Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction: Who Will Win Friday Night?

Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction: Get Atlanta vs Miami odds, spread, player props, same game parlay and the best bet for Friday.

Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction: Who Will Win Today?

The Atlanta Falcons are the best bet to beat the Miami Dolphins on Friday night, with Atlanta laying 3.5 points on the road at Hard Rock Stadium. The Falcons opened as 3-point favorites before the line moved to Atlanta -3.5, signaling additional market support for the road team.

The biggest reason to favor Atlanta is the difference in preseason strategy. Kevin Stefanski has confirmed that his Falcons starters will play, while Miami has continued to sit its starters and rely heavily on backup rotations.

That creates a significant talent advantage for Atlanta, particularly with Tua Tagovailoa expected to start against his former team.

Miami enters the game 0-2 in the preseason, while Atlanta has a much stronger personnel situation heading into Friday’s finale.

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5

A Summary

The Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction is heavily influenced by one factor: Atlanta plans to play its starters while Miami plans to continue evaluating its backups.

Kevin Stefanski confirmed that Atlanta’s starters will play Friday because the Falcons did not get meaningful game reps during the previous preseason week after holding joint practices with Indianapolis.

That means this will be an actual preseason tune-up for Atlanta’s top players.

Miami’s approach has been completely different.

Jeff Hafley has consistently rested his starters during the preseason, instead using players such as Malik Willis and other backups to evaluate the depth chart. The Dolphins are 0-2 entering Friday’s finale and have struggled to generate consistent offense.

The quarterback matchup makes the situation even more interesting.

Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start for Atlanta in his return to Hard Rock Stadium, where he spent his previous NFL tenure. Miami released Tagovailoa during the offseason, creating an obvious emotional storyline around Friday’s game.

Atlanta also has a defensive advantage. The Falcons recorded an NFL-best 13 red-zone sacks in 2025, demonstrating an ability to create pressure in scoring territory.

With Atlanta’s starters facing Miami’s backups for a significant portion of the game, the 3.5-point spread is justified.

Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -3.5

Best Total Bet: Under 36.5

Projected Winner: Atlanta Falcons

Table of Contents

Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction

Falcons vs Dolphins Odds

What Is the Point Spread in NFL Betting?

Falcons vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay

Falcons vs Dolphins Player Props

Why the Falcons Are Favored

Atlanta’s Starter Advantage

Tua Tagovailoa Returns to Miami

Miami Dolphins Preseason Outlook

Atlanta Falcons Preseason Outlook

Falcons Defensive Advantage

Miami’s Roster Turnover

Falcons vs Dolphins Follow-Up Questions

Falcons vs Dolphins FAQ

Final Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction

Falcons vs Dolphins Odds

The Falcons vs Dolphins odds currently have Atlanta as a 3.5-point road favorite with a game total of 36.5 points.

The Falcons opened at -3, and the spread has moved to -3.5.

That half-point movement is meaningful because the market is already accounting for the difference in expected personnel.

Betting Market | Current Number
Atlanta Falcons | -3.5
Miami Dolphins | +3.5
Game Total | 36.5
Favorite | Atlanta Falcons
Location | Hard Rock Stadium
Kickoff | 7:00 PM ET
Date | Friday, August 28, 2026
Recommended Side | Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The most important factor behind the number is not simply Atlanta’s preseason record.

It is the expected playing-time distribution.

Atlanta’s starters are expected to take the field.

Miami’s starters are expected to remain on the sideline.

That creates a substantial difference in personnel quality.

What Is the Point Spread in NFL Betting?

The NFL point spread represents the expected margin between two teams, with the favorite needing to win by more than the listed number for a spread wager to cover.

For example, Atlanta at -3.5 must win by at least four points for an Atlanta -3.5 wager to win.

Miami +3.5 covers if the Dolphins win outright or lose by three points or fewer.

The half-point eliminates the possibility of a three-point push.

Falcons vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay

A Falcons vs Dolphins same game parlay should be built around the confirmed difference in playing-time plans.

The most logical components are:

Atlanta Falcons -3.5

Under 36.5 points

A player prop involving a confirmed Atlanta starter

The Atlanta spread is the strongest component.

The Falcons have a clear personnel advantage because their starters are expected to play meaningful snaps.

The total is more complicated.

Atlanta’s starters should improve the offensive quality of the game, but Miami’s backup quarterbacks have struggled to consistently move the football. That creates a plausible path toward a relatively low-scoring game.

The risk with the Under is that Atlanta’s starters could produce several efficient scoring drives before leaving.

The risk with Atlanta -3.5 is that the Falcons’ backups could struggle after the starters exit and allow Miami to make a late comeback.

For that reason, bettors should pay close attention to expected playing time before building a larger same game parlay.

Falcons vs Dolphins Player Props

The Falcons vs Dolphins player props market is particularly interesting because Atlanta has confirmed that its starters will play.

That gives bettors more confidence in Atlanta player props than would normally exist in a preseason finale.

Still, exact snap counts remain difficult to predict.

Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa is the most interesting player prop target in this matchup.

His return to Miami provides both a football and emotional storyline.

He will be playing against the organization that released him during the offseason.

That makes his performance one of the biggest storylines of Friday’s game.

Tua also has something to prove in Atlanta’s quarterback competition.

He has spent the preseason competing with Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons’ starting job, and an impressive performance against his former team would strengthen his case.

If sportsbooks post reasonable passing-yard or touchdown props, Tua could be one of the more attractive individual players to monitor.

However, bettors should still verify his projected snap count before betting an Over.

Michael Penix Jr. Player Props

Penix’s playing time is less certain.

If Tua receives the majority of the meaningful starter reps, Penix may not get enough opportunities to make standard passing props attractive.

The better approach is to wait for official lineup information and monitor the market.

Miami Quarterback Props

Miami’s quarterback situation is less appealing from a betting perspective.

Malik Willis has handled substantial preseason work, but Miami’s offense has not consistently produced.

If Miami continues its backup-heavy approach, opposing defensive pressure could create problems.

Passing-yard Unders may have appeal depending on the number and expected playing time, but preseason quarterback props are inherently volatile.

Why Are the Falcons Favored Over the Dolphins?

The Atlanta Falcons are favored over the Miami Dolphins primarily because Atlanta has confirmed that its starters will play while Miami is expected to continue sitting its top players.

That is a major advantage.

In a regular-season game, a 3.5-point road spread might require extensive analysis of injuries, efficiency and matchup statistics.

In a preseason finale, playing-time decisions can overwhelm many of those variables.

Atlanta knows it needs meaningful game repetitions before the regular season.

Miami has apparently prioritized roster evaluation.

The result is a game where Atlanta’s top unit could face Miami’s second- and third-string players.

That is precisely the type of situation where a short road favorite can offer value.

Atlanta’s Starter Advantage

The Falcons did not receive meaningful game reps from their starters during the previous preseason week because of their joint practices with Indianapolis.

Kevin Stefanski therefore decided to use Friday’s game as the opportunity to get those players on the field.

That is important because the Falcons are not treating the finale simply as an evaluation exercise.

They are treating it as a preparation game.

The distinction matters.

Miami has spent the preseason evaluating its depth chart.

Atlanta is attempting to prepare its first-team unit for the regular season.

That gives the Falcons an immediate advantage in the opening stages of the game.

If Atlanta can build a lead before its starters leave, the Dolphins will then have to overcome that deficit with their backup-heavy rotation.

That is a difficult proposition.

Tua Tagovailoa Returns to Miami

The Tua Tagovailoa return to Miami is one of the biggest storylines surrounding this preseason matchup.

Tagovailoa spent his previous NFL career with the Dolphins before Miami released him during the offseason.

According to the supplied matchup information, Miami absorbed $99.2 million in dead cap over the next two seasons as part of the move.

Now Tagovailoa returns to Hard Rock Stadium wearing an Atlanta Falcons uniform.

That creates an obvious emotional component.

However, bettors should be careful not to overvalue revenge narratives.

The better argument is that Tua has legitimate football reasons to perform well.

He is competing with Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta’s quarterback role.

He is playing against his former team.

He is expected to receive meaningful preseason snaps.

And he has an opportunity to demonstrate his value in front of the fans who watched his Miami tenure end.

Those factors make the situation more compelling than a generic revenge game.

Miami Dolphins Preseason Outlook

Miami enters the finale 0-2 in the preseason.

The Dolphins lost 20-7 to Washington in Week 1 and then suffered another loss in Week 2.

The primary issue has been offensive consistency.

Miami has spent much of the preseason playing its backup rotations, with Malik Willis handling significant quarterback responsibilities.

That approach makes sense from a roster-building perspective.

The Dolphins have undergone substantial personnel changes, and the preseason provides an opportunity to evaluate players fighting for roster spots.

But it is less attractive from a betting perspective when the opponent is actively playing its starters.

Miami’s 0-2 record is therefore not the sole reason to fade the Dolphins.

The more important issue is who will be on the field Friday night.

Atlanta Falcons Preseason Outlook

Atlanta enters the game with a fundamentally different objective.

The Falcons did not receive meaningful game action from their starters during the previous preseason week because of joint practices with Indianapolis.

Stefanski wants to correct that before the regular season begins.

That means Atlanta’s top players are expected to receive actual game reps Friday.

The Falcons also have a defensive unit with a particularly interesting statistic.

Atlanta recorded 13 red-zone sacks in 2025, the most in the NFL.

That ability to create pressure near the goal line can be especially valuable against backup quarterbacks.

Backup quarterbacks are more likely to hold the ball too long, struggle to recognize disguised pressure and make mistakes under pressure.

If Atlanta’s defensive starters can exploit those weaknesses, Miami could struggle to convert promising drives into touchdowns.

Falcons Defensive Advantage

The Atlanta Falcons defense provides another reason to like the road team.

The Falcons’ 13 red-zone sacks in 2025 led the NFL.

That is more than a random preseason statistic.

It demonstrates that Atlanta has been capable of creating pressure when opposing offenses are closest to scoring.

Miami’s backup quarterbacks face a difficult assignment if Atlanta’s first-team defense receives extended playing time.

A few negative plays can completely change a preseason possession.

A sack can move an offense out of field-goal range.

A turnover can produce a short field.

A defensive stop can create another possession for the Falcons’ starting offense.

Those small advantages can quickly turn a three-point spread into a comfortable margin.

Miami’s Massive Roster Turnover

Another factor working against Miami is roster continuity.

The Dolphins went through what was described in the supplied analysis as a “massive purge” during the offseason, adding approximately two draft classes’ worth of new players through 13 total picks.

That level of roster turnover can create cohesion issues.

Preseason games are often where those problems become most visible.

Players are learning terminology.

Backups are playing with teammates they may not have spent much time with.

Communication errors become more common.

And inexperienced quarterbacks can struggle when the offensive line, receivers and backs are not operating on the same page.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is using its starters to build continuity before the regular season.

That is another subtle advantage for the Falcons.

Is the Under 36.5 a Good Bet?

The Under 36.5 deserves consideration.

Miami’s backup quarterbacks have not generated much offensive production during the preseason.

Atlanta’s starters should improve the offensive quality, but preseason game plans remain relatively conservative compared with regular-season football.

Stefanski’s objective is not necessarily to run an aggressive, regular-season playbook.

He wants meaningful repetitions.

Miami’s offense could also struggle against Atlanta’s defensive pressure.

The biggest concern for the Under is Atlanta’s starting offense.

If Tua and the first-team unit score quickly and efficiently, they could put Miami in a difficult position.

A late-game collapse or defensive touchdown could also push the total over.

Therefore, while Under 36.5 has merit, the spread remains the stronger wager.

Falcons vs Dolphins Follow-Up Questions

Who Is Favored in Falcons vs Dolphins?

The Atlanta Falcons are 3.5-point road favorites over the Miami Dolphins.

Why Are the Falcons Favored?

Atlanta’s starters are expected to play meaningful snaps, while Miami has continued to sit its starters during the preseason.

Is Tua Tagovailoa Playing Against Miami?

Yes. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start for Atlanta in his return to Hard Rock Stadium.

Why Is Tua Starting for Atlanta?

Kevin Stefanski wants his starters to receive meaningful game repetitions after Atlanta’s joint practices prevented the first-team unit from getting substantial preseason action the previous week.

What Is the Falcons vs Dolphins Total?

The game total is 36.5 points.

Is Atlanta -3.5 a Good Bet?

Yes. Atlanta -3.5 is the preferred side because of the significant difference in expected personnel and playing-time plans.

Is Miami 0-2 in the Preseason?

Yes. Miami enters the preseason finale with an 0-2 record.

Will Miami Play Its Starters?

Miami is expected to continue its preseason approach of resting its starters and evaluating its backup roster.

Does Tua Have an Advantage Against His Former Team?

The emotional element is obvious, but the more important betting factor is that Tua is expected to receive meaningful game reps while competing for Atlanta’s quarterback position.

Should I Bet the Over or Under?

The Under 36.5 has a reasonable case because Miami’s backup offense has struggled and Atlanta is unlikely to use its full regular-season playbook. However, Atlanta -3.5 is the preferred wager.

Falcons vs Dolphins FAQ

1. Who will win Falcons vs Dolphins?

The Atlanta Falcons are the pick to win Friday’s preseason finale at Hard Rock Stadium.

2. What is the Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction?

The Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction favors Atlanta because the Falcons are expected to play their starters while Miami continues to use backups.

3. What is the Falcons vs Dolphins spread?

Atlanta is currently a 3.5-point road favorite after opening at -3.

4. What is the Falcons vs Dolphins over/under?

The total is 36.5 points.

5. Is Atlanta -3.5 the best bet?

Yes. Atlanta -3.5 is the preferred betting option because of the significant difference in expected personnel.

6. Will Tua Tagovailoa play against the Dolphins?

Yes. Tagovailoa is expected to start for Atlanta in his return to Miami.

7. Why is Tua Tagovailoa playing in the preseason finale?

Atlanta wants its starters to receive meaningful game repetitions before the regular season, and Tua is competing for his position with Michael Penix Jr.

8. What is Miami’s preseason record?

The Dolphins enter Friday’s game 0-2 in the preseason.

9. Does Atlanta have a strong defense?

Atlanta recorded 13 red-zone sacks in 2025, the most in the NFL, giving the Falcons an important matchup advantage against Miami’s backup quarterbacks.

10. What is the best Falcons vs Dolphins bet?

The best bet is Atlanta Falcons -3.5. The Under 36.5 is a secondary option.

Final Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction

The Falcons vs Dolphins Preseason Betting Prediction ultimately comes down to a significant difference in approach.

Atlanta is treating Friday’s game as an opportunity to get its starters meaningful game repetitions.

Miami is treating the preseason finale as another opportunity to evaluate its depth.

That creates a major personnel advantage for Atlanta.

Kevin Stefanski has already confirmed that his starters will play. Tua Tagovailoa will get his opportunity to face the organization that released him, while also continuing his competition with Michael Penix Jr.

Miami, meanwhile, has remained committed to its backup-heavy preseason strategy.

The Dolphins are 0-2, and their backup quarterbacks have struggled to consistently move the offense.

Atlanta’s defensive strength makes that even more concerning. The Falcons led the NFL with 13 red-zone sacks in 2025, and that pressure can be especially disruptive against inexperienced quarterbacks.

The market opened Atlanta at -3 and has moved to -3.5, providing additional evidence that bettors have recognized the difference in expected personnel.

The total has remained at 36.5, and there is a legitimate argument for the Under.

But the side is cleaner.

Atlanta’s starters versus Miami’s backups is the fundamental mismatch that drives this handicap.

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3.5

Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -3.5

Secondary Bet: Under 36.5

Prediction: Atlanta wins and covers at Hard Rock Stadium.