March Madness Betting History: How to Build A Winning Bracket

By reviewing the March Madness Betting history, you can have a better idea of how to build a winning bracket.

Impossible Odds: Perfect Bracket

You’re completely mistaken if you believe you may win the March Madness tournament by having the ideal bracket. Since it has never been done before and probably never will be, you are setting yourself up for a huge letdown.

If you fill out your bracket at random, your chances of hitting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808; if you know the sport, your chances are 1 in 120,200,000,000.

To put that into perspective, your odds of being struck by lightning are 1 in 1,000,000, but your chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 250,000,000.

You’re not hitting a flawless bracket, that much is true. Kevin, your pal who promises to do it this year, isn’t either.

Not So Favorite

Do you think the clear favorite to win the event should win it? You now have all the details you need to know about the pre-tournament favorite. Not every time do they succeed.

Last Four Winners
Tournament Winner (Odds) Favorite (Odds)
2022 Kansas (+900) Gonzaga (+300)
2021 Baylor (+500) Gonzaga (+200)
2019 Virginia (+675) Duke (+255)
2018 Villanova (+570) Villanova

**COVID-19 forced the cancellation of the 2020 competition.

Though there was no upset quite like UConn’s in 2014, the favorite entering March Madness has only won four of the last ten tournaments. Villanova won the title last year.

In the Final Four, the seventh-seeded team from the East defeated South No. 1 seed Florida 63-53, after which they defeated eighth-seeded Kentucky 60-54 to win the championship. They had already defeated second-seeded Villanova, third-seeded Iowa State, and fourth-seeded Michigan. That was an incredible run for a team ranked seventh.

Big First-Round Upsets

March Madness, the season of upsets, is arrived. Make sure there are a few of them in your bracket. When making your bracket, though, you shouldn’t pick a No. 16 seed to upset a No. 1 seed in the opening round. It has only happened once in the tournament’s history. UMBC upset #1-ranked Virginia 74–54 in that 2018 game.

It might be more successful to predict that a 2 seed will lose against a 15 seed. A No. 15 seed has won the first round against a No. 2 seed ten times in the tournament’s history. It also happened in the previous two competitions.

In 2021, Saint Peter’s defeated Kentucky 85–79, while Ohio State fell to Oral Roberts 75–72.

Look To The South

If you begin creating your bracket by determining which of the four locations has the simplest path, take this into consideration: In the past 13 years, the South Region has produced the champion eight times, and in the past seven, five times.

The ten prior champions and the corresponding regions are listed below:

Last Four Winners
Year School Region
2022 Kansas Midwest
2021 Baylor South
2019 Virginia South
2018 Villanova East

Chalk It Up!

Perhaps you could start that bracket with the teams seeded first, rather than based it on the four regions. If this is how you’re filling out your bracket, take notice that starting at the No. 3 seed and below, especially if it’s the fifth seed, the probability of making it to the championship game rapidly decreases. As the fifth seed, no one has ever won a national championship.

Winners By Seed
Seed Number Of Championships Championship Game Final Four Appearances
1 24 36 59
2 5 12 30
3 4 12 17
4 1 3 13
5 0 3 7
6 1 2 3
7 1 1 3
8 1 3 5

For that bracket, you’ll want a chalky game and a winner. Again, though, avoid those five seeds. There has been a significant decline in the amount of Final Four appearances from 17 for 4 seeds to 7 for 5 seeds.

Good Luck

When creating your bracket for this year’s event, keep all of this in mind. Likewise, good fortune to you. It will be necessary if you hope to succeed in any capacity.

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