New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction: Can the Aggies Cover the 31.5-Point Spread?

New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction: Can the Aggies cover +31.5 against the Seminoles in the 2026 college football opener?

The New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction favors the New Mexico State Aggies to cover the +31.5-point spread against the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Florida State is the clear favorite at -31.5, but the large number creates value on the underdog. The Seminoles have the stronger overall offense and defense, yet New Mexico State’s ability to move the ball through the air and Florida State’s defensive vulnerabilities from last season make it difficult to justify laying more than four touchdowns. Pick: New Mexico State +31.5.

New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction Summary

The New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction comes down primarily to the size of the point spread. Florida State enters the matchup as a 31.5-point favorite after going 5-7 last season, while New Mexico State finished 4-8.

The Seminoles have the more explosive offense. Florida State averaged 472.1 yards and 33.0 points per game last season, ranking sixth nationally in total offense and 22nd in scoring. New Mexico State, meanwhile, averaged only 21.6 points and 77.3 rushing yards per game.

However, the Aggies are receiving more than four touchdowns, and that provides a significant cushion. New Mexico State averaged nearly 328 passing yards per game last season based on its total-yardage and rushing production, while Florida State allowed 190.8 passing yards per game. The Seminoles also allowed 138.1 rushing yards per contest.

Florida State should have the advantage and could win comfortably, but covering -31.5 requires the Seminoles to win by at least 32 points. That is a substantial margin for an FSU team that went only 5-7 last season.

Pick: New Mexico State +31.5

Game Information

Game: New Mexico State Aggies vs Florida State Seminoles

Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026

Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

TV: ESPN+

Spread: Florida State -31.5

Total: 52.5

Prediction: New Mexico State +31.5

Table of Contents

New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction

New Mexico State Aggies Analysis

Florida State Seminoles Analysis

New Mexico State Offense vs Florida State Defense

Florida State Offense vs New Mexico State Defense

New Mexico State vs Florida State Point Spread Analysis

New Mexico State vs Florida State Total Prediction

Best Bet for New Mexico State vs Florida State

Who Will Win New Mexico State vs Florida State?

Follow-Up Questions

FAQ

New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction

The biggest factor in this matchup is the 31.5-point spread. Florida State is expected to win, but the question for bettors is whether the Seminoles can win by at least 32 points.

Florida State’s statistical profile gives the favorite plenty of reasons to be confident. The Seminoles averaged 472.1 yards per game last season, including 253.4 passing yards and 218.7 rushing yards per game. They also scored 33.0 points per contest.

New Mexico State had significant offensive limitations, particularly on the ground. The Aggies averaged only 77.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 136th in Division 1. They also averaged 21.6 points per game.

That disparity explains the massive spread.

Still, the New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction is not necessarily about which team is better. Florida State is clearly the superior team based on the supplied numbers. Instead, the question is whether New Mexico State can stay within 31.5 points.

The Aggies’ passing attack could help them accomplish that. New Mexico State scored 17 passing touchdowns last season, and its final game against MTSU showed that the offense was capable of producing yardage. The Aggies generated 395 total yards in that contest, including 311 yards through the air.

Florida State also allowed opponents to average 4.3 yards per rushing attempt last season and surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. While those numbers are not necessarily alarming, they suggest the Seminoles were not completely dominant defensively.

If New Mexico State can produce two or three touchdowns, the Aggies have a much better chance of staying inside the number.

New Mexico State Aggies Analysis

New Mexico State enters the season after a 4-8 campaign. The Aggies struggled to consistently generate offense, averaging just 21.6 points per game.

Their biggest weakness was their rushing production. New Mexico State averaged only 77.3 rushing yards per contest, ranking 136th in the country. That makes it difficult to sustain drives against a major-conference opponent, particularly on the road.

The Aggies also finished last season with 3,935 total yards. They produced 17 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns while turning the ball over 24 times.

Turnovers are an important concern in this matchup. Giving Florida State short fields could quickly turn a competitive game into a blowout. New Mexico State cannot afford repeated giveaways if it wants to cover +31.5.

The Aggies’ defense also has areas of concern. They allowed 401.8 yards per game and 27.6 points per game. Opponents averaged 165.0 rushing yards against them, while New Mexico State surrendered 25 passing touchdowns.

Those numbers make Florida State’s offensive potential particularly concerning.

However, the Aggies are not completely without strengths. They allowed 236.8 passing yards per game, and their opponents completed 63.8% of their passes. While that is hardly an elite defensive profile, it means New Mexico State does not have to completely shut down Florida State to cover.

With a spread this large, simply avoiding a catastrophic first half could be enough to keep the game within range.

Florida State Seminoles Analysis

Florida State finished 5-7 last season, but its offensive numbers were much stronger than its overall record suggests.

The Seminoles averaged 472.1 yards per game, ranking sixth in Division 1. They also averaged 33.0 points per game, good for 22nd nationally.

The rushing attack was particularly productive. Florida State averaged 218.7 rushing yards per game and accumulated 2,624 rushing yards over the course of the season.

Through the air, the Seminoles averaged 253.4 passing yards per game. That balance makes Florida State difficult for an opponent like New Mexico State to defend.

The Seminoles also demonstrated strong efficiency in their final game despite losing to Florida. Florida State generated 407 total yards and averaged 6.3 yards per play. The offense also rushed for 167 yards on 37 attempts.

The major question is whether Florida State can translate that offensive production into a huge margin of victory.

Winning by 32 or more points is a different challenge from simply winning the game.

Florida State’s defense allowed 22.0 points per game last season, which ranked 43rd nationally. The Seminoles allowed 1,657 rushing yards and 20 passing touchdowns. Their defense was substantially better than New Mexico State’s, but it was not among the nation’s elite units.

That is important for the New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction because the Aggies only need enough offensive production to stay competitive against the spread.

New Mexico State Offense vs Florida State Defense

This is arguably the most important matchup for the point spread.

New Mexico State averaged only 21.6 points per game, while Florida State allowed 22.0 points per contest. On paper, those numbers suggest that the Aggies could struggle to score.

However, the spread requires a much more specific calculation.

If Florida State scores 40 points, New Mexico State needs only nine points to cover. If Florida State scores 45, the Aggies need 14. If Florida State scores 50, New Mexico State needs 19.

In other words, even a relatively strong Florida State offensive performance does not automatically eliminate the possibility of an Aggies cover.

New Mexico State’s ability to throw the ball will be important. The Aggies generated 260 passing yards in their season finale and completed 24 of 43 attempts. If they can maintain some consistency through the air, they should have opportunities to put points on the scoreboard.

The biggest danger is turnovers. New Mexico State gave the ball away 24 times last season. Against a talented opponent playing at home, another turnover-heavy performance could result in short fields and rapid scoring drives for Florida State.

Florida State Offense vs New Mexico State Defense

This is where Florida State has its biggest advantage.

The Seminoles averaged 472.1 yards per game last season compared with 401.8 yards allowed per game by New Mexico State. Florida State also averaged 218.7 rushing yards per game, while the Aggies surrendered 165.0 rushing yards per contest.

That matchup strongly favors the Seminoles.

Florida State should be capable of establishing the run and forcing New Mexico State to commit additional defenders to the box. Once that happens, the Seminoles can use their passing game to attack the Aggies’ secondary.

New Mexico State allowed opponents to score 27.6 points per game last season. Florida State averaged 33.0 points.

The potential for Florida State to reach the 40-point range is therefore significant.

The question is whether the Seminoles continue pushing offensively once they establish a comfortable lead. That is a major consideration when betting a 31.5-point favorite. A team can dominate the game and still fail to cover because of reduced offensive aggression late in the contest.

New Mexico State vs Florida State Point Spread Analysis

The New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction is centered on the underdog because of the enormous spread.

Florida State is laying 31.5 points, meaning a $100 bettor taking the Seminoles against the spread would need Florida State to win by 32 or more points for the wager to cash.

That is a significant requirement for a team that finished 5-7 last season.

Florida State certainly has enough offensive firepower to create a large margin. The Seminoles ranked sixth nationally in total offense and averaged 33.0 points. New Mexico State’s defense ranked only 88th in scoring defense, allowing 27.6 points per game.

But the Aggies do not need to win. They do not even need to make the game particularly close. They simply need to avoid losing by 32 or more.

That makes New Mexico State +31.5 attractive.

A final margin somewhere around 20-28 points would be enough for the underdog to cash, even if Florida State controls the game from start to finish.

New Mexico State vs Florida State Total Prediction

The total is set at 52.5 points.

Florida State’s offense gives the game considerable over potential. The Seminoles averaged 33.0 points per game last season, while New Mexico State allowed 27.6.

At the same time, New Mexico State averaged only 21.6 points per game, and Florida State allowed just 22.0.

A reasonable scoring range could put Florida State somewhere in the upper 30s or low 40s, with New Mexico State needing to contribute enough points to push the game toward the total.

For example, a 38-17 Florida State victory would produce 55 total points and allow New Mexico State to cover the 31.5-point spread.

A 42-14 Florida State win would produce 56 points, also going over while allowing the Aggies to cover.

Those scenarios demonstrate why the side and total do not necessarily have to move together.

The supplied pick is specifically New Mexico State +31.5, making the spread the preferred wager.

Best Bet for New Mexico State vs Florida State

Pick: New Mexico State +31.5

The best bet in the New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction is the Aggies at +31.5 points.

Florida State should win the game, but the spread is large enough that New Mexico State has considerable room for error.

The Seminoles have the superior offense, but their 5-7 record from last season is a reminder that this is not a team that should automatically be expected to win every game by four or more touchdowns.

New Mexico State’s ability to throw the football is another reason to take the points. If the Aggies can avoid turnovers and sustain a few drives, they should have enough opportunities to score.

Final Pick: New Mexico State Aggies +31.5

Who Will Win New Mexico State vs Florida State?

Florida State is the most likely winner based on the statistical matchup.

The Seminoles have major advantages in offensive production, particularly in total yardage and rushing offense. Florida State averaged 472.1 yards per game last season compared with 3,935 total yards for New Mexico State over the entire campaign.

Florida State should control possession, generate explosive plays and put pressure on the Aggies’ defense.

However, winning and covering are two different propositions.

The New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction calls for the Seminoles to win while the Aggies cover the large number.

Projected result: Florida State wins, New Mexico State covers +31.5.

Follow-Up Questions

Can New Mexico State cover +31.5 against Florida State?

Yes. The 31.5-point spread gives New Mexico State substantial room to lose while still covering. The Aggies need to stay within four touchdowns plus two points.

Is Florida State favored by 31.5 points?

Yes. Florida State is listed as a 31.5-point favorite over New Mexico State.

What is the over/under for New Mexico State vs Florida State?

The total is 52.5 points.

Which team has the better offense?

Florida State has the clear statistical advantage. The Seminoles averaged 472.1 yards and 33.0 points per game last season, while New Mexico State averaged 21.6 points per game.

Why take New Mexico State +31.5?

The primary reason is the size of the spread. Florida State is expected to be the better team, but winning by 32 or more points is a much more demanding outcome. New Mexico State’s passing ability could also help the Aggies stay within the number.

FAQ

What is the New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction?

The New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Prediction is to take New Mexico State +31.5. Florida State is expected to win, but the Aggies have enough offensive ability to remain within the large spread.

Who is favored in New Mexico State vs Florida State?

Florida State is favored by 31.5 points at home.

What is the New Mexico State vs Florida State over/under?

The total is 52.5 points.

What was New Mexico State’s record last season?

The New Mexico State Aggies finished last season with a 4-8 record.

What was Florida State’s record last season?

The Florida State Seminoles finished last season with a 5-7 record.

How many points did Florida State average last season?

Florida State averaged 33.0 points per game, ranking 22nd in Division 1.

How many points did New Mexico State average last season?

New Mexico State averaged 21.6 points per game.

What is the best bet for New Mexico State vs Florida State?

The recommended wager is New Mexico State +31.5. The Seminoles have the talent to win comfortably, but the large spread makes the Aggies the preferred side.