Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Can Tampa Bay’s Starters Push This Game Under 37.5?

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Can Tampa Bay’s starters and Kansas City’s backup-heavy offense keep Saturday’s game Under 37.5?

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Direct Answer

The Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction points toward a low-scoring game at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday night. Tampa Bay is a 5.5-point favorite, but laying that many points in a preseason matchup is difficult because playing time, quarterback rotations and fourth-quarter personnel can dramatically change the outcome. The better betting opportunity is the total.

Pick: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Under 37.5

Kansas City lost its preseason opener 20-12 against the Los Angeles Rams, while Tampa Bay defeated the New York Jets 24-16. Neither game reached 37.5 points, and the circumstances surrounding Saturday’s matchup create another strong argument for limited scoring. The Buccaneers are expected to play their starters, including Baker Mayfield, but their exact workload remains uncertain. Kansas City will once again be without Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid’s historical approach to preseason football makes it difficult to project a major offensive explosion from the Chiefs.

The strongest Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction is therefore the Under 37.5.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction and Betting Odds

The Week 2 preseason matchup features Kansas City and Tampa Bay in a game where the betting market has installed the Buccaneers as significant home favorites.

Betting Market | Chiefs | Buccaneers
Point Spread | +5.5 | -5.5
Moneyline | Underdog | Favorite
Total | Under 37.5 | Over 37.5
Venue | Raymond James Stadium | Tampa, Florida
Game | Week 2 Preseason | Week 2 Preseason

The spread immediately presents an important question: Should you bet the Chiefs or Buccaneers against the spread?

There is certainly a case for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers played well in their preseason opener, defeating the Jets 24-16 despite not using their starters. Tampa Bay’s depth showed enough to produce 24 points while the defense limited New York’s offense to 16.

Now the Buccaneers are expected to put some of their starters on the field.

That changes the personnel equation, but it does not necessarily make Buccaneers -5.5 the best bet.

Preseason football is particularly vulnerable to late-game volatility. A team can lead by six points after three quarters and still fail to cover because the opposing third-string quarterback produces a late touchdown. Conversely, a favorite can dominate early before backups allow the opponent back into the game.

That is why the total is more attractive.

The Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction focuses on whether both offenses can collectively reach 38 points. Based on what we know about the quarterback situations, coaching approaches and expected personnel usage, that is a high enough threshold to prefer the Under.

Why Bet the Under 37.5?

The primary reason to back the Under is the combination of Kansas City’s quarterback situation and Tampa Bay’s uncertain offensive workload.

Patrick Mahomes is not playing.

That immediately removes one of the league’s most explosive quarterbacks from the equation. Kansas City scored only 12 points against the Rams in its preseason opener, and the Chiefs will again rely on their reserve quarterbacks to handle most of the game.

Andy Reid has also not demonstrated a strong commitment to winning preseason games. The Chiefs have gone 0-3 across their last two preseasons, reinforcing the idea that Reid’s priority in August is evaluation rather than maximizing the scoreboard.

That matters for totals.

A coach who is primarily evaluating players is less likely to keep his best offensive personnel on the field merely to chase points. Once Kansas City gets enough information from its quarterbacks and skill-position players, the coaching staff can turn the game over to deeper reserves.

The same principle applies to Tampa Bay, even though the Buccaneers are expected to play their starters.

Head coach Todd Bowles has confirmed that Tampa Bay’s starters will play against Kansas City. However, he has not committed to a specific workload. The starters could play only a drive or two, or they could remain on the field through the first half.

That uncertainty makes it difficult to project a huge offensive output from Tampa Bay.

If Baker Mayfield and the first-team offense play only a couple of drives, the majority of the game will still be decided by backup units. If they play longer, the Under still has a path because Tampa Bay’s offensive production would need to remain efficient throughout the rest of the game to push the total above 37.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

The Buccaneers enter Week 2 after an encouraging 24-16 victory over the New York Jets.

The most interesting part of that victory was that Tampa Bay did not use its starters.

Instead, the Buccaneers relied on their backup-heavy roster and still managed to score 24 points. That performance demonstrated that Tampa Bay has legitimate depth, particularly among the players competing for roster spots.

The victory also gave Tampa Bay’s coaching staff an opportunity to evaluate players in realistic game conditions.

That evaluation continues against Kansas City.

Todd Bowles has now confirmed that his starters will participate. Baker Mayfield is the most notable name because he did not play in any preseason games last year despite initially being expected to appear against Pittsburgh.

Mayfield’s potential appearance creates an interesting wrinkle for the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction.

On one hand, having Mayfield available should make Tampa Bay’s offense more efficient. On the other hand, his presence may not last long enough to dramatically change the total.

If Mayfield plays one or two series, Tampa Bay could score a touchdown or two before turning the offense over to the backups. That is not necessarily enough to push the game toward 40 points.

The absence of a joint practice also matters.

Tampa Bay had a joint practice situation last preseason before the team ultimately kept Mayfield out of its preseason game. This year, there is no joint practice before the Kansas City matchup.

That gives Bowles more flexibility to use his starters.

Baker Mayfield’s Potential Impact

Baker Mayfield is easily the biggest personnel factor for Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers did not need him in their preseason opener, but this week could provide his first preseason action.

Mayfield’s experience gives Tampa Bay a clear advantage over the Chiefs’ reserve quarterback situation. However, preseason betting is not simply about identifying the team with the better quarterback.

It is about determining how long that quarterback will play.

If Mayfield plays two drives, his presence matters much less than it would in a regular-season game.

The same principle applies to the rest of Tampa Bay’s starters.

The Buccaneers could open the game with their best offensive personnel, move the ball effectively and potentially score. But eventually, those players are coming off the field.

Once that happens, the game becomes another battle between backups.

That is precisely why the Under remains attractive at 37.5.

Tampa Bay’s Defensive Motivation

There is another reason the Buccaneers can control this game without necessarily pushing the total Over.

Tampa Bay’s defensive line has additional motivation heading into the matchup.

The Buccaneers’ defensive front should be one of the areas to watch, particularly with questions surrounding Vita Vea and his future with the team. If regular-season playing time becomes available, defensive linemen have every incentive to make a strong impression during preseason action.

That could create pressure on Kansas City’s backup quarterbacks.

Kansas City scored only 12 points against the Rams in Week 1. Without Mahomes, the Chiefs’ offense does not have the same ability to consistently overcome pressure or manufacture explosive plays.

If Tampa Bay’s defensive front controls the line of scrimmage, the Chiefs could have trouble sustaining drives.

That would be a major boost for the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction on the Under.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

Kansas City enters the matchup after losing 20-12 to the Rams in its preseason opener.

The Chiefs did not score enough offensively to threaten the total, and Patrick Mahomes was not involved.

That situation continues this week.

Andy Reid is one of the most successful coaches in modern NFL history, but preseason results have not been a major priority under his tenure. Kansas City has gone 0-3 over its last two preseasons, and there is little reason to believe Reid suddenly views the second preseason game as a must-win contest.

His priority is evaluating the roster.

That means Kansas City’s offense could become increasingly conservative as the game progresses.

Backup quarterbacks need to demonstrate command of the offense, but coaches also want to avoid unnecessary turnovers and injuries. That can result in longer drives that stall around midfield rather than aggressive fourth-down decisions or high-risk throws designed to maximize scoring.

Those tendencies are favorable for an Under bet.

The Chiefs’ Quarterback Situation

The biggest problem for an Over wager is Kansas City’s quarterback situation without Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in football at extending plays, creating explosive throws and converting difficult third downs.

None of that can simply be assumed from a backup-heavy preseason offense.

Kansas City’s quarterbacks will be evaluated on fundamentals, decision-making and consistency. The Chiefs do not need to score 30 points to accomplish those objectives.

In fact, a 17-14 or 20-13 game could provide the coaching staff with exactly the type of evaluation it wants.

That is another reason the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction favors the Under.

The Over requires the game to produce at least 38 points.

There are multiple paths to a low-scoring result, including:

Kansas City’s backup offense struggling to sustain drives.

Tampa Bay starters playing only a limited number of possessions.

Defensive pressure creating sacks and negative plays.

Turnovers occurring without immediate points.

Both coaching staffs becoming more conservative as the game progresses.

Fourth-quarter scoring slowing once the deepest reserves enter.

The Under does not need either offense to completely collapse. It simply needs the game to remain below a relatively modest preseason scoring threshold.

Andy Reid’s Preseason Approach

Andy Reid’s preseason philosophy is one of the most important pieces of this handicap.

The Chiefs have gone 0-3 across their last two preseasons. While preseason straight-up records are not necessarily predictive of regular-season success, they provide context for how Reid approaches August games.

Kansas City has little incentive to prioritize winning at all costs.

The Chiefs are evaluating depth, offensive line combinations, young receivers, backup quarterbacks and players fighting for roster positions.

That means the coaching staff is not necessarily going to deploy the same aggressive offensive strategy that fans associate with the regular season.

There is also no reason to risk Mahomes.

With the regular season approaching, Kansas City’s priority is keeping its most important players healthy.

That is why the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction should not be based simply on Tampa Bay’s stronger apparent quarterback situation.

Instead, the question is how many points both teams are likely to generate across four quarters of preseason rotations.

The answer appears to be fewer than 38.

Buccaneers Starters Change the Handicap — But Not Enough

The most significant argument against the Under is obvious.

Tampa Bay is playing starters.

The Buccaneers did not use their starters against the Jets, yet still scored 24 points. If Baker Mayfield and the first-team offense now take the field, Tampa Bay could score more efficiently.

That is a legitimate concern.

However, the total has already incorporated the expectation that Tampa Bay’s starters will play.

The key is that their workload remains uncertain.

Todd Bowles could use Mayfield for a couple of series. He could play the starters through the first half. Or the plan could change based on how the week of practice develops.

A bettor taking the Over needs meaningful offensive production from Tampa Bay while also getting enough scoring from Kansas City.

That is a much more difficult proposition.

If Tampa Bay wins 23-10, the Under cashes comfortably.

If Tampa Bay wins 24-13, the Under cashes comfortably.

Even a 24-14 Buccaneers victory leaves the game below 37.5.

Those are realistic preseason scorelines.

No Joint Practice Could Increase Tampa Bay’s Starter Workload

The lack of a joint practice is one of the more interesting situational details.

Joint practices can provide starters with competitive repetitions against another team’s personnel without requiring them to play extensive preseason snaps.

Last year, Tampa Bay had a joint practice before its preseason matchup with Pittsburgh, and Baker Mayfield ultimately remained on the sideline.

This time there is no joint practice before facing Kansas City.

That could make Bowles more comfortable allowing his starters to participate.

It does not necessarily mean they will play a full half.

Instead, Tampa Bay can use the game as a controlled evaluation.

Mayfield gets live reps. The offensive line gets communication work. Receivers get timing with the starting quarterback. The defense gets to operate against another team’s offense.

Once those objectives are accomplished, the starters can leave.

That is an important distinction when evaluating the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction.

Rueben Bain Jr. Makes His Preseason Debut

Another player to watch for Tampa Bay is rookie defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr.

Bain did not play against the Jets despite being one of Tampa Bay’s notable young defensive players. Bowles was satisfied with what Bain showed during joint-practice work, which contributed to the decision to keep him out of the opener.

Now Bain could make his preseason debut against Kansas City.

His presence adds another young defensive player with something to prove.

Preseason games are often dominated by players competing for roster positions. Defensive linemen can create immediate impact through pressure, sacks and tackles for loss, making them particularly important in low-scoring handicaps.

If Tampa Bay’s defensive front can create pressure against Kansas City’s backup quarterbacks, the Chiefs could struggle to maintain scoring drives.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Key Betting Factors

Several factors stand out when breaking down this matchup.

1. Kansas City is without Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs’ offense is fundamentally different without Mahomes. Kansas City’s backup quarterbacks will handle most of the game, reducing the likelihood of sustained explosive offense.

2. Tampa Bay is expected to use starters

This is the strongest argument against the Under, but the exact workload remains unclear. Mayfield could play only a series or two.

3. Tampa Bay scored 24 points without its starters

That makes the Buccaneers dangerous offensively, but it also shows that their Week 1 depth can score without the first team. The question is whether that production translates into another 24-plus-point performance.

4. Kansas City scored only 12 points in Week 1

The Chiefs’ offensive output against the Rams provides a useful baseline for the current situation.

5. Andy Reid has not prioritized preseason wins

Kansas City’s 0-3 record across its last two preseasons reinforces the idea that winning is not the primary objective.

6. Tampa Bay’s defense has depth

The Buccaneers’ defensive performance against New York helped produce a 24-16 win and demonstrated that the second unit can compete.

7. The total is only 37.5

A total of 37.5 is not extremely high, but preseason scoring can be inconsistent. The Under has multiple paths to victory.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Prediction: Side or Total?

The spread is tempting because Tampa Bay is only laying 5.5 points at home.

But I would rather avoid it.

The Buccaneers have a clear argument to win the game. They are at home, they have demonstrated good depth, their starters are expected to play and Kansas City is without Mahomes.

However, covering 5.5 points is different from winning.

Imagine Tampa Bay takes a 17-7 lead into the fourth quarter. Kansas City’s third-string offense scores a late touchdown against Tampa Bay’s deepest reserves, and suddenly the Buccaneers win 17-14.

Tampa Bay wins the game but fails to cover.

That is a common preseason outcome.

The total provides a cleaner handicap because the uncertain personnel rotations can actually help the Under. As starters leave, offensive continuity decreases and defensive mistakes do not necessarily translate into points.

For that reason, the Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction is more confidently aligned with the total than the spread.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Prediction: What Is the Best Bet?

The best bet is:

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Under 37.5

Kansas City’s lack of Patrick Mahomes is significant, while Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback workload remains uncertain. Even though the Buccaneers are expected to put their starters on the field, they could play only a limited number of drives.

The first preseason meeting between these teams is therefore likely to become another evaluation-heavy game once the opening possessions are completed.

The Buccaneers have a strong chance to win, but I do not believe that means the game needs to become high scoring.

A score around 20-14 or 21-13 would fit the available information.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Projected Game Script

The opening quarter should be the most interesting portion of the matchup.

Tampa Bay could have Baker Mayfield under center, giving the Buccaneers their strongest offensive personnel of the preseason. Kansas City will likely counter with its reserve quarterback group.

That creates a potential early advantage for Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers could move the ball efficiently and potentially take an early lead.

Once the starters begin leaving, however, the game should become much more conservative.

Kansas City’s offense could struggle to consistently generate explosive plays, while Tampa Bay’s defense should have opportunities to pressure the Chiefs’ reserve quarterbacks.

By the third quarter, both teams could be operating with players who are fighting for roster spots.

That generally creates more volatility but not necessarily more points.

A turnover could create a short field and produce a touchdown, but there is also a strong possibility of stalled drives, punts and field-goal attempts.

The fourth quarter is especially difficult to predict, which is precisely why laying 5.5 points is less appealing.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Who Wins?

Tampa Bay is the more likely team to win straight up.

The Buccaneers have home-field advantage, they are using some starters and they looked good in their preseason opener.

Kansas City, meanwhile, lost its first preseason game and will again be without Mahomes.

But the expected winner does not have to be the best bet.

My projected score is:

Buccaneers 20, Chiefs 14

That produces 34 total points, comfortably below 37.5.

It also demonstrates why the Under is preferable to the spread.

Tampa Bay can win the game without covering 5.5, while the Under can cash regardless of which team wins as long as the scoring stays below the number.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction: Final Pick

The Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction comes down to Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation, Kansas City’s lack of Patrick Mahomes and the coaching philosophies surrounding preseason football.

The Buccaneers are expected to play their starters for the first time this preseason. Baker Mayfield could receive live-game reps after sitting out last year’s preseason, and rookie Rueben Bain Jr. could also make his preseason debut. Tampa Bay’s 24-16 win over the Jets demonstrated that its depth is capable of producing even without the starters.

Kansas City presents a different situation.

The Chiefs lost 20-12 to the Rams in Week 1 and will again be without Mahomes. Andy Reid’s recent preseason record also provides little reason to expect Kansas City to prioritize an aggressive, high-scoring approach.

That makes Chiefs vs Buccaneers Under 37.5 the preferred wager.

The Buccaneers may win. They may even control much of the game. But asking the matchup to reach 38 points requires sustained scoring across multiple quarterback rotations.

That is not the profile I want to bet on in this situation.

Final Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Chiefs 14

Best Bet: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Under 37.5

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction FAQ

Who is favored in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers preseason game?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by 5.5 points over the Kansas City Chiefs in the Week 2 preseason matchup.

What is the Chiefs vs Buccaneers preseason over/under?

The total is 37.5 points. The recommended Chiefs vs Buccaneers Preseason NFL Prediction is to bet the Under 37.5.

Who should I bet in Chiefs vs Buccaneers?

Tampa Bay has the stronger case to win outright, but the preferred wager is the Under 37.5 rather than Buccaneers -5.5.

Will Baker Mayfield play against the Chiefs?

Yes. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has confirmed that Tampa Bay’s starters will play. However, the exact number of snaps Baker Mayfield and the other starters will receive remains uncertain.

Will Patrick Mahomes play in the preseason game?

No. Mahomes is not expected to play, leaving Kansas City to rely on its backup quarterbacks.

Why is the Under 37.5 the best Chiefs vs Buccaneers bet?

The Under is attractive because Kansas City will be without Mahomes, Tampa Bay’s starters could have a limited workload, and both teams are expected to use extensive backup rotations. Kansas City also scored only 12 points in its preseason opener.

Did the Buccaneers play their starters in Week 1?

No. Tampa Bay defeated the New York Jets 24-16 while playing backups throughout the game.

Why are the Buccaneers favored by 5.5 points?

Tampa Bay has home-field advantage, looked strong in its preseason opener and is expected to use its starters against Kansas City. The Chiefs will be without Mahomes, which contributes significantly to the spread.

Is Chiefs vs Buccaneers Over 37.5 a good bet?

The Over has a path if Tampa Bay’s starters produce multiple scoring drives and Kansas City’s backups contribute enough offense. However, the uncertainty surrounding playing time makes the Under 37.5 the preferred wager.

What is the final Chiefs vs Buccaneers preseason prediction?

Buccaneers 20, Chiefs 14.

Pick: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Under 37.5.