Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Can Arizona Defeat Cincinnati at Chase Field?

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction for August 23, 2026, featuring the odds, pitching matchup, team stats, betting analysis, and best MLB pick.

The Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction favors the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) over the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Sunday, August 23, 2026, at Chase Field. Arizona enters the matchup with a 67-61 record, while Cincinnati is 61-67. The Diamondbacks have also produced more runs, have a better team batting average, own a lower team ERA and WHIP, and have played significantly better defense.

Cincinnati does have an important advantage on the mound with Andrew Abbott, who owns a 3.59 career ERA and 3.53 FIP. Arizona will counter with Mitch Bratt, whose MLB experience is much more limited. However, when evaluating the complete rosters rather than only the starting pitchers, Arizona has the stronger statistical profile.

Pick: Take Arizona (-145).

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction Summary

The Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction comes down to whether Cincinnati’s starting-pitching advantage with Abbott can overcome Arizona’s advantages in offense, bullpen performance, defense and overall pitching.

The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.52 runs per game compared with 4.10 for the Reds. Arizona also owns a .243 team batting average and .316 OBP, while Cincinnati is batting .226 with a .305 OBP. That gives Arizona a meaningful edge in getting runners on base and generating offense.

On the pitching side, Arizona has a 4.18 team ERA and 1.289 WHIP. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Reds have also surrendered 159 home runs and 612 total runs, compared with 149 homers and 575 runs allowed by Arizona.

The Diamondbacks have the better bullpen save rate at 67.4%, compared with 62.3% for Cincinnati. They are also substantially better defensively, with a .989 fielding percentage that ranks second in MLB.

Those factors make Arizona the preferred moneyline side despite Abbott being the more proven starting pitcher.

Table of Contents

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Game Overview

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Why Arizona Is Favored

Cincinnati Reds Offensive Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks Offensive Analysis

Starting Pitcher Breakdown

Cincinnati Pitching Analysis

Arizona Pitching Analysis

Bullpen Comparison

Defensive Comparison

Home-Field Advantage at Chase Field

Moneyline Analysis

Key Stats to Watch

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Biggest Advantages

Potential Risks to the Pick

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Best Bet

Follow-Up Questions

FAQ

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Game Overview

The Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction features two teams separated by six games in the standings. Cincinnati enters Sunday at 61-67, while Arizona sits at 67-61. The matchup will take place at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

The current moneyline lists Cincinnati at +125 and Arizona at -145. The game total is 9 runs.

Andrew Abbott is expected to start for Cincinnati, while Mitch Bratt is scheduled to take the mound for Arizona.

The odds indicate that Arizona is considered the more likely winner, and the underlying statistics provide several reasons for that market position. The Diamondbacks have been more productive offensively, have a better overall pitching staff and possess one of the strongest defensive profiles in the matchup.

Cincinnati cannot be dismissed, particularly because Abbott has demonstrated substantially better career numbers than Bratt. Abbott has accumulated 491 strikeouts over 552 MLB innings and owns a 3.59 ERA. His 3.53 FIP also indicates that his performance has been supported by solid underlying numbers.

Bratt, by comparison, has only pitched 36 MLB innings. He owns a 4.23 ERA, 4.20 FIP and 1.492 WHIP. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just 1.14.

That creates one of the most interesting elements of this matchup: Cincinnati has the better established starting pitcher, but Arizona has the stronger team surrounding its starter.

Cincinnati Reds Offensive Analysis

The Reds have struggled to generate consistent offense throughout the season. Cincinnati is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which ranks 25th in MLB.

The team’s .226 batting average is another major concern. Cincinnati has recorded 958 hits, 182 doubles and 165 home runs. The Reds have driven in 499 runs while posting a .305 OBP and .390 slugging percentage.

There are some positive components to the offense. Cincinnati has drawn 458 walks, giving the team opportunities to create traffic on the bases despite its low batting average. The Reds have also hit 165 home runs, meaning their offense can generate quick scoring bursts.

However, their overall production remains below Arizona’s.

Cincinnati has struck out 1,220 times, while Arizona has struck out only 936 times. That is a difference of 284 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks have been considerably better at avoiding strikeouts, which can help them sustain innings and create additional scoring opportunities.

The Reds’ .390 slugging percentage is also lower than Arizona’s .398 mark. While the difference is not enormous, it reinforces the larger point that Arizona has been slightly more productive across multiple offensive categories.

For Cincinnati to win as a +125 underdog, the offense likely needs to outperform its season-long averages. Abbott could keep Arizona’s lineup in check early, but the Reds need to capitalize when opportunities arise.

Arizona Diamondbacks Offensive Analysis

Arizona has the more efficient offense entering this matchup.

The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.52 runs per game, ranking 14th in MLB. They have scored 579 runs and have produced 1,044 hits. Their .243 batting average is 17 points higher than Cincinnati’s .226 mark.

Arizona also owns a .316 OBP compared with Cincinnati’s .305 mark.

The Diamondbacks have hit 220 doubles, which is an especially important difference. Cincinnati has produced 182 doubles, meaning Arizona has generated 38 more two-base hits.

Arizona has also walked 431 times and struck out only 936 times. That combination is particularly useful because it indicates the Diamondbacks are doing a better job of putting the ball in play while still generating opportunities through walks.

Their 126 home runs are fewer than Cincinnati’s 165, so the Reds have the raw home-run advantage. However, Cincinnati’s overall offensive output remains lower because the Reds have struggled with batting average, on-base percentage and run production.

The Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction therefore gives Arizona the offensive edge based on consistency rather than simply power.

The Diamondbacks don’t need to rely exclusively on home runs. Their 220 doubles, .243 average and .316 OBP demonstrate an offense capable of producing runs through multiple avenues.

That is important against Abbott. A pitcher with a 3.59 career ERA can be difficult to beat if an opponent relies entirely on home runs. Arizona’s ability to create baserunners and extra-base hits gives it additional paths to scoring.

Starting Pitcher Breakdown

Andrew Abbott is the most established starting pitcher in this game.

The Cincinnati left-hander has pitched 552 innings in his MLB career and has accumulated 491 strikeouts. He has allowed 504 hits and 205 walks, resulting in a career WHIP of 1.284.

His career ERA of 3.59 is significantly better than Bratt’s 4.23 mark.

Abbott’s 3.53 FIP is also encouraging. It suggests that his underlying pitching results have been strong and that he has generally limited the factors most directly within his control.

That makes Abbott a legitimate obstacle for Arizona.

Mitch Bratt has considerably less MLB experience. He has appeared in only 36 innings, allowing 32 hits while recording 25 strikeouts. He has posted a 1.492 WHIP and 4.23 ERA.

His 4.20 FIP is close to his ERA, but the sample size is extremely small. His 1.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio is also a concern.

From a pure starting-pitcher perspective, Cincinnati has the advantage.

However, the game is not decided solely by the first five innings. The quality of the bullpens, defensive units and offenses matters over nine innings. Arizona’s broader statistical advantages help offset the starting-pitcher discrepancy.

Cincinnati Pitching Analysis

The Reds’ pitching staff has produced a 4.47 ERA, which ranks 24th in MLB.

Cincinnati has allowed 612 total runs and 566 earned runs. The staff has surrendered 1,068 hits and 159 home runs. Its 1.40 WHIP is another weakness.

The Reds have recorded 1,039 strikeouts and issued 531 walks, producing a 1.96 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

That ratio stands out when compared with Arizona’s pitching numbers.

A 1.96 K/BB ratio suggests Cincinnati has had trouble consistently dominating opposing hitters and avoiding free passes. Walks combined with hits can quickly create high-pressure innings, particularly against a team like Arizona that has produced a .316 OBP.

The Reds’ FIP of 4.65 is also higher than their 4.47 ERA. That suggests the underlying indicators do not provide a compelling reason to expect a major improvement in the staff’s overall run prevention.

Cincinnati has done a respectable job converting balls in play into outs, with a 70.2% defensive efficiency rate. But the pitching staff’s walks and hits allowed remain significant concerns.

Abbott can help mitigate those problems while he is on the mound. The question for Cincinnati is what happens once the game reaches the bullpen.

Arizona Pitching Analysis

Arizona has a better overall pitching profile.

The Diamondbacks own a 4.18 team ERA, compared with Cincinnati’s 4.47. Arizona’s 1.289 WHIP is also substantially better than Cincinnati’s 1.40.

The Diamondbacks have allowed 575 runs and 527 earned runs. They have surrendered 1,091 hits and 149 home runs.

Their FIP is 4.38, which is not elite, but it remains better than Cincinnati’s 4.65 mark.

Arizona’s pitching staff has recorded 865 strikeouts against 373 walks. Its strikeout-to-walk ratio is listed at 6.90 in the supplied statistics, although the raw strikeout and walk totals provide the more useful comparison for evaluating overall staff performance.

The biggest advantage for Arizona is that its pitching staff has been more effective at limiting overall damage. A 1.289 WHIP compared with Cincinnati’s 1.40 WHIP represents a meaningful difference in baserunners allowed.

That difference can become particularly important in a matchup with a relatively low-scoring Cincinnati offense.

If Bratt can provide a competitive start and avoid allowing a large early deficit, Arizona’s pitching depth becomes more valuable as the game progresses.

Bullpen Comparison

Bullpen performance is another reason to favor the Diamondbacks.

Cincinnati’s relievers have entered 129 save situations and converted 33 saves. The Reds have blown 20 of 53 save opportunities and have a 62.3% save rate.

Arizona has appeared in 118 save situations and has converted 31 saves. The Diamondbacks have blown only 15 opportunities and own a 67.4% save rate.

The inherited-runner numbers also favor Arizona.

Cincinnati relievers have inherited 197 runners, with 28.4% eventually scoring. Arizona relievers have inherited 165 runners, with only 24.8% scoring.

That is a meaningful difference when evaluating late-game reliability.

Both bullpens have experience in high-leverage situations. Cincinnati relievers have made 162 high-leverage appearances, while Arizona relievers have made 137.

The Reds have accumulated 73 holds, which is actually a respectable number. Arizona has recorded 71 holds. However, Cincinnati’s lower save percentage and higher inherited-runner scoring rate make the Diamondbacks the preferable bullpen side.

If this game is close after six or seven innings, Arizona’s relief corps provides an important advantage.

Defensive Comparison

Defense is one of the clearest advantages in the Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction.

Arizona has a .989 fielding percentage, which ranks second in MLB. Cincinnati’s .984 mark ranks 20th.

The Diamondbacks have committed only 48 errors, compared with 71 for the Reds.

Arizona has also turned 114 double plays, while Cincinnati has recorded 89.

The defensive-efficiency numbers favor Arizona as well. The Diamondbacks have converted 71.1% of balls in play into outs, ranking eighth in MLB. Cincinnati has converted 70.2%, ranking 13th.

Neither team is dramatically poor defensively, but Arizona has been much cleaner.

This becomes particularly relevant in a matchup where the starting pitchers have different profiles. Abbott can generate outs through pitching, but if Cincinnati allows additional baserunners through defensive mistakes, it can put unnecessary pressure on its pitching staff.

Arizona’s defensive reliability gives the Diamondbacks another way to win close games.

Home-Field Advantage at Chase Field

The game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, giving Arizona the home-field advantage.

Home field should not be treated as a standalone reason to bet a team, but it becomes more meaningful when combined with several statistical advantages.

Arizona already has the better overall record, better offense, better team ERA, better WHIP, stronger bullpen save rate and significantly better defensive statistics.

Playing at home adds another positive factor to that profile.

The Diamondbacks will also have the benefit of their normal defensive alignment and familiar surroundings. For a game that could be decided by a few key late innings, those small advantages can matter.

Cincinnati’s best path is likely to be an early lead behind Abbott and then hold on with its bullpen. Arizona’s path is more flexible: the Diamondbacks can win through offensive production, pressure on the Cincinnati pitching staff or a late-game advantage.

Moneyline Analysis

The moneyline is Cincinnati +125 and Arizona -145.

At -145, Arizona is being priced as the clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one. The market is appropriately recognizing Cincinnati’s ability to compete, particularly because Abbott gives the Reds a credible starting pitcher.

A bettor taking Arizona at -145 is paying for the Diamondbacks’ overall statistical advantages.

The question is whether those advantages are sufficient to justify laying the price.

The answer is yes based on the supplied matchup data.

Arizona’s 67-61 record is six games better than Cincinnati’s 61-67 mark. The Diamondbacks score 4.52 runs per game compared with 4.10 for the Reds. Arizona has a .243 batting average compared with .226 for Cincinnati.

On the mound, Arizona has a 4.18 ERA and 1.289 WHIP, compared with 4.47 and 1.40 for Cincinnati.

The defensive gap is even more pronounced.

Arizona’s .989 fielding percentage ranks second in baseball, while Cincinnati’s .984 mark ranks 20th.

The Diamondbacks therefore have advantages in most of the areas that matter across a full nine-inning game.

Key Stats to Watch

Several numbers should receive particular attention when evaluating this matchup:

1. Cincinnati’s .226 Batting Average

The Reds need to find ways to get runners on base against Bratt. Their low batting average makes sustained rallies difficult.

2. Arizona’s .243 Batting Average

The Diamondbacks have a 17-point advantage in batting average, giving them a better foundation for producing consistent offense.

3. Cincinnati’s 1.40 WHIP

This is one of the biggest statistical concerns for the Reds. Allowing that many baserunners creates additional opportunities for Arizona’s offense.

4. Arizona’s 1.289 WHIP

The Diamondbacks have done a better job limiting traffic, which could become important if Abbott keeps Cincinnati competitive.

5. Arizona’s .989 Fielding Percentage

The Diamondbacks have committed only 48 errors. That level of defensive consistency reduces the number of extra opportunities available to Cincinnati.

6. Cincinnati’s 159 Home Runs

The Reds have more home-run power than Arizona. If Cincinnati can turn the game into a power-hitting contest, its chances improve considerably.

7. Andrew Abbott’s 3.59 Career ERA

Abbott represents Cincinnati’s strongest individual statistical advantage.

8. Mitch Bratt’s 1.492 Career WHIP

Bratt’s limited experience and high career WHIP make him the biggest potential weakness on Arizona’s side.

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Biggest Advantages

The Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction ultimately favors Arizona because the Diamondbacks have more ways to win.

Offense: Arizona averages 4.52 runs per game versus 4.10 for Cincinnati.

Batting average: Arizona hits .243 compared with Cincinnati’s .226.

On-base percentage: Arizona owns a .316 OBP versus Cincinnati’s .305.

Pitching: Arizona has a 4.18 ERA compared with Cincinnati’s 4.47.

WHIP: Arizona’s 1.289 WHIP is better than Cincinnati’s 1.40.

Bullpen: Arizona’s 67.4% save rate exceeds Cincinnati’s 62.3%.

Defense: Arizona’s .989 fielding percentage is dramatically better than Cincinnati’s .984.

Record: Arizona is 67-61 compared with Cincinnati’s 61-67.

The only major statistical area that clearly favors Cincinnati is the starting-pitcher matchup. Abbott is more proven and has considerably better career numbers than Bratt.

That advantage should not be ignored, but it is not enough to overcome the number of areas in which Arizona has performed better as a team.

Potential Risks to the Arizona Pick

No moneyline is guaranteed, and there are legitimate reasons to be cautious about laying -145.

The biggest concern is Abbott.

A 3.59 career ERA and 3.53 FIP make him a much tougher starting pitcher than the odds might initially suggest. If Abbott pitches deep into the game and keeps Arizona’s offense quiet, Cincinnati could easily turn this into a one- or two-run contest.

The second concern is Bratt.

His 1.492 career WHIP is substantially higher than Abbott’s 1.284 mark. Arizona needs Bratt to avoid putting too many runners on base early.

Cincinnati also has more home-run power. The Reds have hit 165 home runs compared with 126 for Arizona. One or two swings can erase much of the statistical advantage held by the Diamondbacks.

Finally, the betting price matters. Arizona is not a massive favorite, but -145 still requires the bettor to pay a premium for the expected advantage.

Even with those concerns, the overall matchup remains favorable to Arizona.

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction: Best Bet

The Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction is Arizona Diamondbacks -145.

The Diamondbacks have the better record, stronger offense, better overall pitching numbers, more reliable bullpen statistics and one of the best defensive units in MLB. Those advantages make Arizona the more complete team entering Sunday’s matchup.

Cincinnati’s biggest advantage is Andrew Abbott. His career numbers are substantially better than those of Mitch Bratt, and that gives the Reds a realistic opportunity to keep the game close.

However, the game is ultimately a nine-inning matchup rather than a one-on-one starting-pitcher competition.

Arizona has scored 579 runs compared with Cincinnati’s 523. The Diamondbacks have a higher batting average, higher OBP and higher runs-per-game average. Their pitching staff has also allowed fewer runs while producing a better WHIP and ERA.

The bullpen numbers further support Arizona, while the defensive gap is difficult to overlook.

The Diamondbacks have committed only 48 errors all season and own a .989 fielding percentage. Cincinnati has committed 71 errors and owns a .984 mark.

Taken together, those factors make Arizona the stronger side.

Final Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (-145).

Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in the Reds vs Diamondbacks game?

Arizona is favored at -145, while Cincinnati is listed at +125 on the moneyline.

What is the best Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction?

The recommended Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction is Arizona -145 on the moneyline.

Who are the starting pitchers?

Andrew Abbott is expected to start for Cincinnati, while Mitch Bratt is expected to start for Arizona.

Which team has the better offense?

Arizona has the better overall offensive profile. The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.52 runs per game and batting .243, compared with 4.10 runs per game and a .226 average for Cincinnati.

Which team has the better pitching staff?

Arizona has the better overall team pitching numbers, with a 4.18 ERA and 1.289 WHIP compared with Cincinnati’s 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Does Cincinnati have an advantage at starting pitcher?

Yes. Andrew Abbott is considerably more established than Mitch Bratt and owns a better career ERA, WHIP and FIP.

Which team has the better bullpen?

Arizona has the advantage based on the supplied numbers. The Diamondbacks have a 67.4% save rate compared with Cincinnati’s 62.3%.

Which team has the better defense?

Arizona has the clear defensive advantage. The Diamondbacks have a .989 fielding percentage, ranking second in MLB, while Cincinnati is at .984.

Where is the game being played?

The matchup will take place at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, giving the Diamondbacks home-field advantage.

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction FAQ

What are the Reds vs Diamondbacks odds?

Cincinnati is listed at +125, while Arizona is the -145 favorite. The game total is set at 9 runs.

What is the Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Prediction for August 23, 2026?

The recommended pick is Arizona Diamondbacks -145.

Can the Reds win as +125 underdogs?

Yes. Cincinnati has a legitimate path to victory because Andrew Abbott is the more experienced starting pitcher and the Reds have hit 165 home runs this season. However, Arizona’s overall statistical profile makes the Diamondbacks the preferred side.

Why should bettors favor Arizona?

Arizona has the better record, better batting average, higher runs-per-game average, stronger pitching statistics, better bullpen save percentage and substantially better defense.

What is the biggest concern with betting Arizona?

The biggest concern is Mitch Bratt’s limited MLB experience and 1.492 career WHIP. Cincinnati also has the more accomplished starter in Andrew Abbott.

What is the biggest concern with betting Cincinnati?

Cincinnati’s offense averages only 4.1 runs per game and has a .226 batting average. Its pitching staff also owns a 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Does Arizona’s defense matter for this matchup?

Yes. Arizona’s .989 fielding percentage and 71.1% defensive efficiency provide a meaningful advantage, particularly in a potentially close game.

What is the final MLB pick?

Take Arizona (-145).