Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Can Pittsburgh Pull Off the Upset at Dodger Stadium?

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction points toward Pittsburgh as the moneyline value play when the Pirates visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, August 23, 2026. The Pirates enter the matchup with a 63-66 record and will face the 77-51 Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles is a substantial -196 favorite, while Pittsburgh is available at +162. The betting total is 8.5 runs, with Carmen Mlodzinski scheduled to start for Pittsburgh and Blake Snell expected to take the mound for Los Angeles.

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction is especially interesting because the teams have very different strengths. Los Angeles has the better overall record, a stronger pitching staff, a superior defense and a potent lineup. Pittsburgh, however, is scoring 5.0 runs per game, ranking fourth in MLB, and its +162 moneyline creates considerably more potential value than laying -196 with the Dodgers.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +162

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction recommends taking the Pittsburgh Pirates at +162 on the moneyline. The Dodgers are clearly the stronger team based on their 77-51 record and impressive combination of offense, pitching and defense, but Pittsburgh’s offense has been substantially better than its overall record might suggest.

The Pirates are averaging 5.0 runs per game, fourth in MLB, while batting .256 with a .333 OBP and .411 slugging percentage. That lineup has enough production to create problems for even an elite Dodgers pitching staff.

Los Angeles counters with Blake Snell, who owns a 3.15 career ERA, 1.218 WHIP and 3.10 FIP. The Dodgers also rank first in MLB in hits allowed and first in defensive efficiency. Those factors make Pittsburgh a risky underdog, but +162 offers enough upside to make the Pirates the preferred side.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Game Information

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

TV: Spectrum SportsNet LA

Moneyline: Pittsburgh +162, Los Angeles -196

Total: 8.5 runs

Starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh

Starting pitcher: Blake Snell, Los Angeles

Recommended pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +162

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction comes down to whether Pittsburgh’s high-scoring offense can take advantage of enough opportunities to make the underdog price worthwhile.

Why Pittsburgh Is the Pick

The primary reason for the Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction is the moneyline price. Los Angeles is being asked to win at a price of -196, meaning bettors must risk substantially more to back the favorite. Pittsburgh is available at +162, providing a significantly larger return if the Pirates can pull off the upset.

The Dodgers have obvious advantages. They are 77-51, have scored 640 runs and own a .260 batting average. Their pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA, 1.167 WHIP and 3.94 FIP. Their defense has also converted 72.6% of balls in play into outs, the best mark in MLB.

But Pittsburgh is not an offensively weak underdog. The Pirates have scored 646 runs, six more than Los Angeles, despite having a much worse record. Their 5.0 runs-per-game average ranks fourth in MLB, compared with fifth for the Dodgers.

That offensive production is what makes +162 appealing.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh’s Offensive Profile

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction starts with Pittsburgh’s offense because that is the team’s clearest route to an upset.

The Pirates are hitting .256 as a team and have a .333 OBP. They have collected 1,136 hits, 198 doubles and 155 home runs. Their .411 slugging percentage is also respectable, particularly considering their overall record.

Pittsburgh has generated 616 RBIs and scored 646 runs. Most importantly, the Pirates are averaging 5.0 runs per contest, fourth in MLB.

That ranking is significant. A team scoring five runs per game is capable of beating a heavily favored opponent if the starting pitcher has even a slightly below-average outing.

The Pirates also draw 461 walks while striking out 1,208 times. The strikeout total is high, but the ability to get on base through walks helps compensate. A .333 OBP gives Pittsburgh opportunities to create innings even when hits are not coming consistently.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh’s Pitching

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction is more complicated when evaluating the pitching staffs.

Pittsburgh has a 4.29 team ERA, which ranks 21st in MLB. The staff has allowed 615 runs and 133 home runs. The Pirates have also surrendered 1,051 hits and walked 471 opposing hitters.

Their team WHIP is 1.32, while their FIP is considerably better at 3.92. That difference is worth noting because FIP attempts to isolate the outcomes pitchers control most directly, including strikeouts, walks and home runs.

Pittsburgh has struck out 1,196 hitters, while its strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.54.

The Pirates’ pitching is clearly inferior to Los Angeles’ overall numbers, but the FIP suggests the staff may have performed better underneath the surface than the ERA indicates.

That gives Pittsburgh at least some reason for optimism in an underdog matchup.

Carmen Mlodzinski vs Blake Snell

One of the biggest questions in the Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction is whether Carmen Mlodzinski can keep the game competitive against Blake Snell.

Mlodzinski has accumulated 287 MLB innings and 250 strikeouts. He owns a 3.54 career ERA, 1.336 WHIP and 3.49 FIP. He has allowed 284 hits and 100 walks while facing 1,231 hitters.

The WHIP is less impressive than Snell’s, but Mlodzinski’s FIP is encouraging. His career FIP of 3.49 indicates that his strikeout, walk and home-run profile has been relatively strong.

Against the Dodgers, however, he will have very little margin for error.

Los Angeles has a .260 team batting average and a .335 OBP. The Dodgers also have 166 home runs and 640 runs scored. If Mlodzinski puts too many runners on base, the Dodgers have enough offensive firepower to create a multi-run inning.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Blake Snell’s Advantage

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction must account for Snell’s experience and career performance.

Snell has a 3.15 career ERA across 1,173 MLB innings. He has struck out 1,460 hitters and allowed 902 hits. His 6.9 hits per nine innings is excellent, while his 1.218 WHIP demonstrates his ability to limit baserunners.

His career FIP is 3.10, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.77.

Those numbers make Snell one of the biggest reasons Los Angeles is such a substantial favorite.

The Pirates cannot simply expect to score their season-average five runs against him. Pittsburgh will need to manufacture runs through timely hitting, walks and potentially home-run power.

If Snell is at his best, Pittsburgh’s upset chances decrease substantially.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Comparing the Offenses

Offensively, this matchup is closer than the standings might indicate.

Category | Pirates | Dodgers
Record | 63-66 | 77-51
Runs | 646 | 640
Runs/Game | 5.0 | 5.0
Batting Average | .256 | .260
OBP | .333 | .335
Slugging | .411 | .430
Home Runs | 155 | 166
Doubles | 198 | 210
RBI | 616 | 605

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction gets more interesting when these numbers are placed next to each other.

The Dodgers have the superior slugging percentage and slightly better batting average and OBP. But Pittsburgh has actually scored six more runs than Los Angeles.

That means the Pirates’ offense has been highly productive despite their losing record.

The Dodgers’ 77-51 record is driven by much more than their offense. Their pitching and defense have been excellent. Pittsburgh’s offensive numbers demonstrate that the Pirates are capable of putting pressure on Los Angeles.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Dodgers Pitching Edge

The Dodgers have one of the biggest statistical advantages in the Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction on the mound.

Los Angeles has a 3.70 team ERA, 1.167 WHIP and 3.94 FIP. The Dodgers have allowed only 920 hits, ranking first in MLB.

They have also struck out 1,154 hitters while walking 401, producing a 9.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

That is a major difference from Pittsburgh’s 2.54 ratio.

Los Angeles has allowed 495 runs, compared with Pittsburgh’s 615. The Dodgers also surrender only 3.93 runs per nine innings, ranking fifth in MLB.

From a pure pitching perspective, Los Angeles has the clear advantage.

The Pittsburgh offense therefore needs to outperform its normal production to have the best chance of winning.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Bullpen Comparison

The bullpen could be a critical component of the Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction.

Pittsburgh’s bullpen has recorded only 25 saves and blown 20 of 45 save opportunities. Its 55.6% save rate is one of the weaker marks in MLB. The Pirates have also recorded just 50 holds, ranking 29th.

That creates concern if Pittsburgh takes a late lead.

Los Angeles has a 66.7% save rate and 83 holds. The Dodgers have blown 18 saves, but their overall bullpen profile is stronger.

If the game is tied after six innings, Los Angeles would generally have the more reliable pitching situation.

This is one reason Pittsburgh’s best chance may be to score early and force the Dodgers to chase the game rather than entering the late innings with a narrow lead.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Defensive Advantage

Defense strongly favors Los Angeles.

The Dodgers have a .988 fielding percentage, compared with Pittsburgh’s .982. More importantly, Los Angeles has converted 72.6% of balls in play into outs, first in MLB.

Pittsburgh’s defensive efficiency is only 68.5%, ranking 27th.

That difference can become important in a close game.

The Dodgers are more likely to turn balls in play into outs and avoid giving away extra bases. Pittsburgh has committed 81 errors, while Los Angeles has committed only 52.

This is another reason why the Dodgers are deserving favorites despite the recommended underdog wager.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Why the Price Matters

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction should not be interpreted as saying Pittsburgh is the better team. The Dodgers are clearly better.

The argument is about price.

At -196, Los Angeles needs to win at a very high rate for the moneyline to justify the risk. Pittsburgh at +162 requires considerably fewer wins to generate theoretical value.

A +162 underdog returns $162 in profit on a $100 wager if Pittsburgh wins, excluding the original stake.

That payout is significant.

If Pittsburgh’s offense can take advantage of even a few opportunities against Snell and Mlodzinski can prevent the Dodgers from creating a large early lead, the Pirates have a legitimate upset path.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: What Pittsburgh Needs to Do

Pittsburgh needs three things to happen.

1. Score early

The Pirates should attempt to make Snell work. They cannot afford to wait until the seventh or eighth inning to generate offense.

2. Limit home runs

The Dodgers have 166 home runs. Giving Los Angeles easy solo or multi-run homers would make an upset extremely difficult.

3. Keep the bullpen out of trouble

Because Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a 55.6% save rate, a large lead would be preferable to a one-run advantage. If the Pirates are ahead by only one run late, the Dodgers will have an opportunity to exploit Pittsburgh’s relief issues.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: What Los Angeles Needs to Do

Los Angeles needs to let Snell control the early innings.

If Snell gets through five or six innings without allowing significant traffic, the Dodgers should be in excellent position.

The Dodgers should also use their superior bullpen and defense to protect any lead.

Offensively, Los Angeles needs to force Mlodzinski into uncomfortable counts. Pittsburgh’s staff has walked 471 hitters, so free passes could be the quickest route to a Dodgers rally.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Total of 8.5 Runs

The total is 8.5 runs, creating another interesting component of the Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction.

Pittsburgh averages 5.0 runs per game and Los Angeles averages 5.0, suggesting an average combined scoring environment around 10 runs. However, those season averages do not account for the starting pitchers.

Snell’s 3.15 career ERA and Mlodzinski’s 3.54 career ERA suggest that both starters can outperform their respective team pitching statistics.

The Dodgers’ 3.70 team ERA is also strong.

Because the moneyline offers a clearer value argument, the recommended wager remains Pittsburgh +162 rather than making the total the primary play.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Can Pittsburgh Score Five Runs?

That is one of the central questions surrounding the game.

Pittsburgh has already demonstrated that it can score at an elite rate over the course of the season. The Pirates rank fourth in MLB at 5.0 runs per game.

However, Snell is not an average opposing starter.

The Pirates have to create offense differently than they would against a weaker pitcher. Getting runners on base, avoiding excessive strikeouts and capitalizing on mistakes will be critical.

The Pirates’ .333 OBP gives them a path to generating traffic even if Snell limits their batting average.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Can Los Angeles Reach Five Runs?

Los Angeles has a strong chance of producing a substantial offensive performance.

The Dodgers have scored 640 runs and average 5.0 per game. Their .260 batting average is among the strongest team marks in the matchup.

They also have 166 home runs and 210 doubles.

Mlodzinski’s 1.336 career WHIP is the biggest concern. If he allows multiple baserunners, Los Angeles can create pressure through its depth.

Pittsburgh’s defense is also less efficient than Los Angeles’ defense, meaning the Dodgers could benefit from additional balls in play.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Home-Field Advantage

Dodger Stadium gives Los Angeles a meaningful home-field advantage.

The Dodgers are comfortable playing in their home environment, and they get the final at-bat. In a close game, that can be particularly important.

However, home-field advantage is already reflected to some extent in the -196 moneyline.

That is why bettors looking for value should not automatically assume the Dodgers are the better wager simply because they are playing at home.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Season Records

The records tell a clear story.

Pittsburgh is 63-66, while Los Angeles is 77-51.

The Dodgers have won 14 more games than the Pirates and are clearly having the better season.

But the Pirates’ record does not accurately describe their offensive capabilities.

Pittsburgh has scored 646 runs, compared with 640 for Los Angeles.

The biggest difference is therefore pitching and run prevention. The Dodgers have allowed only 495 runs, while Pittsburgh has allowed 615.

That 120-run difference is enormous and explains much of the standings gap.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: FIP Analysis

FIP provides another reason to believe Pittsburgh may be better than its ERA suggests.

The Pirates have a 3.92 team FIP despite a 4.29 ERA. That 37-point difference indicates that their underlying strikeout, walk and home-run results have been stronger than their actual run prevention.

The Dodgers have a 3.94 FIP and a 3.70 ERA.

That means Los Angeles has performed slightly better in ERA than FIP, while Pittsburgh has performed slightly worse.

For this individual game, FIP does not override Snell’s quality, but it does offer some support for Pittsburgh’s pitching staff.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Strikeout Matchup

Strikeouts could determine the game.

Pittsburgh has struck out 1,208 times, one of the highest totals in the supplied statistics. Los Angeles has struck out only 1,000 times.

Snell has accumulated 1,460 career strikeouts.

Mlodzinski has 250.

The Dodgers’ lineup is more difficult to strike out, while Snell has the ability to generate swings and misses.

Pittsburgh must avoid falling into long two-strike counts. The more frequently the Pirates strike out without creating baserunners, the more difficult the upset becomes.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Walks Could Be Important

Walks are another important variable.

Pittsburgh has drawn 461 walks, while Los Angeles has drawn 469. Both offenses have demonstrated a strong ability to reach base without needing a hit.

Pittsburgh’s .333 OBP is close to Los Angeles’ .335.

That is important because the Pirates can potentially generate scoring opportunities without needing to hit Snell consistently.

At the same time, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have issued 471 walks, compared with 401 from the Dodgers.

Mlodzinski and the Pittsburgh bullpen need to avoid giving Los Angeles free baserunners.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Upset Scenario

A realistic upset scenario could look like this:

Mlodzinski holds Los Angeles to two or three runs through five innings. Pittsburgh’s lineup takes advantage of a few Snell mistakes and scores three or four runs of its own. The Pirates enter the late innings with a narrow lead.

At that point, Pittsburgh’s bullpen becomes the major concern.

If the Pirates can extend the lead to two or three runs, their chances improve considerably. If they hold only a one-run lead, Los Angeles’ offense and bullpen make the final innings dangerous.

That is why early offense is so important for Pittsburgh.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Dodgers Win Scenario

The most likely Dodgers victory would involve Snell dominating early.

If Snell limits Pittsburgh to one or two runs, Los Angeles’ offense should have enough opportunities to take control.

A 5-2 or 5-3 Dodgers win would fit the statistical profile.

Los Angeles has the better pitching staff, better defense and stronger overall record. The Dodgers also have the home-field advantage.

That is why this is not a low-risk underdog selection.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh Win Scenario

The most appealing Pittsburgh scenario is a high-variance game.

The Pirates have enough offense to make the game uncomfortable for Los Angeles. If Pittsburgh gets runners on base and hits a couple of balls into the gaps, the Pirates can build a lead before the Dodgers’ bullpen becomes a factor.

Pittsburgh’s 198 doubles are particularly relevant. The Pirates do not have to rely solely on home runs to create extra-base damage.

If Mlodzinski can keep the Dodgers from scoring more than three runs, Pittsburgh has a realistic chance to cash the +162 moneyline.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Best Bet

The best bet from the supplied odds is:

Pittsburgh Pirates +162

The Dodgers are the better team, but the price makes Pittsburgh interesting.

Los Angeles at -196 requires a substantial investment, while Pittsburgh at +162 offers a considerably larger potential return.

The Pirates’ fourth-ranked scoring offense is the main reason to believe the underdog can stay competitive. Their pitching is the weakness, but Mlodzinski’s career 3.54 ERA and 3.49 FIP provide enough evidence that he can deliver a respectable start.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Final Pick and Score

The final Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction is Pittsburgh +162.

The Dodgers deserve to be favored, but -196 is an expensive price against a Pittsburgh team that has scored 646 runs and ranks fourth in MLB in runs per game.

The Dodgers’ 77-51 record, 3.70 ERA and elite defense make them dangerous, but Pittsburgh’s offense creates enough upset potential to justify taking the plus money.

Projected score: Pirates 5, Dodgers 4

The projected score is not intended as a guarantee, but it reflects the preferred game script: Pittsburgh’s offense does enough damage to make the underdog price worthwhile while Mlodzinski and the Pirates’ pitching staff keep Los Angeles within reach.

Final Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +162

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction FAQ

Who is favored in Pirates vs Dodgers?

The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored at -196. The Pittsburgh Pirates are listed at +162.

What is the Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction?

The recommended pick is the Pittsburgh Pirates at +162 on the moneyline.

Why pick Pittsburgh as the underdog?

Pittsburgh is scoring 5.0 runs per game, fourth in MLB, and has scored 646 runs this season. The Pirates’ offense gives them a legitimate chance to compete with Los Angeles despite the Dodgers’ superior overall record.

Who are the starting pitchers?

Carmen Mlodzinski is scheduled to start for Pittsburgh, while Blake Snell is scheduled to start for Los Angeles.

What is Blake Snell’s career ERA?

Snell owns a 3.15 career MLB ERA, along with a 1.218 WHIP and 3.10 FIP.

What is Carmen Mlodzinski’s career ERA?

Mlodzinski owns a 3.54 career ERA, 1.336 WHIP and 3.49 FIP across 287 MLB innings.

What is the betting total?

The total is 8.5 runs.

Which team has the better offense?

The Dodgers have slightly better offensive efficiency, but Pittsburgh has scored more total runs. The Pirates have 646 runs compared with 640 for Los Angeles.

Which team has the better pitching staff?

Los Angeles has the stronger pitching staff. The Dodgers own a 3.70 ERA and 1.167 WHIP, compared with Pittsburgh’s 4.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Which team has the better defense?

Los Angeles has the clear defensive advantage. The Dodgers have a .988 fielding percentage and 72.6% defensive efficiency, while Pittsburgh has a .982 fielding percentage and 68.5% defensive efficiency.

Is Pittsburgh a risky bet?

Yes. The Pirates are substantial underdogs for a reason. Los Angeles has the better record, starting pitcher, bullpen, pitching staff and defense. The value comes from the +162 price rather than from Pittsburgh being the statistically superior team.

What is the final pick?

Pittsburgh Pirates +162.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction: Final Analysis

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction presents an intriguing contrast between one of baseball’s strongest teams and an underdog with an offense capable of producing at an elite level.

The Dodgers enter at 77-51 and have performed extremely well across virtually every area of the game. They score 5.0 runs per game, own a .260 batting average and .335 OBP, and have 166 home runs. Their pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Their defense is arguably their biggest advantage, with a 72.6% defensive efficiency that ranks first in MLB.

Pittsburgh enters at 63-66, but the Pirates have scored 646 runs. Their 5.0 runs per game ranks fourth in MLB. They have a .256 batting average, .333 OBP, 198 doubles and 155 home runs.

That offensive production is the reason the Pirates should not be dismissed.

The biggest challenge is Snell. His 3.15 career ERA, 1.218 WHIP and 3.10 FIP represent a major obstacle for Pittsburgh. The Pirates must capitalize on every opportunity they receive.

Mlodzinski also needs to limit damage. His 3.54 career ERA and 3.49 FIP provide reasons for optimism, but his 1.336 career WHIP suggests that he can allow traffic.

The bullpen is another concern for Pittsburgh. Its 55.6% save rate ranks well below the Dodgers’ 66.7% mark. If Pittsburgh has a narrow lead late, Los Angeles will have the advantage.

Nevertheless, +162 is a compelling price for a team that ranks fourth in MLB in scoring. The Pirates do not need to prove they are better than the Dodgers. They only need to win one game, and their offense provides a legitimate route to an upset.

The Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Prediction therefore favors Pittsburgh as the moneyline value side.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +162

Projected Score: Pittsburgh 5, Los Angeles 4