 total strikes, while Nzechukwu landed 58 of 87.

In significant strikes, Buchecha connected on 27 of 44 attempts for 61% accuracy. Nzechukwu landed 24 of 48 for 50%.

Nzechukwu landed 21 of 43 significant strikes aimed at the head.

The performance showed that Nzechukwu can compete effectively in extended striking exchanges, but he was unable to secure a decisive result.

What Happened in Shamil Gaziev’s Last Fight?

Gaziev’s most recent fight was against Brando Pericic, and he lost by second-round knockout via punches to the head.

Gaziev landed 41 of 100 significant strikes for 41% accuracy.

He landed 30 of 88 significant strikes directed at the head.

Pericic was considerably more productive, landing 89 of 163 significant strikes.

Gaziev therefore enters this fight looking to rebound from a stoppage loss.

That recent result is one reason the -135 price should not be treated as a low-risk favorite. Nzechukwu has enough range and striking volume to punish Gaziev if the fight develops similarly.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Tale of the Tape

Statistic | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Shamil Gaziev
Record | 14-6-1 | 14-3-0
Age | 34 | 36
Height | 6’5″ | 6’4″
Weight | 236 lbs | 265 lbs
Reach | 83″ | 78″
Significant Strikes/Min. | 4.96 | 2.94
Significant Strike Accuracy | 46% | 46%
Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 4.58 | 4.92
Significant Strike Defense | 51% | 45%
Takedowns | 0.50/15 Min. | —
Takedown Accuracy | 45% | 33%
Takedown Defense | 80% | 83%
Submission Attempts | 0.2/3 Rounds | 0.3/3 Rounds
Opening Moneyline | +115 | -135

What Is the Best Bet for Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev?

The recommended bet is Shamil Gaziev at -135.

This is a relatively small favorite price, which makes the matchup more attractive than a heavily juiced moneyline would be.

Nzechukwu owns the advantages in striking volume, reach and significant-strike defense. However, Gaziev has the superior overall record, a substantial weight advantage and slightly better takedown defense.

The most important factor could be the 29-pound weight difference.

At heavyweight, physical strength and the ability to impose pressure can dramatically affect how a fight develops. Gaziev’s five-inch reach disadvantage is significant, but his extra weight gives him another way to close distance and make the fight uncomfortable for Nzechukwu.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Prediction

Prediction: Shamil Gaziev wins at UFC Sacramento.

Nzechukwu has the cleaner statistical striking profile, particularly in terms of volume. His 4.96 significant strikes per minute are considerably higher than Gaziev’s 2.94, and his 83-inch reach gives him a major physical advantage.

But Gaziev is the more appealing side at the current number.

His 14-3 record compares favorably with Nzechukwu’s 14-6-1 mark, and he carries nearly 30 additional pounds into the matchup.

Gaziev also owns an 83% takedown-defense rate, which could prevent Nzechukwu from using grappling to disrupt his rhythm.

The favorite is not without risk after a recent knockout loss, but the combination of size, defensive wrestling and career consistency makes Gaziev the preferred pick.

Pick: Shamil Gaziev (-135)

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev Betting Prediction: Final Verdict

The Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev betting prediction points toward Gaziev as the best bet at -135.

Nzechukwu’s five-inch reach advantage and higher striking volume make him a legitimate threat. He lands 4.96 significant strikes per minute compared with Gaziev’s 2.94 and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute.

However, Gaziev has the physical advantage that could determine this heavyweight contest. He weighs 265 pounds compared with Nzechukwu’s 236, while also defending 83% of takedown attempts.

The price is reasonable enough to back Gaziev despite the risks.

Official Pick: Shamil Gaziev (-135)

Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev?

Shamil Gaziev is the opening favorite at -135, while Kennedy Nzechukwu is listed at +115.

What is the best bet for Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev?

The recommended betting pick is Shamil Gaziev at -135.

Who has the striking advantage?

Nzechukwu has the statistical advantage in striking volume, landing 4.96 significant strikes per minute compared with 2.94 for Gaziev.

Who has the reach advantage?

Kennedy Nzechukwu has an 83-inch reach, five inches longer than Shamil Gaziev’s 78-inch reach.

Who has the weight advantage?

Shamil Gaziev weighs 265 pounds, giving him a 29-pound advantage over Nzechukwu’s listed 236 pounds.

Who has better takedown defense?

Gaziev has the slight edge, stopping 83% of takedown attempts compared with Nzechukwu’s 80%.

When is Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev?

The fight is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento.

Where is Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev taking place?

The fight is scheduled for Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

FAQ

Who will win Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev?

Shamil Gaziev is the recommended winner and betting pick.

Should you bet Shamil Gaziev at -135?

Yes. Gaziev is the preferred side at -135 because of his significant weight advantage, stronger career record and 83% takedown defense.

What are the odds for Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev?

The opening odds list Kennedy Nzechukwu at +115 and Shamil Gaziev at -135.

What is Kennedy Nzechukwu’s record?

Kennedy Nzechukwu enters with a 14-6-1 professional record.

What is Shamil Gaziev’s record?

Shamil Gaziev enters with a 14-3 professional record.

Who lands more significant strikes per minute?

Kennedy Nzechukwu lands 4.96 significant strikes per minute, compared with 2.94 for Shamil Gaziev.

Who has the better significant-strike defense?

Nzechukwu has the better listed significant-strike defense at 51%, compared with 45% for Gaziev.

Who has the better takedown defense?

Shamil Gaziev has the better takedown defense at 83%, while Nzechukwu is listed at 80%.

What is the official betting pick?

Shamil Gaziev (-135).