Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction: Can Elise Reed Pull Off a Massive UFC Sacramento Upset?

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction: Can Elise Reed beat Dyer at UFC Sacramento? See odds, stats, matchup analysis and our free UFC pick.

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC Sacramento?

The Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction favors Elise Reed as a major underdog despite Shanelle Dyer entering UFC Sacramento as a massive betting favorite. Dyer is priced at -750, while Reed comes back at +534 for their 115-pound matchup at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026.

Dyer brings a 7-1-0 record into the fight and has demonstrated significant offensive production, averaging 7.71 significant strikes per minute. Reed enters with an 8-5-0 record and averages 3.41 significant strikes per minute, but she owns advantages in significant-strike accuracy and defensive metrics.

The Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction is Elise Reed +534. The underdog price provides substantial potential value, particularly because Reed has shown the ability to defend strikes effectively and land a high percentage of her attempts.

Who is the pick for Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed?

Pick: Elise Reed +534

Dyer deserves to be the favorite based on her overall offensive output, recent victory and wrestling profile. However, a price of -750 requires a very high probability of victory. Reed’s 53% significant-strike accuracy, 3.26 significant strikes absorbed per minute and recent experience give her enough statistical support to make the enormous underdog price attractive.

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction Summary

Fight: Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed

Event: UFC Sacramento

Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026

Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento

Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight

Dyer Record: 7-1-0

Reed Record: 8-5-0

Dyer Odds: -750

Reed Odds: +534

Prediction: Elise Reed +534

The primary factor behind this Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction is the enormous gap between the fighters’ moneyline prices and Reed’s underlying statistical profile. Dyer has considerably more offensive volume, but Reed’s accuracy and defensive numbers make her a dangerous opponent at such a large price.

Table of Contents

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Odds

Dyer’s Striking Advantage

Elise Reed’s Statistical Case

Dyer vs Reed Wrestling Matchup

Recent Fight Results

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Prediction and Pick

Frequently Asked Questions

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Odds

The opening betting line has Shanelle Dyer at -750 and Elise Reed at +534.

Those numbers make Dyer one of the biggest favorites on the UFC Sacramento card. A -750 favorite implies that the market expects Dyer to win most of the time, while Reed’s +534 price indicates that bookmakers view her as a significant underdog.

From a betting perspective, that distinction is important.

Picking Dyer to win means paying a substantial premium for the favorite. Betting Reed, meanwhile, requires only a relatively small wager compared with the potential return if she wins.

That makes the Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction more about evaluating whether Reed has enough paths to victory to justify the underdog price rather than simply determining which fighter is more likely to win.

What Does -750 Mean?

A -750 moneyline requires a $750 wager to win $100 in profit, excluding the returned stake.

What Does +534 Mean?

A +534 underdog wager would return $534 in profit on a $100 bet, excluding the original $100 stake, if Reed wins.

Because the odds are so wide, Reed does not need to be the most likely fighter to win for the underdog to potentially offer betting value.

Dyer’s Striking Advantage

The strongest argument for Shanelle Dyer is her striking volume.

Dyer averages 7.71 significant strikes per minute, compared with 3.41 for Reed. That is a substantial difference in offensive activity.

Dyer also lands 46% of her significant-strike attempts. While Reed has the better accuracy percentage, Dyer’s ability to generate nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute can create pressure over the course of a fight.

Dyer’s defensive statistics are more concerning. She absorbs 6.72 significant strikes per minute, compared with just 3.26 for Reed.

That difference could become important if Reed is able to keep the fight standing.

Dyer’s 51% significant-strike defense is identical to Reed’s 51%, meaning the major difference is not necessarily their percentage of shots avoided. Instead, it is the amount of offensive and defensive activity each fighter produces.

Dyer’s recent victory also showed her ability to finish an opponent with ground-and-pound. Against Ravena Oliveira, Dyer landed 49 of 78 significant strikes and finished the fight with punches to the head while Oliveira was on the ground in the second round.

Elise Reed’s Statistical Case

The case for Reed in this Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction starts with efficiency.

Reed lands 53% of her significant-strike attempts, compared with 46% for Dyer. She also absorbs only 3.26 significant strikes per minute.

That defensive number is particularly noteworthy because Dyer’s biggest statistical advantage comes from volume.

If Reed can limit Dyer’s ability to consistently land at her preferred pace, the fight could become much more competitive than the betting line suggests.

Reed also has a 51% significant-strike defense rate. Combined with her ability to land more than half of her significant-strike attempts, she has the technical statistics necessary to punish mistakes if Dyer becomes overly aggressive.

The biggest question is whether Reed can maintain those efficiencies against a fighter who generates such a high volume of offense.

Dyer vs Reed Wrestling Matchup

The wrestling matchup provides another reason why Dyer is such a substantial favorite.

Dyer averages 0.70 takedowns per three rounds, while Reed averages a higher takedown success rate, converting 60% of her attempts.

Dyer has attempted takedowns at an 8% success rate in the supplied statistics, but her takedown defense is perfect at 100%.

That is a significant statistic heading into UFC Sacramento.

Reed has stuffed 53% of the takedowns attempted against her. Dyer, meanwhile, has successfully defended every listed takedown attempt against her.

Dyer also has the edge in submission activity, attempting 0.9 submissions per three rounds, while Reed averages 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Therefore, Dyer has several avenues to win the fight. She can pressure with volume, potentially take the fight to the mat and look for submissions or ground-and-pound.

For Reed, the clearest route may be maintaining distance, making Dyer work and capitalizing when Dyer’s high-volume attack creates openings.

Recent Fight Results

Dyer enters the matchup following a second-round stoppage of Ravena Oliveira.

Dyer was highly effective in that fight, landing 50 of 79 total strikes and 49 of 78 significant strikes. She connected on 62% of her significant-strike attempts and ultimately finished Oliveira with punches to the head while on the ground.

That performance illustrates why Dyer has attracted such a large betting price.

Reed’s most recent fight went in the opposite direction.

She faced Denise Gomes and lost by punches to the head in the second round. Reed landed 11 of 21 significant strikes for a 52% connection rate, while Gomes connected on 28 of 42 significant strikes.

The result is clearly a concern for anyone backing Reed.

However, betting an underdog at +534 requires evaluating more than the previous result. Reed still demonstrated considerable accuracy in the fight and has defensive statistics that could help her against Dyer’s aggressive offensive approach.

Why Is Shanelle Dyer Such a Big Favorite?

Dyer’s -750 price is largely supported by her offensive volume, wrestling ability and recent finishing performance.

She lands more than twice as many significant strikes per minute as Reed and has demonstrated a strong ability to finish fights when she establishes top position.

Dyer is also six years younger and owns a 7-1-0 record.

However, the size of the favorite price creates an important betting distinction. Dyer can be the more likely winner while Reed can still be the better betting value.

That is the central argument behind this Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction.

Can Elise Reed Beat Shanelle Dyer?

Yes, Reed has a realistic path to an upset.

Her best chance is likely to prevent Dyer from turning the fight into a sustained offensive assault. Reed lands 53% of her significant strikes and absorbs just 3.26 significant strikes per minute.

If she can use that accuracy while keeping Dyer from establishing dominant grappling positions, she can make the fight much more competitive than the odds suggest.

The biggest concern is Dyer’s offensive output.

A fighter averaging 7.71 significant strikes per minute can create a difficult pace for an opponent, especially if she can combine striking with takedowns and submission attempts.

Reed therefore needs to avoid allowing Dyer to dictate where the fight takes place.

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Prediction and Pick

The Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed Betting Prediction is Elise Reed +534.

Dyer is understandably favored. Her 7.71 significant strikes landed per minute, strong recent performance and grappling statistics give her several different ways to win.

But the betting line is extremely expensive.

At +534, Reed offers considerably more potential value than Dyer at -750. Reed’s 53% significant-strike accuracy and 3.26 significant strikes absorbed per minute suggest that she can remain competitive if she keeps the fight at a manageable pace.

Dyer’s biggest statistical weakness is also relevant: she absorbs 6.72 significant strikes per minute. That number leaves room for Reed to land meaningful offense if she can avoid being overwhelmed by Dyer’s volume.

The recent results point toward Dyer, but the underlying matchup statistics provide enough reason to consider Reed at the massive underdog number.

Final Pick

Pick: Elise Reed +534

The preferred betting selection is Elise Reed +534. Dyer remains the more likely winner on paper, but Reed’s price is attractive enough to make the underdog the preferred value play.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored in Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed?

Shanelle Dyer is the favorite at -750, while Elise Reed is listed at +534.

What is the Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed betting prediction?

The pick is Elise Reed +534. The underdog offers significantly more potential value at the current opening price.

What is Shanelle Dyer’s UFC record?

Dyer enters UFC Sacramento with a 7-1-0 professional record.

What is Elise Reed’s UFC record?

Reed enters the matchup with an 8-5-0 professional record.

Who has the better striking statistics?

Dyer has substantially higher striking volume, averaging 7.71 significant strikes per minute. Reed, however, has better significant-strike accuracy at 53% compared with Dyer’s 46%.

Who has better striking defense?

Based on the supplied statistics, Reed has the stronger defensive profile. She absorbs 3.26 significant strikes per minute, while Dyer absorbs 6.72.

Who has the better wrestling numbers?

Dyer has the stronger overall grappling profile, particularly with her takedown defense and submission activity. She has stopped 100% of the listed takedown attempts against her and averages 0.9 submission attempts per three rounds.

When is Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed?

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento in Sacramento, California.

Where is UFC Sacramento taking place?

The event is scheduled for Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

Is Elise Reed a good underdog bet?

At the supplied +534 opening price, Reed is the recommended underdog value play. The price is supported by her 53% significant-strike accuracy and relatively low rate of significant strikes absorbed, although Dyer remains the statistical favorite based on offensive volume and grappling.