Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction: Can Vitor Petrino Beat Serghei Spivac at UFC Sacramento?

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction: Who will win at UFC Sacramento? See the odds, striking stats, wrestling matchup and free UFC pick.

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction: Who Will Win at UFC Sacramento?

The Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction favors Vitor Petrino when he takes on Serghei Spivac at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Petrino enters the matchup as a -149 favorite, while Spivac is listed at +129 for their heavyweight bout at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

Spivac brings an 18-6-0 record into the fight, while Petrino is 14-2-0. The matchup features an interesting contrast between Spivac’s wrestling volume and Petrino’s defensive ability. Spivac averages 3.82 takedowns per three rounds and converts 59% of his attempts, but Petrino has stopped 79% of the takedowns attempted against him.

The striking numbers are relatively close offensively. Spivac lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy, while Petrino lands 3.24 at 48%. However, Petrino absorbs just 2.71 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.23 for Spivac.

That defensive difference is one of the biggest reasons to favor the favorite.

Pick: Vitor Petrino -149

Who is the pick for Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino?

Pick: Vitor Petrino -149

Petrino has the superior defensive striking numbers and an impressive 79% takedown defense, which could neutralize Spivac’s biggest weapon. Spivac’s wrestling creates legitimate danger, but Petrino’s ability to defend takedowns while absorbing fewer significant strikes makes him the preferred betting side.

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction Summary

Fight: Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino

Event: UFC Sacramento

Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026

Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento

Weight Class: Heavyweight

Spivac Record: 18-6-0

Petrino Record: 14-2-0

Spivac Odds: +129

Petrino Odds: -149

Prediction: Vitor Petrino -149

The central factor in this Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction is Petrino’s ability to defend against Spivac’s wrestling. Spivac averages substantially more takedowns, but Petrino’s 79% takedown defense gives him the statistical tools to keep the fight in his preferred range.

Table of Contents

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Odds

Vitor Petrino’s Striking Advantage

Serghei Spivac’s Wrestling Advantage

Recent Fight Results

Keys to the Fight

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Prediction and Pick

Frequently Asked Questions

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Odds

Vitor Petrino is listed at -149, making him a modest favorite over Serghei Spivac at +129.

The line indicates a competitive matchup rather than a one-sided favorite-versus-underdog situation. Petrino is expected to win, but Spivac’s wrestling and experience give him a credible path to an upset.

At -149, a $149 wager on Petrino would produce $100 in profit if he wins, excluding the returned stake. A $100 bet on Spivac at +129 would produce $129 in profit if the underdog wins.

The relatively narrow price makes the statistical matchup especially important.

Vitor Petrino’s Striking Advantage

Petrino’s most significant statistical advantage comes from defense.

He absorbs only 2.71 significant strikes per minute, while Spivac absorbs 4.23.

That is a meaningful gap.

Offensively, the two fighters are much closer. Spivac lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute, while Petrino lands 3.24. Spivac has a 47% accuracy rate compared with Petrino’s 48%.

Therefore, Petrino’s edge is not necessarily about producing dramatically more offense. It is about being considerably more difficult to hit.

Petrino also defends 51% of his opponents’ significant strikes, while Spivac defends 52%. The defensive percentages are nearly identical, but Petrino’s lower absorption rate remains important.

His recent fight against Steven Asplund also showed impressive offensive efficiency. Petrino landed 92 of 161 significant strikes, connecting on 57% of his attempts.

He landed 59 of 126 significant strikes directed at the head.

That type of efficiency could create problems for Spivac if Petrino is able to keep the fight standing.

Serghei Spivac’s Wrestling Advantage

Spivac’s strongest weapon is unquestionably his wrestling.

He averages 3.82 takedowns per three rounds, while Petrino averages 2.60 takedowns per 15 minutes in the supplied statistics.

More importantly, Spivac converts his takedown attempts at a 59% rate.

That gives him a reliable way to change the fight’s location.

Spivac also defends 63% of takedowns attempted against him. Petrino, however, has the superior number in this category, stopping 79% of takedown attempts.

That 16-percentage-point gap could be critical.

If Petrino can consistently remain upright, Spivac loses access to the area where he has the biggest statistical advantage.

Spivac averages only 0.5 submission attempts per three rounds, compared with Petrino’s 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes. Neither fighter is primarily defined by submission volume, although both have demonstrated finishing ability.

Recent Fight Results

Spivac enters this matchup after defeating Ante Delija by unanimous decision.

Spivac landed 102 of 185 total strikes and connected on 67 of 149 significant strikes. He landed 44% of his significant-strike attempts.

The performance showed Spivac’s ability to maintain a high volume of offense over three rounds.

Petrino also enters following a unanimous decision victory, defeating Steven Asplund.

Petrino landed 92 of 161 significant strikes for a 57% connection rate and connected on 59 of 126 significant strikes to the head.

Both fighters therefore enter UFC Sacramento with recent victories, but Petrino’s more efficient striking numbers provide a compelling advantage.

Keys to the Fight

Can Spivac Get Takedowns?

This is the biggest question for the underdog.

Spivac averages 3.82 takedowns per three rounds and has a 59% takedown success rate. If he can repeatedly put Petrino on the mat, he can control the pace and potentially neutralize Petrino’s striking.

Can Petrino Stop the Wrestling?

Petrino’s 79% takedown defense could be the most important number in this matchup.

If that defense holds up, Spivac may be forced to spend substantially more time fighting on the feet.

Who Has the Better Defensive Profile?

Petrino has the clear advantage in significant strikes absorbed per minute.

He takes 2.71 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.23 for Spivac. Over a three-round fight, that difference can become significant if both fighters maintain similar offensive volume.

Why Is Vitor Petrino Favored?

Petrino is favored because he has a combination of offensive efficiency and defensive wrestling that directly addresses Spivac’s strengths.

His 79% takedown defense is particularly important against a fighter averaging 3.82 takedowns per three rounds.

Petrino is also younger at 28 compared with Spivac at 31, although Spivac has the physical advantage in the matchup. Spivac stands 6’3″ with a 78-inch reach, while Petrino is 6’2″ with a 77-inch reach.

Spivac also weighs 260 pounds compared with Petrino’s listed 225 pounds.

That size difference cannot be ignored.

However, Petrino’s statistical efficiency and defensive profile make him the preferred side at the current price.

Can Serghei Spivac Beat Vitor Petrino?

Yes. Spivac has a clear upset route.

His size advantage and wrestling volume could make this a difficult matchup for Petrino if Spivac is able to consistently close distance and secure takedowns.

Spivac also has an 18-6-0 record and has demonstrated the ability to win over three rounds.

The biggest obstacle is Petrino’s takedown defense.

If Spivac cannot consistently get Petrino to the mat, he may have to spend too much time exchanging with a fighter who absorbs significantly fewer significant strikes per minute.

That makes Spivac’s ability to impose his wrestling game the most important factor in determining whether the underdog can cash.

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Prediction and Pick

The Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino Betting Prediction is Vitor Petrino -149.

Petrino has a meaningful statistical advantage in defensive striking and takedown defense. He absorbs 2.71 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.23 for Spivac and has stopped 79% of takedown attempts against him.

Spivac’s wrestling remains the biggest threat. His 3.82 takedowns per three rounds and 59% takedown accuracy give him a legitimate path to control the fight.

However, Petrino’s ability to defend takedowns could force Spivac into a striking battle, where Petrino’s defensive numbers become increasingly valuable.

Final Pick

Pick: Vitor Petrino -149

Petrino is the recommended betting selection. Spivac’s wrestling and size make this a competitive matchup, but Petrino’s 79% takedown defense and lower significant-strike absorption rate give him the statistical edge.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored in Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino?

Vitor Petrino is the favorite at -149, while Serghei Spivac is listed at +129.

What is the Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino betting prediction?

The pick is Vitor Petrino -149.

What is Serghei Spivac’s record?

Spivac enters UFC Sacramento with an 18-6-0 record.

What is Vitor Petrino’s record?

Petrino enters the fight with a 14-2-0 record.

Who has the better wrestling statistics?

Spivac has the superior offensive wrestling numbers, averaging 3.82 takedowns per three rounds and converting 59% of his attempts.

Who has better takedown defense?

Petrino has the advantage, stopping 79% of takedowns attempted against him compared with Spivac’s 63%.

Who has the better striking numbers?

The fighters are relatively close offensively, but Petrino has the stronger defensive profile. He lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and absorbs 2.71 per minute.

Who is coming off a win?

Both fighters are coming off unanimous decision victories. Spivac defeated Ante Delija, while Petrino defeated Steven Asplund.

When is Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino?

The fight is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento.

Where is UFC Sacramento taking place?

The event is scheduled for Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

Should you bet Vitor Petrino at -149?

Based on the supplied statistics, Vitor Petrino -149 is the recommended side. His takedown defense directly counters Spivac’s primary weapon, while his lower significant-strike absorption rate gives him an additional advantage in the striking exchanges.