Florida vs Kentucky Prediction and Pick, Week 11. Place a bet on this CFB football game with the best odds.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Trends

Over the past seven games, Florida has a record of 2-5 against the spread.

Ten of Florida’s most recent twelve games have resulted in the total going UNDER.

Over the past seven games, Florida has a record of 2-5 against the spread.

The over/under record for Florida’s last eight games versus Kentucky is 1-6-1.

The last twenty games that Florida has played versus Kentucky have resulted in a 16-4 record for the home team.

Over the course of its previous six games played away from home, Florida has a record of 1-5 against the spread.

In the last 15 games that Florida has played against Kentucky on the road, the team has a head-to-head record of 13-2.

During the last seven games that Florida has played against teams from the Southeastern Conference, the total has been UNDER in five of those games.

Versus the spread, Florida has a perfect record of 5-0 in its last five games versus teams that are in the East Division.

After six games played in November, Florida has a record of 5-1 against the spread.

Over the past nine games, Kentucky has a record of 3-6 against the spread.

Five of Kentucky’s most recent seven games have resulted in the total going over.

In its last five games, Kentucky has a record of 1-4 against the spread.

In its last 16 games played at home, Kentucky has a winning percentage of 5-11.

Over the course of its previous 15 home games versus Florida, Kentucky has a record of 2-13 against the spread.

During the last six games that Kentucky has played against teams from the Southeastern conference, the total has been over in four of those games.

Five of Kentucky’s most recent five games against opponents from the East Division division have resulted in the total going over the point spread.

After six games played in November, Kentucky has a record of 5-1 against the spread.

In its last six games played in week 11, Kentucky has a head-to-head record of 0-6.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

Now we have the Florida vs Kentucky Prediction for both teams.

The Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats meet in Week 11 for what has become one of the SEC East’s most underrated rivalries. Florida enters this matchup looking to steady the ship after a rocky stretch marked by inconsistency on both sides of the ball. The Gators have been solid defensively, holding opponents to just over 20 points per game, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm, averaging only 22.1 points and ranking near the bottom nationally in several offensive metrics. Trends also tell an interesting story: Florida has gone just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games and has seen the UNDER hit in 10 of their last 12 contests. Historically, the Gators have dominated Kentucky, winning 13 of the last 15 meetings in Lexington, but recent seasons have seen the gap narrow considerably. Still, Florida’s tendency to play low-scoring games and control time of possession could be a major factor in this year’s matchup. With both teams fighting for bowl positioning and SEC pride, expect a physical, grind-it-out contest that hinges on turnovers and red zone execution.

For Florida, the key lies in unlocking more consistency from an offense that has struggled to move the ball effectively against quality defenses. The Gators’ attack ranks just 108th in scoring and 105th in rushing yards, a surprising dip for a program that has long prided itself on athleticism in the backfield. Quarterback play has been serviceable but far from explosive, as Florida averages just 226 passing yards per game and a pedestrian 5.47 yards per play. The defense, however, has kept them competitive, particularly against the run where they’re allowing just 120 yards per game — good for 35th nationally. That unit will be counted on heavily to contain a Kentucky offense that prefers to establish tempo and control possession. Florida’s record against SEC East opponents (5-0 ATS in their last five) suggests that they rise to the occasion in divisional matchups, and their strong track record in November games (5-1 ATS) adds another layer of confidence. If they can avoid turnovers — which have been a recurring issue — and sustain drives behind their improving time-of-possession numbers, the Gators have a real chance to leave Lexington with a much-needed victory.

Kentucky, meanwhile, has hit a midseason skid after a promising start, and their numbers paint a picture of a team struggling to find balance. The Wildcats have lost four of their last five and are just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine. Defensively, Kentucky has regressed from its usual standard, allowing nearly 27 points per game and ranking outside the top 80 in total defense. The offense hasn’t done much to help, sitting 103rd in scoring and averaging only 5.06 yards per play. However, the Wildcats remain dangerous at home, where they can feed off the energy of the crowd and have been known to pull off upsets against ranked opponents. They’ll look to lean on their run game, which averages nearly 145 yards per contest, to take some pressure off their passing attack. The problem is that Florida’s defensive front is disciplined and could limit those lanes early. Kentucky’s recent struggles in Week 11 games (0-6 in their last six) and poor historical performance against Florida at home (2-13 ATS in the last 15) suggest an uphill battle. Unless Kentucky finds a spark offensively and limits Florida’s early momentum, this could be another frustrating night for the Wildcats in Lexington.

Our CFB Week 11 Pick: FLORIDA

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Head to Head

Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline

10/19/24

@FLA

FLA 48-20

FLA+1.5

O44.5

FLA+104

9/30/23

@KEN

KEN 33-14

KEN-3.5

U47.5

KEN-125

9/10/22

@FLA

KEN 26-16

FLA-4.0

U51.5

FLA-240

10/02/21

@KEN

KEN 20-13

KEN+8.5

U55

KEN+260

11/28/20

@FLA

FLA 34-10

FLA-23.5

U61

FLA-2400

9/14/19

@KEN

FLA 29-21

KEN+9.5

O46

KEN+275

9/08/18

@FLA

KEN 27-16

NL

NL

NL

9/23/17

@KEN

FLA 28-27

NL

NL

NL

9/10/16

@FLA

FLA 45-7

NL

NL

NL

9/19/15

@KEN

FLA 14-9

NL

NL

NL

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Florida Last 10 Games

Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline

11/01/25

UGA

L 24-20

W+9.5

U51.5

L+250

10/18/25

MSST

W 23-21

L-11.5

U51.5

W-420

10/11/25

@TXAM

L 34-17

L+9.5

O44.5

L+255

10/04/25

TEX

W 29-21

W+7.5

U53.5

W+184

9/20/25

@MFL

L 26-7

L+5.5

U55.5

L+132

9/13/25

@LSU

L 20-10

L+7.5

U54.5

L+190

9/06/25

USF

L 18-16

L-18.5

U52.5

L-1050

8/30/25

LIUCWP

W 55-0

W-44.5

O54.5

W-20000

12/20/24

TUL

W 33-8

W-11.5

U50.5

W-455

11/30/24

@FSU

W 31-11

W+12.5

U49.5

W+340

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky Last 10 Games

Date | Opponent | Score | Spread | Total | Moneyline

11/01/25

@AUB

W 10-3

W+10.5

U46.5

W+280

10/25/25

TEN

L 56-34

L+9.5

O54.5

L+260

10/18/25

TEX

L 16-13

W+13.5

U44.5

L+385

10/04/25

@UGA

L 35-14

L+20.5

U50.5

L+1060

9/27/25

@SC

L 35-13

L+6.5

O45.5

L+126

9/13/25

EMC

W 48-23

W-24.5

O45.5

W-4500

9/06/25

MIS

L 30-23

W+9.5

U54.5

L+330

8/30/25

TOL

W 24-16

L-11.5

U48.5

W-410

11/30/24

LOU

L 41-14

L+1.0

O48.5

L-110

11/23/24

@TEX

L 31-14

W+21.0

U46.5

L+1000

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Florida Offense

Overall

FLA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UK Defense
22.13 | 108 | Points Scored | 86 | 26.75
226.25 | 74 | Passing Yards | 94 | 236.75
126.50 | 105 | Rushing Yards | 44 | 130.13
30:58 | 41 | Time on Field | 24 | 27:57
64.50 | 97 | Number of Plays | 74 | 66.63
5.47 | 88 | Yards Per Play | 76 | 5.51

Scoring

FLA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UK Defense
22.13 | 108 | Points Scored | 86 | 26.75
7.13 | 48 | First Quarter | 79 | 5.63
7.00 | 94 | Second Quarter | 120 | 10.50
4.63 | 99 | Third Quarter | 60 | 5.13
3.38 | 128 | Fourth Quarter | 44 | 5.13

Passing

FLA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UK Defense
226.25 | 74 | Passing Yards | 94 | 236.75
33.00 | 43 | Pass Attempts | 45 | 29.13
21.50 | 38 | Pass Completions | 38 | 17.25
1.75 | 65 | Sacks | 46 | 2.25
9.38 | 98 | Sack Yards | 109 | 18.00
10.52 | 110 | Yards Per Pass | 130 | 13.72

Rushing

FLA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UK Defense
126.50 | 105 | Rushing Yards | 44 | 130.13
31.50 | 115 | Rush Attempts | 91 | 37.50
4.02 | 87 | Yards Per Rush | 31 | 3.47

Turn Overs

FLA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UK Defense
1.13 | 125 | Interceptions | 51 | 0.88
1.25 | 93 | Fumbles | 130 | 0.50
0.38 | 37 | Fumbles Lost | 132 | 0.13
1.50 | 98 | Total Turnovers | 101 | 1.00
5.75 | 46 | Penalties | 45 | 6.75
49.25 | 42 | Penalty Yards | 39 | 59.88

Drives & Special Teams

FLA Offense | Off. Rank | Stat | Def. Rank | UK Defense
30:58 | 41 | Time on Field | 24 | 27:57
64.50 | 97 | Number of Plays | 74 | 66.63
5.47 | 88 | Yards Per Play | 76 | 5.51
4.63 | 93 | Punts | 78 | 4.25
44.58 | 41 | Punt Average | 54 | 42.15
45.88 | 97 | Return Yards | 70 | 48.00

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction: Kentucky Offense

Overall

FLA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UK Offense
20.50 | 32 | Points Scored | 103 | 22.38
220.25 | 70 | Passing Yards | 95 | 201.25
120.25 | 35 | Rushing Yards | 81 | 144.88
29:01 | 43 | Time on Field | 23 | 32:02
63.75 | 36 | Number of Plays | 47 | 68.38
5.34 | 60 | Yards Per Play | 111 | 5.06

Scoring

FLA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UK Offense
20.50 | 32 | Points Scored | 103 | 22.38
4.38 | 45 | First Quarter | 82 | 5.63
5.25 | 29 | Second Quarter | 110 | 5.88
4.13 | 43 | Third Quarter | 104 | 4.50
6.75 | 76 | Fourth Quarter | 76 | 6.38

Passing

FLA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UK Offense
220.25 | 70 | Passing Yards | 95 | 201.25
28.38 | 35 | Pass Attempts | 71 | 30.38
17.00 | 32 | Pass Completions | 85 | 18.50
1.75 | 90 | Sacks | 108 | 2.38
10.25 | 30 | Sack Yards | 49 | 13.75
12.96 | 118 | Yards Per Pass | 96 | 10.88

Rushing

FLA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UK Offense
120.25 | 35 | Rushing Yards | 81 | 144.88
35.38 | 71 | Rush Attempts | 43 | 38.00
3.40 | 27 | Yards Per Rush | 105 | 3.81

Turn Overs

FLA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UK Offense
0.88 | 49 | Interceptions | 109 | 1.00
0.63 | 122 | Fumbles | 126 | 1.63
0.38 | 87 | Fumbles Lost | 92 | 0.63
1.25 | 66 | Total Turnovers | 112 | 1.63
7.63 | 16 | Penalties | 35 | 5.25
62.25 | 31 | Penalty Yards | 23 | 42.88

Drives & Special Teams

FLA Defense | Def. Rank | Stat | Off. Rank | UK Offense
29:01 | 43 | Time on Field | 23 | 32:02
63.75 | 36 | Number of Plays | 47 | 68.38
5.34 | 60 | Yards Per Play | 111 | 5.06
5.75 | 11 | Punts | 89 | 4.50
44.94 | 121 | Punt Average | 42 | 44.53
37.63 | 34 | Return Yards | 106 | 41.00

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Florida vs Kentucky Prediction and Pick, Week 11, by YouWager.lv.