MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Prediction: Can Mason Jones Win at -265?

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Prediction: Can Mason Jones (-265) beat Mederos (+219) at UFC Sacramento on August 22, 2026?

Mason Jones is the pick to beat MarQuel Mederos at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Jones enters as the -265 favorite, while Mederos is listed at +219. The matchup gives Jones advantages in experience, reach, takedown offense and overall grappling, while Mederos owns the better significant-strike accuracy and a strong 82% takedown defense. Based on the supplied statistics, Mason Jones (-265) is the recommended betting pick.

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Prediction

The MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones betting prediction favors Jones because the 31-year-old brings an 18-2-0 (1 NC) professional record into this UFC Sacramento matchup and has a five-inch reach advantage. Mederos is 11-1-1, making this an intriguing fight between two fighters with strong records, but Jones has the more established overall résumé.

Jones is listed at 5’10” with a 74-inch reach, while Mederos stands 5’10” with a 69-inch reach. Both fighters compete at 155 pounds and are orthodox.

The opening odds reinforce the difference in expectations. Mederos is priced at +219, giving him significant underdog status, while Jones is -265. A $100 bet on Jones at -265 would return approximately $137.74 in total, including the original stake, while a $100 wager on Mederos at +219 would return $319 if he wins.

For this MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones betting prediction, the strongest case for Jones comes from his wrestling advantage and ability to mix his grappling with striking. Mederos has excellent takedown defense, but Jones has a much higher takedown completion rate and should have opportunities to dictate where the fight takes place.

Pick: Mason Jones (-265)

Fight Information

Category | MarQuel Mederos | Mason Jones
Record | 11-1-1 | 18-2-0 (1 NC)
Age | 29 | 31
Height | 5’10” | 5’10”
Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs
Reach | 69″ | 74″
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox
Significant Strikes/Min. | 5.46 | 5.98
Significant Strike Accuracy | 58% | 42%
Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 4.58 | 4.45
Significant Strike Defense | 52% | 50%
Takedowns | 0.23 per 3 rounds | Higher offensive rate
Takedown Accuracy | 8% | 55%
Takedown Defense | 82% | 73%
Submission Attempts | 0.8 per 3 rounds | 0.2 per 15 minutes
Opening Odds | +219 | -265

Summary of the MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Prediction

Pick: Mason Jones

Moneyline: -265

Underdog: MarQuel Mederos +219

Event: UFC Sacramento

Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026

Venue: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento

Weight Class: 155 pounds

Best statistical advantage: Jones’ wrestling and takedown efficiency

Reach advantage: Jones by 5 inches

Mederos’ biggest advantage: Significant-strike accuracy and takedown defense

Prediction: Mason Jones to win

Table of Contents

Why Mason Jones Is the Favorite

MarQuel Mederos’ Case to Win

Mason Jones’ Statistical Advantages

Striking Comparison

Grappling Comparison

Recent Fight Results

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Pick

Follow-Up Questions

FAQ

Why Is Mason Jones the Favorite?

Mason Jones is favored because he combines a strong career record with advantages that could directly affect the matchup. At 18-2-0 (1 NC), Jones has considerably more professional wins than Mederos, who enters at 11-1-1.

The most obvious physical advantage is Jones’ reach. Both fighters are listed at 5’10”, but Jones owns a 74-inch reach compared with 69 inches for Mederos. That five-inch difference can become important during exchanges, particularly if Jones chooses to fight behind his jab and maintain distance.

Jones also has a significant grappling advantage on paper. He completes 55% of his takedown attempts, compared with only 8% for Mederos. Jones also stops 73% of opponents’ takedown attempts.

That does not mean Mederos cannot neutralize the wrestling. His 82% takedown defense is actually better than Jones’ 73%. However, Jones has demonstrated considerably more offensive wrestling efficiency.

The MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones betting prediction therefore leans toward Jones because he has multiple paths to winning. He can compete at distance, use his reach, or attempt to bring Mederos into grappling exchanges.

MarQuel Mederos’ Case to Win

Mederos should not be dismissed simply because he is a sizable underdog.

His 11-1-1 record is impressive, and his striking numbers provide a legitimate reason for bettors to consider the +219 price. Mederos lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute and connects on 58% of his significant-strike attempts.

That accuracy is substantially better than Jones’ 42%.

Mederos also has a respectable 52% significant-strike defense, while Jones sits at 50%. More importantly, Mederos absorbs 4.58 significant strikes per minute, compared with 4.45 for Jones, so neither fighter has a massive defensive advantage in that category.

Mederos’ biggest weapon may ultimately be his takedown defense. If he can consistently keep Jones from establishing his wrestling game, the fight could become a striking contest where Mederos’ accuracy becomes much more important.

His recent majority-decision draw against Chris Padilla also demonstrated his ability to produce a high-volume striking performance. Mederos landed 112 of 180 significant strikes, or 62%, in that fight.

The underdog’s path is therefore relatively straightforward: defend the takedowns, force Jones to exchange at range and capitalize on his superior accuracy.

Mason Jones’ Statistical Advantages

The statistical case for Jones goes beyond his moneyline price.

He lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute, slightly higher than Mederos’ 5.46. Although Jones’ 42% accuracy is lower, his volume remains strong.

Jones also absorbs 4.45 significant strikes per minute, marginally fewer than Mederos’ 4.58. His 50% significant-strike defense is close to Mederos’ 52%.

The more substantial difference comes in wrestling.

Jones lands takedowns at a 55% success rate, while Mederos converts only 8% of his attempts. Jones also owns a 73% takedown defense, giving him the tools to both initiate grappling and prevent Mederos from taking control.

Mederos has a better takedown defense at 82%, but Jones’ offensive wrestling is arguably the more important statistic because he is the fighter more likely to actively pursue the grappling exchanges.

Jones also has the reach advantage. At 74 inches, he can potentially create more distance while still landing his straight punches.

Striking Comparison

The striking numbers make this matchup more competitive than the betting line might initially suggest.

Mederos lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute, while Jones lands 5.98. Jones therefore owns the slight volume advantage.

Mederos, however, is much more efficient with his offense. His 58% significant-strike accuracy compares with Jones’ 42%.

That creates an interesting stylistic contrast.

Jones throws and lands at a higher rate, while Mederos lands a greater percentage of the shots he throws. If the fight remains standing for extended periods, Mederos’ accuracy could give him opportunities to make the favorite uncomfortable.

Defensively, the numbers are relatively close. Mederos absorbs 4.58 significant strikes per minute and Jones absorbs 4.45.

Neither fighter has a major statistical advantage in significant-strike defense, although Jones’ five-inch reach advantage could help him manage distance.

For the MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones betting prediction, the striking numbers suggest that Mederos has a realistic route to an upset. However, Jones’ ability to incorporate wrestling gives him another avenue to victory.

Grappling Comparison

Grappling is where the matchup tilts more decisively toward Jones.

Mederos averages only 0.23 takedowns per three rounds and has landed just 8% of his attempts. Jones, meanwhile, converts 55% of his takedown attempts.

Jones also has a strong 73% takedown defense.

Mederos’ 82% takedown defense is the best defensive number between the two fighters, meaning Jones may not be able to repeatedly take him down. Still, Jones has the clear offensive advantage if he decides to wrestle.

Submission statistics also add another wrinkle. Mederos attempts 0.8 submissions per three rounds, while Jones averages 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes. Mederos is therefore the more active submission hunter based on the supplied numbers.

That means Jones does not necessarily need to chase submissions. His wrestling could instead be used to control position, disrupt Mederos’ striking rhythm and accumulate effective offense.

If Jones can secure takedowns despite Mederos’ 82% defense, his path to victory becomes considerably stronger.

Recent Fight Results

How Did MarQuel Mederos Perform in His Last Fight?

Mederos fought Chris Padilla in his most recent Octagon appearance and the bout ended in a majority-decision draw.

Padilla landed 147 of 271 significant strikes, while Mederos connected on 112 of 180. Mederos therefore landed 62% of his significant strikes.

Mederos also landed 81 of 147 significant strikes to the head. The fight showed his ability to maintain offensive efficiency while absorbing substantial volume from his opponent.

The draw also demonstrates why the +219 price should not be treated as an automatic pass. Mederos has the striking ability to make this matchup competitive.

How Did Mason Jones Perform in His Last Fight?

Jones’ most recent fight was against Axel Sola, and Jones won by unanimous decision.

Jones landed 110 of 236 significant strikes, including 76 of 193 significant strikes aimed at the head. He also landed 123 of 251 total strikes.

Sola connected on 65 of 135 significant strikes.

Jones’ performance illustrates his ability to win a decision through volume and sustained offense. It also provides evidence that he can fight for three rounds and maintain a meaningful striking output.

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Pick

The recommended MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones betting prediction is Mason Jones (-265).

Jones is more expensive than a typical betting favorite, so the price is an important consideration. At -265, bettors are being asked to pay a premium for the favorite. The question is whether his statistical advantages justify that price.

In this matchup, the answer is yes.

Jones has the better professional record, a five-inch reach advantage, higher significant-strike volume and a much stronger takedown success rate. His 55% takedown accuracy compared with Mederos’ 8% is particularly noteworthy.

Mederos has the superior significant-strike accuracy and takedown defense, which means the underdog has legitimate upset potential. However, Jones appears to have more ways to win.

The safest interpretation of the supplied numbers is that Jones should be able to use his physical dimensions and wrestling to prevent Mederos from turning this into the type of pure striking contest where the underdog’s accuracy would become the primary factor.

Final Pick: Mason Jones (-265)

What Is the Best Bet for MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones?

The best bet from the supplied lines is Mason Jones moneyline at -265.

Jones’ wrestling advantage is the primary reason for the selection. His 55% takedown accuracy gives him a clear offensive grappling edge, while his 73% takedown defense provides protection against Mederos’ attempts to change the fight’s location.

Can MarQuel Mederos Beat Mason Jones?

Yes. Mederos has a legitimate path to victory, particularly if he keeps the fight standing. His 58% significant-strike accuracy is considerably higher than Jones’ 42%, and his 82% takedown defense could prevent Jones from fully exploiting his wrestling advantage.

However, the overall statistical profile favors Jones.

Who Has the Better Striking Numbers?

Mederos has the better significant-strike accuracy, at 58% compared with Jones’ 42%. Jones has the higher significant strikes landed per minute, at 5.98 compared with 5.46.

Who Has the Better Wrestling?

Jones has the stronger offensive wrestling profile. He completes 55% of his takedown attempts, while Mederos completes 8%. Mederos has the better takedown defense, 82% to Jones’ 73%.

Follow-Up Questions

What Are the Odds for MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones?

The opening moneyline lists MarQuel Mederos at +219 and Mason Jones at -265.

Where Is MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Taking Place?

The fight is scheduled for UFC Sacramento at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, on Saturday, August 22, 2026.

What Weight Class Is MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones?

Both fighters are listed at 155 pounds, placing the bout in the lightweight division.

Who Has the Reach Advantage?

Mason Jones has the reach advantage. Jones is listed at 74 inches, while Mederos has a 69-inch reach, giving Jones a five-inch advantage.

Who Is the Favorite in MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones?

Mason Jones is the favorite at -265, while MarQuel Mederos is the +219 underdog.

What Is the MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Prediction?

The prediction is Mason Jones to win at -265. His wrestling efficiency, reach advantage and higher striking volume provide the strongest statistical case.

FAQ

Who should I pick in MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones?

Mason Jones (-265) is the recommended pick based on the supplied statistics and opening odds.

Is MarQuel Mederos a good underdog bet?

Mederos at +219 has upset potential because of his 58% significant-strike accuracy and 82% takedown defense. However, Jones’ wrestling and reach advantages make the favorite the preferred selection.

Does Mason Jones have a wrestling advantage?

Yes. Jones converts 55% of his takedown attempts, compared with 8% for Mederos, giving him a substantial offensive wrestling advantage.

Does MarQuel Mederos have better striking accuracy?

Yes. Mederos lands 58% of his significant-strike attempts, while Jones lands 42%. Jones, however, lands more significant strikes per minute, 5.98 to 5.46.

What is the official betting pick?

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones Betting Prediction: Take Mason Jones (-265).