Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Betting Prediction: Who Is the Best Bet at UFC Sacramento?

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Betting Prediction: Who has the edge at UFC Sacramento, and is Judice worth backing at -525?

The Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves betting prediction favors Carli Judice as the winner and the recommended betting side at -525. Judice brings a significant striking-volume advantage, landing 9.32 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.97 for Chaves.

Pick: Take Carli Judice (-525)

Chaves enters undefeated at 8-0, but Judice has the more active offensive profile and has shown an ability to maintain a high pace over three rounds. Her 57% significant-strike defense also gives her a statistical edge over Chaves’ 53%.

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Betting Prediction

Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves meet at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

The opening moneyline lists Judice as a heavy -525 favorite, while Chaves is priced at +400.

Judice enters with a 6-2 record, while Chaves remains undefeated at 8-0.

The physical matchup is nearly even. Judice is 5-foot-7 and Chaves is 5-foot-6, with both fighters weighing 115 pounds and carrying a 68-inch reach.

The biggest statistical difference comes in striking volume.

Judice lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute, almost twice Chaves’ 4.97.

Why Is Carli Judice the Betting Pick?

Judice’s offensive pace is the clearest reason to favor her.

She lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute and connects on 50% of her attempts. Chaves is more accurate at 56%, but she produces only 4.97 significant strikes per minute.

That volume difference could become important if the fight reaches the later rounds.

Judice also owns a 57% significant-strike defense rate. Chaves defends 53%.

The matchup is therefore not simply about Judice throwing more. She also has a slight statistical advantage in preventing opponents from landing significant strikes.

The biggest drawback is the price. At -525, bettors are paying a substantial premium for Judice.

Can Jeisla Chaves Pull the Upset?

Chaves has a legitimate argument as an underdog because she is undefeated at 8-0.

She also has the superior significant-strike accuracy, landing 56% compared with Judice’s 50%.

More importantly, Chaves absorbs only 4.20 significant strikes per minute, compared with 6.62 for Judice.

That statistic should not be ignored.

Chaves has demonstrated an ability to avoid taking the same volume of damage as Judice, and her 62% takedown defense could make it difficult for Judice to consistently shift the fight toward grappling.

At +400, Chaves offers considerable upset value if she can keep the fight controlled and prevent Judice from establishing her usual striking pace.

Carli Judice’s Striking Numbers

Judice is one of the higher-volume strikers in this matchup.

She lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute while connecting on 50% of her attempts.

Her 6.62 significant strikes absorbed per minute is a concern, but she compensates with a 57% significant-strike defense rate.

Judice’s ability to maintain pressure could be the deciding factor.

Against Juliana Miller, Judice landed 104 of 214 total strikes and controlled enough of the action to earn a unanimous-decision victory.

She also landed 79 of 185 significant strikes.

That performance demonstrates her ability to generate a large amount of offense over a full fight.

Jeisla Chaves’ Striking Numbers

Chaves lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute and connects on 56% of her attempts.

Her accuracy is better than Judice’s, but her volume is considerably lower.

The defensive numbers are where Chaves becomes especially interesting.

She absorbs 4.20 significant strikes per minute and defends 53% of incoming significant strikes.

If she can maintain that defensive efficiency against Judice’s pressure, she could force the favorite into a slower fight.

Chaves’ most recent win over Yuneisy Duben was a split decision, so she has already demonstrated that she can compete in a close three-round fight.

Who Has the Wrestling Advantage?

The wrestling matchup is relatively balanced.

Judice averages 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 25% of her attempts. Chaves averages a higher 37% takedown accuracy.

Judice has the better takedown defense at 80%, compared with 62% for Chaves.

That means Judice has the stronger defensive wrestling profile, while Chaves has been more efficient when attempting her own takedowns.

Judice also has the slight submission-volume advantage, attempting 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes compared with 0.5 for Chaves.

Neither fighter has an overwhelming grappling advantage, making the striking battle particularly important.

What Happened in Carli Judice’s Last Fight?

Judice’s most recent fight was against Juliana Miller, and she won by unanimous decision.

Miller landed 46 of 138 total strikes, while Judice landed 104 of 214.

In significant strikes, Miller connected on 36 of 122 attempts for 29% accuracy.

Judice landed 79 of 185 significant strikes for 42% accuracy.

Judice also landed 53 of 143 significant strikes aimed at the head.

The performance highlighted her ability to generate significantly more offense than her opponent over three rounds.

What Happened in Jeisla Chaves’ Last Fight?

Chaves last fought Yuneisy Duben and earned a split-decision victory.

Chaves landed 64 of 99 significant strikes for 64% accuracy.

She connected on 35 of 66 significant strikes aimed at the head.

Duben landed 62 of 112 significant strikes.

Chaves also landed 92 of 136 total strikes.

The result was competitive, but Chaves’ efficiency allowed her to remain effective despite facing substantial offensive output.

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Tale of the Tape

Statistic | Carli Judice | Jeisla Chaves
Record | 6-2-0 | 8-0-0
Age | 27 | 29
Height | 5’7″ | 5’6″
Weight | 115 lbs | 115 lbs
Reach | 68″ | 68″
Significant Strikes/Min. | 9.32 | 4.97
Significant Strike Accuracy | 50% | 56%
Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 6.62 | 4.20
Significant Strike Defense | 57% | 53%
Takedowns/15 Min. | 0.52 | —
Takedown Accuracy | 25% | 37%
Takedown Defense | 80% | 62%
Submission Attempts | 0.6/15 Min. | 0.5/3 Rounds
Opening Moneyline | -525 | +400

What Is the Best Bet for Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves?

The recommended betting pick is Carli Judice at -525.

The biggest argument against the favorite is the price.

A -525 moneyline requires Judice to win frequently enough to justify a very expensive wager. Chaves is undefeated and has better significant-strike accuracy and a lower rate of significant strikes absorbed.

Still, Judice’s offensive volume is difficult to overlook.

She lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute, compared with 4.97 for Chaves. That nearly two-to-one difference gives Judice a clear path to winning rounds if she can sustain her pace.

Her 80% takedown defense also gives her a strong fallback if Chaves attempts to wrestle.

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Prediction

Prediction: Carli Judice wins at UFC Sacramento.

Chaves’ undefeated record makes this more competitive than the 8-0 versus 6-2 records might initially suggest.

However, Judice’s combination of striking volume, defensive wrestling and submission threat makes her the preferred side.

The most important number is 9.32 significant strikes per minute.

Judice produces almost twice the significant-strike volume of Chaves, and she also defends 57% of significant strikes thrown her way.

Chaves has the better accuracy and absorbs fewer significant strikes, so she could make this a difficult fight for the favorite if she keeps the contest technical.

But if Judice can impose a high pace, her activity should give her enough opportunities to control the scorecards.

Pick: Carli Judice (-525)

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves Betting Prediction: Final Verdict

The Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves betting prediction favors Judice as the winner.

Judice has the decisive volume advantage, landing 9.32 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.97 for Chaves. She also owns an 80% takedown-defense rate and a 57% significant-strike defense rate.

Chaves remains dangerous because she is undefeated, connects on 56% of her significant strikes and absorbs only 4.20 significant strikes per minute.

Those numbers make Chaves a credible underdog, but the matchup still favors Judice’s pace and overall offensive output.

The biggest consideration is the -525 price. Judice is the recommended winner, but bettors should recognize that the heavy moneyline leaves considerably less room for error than a standard favorite price.

Official Pick: Carli Judice (-525)

Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves?

Carli Judice is the heavy favorite at -525, while Jeisla Chaves is listed at +400.

What is the best bet for Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves?

The recommended pick is Carli Judice at -525.

Who has the striking advantage?

Judice has the major volume advantage, landing 9.32 significant strikes per minute compared with 4.97 for Chaves.

Who is more accurate with significant strikes?

Jeisla Chaves has the higher significant-strike accuracy at 56%, compared with 50% for Judice.

Who has better significant-strike defense?

Carli Judice defends 57% of significant strikes, compared with 53% for Chaves.

Who absorbs fewer significant strikes?

Chaves absorbs 4.20 significant strikes per minute, while Judice absorbs 6.62.

Who has the better takedown defense?

Carli Judice has the advantage, stopping 80% of takedown attempts compared with 62% for Chaves.

When is Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves?

The fight is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento.

Where is Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves taking place?

The bout is scheduled for Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

FAQ

Who will win Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves?

Carli Judice is the recommended winner and betting pick.

Should you bet Carli Judice at -525?

Judice is the recommended side, although -525 is a heavily juiced price and leaves limited value compared with a smaller favorite.

What are the odds for Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves?

The opening odds list Carli Judice at -525 and Jeisla Chaves at +400.

What is Carli Judice’s record?

Carli Judice enters the fight with a 6-2-0 record.

What is Jeisla Chaves’ record?

Jeisla Chaves enters undefeated at 8-0-0.

Who lands more significant strikes per minute?

Carli Judice lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute, compared with 4.97 for Jeisla Chaves.

Who has the better takedown defense?

Carli Judice has an 80% takedown-defense rate, compared with 62% for Chaves.

What is the official betting pick?

Carli Judice (-525).