Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze Betting Prediction: Is Reinier de Ridder the Best Bet at -400?

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze Betting Prediction: Is de Ridder worth betting at -400 against Dolidze at UFC Sacramento?

The Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze betting prediction favors Reinier de Ridder at -400. De Ridder enters UFC Sacramento with a 21-4 record and significant advantages in striking defense, takedown production and overall grappling. Roman Dolidze is priced at +316 and has shown finishing ability, but his recent striking numbers and takedown defense create concerns against a fighter who can control where the fight takes place.

Pick: Reinier de Ridder (-400)

The biggest reason to favor de Ridder is his ability to combine his 6-foot-4 frame and 78-inch reach with a more effective wrestling game. He averages 2.56 takedowns per three rounds and lands 48% of his significant strikes. Dolidze averages 3.19 significant strikes per minute but lands only 41% of his attempts while absorbing 3.71 significant strikes per minute.

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze Betting Prediction

UFC Sacramento features a middleweight matchup between Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze on Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. De Ridder enters as the substantial favorite at -400, while Dolidze is listed at +316.

The betting line indicates that de Ridder is expected to win, but the price means bettors need to consider whether his advantages justify laying the large number. At -400, a bettor would need de Ridder to win more than 80% of the time to have theoretical break-even value before considering sportsbook margins.

De Ridder brings a 21-4 record into the matchup, while Dolidze is 15-5. The physical profile also favors de Ridder. He is 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach, compared with Dolidze at 6-foot-2 with a 76-inch reach.

Those differences become particularly important when evaluating the grappling matchup.

Why Is Reinier de Ridder Favored Over Roman Dolidze?

De Ridder has the more well-rounded statistical profile heading into UFC Sacramento. While Dolidze owns a slightly higher significant-strike output, de Ridder is considerably more efficient defensively and offers a stronger wrestling threat.

De Ridder lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute and connects on 48% of his attempts. Dolidze lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute but connects on only 41%.

The bigger difference comes in significant strikes absorbed. De Ridder absorbs 2.36 significant strikes per minute, while Dolidze allows 3.71.

That means Dolidze has been considerably more hittable.

De Ridder also owns the stronger takedown numbers. He averages 2.56 takedowns per three rounds and lands 29% of his attempts. Dolidze averages a 43% takedown completion rate, but his takedown defense is only 32%.

That 32% takedown defense is an important matchup factor.

If de Ridder can consistently put Dolidze on the mat, he can potentially limit Dolidze’s striking volume while creating opportunities to control rounds and pursue submissions.

Reinier de Ridder’s Striking Advantage

The striking numbers might initially suggest that Dolidze has the offensive advantage because he lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute compared with 2.47 for de Ridder.

However, raw volume does not tell the entire story.

De Ridder lands 48% of his significant strikes, compared with 41% for Dolidze. More importantly, de Ridder absorbs only 2.36 significant strikes per minute.

Dolidze absorbs 3.71.

That defensive gap gives de Ridder a more attractive statistical profile despite his lower offensive volume.

De Ridder also has the height and reach advantage. His 78-inch reach is two inches longer than Dolidze’s 76-inch reach, giving him additional opportunities to manage distance.

Dolidze will need to make his higher striking volume count while avoiding extended exchanges where de Ridder’s accuracy and defense can become factors.

Can Roman Dolidze Win the Fight?

Yes. Dolidze is not without a path to victory, particularly at +316.

His 15-5 record demonstrates considerable experience, and he averages 3.19 significant strikes per minute. He also has a 43% takedown success rate and has submitted opponents during his career.

The underdog price becomes interesting if Dolidze can prevent de Ridder from establishing his wrestling game.

Dolidze’s 51% significant-strike defense is respectable, and his 48% takedown defense is cited in some statistical categories, although the supplied matchup data lists his takedown defense at 32%. That discrepancy highlights why bettors should be cautious about relying on one statistic in isolation.

Dolidze’s biggest problem is that his recent performance has not provided the strongest case for backing him outright.

In his most recent fight, he lost to Christian Leroy Duncan by unanimous decision. Dolidze landed only 10 of 34 significant strikes, a 29% connection rate. Duncan landed 54 of 99 significant strikes.

That kind of striking efficiency could be dangerous against de Ridder.

Reinier de Ridder’s Recent Fight

De Ridder is also coming off a loss. He faced Caio Borralho and lost by unanimous decision.

Borralho landed 57 of 98 significant strikes, while de Ridder landed 55 of 141. De Ridder connected on only 39% of his significant-strike attempts.

The result shows that de Ridder is not unbeatable.

His previous performance also raises a question about whether he can generate enough striking offense against opponents who successfully defend his grappling.

Still, de Ridder’s overall statistical profile remains stronger for this particular matchup.

His ability to threaten takedowns can force Dolidze to think about wrestling instead of simply pressing forward with his striking.

Grappling Could Decide UFC Sacramento’s Middleweight Fight

The clearest statistical advantage belongs to de Ridder in the grappling department.

De Ridder averages 2.56 takedowns per three rounds and has a 29% takedown success rate. Dolidze averages 43% on his takedown attempts but has only a 32% takedown defense according to the supplied statistics.

That creates a potentially favorable matchup for de Ridder.

If de Ridder gets Dolidze to the mat, he can use his size, positional control and submission ability to dictate the pace. Dolidze’s 0.7 submission attempts per three rounds show that he can threaten submissions of his own, but de Ridder’s ability to initiate grappling could give him more opportunities to control the fight.

The most important question may therefore be simple: Can Dolidze keep the fight standing?

If the answer is no, de Ridder becomes much easier to favor.

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze Tale of the Tape

Statistic | Reinier de Ridder | Roman Dolidze
Record | 21-4-0 | 15-5-0
Age | 35 | 38
Height | 6’4″ | 6’2″
Reach | 78″ | 76″
Significant Strikes/Min. | 2.47 | 3.19
Significant Strike Accuracy | 48% | 41%
Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 2.36 | 3.71
Takedowns | 2.56 per 3 rounds | 43% success
Takedown Accuracy | 29% | 43%
Takedown Defense | 40% | 32%
Submission Attempts | 0.6 per 15 min. | 0.7 per 3 rounds
Moneyline | -400 | +316

What Happened in Their Last Fights?

Reinier de Ridder vs Caio Borralho

De Ridder lost his most recent fight to Caio Borralho by unanimous decision.

Borralho landed 71 of 112 total strikes, while de Ridder landed 111 of 199 total strikes. In significant strikes, Borralho connected on 57 of 98 attempts, compared with 55 of 141 for de Ridder.

De Ridder’s 39% significant-strike accuracy was a weakness in that matchup.

The lesson for this fight is that de Ridder needs to avoid relying exclusively on striking volume. His best route against Dolidze could be mixing his striking with takedown attempts.

Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Dolidze also enters this matchup after a unanimous-decision defeat.

Against Duncan, Dolidze landed just 10 of 34 significant strikes, while Duncan connected on 54 of 99.

Dolidze did land 40 of 94 total strikes, but his significant-strike output was inefficient.

That performance is especially relevant because de Ridder has the better defensive significant-strike numbers of the two fighters.

What Is the Best Bet for Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze?

The best bet from the supplied card analysis is Reinier de Ridder at -400.

The favorite is expensive, so this is not a matchup where the moneyline automatically represents value simply because de Ridder is expected to win.

At -400, the implied probability is approximately 80%.

That means bettors laying the price are effectively betting that de Ridder wins this fight at least four times out of five over the long term.

The matchup provides several reasons to make that case. De Ridder is younger, taller, longer, more accurate with significant strikes and considerably better defensively against significant strikes. He also has a credible wrestling advantage.

Dolidze’s path to victory is real, but it requires him to overcome several statistical disadvantages.

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze Prediction

Prediction: Reinier de Ridder wins.

The most likely scenario is de Ridder using his length early before mixing in takedowns and clinch work. If he can establish top control, Dolidze may struggle to create enough striking volume to win rounds.

Dolidze’s best chance is to keep the fight standing and capitalize on de Ridder’s relatively modest striking output. His 3.19 significant strikes per minute give him the volume advantage, but his 41% accuracy and 3.71 significant strikes absorbed per minute are concerning.

De Ridder’s 78-inch reach and superior takedown production give him multiple ways to win.

Pick: Reinier de Ridder (-400)

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze Betting Prediction: Final Verdict

The Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze betting prediction points toward de Ridder because he owns the more complete statistical profile.

Dolidze has the higher significant-strike output, but de Ridder is more accurate and absorbs significantly fewer significant strikes. The biggest advantage comes in wrestling, where de Ridder can potentially dictate the fight with takedowns and positional control.

The price is steep at -400, but the matchup supports the favorite. Dolidze would need to produce a significant improvement from his recent loss to Duncan and find a way to neutralize de Ridder’s grappling.

For bettors willing to lay the favorite’s price, Reinier de Ridder (-400) is the recommended pick.

Official Pick: Reinier de Ridder (-400)

Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze?

Reinier de Ridder is the favorite at -400, while Roman Dolidze is listed at +316.

What is the best bet for Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze?

The recommended bet is Reinier de Ridder at -400.

What is Reinier de Ridder’s record?

Reinier de Ridder enters UFC Sacramento with a 21-4-0 professional record.

What is Roman Dolidze’s record?

Roman Dolidze enters the fight with a 15-5-0 professional record.

Who has the better wrestling matchup?

Reinier de Ridder has the stronger overall wrestling profile, averaging 2.56 takedowns per three rounds.

Who has the better striking numbers?

Roman Dolidze lands more significant strikes per minute, but de Ridder has better significant-strike accuracy and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute.

FAQ

Who will win Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze?

Reinier de Ridder is the recommended winner. His combination of size, striking defense and wrestling gives him multiple paths to victory.

Should you bet Reinier de Ridder at -400?

De Ridder is the recommended pick at -400, although the price requires a high win probability to justify the risk. Bettors should consider the substantial juice before placing a wager.

What are the odds for Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze?

The supplied opening odds list Reinier de Ridder at -400 and Roman Dolidze at +316.

When is Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze?

The fight is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento.

Where is UFC Sacramento taking place?

UFC Sacramento is scheduled to take place at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

Does Roman Dolidze have a path to victory?

Yes. Dolidze can threaten de Ridder if he keeps the fight standing, takes advantage of his higher striking volume and avoids being controlled by de Ridder’s wrestling.

Who has the reach advantage?

Reinier de Ridder has the reach advantage at 78 inches compared with Roman Dolidze’s 76 inches.

Who has the better takedown numbers?

De Ridder averages 2.56 takedowns per three rounds, giving him the stronger overall takedown-production profile in this matchup.

What is the official betting pick?

Reinier de Ridder (-400).