Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Prediction: Who Is the Best Bet at UFC Sacramento?

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Prediction: Who has the edge at UFC Sacramento, and is Padilla the best bet at -102?

The Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast betting prediction favors Chris Padilla at -102. This is a closely priced UFC Sacramento matchup, but Padilla has the better combination of significant-strike accuracy, takedown production and takedown defense. Haqparast has the stronger significant-strike defense and a slightly higher offensive striking rate, but he is coming off a first-round loss to Quillan Salkilld.

Pick: Take Chris Padilla (-102)

Padilla enters the fight with a 17-6-1 record and averages 6.19 significant strikes per minute while landing 54% of his attempts. Haqparast is landing 6.36 significant strikes per minute but connects on just 45%. Padilla also owns an 80% takedown defense and averages 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Prediction

Chris Padilla and Nasrat Haqparast meet at UFC Sacramento on Saturday, August 22, 2026, at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. The matchup is priced close to a pick’em, with Padilla opening at -102 and Haqparast at -118.

The tight betting line reflects a competitive matchup between two experienced lightweights.

Padilla is 17-6-1 entering the fight, while Haqparast owns an 18-6 record. Both fighters are 30 years old and compete at 155 pounds.

Padilla stands 5-foot-9 with a 74-inch reach. Haqparast is one inch taller at 5-foot-10 but has a shorter 72-inch reach.

The numbers suggest that neither fighter has an overwhelming physical advantage. The matchup instead comes down to efficiency, defense and which fighter can impose his preferred style.

Why Is Chris Padilla the Pick?

Padilla has several statistical advantages that make him appealing at nearly even money.

His most significant edge is striking efficiency.

Padilla lands 6.19 significant strikes per minute and connects on 54% of his attempts. Haqparast lands slightly more at 6.36 per minute, but his accuracy is only 45%.

That means Padilla is producing nearly the same volume while landing a considerably higher percentage of his attempts.

Padilla also has the better takedown offense and defense. He averages 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, lands 28% of his attempts and stops 80% of takedowns attempted against him.

Haqparast lands 20% of his takedown attempts and stuffs 86%.

Haqparast therefore has the better takedown defense, but Padilla’s 80% defense is still strong enough to make it difficult for his opponent to establish a wrestling-heavy game.

Can Nasrat Haqparast Win?

Absolutely. At -118, Haqparast is only a slight favorite in the opening market, and his statistical profile provides a legitimate path to victory.

His biggest advantage is defensive striking.

Haqparast absorbs 6.00 significant strikes per minute, compared with 4.88 for Padilla, but he defends 63% of his opponents’ significant strikes. Padilla’s significant-strike defense sits at 49%.

That 14-percentage-point difference is substantial.

Haqparast also has a slight advantage in offensive volume, landing 6.36 significant strikes per minute compared with Padilla’s 6.19.

If Haqparast can maintain distance, use his southpaw stance effectively and force Padilla to fight at his preferred range, his higher defensive numbers could become decisive.

The concern is efficiency. Landing only 45% of significant strikes leaves him vulnerable to a more accurate opponent.

Padilla’s Striking Numbers

Padilla has a strong offensive profile heading into UFC Sacramento.

He averages 6.19 significant strikes per minute and lands 54% of his attempts.

That combination gives him both volume and efficiency.

He also absorbs 4.88 significant strikes per minute. While his 49% significant-strike defense is below Haqparast’s 63%, Padilla’s lower absorption rate indicates that he has historically taken less significant damage per minute.

Padilla’s 74-inch reach is also two inches longer than Haqparast’s despite being one inch shorter.

That could help him manage distance and create opportunities for his straight punches and combinations.

Haqparast’s Striking Numbers

Haqparast averages 6.36 significant strikes per minute, giving him a slight volume advantage.

His 45% significant-strike accuracy is the weaker part of his offensive profile.

Defensively, however, Haqparast is much more efficient. He defends 63% of significant strikes thrown at him.

That creates an interesting contrast.

Padilla is the more accurate offensive striker, while Haqparast is the more effective defensive striker.

The fighter who controls the range could therefore have a major advantage.

Who Has the Better Wrestling Advantage?

Padilla has the more productive offensive wrestling profile.

He averages 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and completes 28% of his attempts. Haqparast averages 20% takedown accuracy.

Padilla also stops 80% of takedowns attempted against him.

Haqparast has the superior takedown defense at 86%, so Padilla should not expect easy takedowns.

Still, the ability to threaten takedowns can have value even when attempts do not result in takedowns. Padilla can use wrestling pressure to make Haqparast think about level changes while creating openings for his striking.

Haqparast averages 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, compared with 0.3 submissions per three rounds for Padilla.

That gives Haqparast a slight edge in submission activity, although neither fighter is primarily known for submission volume based on the supplied statistics.

What Happened in Chris Padilla’s Last Fight?

Padilla’s most recent fight against MarQuel Mederos ended in a majority-decision draw.

Mederos landed 117 of 186 total strikes, while Padilla landed 164 of 291.

In significant strikes, Mederos connected on 112 of 180 attempts for 62% accuracy. Padilla landed 147 of 271 significant strikes, connecting on 54%.

Padilla landed 71 of 164 significant strikes aimed at the head.

The fight demonstrated Padilla’s ability to maintain a high striking volume. He landed 164 total strikes and 147 significant strikes, showing that he can stay active over the course of a fight.

However, the draw also demonstrates that Padilla can be pushed into competitive fights when his opponent maintains a high level of offensive output.

What Happened in Nasrat Haqparast’s Last Fight?

Haqparast’s last fight ended in a first-round loss to Quillan Salkilld by head kick.

Haqparast landed 10 of 13 significant strikes, connecting on 76% of his attempts. He also landed seven of 10 significant strikes aimed at the head.

Salkilld, however, connected on 14 of 36 significant strikes and finished the fight with the head kick.

The result is important because it demonstrates the volatility of this matchup. Haqparast can be highly accurate, but one significant opening can change the fight immediately.

Padilla will likely need to avoid giving Haqparast similar opportunities while maintaining his own offensive pressure.

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Tale of the Tape

Statistic | Chris Padilla | Nasrat Haqparast
Record | 17-6-1 | 18-6-0
Age | 30 | 30
Height | 5’9″ | 5’10”
Reach | 74″ | 72″
Significant Strikes/Min. | 6.19 | 6.36
Significant Strike Accuracy | 54% | 45%
Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 4.88 | 6.00
Significant Strike Defense | 49% | 63%
Takedowns/15 Min. | 1.13 | —
Takedown Accuracy | 28% | 20%
Takedown Defense | 80% | 86%
Submission Attempts | 0.3/3 Rounds | 0.6/15 Min.
Opening Moneyline | -102 | -118

What Is the Best Bet for Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast?

The best bet based on the supplied statistics is Chris Padilla at -102.

The price is particularly attractive because Padilla is essentially being offered as a pick’em despite having several statistical advantages.

He lands significant strikes at a much higher accuracy rate, averages more takedowns and has strong takedown defense. His 4.88 significant strikes absorbed per minute are also notably lower than Haqparast’s 6.00.

The biggest concern with Padilla is his 49% significant-strike defense.

Haqparast defends 63% of significant strikes, meaning Padilla cannot afford to simply stand at range and throw without adjusting his approach.

A mixed attack featuring striking combinations, takedown attempts and pressure could give Padilla the best chance of winning rounds.

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Prediction

Prediction: Chris Padilla wins.

This should be a competitive lightweight fight, but Padilla’s efficiency gives him the edge.

Haqparast has the higher significant-strike volume and substantially better significant-strike defense. However, Padilla lands at a 54% rate compared with Haqparast’s 45%, has the longer reach and offers more offensive wrestling.

Padilla’s ability to combine his striking with takedown threats could prevent Haqparast from comfortably establishing his preferred rhythm.

The close moneyline makes Padilla the more appealing side.

Pick: Chris Padilla (-102)

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Prediction: Final Verdict

The Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast betting prediction is a close one, but Padilla is the recommended side at -102.

Padilla has the stronger offensive efficiency, landing 54% of his significant strikes compared with 45% for Haqparast. He also averages 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 80% of takedown attempts.

Haqparast remains a dangerous opponent because of his 63% significant-strike defense and 6.36 significant strikes landed per minute.

Still, the combination of Padilla’s accuracy, reach and wrestling makes him the preferred bet at essentially even money.

Official Pick: Chris Padilla (-102)

Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast?

Nasrat Haqparast is the slight opening favorite at -118, while Chris Padilla is listed at -102.

What is the best bet for Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast?

The recommended bet is Chris Padilla at -102.

Who has better striking accuracy?

Chris Padilla has the better significant-strike accuracy at 54%, compared with 45% for Nasrat Haqparast.

Who lands more significant strikes per minute?

Nasrat Haqparast has the slight volume advantage, landing 6.36 significant strikes per minute compared with 6.19 for Padilla.

Who has better takedown defense?

Nasrat Haqparast has the better listed takedown defense at 86%, while Padilla stops 80% of takedown attempts.

When is Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast?

The fight is scheduled for Saturday, August 22, 2026, at UFC Sacramento.

Where is Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast taking place?

The fight is scheduled for Golden 1 Center in Sacramento.

FAQ

Who will win Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast?

Chris Padilla is the recommended winner based on the supplied statistics and betting line.

Should you bet Chris Padilla at -102?

Padilla at -102 is the recommended wager because he offers a favorable combination of striking accuracy, wrestling production and defensive metrics at close to even money.

What are the odds for Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast?

The opening odds have Chris Padilla at -102 and Nasrat Haqparast at -118.

What is Chris Padilla’s record?

Chris Padilla enters the fight with a 17-6-1 professional record.

What is Nasrat Haqparast’s record?

Nasrat Haqparast enters UFC Sacramento with an 18-6 professional record.

Who has the longer reach?

Chris Padilla has a 74-inch reach, two inches longer than Nasrat Haqparast’s 72-inch reach.

Who has the better wrestling numbers?

Padilla has the stronger offensive wrestling profile, averaging 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and stopping 80% of takedown attempts.

Who has the better significant-strike defense?

Nasrat Haqparast has the better significant-strike defense at 63%, compared with 49% for Padilla.

What is the official betting pick?

Chris Padilla (-102).