Betting NFL: How to Bet on American Football, Easy Guide. Learn to bet and get your action at YouWager.lv. Sign up now and get your bonus.
When do NFL Betting Begin?
NFL betting typically begins before the start of the NFL season, with sportsbooks releasing lines for the first week’s games and futures bets for the season. Betting continues throughout the season with lines released each week for upcoming games.
Where to Bet on NFL Games?
NFL games can be bet on at offshore sportsbooks such as YouWager.lv. This and similar online sportsbooks offer a variety of betting options for NFL games throughout the season.
Which are Legal NFL Betting Sites?
Legal NFL betting sites vary by state. To bet right now from any state, you can always use an offshore site such as YouWager.lv.
Betting NFL Lines
Next, let’s talk about Betting NFL lines.
What are NFL Betting Lines?
NFL betting lines include the point spread, moneyline, and over/under totals for each game. These lines are provided by sportsbooks to indicate the expected margin of victory, the odds of each team winning outright, and the total number of points scored in the game.
You can check the NFL Betting Odds Week 1: All Opening Lines here.
What Do NFL Openers Mean for Betting?
NFL openers refer to the initial betting lines set by sportsbooks for upcoming games. These lines are released early in the week and can change based on betting activity, injuries, and other factors leading up to the game.
What Does + or – Mean in Football Sports Betting Lines?
Plus (+) indicates an underdog and the potential payout for a $100 bet; minus (-) indicates a favorite and how much you need to bet to win $100.
Who Creates NFL Betting Lines?
NFL betting lines are set by oddsmakers at sportsbooks, who consider team performance, injuries, and public perception.
Betting NFL: Types of Bets
Now in this article on Betting NFL, let’s talk about the different betting types:
Betting NFL: Money Line
First in this Betting NFL article, let’s talk about the money line.
What is Money Line in NFL Betting?
The money line in NFL betting represents a bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the point spread. Positive numbers indicate the underdog and the payout on a $100 bet, while negative numbers indicate the favorite and the amount needed to bet to win $100.
The table below provides a general comparison of an NFL Money line and point spread based on certain important metrics, assuming -110 odds.
NFL Moneylines and Point Spreads
| Favorite Point Spread | Moneyline |
Historical Straight Up Win% | Underdog Point Spread | Moneyline |
Historical Straight Up Win% |
| –2 | –130 | 59% | +2 | +110 | 41% |
| –2½ | –140 | 58% | +2½ | +125 | 42% |
| –3 | –155 | 58% | +3 | +140 | 42% |
| –3½ | –175 | 63% | +3½ | +155 | 37% |
| –4 | –200 | 66% | +4 | +170 | 34% |
| –6 | –270 | 72% | +6 | +210 | 28% |
| –6½ | –300 | 84% | +6½ | +220 | 16% |
| –7 | –330 | 75% | +7 | +250 | 25% |
| –7½ | –360 | 82% | +7½ | +280 | 18% |
| –9½ | –400 | 76% | +9½ | +300 | 24% |
| –10 | –450 | 75% | +10 | +325 | 25% |
Since 2013 these figures have taken into account the most recent regulations that directly affected the scoring.
This implies that there may not be enough data at this time to smooth out the curve for some of the anomalies you observe.
In case you were wondering, the fact that the winning percentages linked to each point spread is the opposite of one another is not a coincidence.
These are approximations in general. Money lines are more likely to have turbulence beneath the surface, even though point spreads can give the appearance of calm and serene odds.
Money lines are frequently used by sportsbooks to fine-tune action on either side of a game because they don’t always move in perfect rhythm with spread movements.
Two games on an NFL Sunday might feature two different Money lines—one at -155 and the other at -145—with the favorites both listed at -3 +100. The takeaway? If you bet on Money lines, compare prices.
Betting NFL: Total Over/Under Bets
Now in this Betting NFL guide, let’s talk about the total or Over/Under.
What is the Total in Football Betting?
The total in football betting refers to the combined points or goals scored in a game, where bettors wager on whether it will be over or under a set number, influencing betting odds and strategies.
What Does O/U Mean in Betting Football?
O/U in betting football refers to the over/under bet on totals (such as total points scored in a game); bettors wager whether the actual total will be over or under a specified number set by the sportsbook.
What Does Take the Under Mean in NFL Betting?
Taking the under in NFL betting means wagering that the total combined points scored by both teams will be less than a specified number set by the sportsbook.
Betting NFL: Parlays
Next in Betting NFL, let’s talk about parlays.
What is a Parlay in Football Betting?
Parlay betting in football involves combining multiple bets into a single wager, with the potential for higher payouts but requiring all bets to win for the parlay to pay out.
You can wager on NFL Money lines, totals, and point spreads in these multi-way bets.
Parlays are similar to placing a wager on one game and automatically transferring the earnings to another wager.
This is done for you automatically by the sportsbook.
The best thing for NFL bettors is that they don’t have to worry about the games starting at the same time; parlay games are regarded as though they are bet in order.
Payouts for standard parlays are as follows:
- 2 bets 2.6 to 1
- 3 bets 6 to 1
- 4 bets 12 to 1
There are limitations with parlay bets. It is generally forbidden by sportsbooks to parlay an NFL spread and total on the same game.
All of the legs in a parlay wager have to win. The parlay wager returns to the odds of a parlay with one less wager if any of the legs push. For instance, three wins pays 6-to-1 if you bet a three-way parlay. Should one of the top players push, your parlay would be handled as a two-way parlay with a ratio of 2.6 to 1.
Betting NFL: Teasers
Next in Betting NFL, let’s talk about teasers.
What is a Teaser in NFL Betting?
A teaser bet in NFL betting allows you to adjust the point spread or over/under total in your favor, typically by 6, 6.5, or 7 points, in exchange for a lower payout. Teaser bets combine multiple games, and all selections must win for the bet to pay out.
- A 6-point teaser needs to be won by wagerers 72.3 percent of the time in order to break even.
- A 6½-point teaser needs to be won by bettors 73.8 percent of the time in order to break even.
- A 7-point teaser needs be won by bettors 75.1 percent of the time in order to break even.
Betting NFL Preseason
Here’s information on Betting NFL preseason.
Here’s a quick quiz: How exactly are you and I similar to All-Pro NFL players? Answer: When it comes to football preseason games, we are all spectators.
Summer is springtime in football.
Wait, summer is actually springtime. Preseason NFL football is, for a fleeting moment, a welcome sight after the six months of doldrums that follow the final whistle of the Super Bowl, with sporadic glimpses of the other side at draft time and throughout OTAs.
But football in the preseason wears off almost as quickly. As of this writing, the NFL preseason consists of four games, with clubs playing in August and early September. It’s a painful mini-season.
Apart from the regular schedule of two home games and two away games, teams may sometimes play promotional games in non-NFL locales.
The decision-makers are seriously discussing how to cut down on preseason games without sacrificing the gate and media income that come with each owner’s two annual home games.
A longer regular season in exchange for preseason games is one suggestion. The NFL Players Association seems to be adamantly opposed to adding two regular season games, so I’ll believe that when I see it.
All of that will depend on how the players and team owners renegotiate the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
As a fan, preseason NFL football is so disappointing because of the uncanny valley: Everything about it, even the stadiums and outfits, is identical to an actual NFL game, but there’s an unsettling lack of balance. Quarantining experienced players is the new normal. Stars frequently don’t play in the final preseason game at all and just play a series in the first few games.
Fortunately, gaming keeps us cool during the sweltering summer months. Football in the preseason doesn’t have to be a weigh-between of dull or irrelevant.
If the game is meaningless and the players are basically spares running a playbook from last year’s Pro Bowl, at least you can add some intrigue with a wager.
NFL football wagering during preseason is surprisingly active. A summer Sunday of baseball, tennis, golf, and summer league basketball is among the activities that attract more wagering than the Hall of Fame Game (the first preseason game), according to several sports sportsbooks.
Betting NFL: Preseason Lines, Limits
It should be evident that it’s worthwhile to pursue as sharps place wagers on the preseason. As a matter of fact, in individual games, sharp action frequently outweighs the public, which implies that larger odds moves will occur.
When this occurs, the move will have greater significance because it is less likely to be driven by tourists and sporadic squares.
The preseason betting restrictions are significantly lower than the regular season limitations if you are a high-roller.
Some sportsbooks set a maximum bet amount for bettors that they might accept throughout the regular season at 20 percent or even 10 percent.
Sportsbooks face additional risk in high-variance games and are always attempting to strike a balance between the possibility of boosting handle and the risk of losing.
Sportsbooks like games involving two teams that prioritize victory over almost everything else.
Preseason games have little bearing on the team or the coach, therefore it can be difficult to determine their motivation, which makes modeling the results more difficult.
There is a greater chance during the preseason for a single piece of game-related information to provide a significant betting advantage (such as a coaching staff’s strategy for starting their starting quarterback), and the oddsmakers detest nothing more than to lose the information war with bettors.
We are aware of the efficiency of the NFL regular-season side and total markets: There are many gamblers who process and wager on new information, the oddsmakers’ models are reliable, and they promptly modify lines.
Comparing the effectiveness of the regular season and preseason betting markets could be a smart study project.
Are there any systematic vulnerabilities in the preseason market that don’t exist in the regular season market because of the lower limits and increased number of professional bettors?
The average gap between closing lines and winning game margins can be used to gauge the efficiency of the market. This is known as the spread margin at times. The game margin was closer to the spread the lower the spread margin.
The NFL preseason spread margin (9.2) has actually proven to be closer in recent years than the regular season spread margin (9.5).
Do preseason games have the same level of difficulty as full season games? Variations in the number of points scored may be the cause of the smaller spread margin difference between the regular and preseason seasons.
If a pick’em is used by the oddsmaker, the spread would be smaller if the result was 42-0 as opposed to 44-0, but it would be difficult to argue that the former result indicates a significantly better spread on the game.
Additionally, sportsbooks’ golden rule is to reduce their betting limits when they feel threatened. That’s why, if you’re a bettor, I think it’s worthwhile to check into the preseason.
Preseason as Predictor
First, let’s ask a fundamental query regarding the performance of NFL teams: Do winning preseason teams carry over to winning regular season outcomes? It seems that the answer is no.
In a research conducted a few years back, writer Chad Langager examined 10 seasons of data and discovered that there was very no relationship between the winning % during the preseason and the regular season.
Naturally, though, our goal is not to forecast regular-season winning percentages. In the preseason, we’re searching for betting opportunities.
Betting NFL Head Coaches
Here’s information Betting NFL head coaches.
The NFL preseason’s most reliable spread play is based on coaching inclinations. If you were a competitive athlete, you have probably heard a coach stress the need to “practice like you play” and that being successful should become a way of life rather than a goal.
On the opposing side are the coaches who view preseason like the fans do: essentially pointless, and victories are most definitely not worth jeopardizing the health of players for.
I understand both points of view, but in all honesty, I’m just relieved that there are coaches out there who are so readily characterized.
Though they come and go, some coaches are particularly notable during the preseason.
The method is straightforward: Place a wager on winning coaches; if a coach is still in the league, place a wager against losing coaches; and increase your wager every time one type of coach faces the other.
If you’re concerned about keeping tabs on coaches and their straight-up winning %, know that preseason spreads typically don’t deviate from 4 or 5 points, meaning that the team that wins straight-up also typically wins the point spread.
It is inevitable that some new names will emerge in the coaching ranks and that some of the men on the above list will have gone away if you’re reading this book in 2020 or later. More importantly, a few of the coaches I left off my list will have amassed enough experience to demonstrate that they are either Garrett- or Zimmer-types. Do yourself a favor and check the preseason ATS record of the current coaching crop before August arrives.
It’s astonishing that the coaching perspective hasn’t been priced out of the market yet, given how frequently it is mentioned. Some pundits asserted during the 2019 preseason that the point spreads for the Harbaugh-coached Ravens and Zimmer-coached Vikings were higher than they usually would have been. Perhaps so, but they both kept winning.
Hot-seat coaches are one of the other possible coaching-related variables. There is a theory that they will try harder to win during the preseason. After all, every victory counts when you’re fighting for your position.
I listed seven “consensus” head coaches for the 2019 season, in an obviously unscientific analysis. Two of them, Garrett and Zimmer, had already been demoted, so I tossed them out. That left five coaches on the hot seat, and they went a combined 7–14 in the preseason (drum roll, please). This obviously needs more investigation.
Bet on Week 2 Losers
Preseason NFL systems are hard to come by, but this one is well-known, intuitive, and, shockingly, hasn’t been squeezed out of existence:
The NFL preseason is underway, and both teams are playing their second game of the season. One of the two teams lost their opening game completely, and the other team won it. You should bet on the point spread of the club that didn’t win last week.
According to statistics, there is a 0.0944 link between a team’s preseason and regular season winning percentages. There is no association between two variables if the values are between -0.1 and +0.1.
Betting NFL: Other Preseason Factors
Here is a list of fundamental Betting NFL elements to take into account while evaluating a preseason game:
- How much time will the starters play? Most coaches decide on their playing time schemes well in advance of the game. Seek out games where one team intends to play its starters for longer than the other; you might want to consider a gamble on the first quarter or half.
- Regarding preseason outcomes, the backup quarterback is frequently the key player.
- Examine the variations in the two teams’ overall bench depth between players other than the quarterback. It’s challenging for teams to be deep and good at the same time in the salary cap age. Look for skill position players who are on the bubble in the third and fourth preseason games. Find prop bets to capitalize on a third-string quarterback who is probably aiming for the big splash to save his skin if the team is only going to keep two quarterbacks.
- Don’t do it. Please refrain from viewing it. Practice calisthenics. Play games with your children. Give your mom a call.
Betting NFL Fundamentals
- The NFL’s wage cap, draft system, uniform schedule, and other measures to preserve parity make me think of a stock car racing league. To reward the best drivers, there are strict limits on the power of the automobiles in car racing. How much fun would it be for a pit crew to mount a jet engine on the car’s roof? That would be really enjoyable, but I’m getting off topic.
- NFL clubs are built under tight regulations, therefore there is a limited range of talent from top to bottom. This implies that top-performing teams have better strategies, technologies, processes, technology, coaching, and emergency planning, among other things.
Schedule Spot (Travel Bye Week)
It’s easy to think of an NFL team as a static roster of players who are assigned to positions and have individual statistical profiles that, when added together with the other players on the team, reveal the squad to be one giant deterministic machine.
Although making generalizations like “this team is good” and “that team is horrible” is a habit, it’s a bad habit for someone who is trying to forecast performance.
Although players make up a team, it’s crucial to keep in mind that teams operate within certain parameters. The teams they play against, their level of health, their level of rest, and other factors all affect how well they perform on the field. Though their names and jersey numbers may be the same as last week, the teams you’re watching this week aren’t quite the same.
Travel
Numerous studies have examined the impact of travel on professional football teams. A 2013 Stanford study built on earlier findings regarding the circadian advantages that west coast teams, whose body clocks were set to “afternoon,” had when playing night games against east coast teams, whose body clocks were set to “bedtime.”
Previous research has attempted to ascertain if teams crossing time zones in either direction suffer from the stress of travel.
I tried every possible twist to the data for teams traveling either way from coast to coast, but I was unable to discover a viable perspective.
That is most likely a sign that these travel-related expenses have been factored into the point spread by the betting market.
Nevertheless, wagering against Eastern Time Zone teams that are playing at any time on the west coast has produced a 34-19 spread record over the past four years. Not much to be proud of.
When the market overreacts or underreacts, you can profit from it. In a perfect world, you discover an element that no one has thought of that influences the betting results of games. Until other people begin to bring it up, bet it for profit.
When you eventually hear other gamblers discussing it, think about placing a wager on the opposing side.
Taking the Stanford study a step further, a Boston College research team under the direction of Kyle Waters attempted to isolate specific trip distance as it relates to winning rate.
They came to the conclusion that the winning percentage of NFL teams decreases by 3.5 percent for every 1,000 kilometers traveled, with the effects being greatest when the team plays outside and changes time zones.
That is a natural disadvantage for western teams. Your squad will likely spend twice as much time in the air as a team from Ohio or Pennsylvania if it is based in California, Arizona, or Nevada.
Bet on Early Season Wanderers
I didn’t want to burden you with that conversation without providing you with a framework to follow. This system considers variables related to both time and space:
It’s the first half of the NFL regular season (week 9 or fewer) AND Both the road team and the home team are headquartered in the Pacific time zone. The away team’s point spread is to be bet.
This method has a low Z-score of 2.3 and has a 42-23 (64 percent) history. It is used a few times a year. Ultimately, it is plausible that the findings of the research studies conducted by Stanford and Boston College—which indicate that winning probabilities decrease with increased travel—are accurate, and that the betting markets have completely overreacted to this occurrence by offering the visiting team lopsided point spreads.
Relax
I think that when assessing matchups, rest is a helpful extra feature. Although I believe the oddsmakers incorporate bye weeks into their models, I believe it’s beneficial to let go of assumptions about the true impact of player rest on betting results. In terms of enhancing player health, rest is probably a net benefit, and most coaches believe that having more time to prepare games is beneficial. Routine and concentration, however, are equally valuable, even though they might conflict with relaxation.
The majority of NFL games are played on the Genesis schedule, which is in reverse. Sunday work, six days of rest, and Sunday work again. Table 10-5 illustrates the abundance of rest options available, but with bye weeks in between Monday and Thursday night games, Thanksgiving, and a few of Saturday games towards the end of the season, there are plenty of options.
Rest Days in the NFL
| Rest Days before Regular Season Games | Home Team | Away Team |
| 3 | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% |
| 5 | 8.9% | 8.6% |
| 6 | 60.6% | 59.1% |
| 7 | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| 8 | 1% | 1% |
| 9 | 4.6% | 6.3% |
| 10 | 1% | 1% |
| 12 | 1% | 1% |
| 13 | 5.1% | 5.5% |
| 14 | 1% | 1% |
Bet the Curse of the Well-Rested
Observe the following when a home team plays during the second half of the season following an exceptionally extended layoff:
In week nine or above of the NFL regular season, the home team is playing after taking a break of more than eight days, and the home club has dropped its last game when betting on the away team’s point spread.
This setup has actually gone 65-28 ATS since 2012 (69 percent with a Z-score over 3) and went 10-7 in 2019. However, this approach is effective with or without a loss in the prior game. This method appeals to me, and I believe that studying rest will yield a great deal more information.
Rest Differential
In order to prevent any club from being at a significant disadvantage, the NFL goes to great lengths to match teams with comparable rest profiles. Of course, things aren’t always that simple. The distribution of rest disparity is displayed in the table below:
| Rest Differential | Frequency |
| Road team more than 3 days extra rest | 7.3% |
| Road team 1–3 days extra rest | 14.6% |
| Home team’s rest = road team’s rest | 62% |
| Home team 1–3 days extra rest | 12.3% |
| Home team more than 3 days extra rest | 5.2% |
Injuries
Games are unclear when there is injury. Higher possible result variance is associated with uncertainty. Most likely, you were previously aware of this. The most difficult thing for someone watching the sports to do is figure out whether athletes have injuries that could prevent them from playing.
According to a Football Outsiders analysis of NFL injury reports, a player is active 95% of the time when rated as Probable and only 32% of the time when rated as Questionable.
However, there are differences in how teams, general managers, and coaches disclose injuries. It may not be a significant influence, but it’s a good idea to know the team’s injury reporting history if a player who is essential to your handicap is labeled as likely.
Teams also show how well or poorly they can modify their game plan and approach in the event of a significant injury.
Despite a string of injuries, the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles prevailed in the Super Bowl, mostly due to coach Doug Pedersen’s alterations to personnel groupings, play-calling, and other aspects to maximize the abilities of the players who were still healthy.
This hurts even more as a Dallas supporter because the team has demonstrated the opposite ability in the last ten years: when important players sit, they crumble like a house of cards.
The final injury concern that astute observers keep an eye out for is that athletes will sometimes play before they have fully recovered. If you’re a precision-route wideout like Amari Cooper, going at 80 percent can make the difference between a 2- and a 9-catch day.
These three methods with skill position prop bets are my favorites:
For a player in a skill position who has missed at least two games due to a minor ailment, fade the player’s total yardage.
Keep an eye out for sudden declines in skill player performance during a victory, and the next week, fade the yards total prop.
Is it possible to be “injury prone”? And are some injuries more likely than others to re-aggravate?
Prop bets on yardage totals for skill players are often based on the assumption of full speed, but if a player has even a 10% or 15% probability of needing to leave a game, going under that total might push the bet into positive expected value area.
Weather
Although the NFL has logically started stopping games if they’re in the path of severe electrical storms, football is an all-weather sport. Three fundamental components are of interest to us when it comes to effects: temperature, wind, and precipitation.
It goes without saying that each person’s response to the weather is unique. I can recall a few well-known instances of talent players who experienced specific problems under certain circumstances.
Legendary football player Troy Aikman, who attended schools in Oklahoma and Southern California and played both high school and collegiate ball, was outspoken about his inability to hold a wet ball securely.
After analyzing thirty years’ worth of NFL statistics, data scientist Josh Mancuso came to several conclusions regarding quarterback play in inclement weather:
High wind games (20 mph or more) have the biggest detrimental effect on quarterback productivity.
Bad weather has little effect on quarterback efficiency, but it does reduce productivity metrics like yards passing and touchdown passes.
In a 2017 work about weather, a different Stanford team under the direction of Rory Houghton-Bery studied differential effects for the home and road team, and they came to some interesting conclusions.
Rain and snow usually work in favor of the home team, increasing the point disparity in a way that is statistically significant. They concluded that home teams are better accustomed to inclement weather. It makes logic to me.
Teams who play their home games outside have less home-field advantage than those that play in domes.
In inclement weather, pass-heavy offenses have an advantage over run-heavy teams—if there are still any in the NFL.
The great equalizer, wind, is not good for any team’s attacking goals. When it’s windy, wager less than the total.
Several groups have examined how a game’s temperature affects it. You may be startled to hear that cold weather has never traditionally limited the number of points scored in a game if you’ve ever attempted to throw or catch a football in bitterly cold conditions.
In fact, a number of studies have shown that adverse weather conditions are worse in severely hot weather than in cold weather.
Probably the most helpful article is one from numberFire.com from the 2017 season. Out of 256 regular season games, 20% were played in windy conditions (7–12 mph), where the average total score dropped by a point, and 15% were played in strong winds (above 12 mph), where the average total score dropped by more than 6 points. The underdog won 19 of these games and lost 11.
For a basic handicapper, wind appears to be a favorable angle, but it’s difficult to make a final determination on an angle like this without more accurate information.
The most important query is always this:
- Does the betting record show wins and losses relative to the initial total, the closing amount agreed upon, or some other total in between?
- Which wind data are we using?
- Did the wind speed at the stadium measure that?
A single vector reflecting an average direction and velocity would likely appear if you searched for wind speed data for Hot Springs, Arkansas (or any other random city) on May 2, 2010 (or any other random day). However, that data may not accurately reflect the conditions at the stadium.
Betting NFL Systems and Angles
Now in this Betting NFL guide, let’s talk about systems and angles.
I am not a fan of team-specific perspectives, as you will see from what you read in these pages. I roll my eyes (in the kindest way imaginable) when I read that the Raiders are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 east coast trips. I ignore trends if there isn’t any logical progression behind them.
But as you’ll see, I support some coaching schemes if you read the preseason portion. Long serving coaches acquire and hold traits that they then pass on to their teams.
Betting NFL: Belichick’s Slow Starts
Now in our Betting NFL guide, let’s talk about how wagering on Belichick’s slow starts is a good idea.
I realize this one is peculiar. Even if Coach Belichick has been successful in every facet of his NFL coaching career, if you’re reading this and he’s still in the game, just look at how his club has performed in late-round playoff games. In these high-stakes games, the Patriots’ slow start is simply unsettling. In ten games, the Pats have once scored a touchdown, once scored a field goal, and in eight other games, zero points in the first quarter. Yes, it is a little flimsy, but I felt compelled to bring it up.
Betting NFL: Restless on the Road
Next in this Betting NFL guide, let’s talk about resting.
An illustration of the rest paradox is this. Although it seems common sense that getting more sleep is beneficial, this is one of many instances where that isn’t the case. In the last seven years, this strategy has gone 39-15 ATS (72 percent, Z-score of 3.1). What’s more intriguing, though, is that it has an 85% winner as the first leg of a 6-point teaser, and that percentage jumps to nearly 90% when the home team gets one extra day of rest than the away team.
When the home team has at least one extra day of rest and the road team is favored in an NFL regular season game with a game total above 42 points, the home team should bet the road team’s point spread. INCLUDE a 6-point teaser for the road team.
Bet Growing Totals
Although it’s a little more complicated than I’d like, the outcomes are real: Results over the last 15 years have shown 54 overs and 25 unders (74 percent, Z-score of 3.15). I think this strategy finds a gap in the betting industry, which is why I appreciate it. The market is aware that there is a strong likelihood that both sides will score more than they did previously, but there are still enough bettors who aren’t persuaded to stick with the under. The sum isn’t quite as high as it ought to be as a result.
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Betting NFL: How to Bet on American Football, Easy Guide by YouWager Blog.