Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Fight Analysis

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Fight Analysis

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction favors Jackson to use his massive reach advantage and cleaner striking to earn a decision victory.

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction analysis points toward Jackson controlling distance, limiting Simón’s wrestling and winning the more effective striking exchanges.

Montel Jackson and Ricky Simón meet in a fascinating bantamweight rematch at UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, 2026, at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. UFC confirms the matchup on Saturday’s card, while the current betting market has Jackson installed as a significant favorite.

The fight also carries an interesting historical angle: Simón defeated Jackson by unanimous decision in Jackson’s UFC debut at UFC 227 in August 2018. More than eight years later, they meet again with both fighters far more experienced.

Current market averages have Jackson around -205 to -210 and Simón around +170 to +177, although prices vary by sportsbook.

Our preferred side is Montel Jackson, with Jackson by decision offering the more attractive method-of-victory angle.

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction: Fight Overview

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction comes down to whether Simón can consistently get inside Jackson’s enormous striking range and turn the rematch into a wrestling-heavy contest.

Jackson owns some exceptional physical advantages for the bantamweight division.

He stands 5-foot-10 with a 75.5-inch reach.

Simón is 5-foot-6 with a 69-inch reach.

That gives Jackson approximately four inches in height and more than six inches in reach.

Those numbers matter.

Simón’s game is built around pressure, wrestling and making opponents work. He averages 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him considerably more wrestling volume than most bantamweights.

Jackson’s job is therefore straightforward.

Keep Simón outside.

Punish his entries.

Make him shoot from too far away.

Force him to absorb damage every time he attempts to close the distance.

If Jackson consistently does those things, this rematch should look very different from their first meeting.

UFC Vegas 121 Fight Details

Fight Detail	Information
Fight	Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón
Division	Bantamweight
Event	UFC Vegas 121
Date	September 26, 2026
Venue	Meta APEX
Location	Las Vegas, Nevada
Jackson Record	15-4
Simón Record	22-7-1
Jackson Height	5’10”
Simón Height	5’6″
Jackson Reach	75.5″
Simón Reach	69″
Jackson Odds	Around -205/-210
Simón Odds	Around +170/+177

UFC Vegas 121 is headlined by Raul Rosas Jr. against Raoni Barcelos and takes place Saturday at the Meta APEX.

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Odds

The Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction market clearly favors Jackson.

Current average pricing is approximately:

Montel Jackson: -207

Ricky Simón: +173

One current odds comparison lists Jackson at an average -207 across 24 sportsbooks, with Simón around +173. The same comparison shows YouWager at approximately Jackson -210 / Simón +177 at the time of writing.

Another fight preview lists the opening matchup around Jackson -205 / Simón +173.

Jackson therefore needs to win this fight roughly two-thirds of the time for a price around -200 to make sense.

That’s an important consideration.

We favor Jackson.

But there is a significant difference between identifying the likely winner and identifying betting value.

At -200 or slightly worse, Jackson’s moneyline is playable but expensive.

That makes his decision prop particularly interesting.

Montel Jackson Fighter Analysis

Jackson enters UFC Vegas 121 with a 15-4 professional record.

The 34-year-old southpaw has eight knockout victories, one submission victory and six decision wins. UFC lists seven first-round finishes on his résumé.

His physical dimensions immediately stand out.

Jackson is unusually long for bantamweight.

At 5-foot-10 with a 75.5-inch reach, he possesses dimensions more commonly associated with fighters competing multiple weight classes above 135 pounds.

That length creates opportunities everywhere.

Jackson can touch opponents before they reach him.

He can intercept aggressive entries.

He can make opponents shoot takedowns from unfavorable distances.

And he can force shorter fighters to take risks simply to enter striking range.

Against Simón, those advantages become central to the handicap.

Montel Jackson Striking Analysis

Jackson lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.40.

That second number is particularly impressive.

His significant-strike defense is listed at 60%, while his knockdown average sits at 1.36 per 15 minutes.

Those statistics tell an important story.

Jackson doesn’t need enormous striking volume to win exchanges.

He is efficient.

He limits incoming damage.

And he carries legitimate power.

Simón lands almost exactly the same volume at 3.03 significant strikes per minute.

But Simón absorbs 3.90 significant strikes per minute.

That’s a huge difference.

Jackson absorbs 1.40.

Simón absorbs 3.90.

In a fight where both men land roughly three significant strikes per minute, defensive efficiency becomes extremely important.

That favors Jackson.

Jackson’s Reach Advantage Could Decide the Fight

The six-plus-inch reach difference may be the single biggest physical advantage in this matchup.

Jackson owns a 75.5-inch reach.

Simón owns a 69-inch reach.

Simón cannot comfortably remain at Jackson’s preferred distance.

He has to enter.

Every entry creates an opportunity for Jackson.

Straight left hands.

Jabs.

Counters.

Knees.

Uppercuts.

Even if those strikes don’t produce a knockout, they can make Simón increasingly hesitant.

That matters because hesitation hurts a pressure wrestler.

Simón’s game works best when he’s constantly forcing opponents backward.

Jackson wants to make him pay for every step forward.

Montel Jackson Power Advantage

Jackson’s finishing numbers also deserve attention.

Eight of his 15 professional victories have come by knockout or TKO. UFC credits him with a 53% knockout rate among his wins and seven first-round finishes.

That power changes how Simón must approach his wrestling.

He cannot recklessly crash distance.

A poorly timed entry could result in a counter.

Jackson’s length makes uppercuts and knees particularly dangerous when shorter opponents change levels.

This doesn’t mean we’re predicting a knockout.

In fact, our preferred outcome is Jackson by decision.

But Jackson’s power makes his striking advantage more meaningful because Simón must respect every exchange.

Montel Jackson Wrestling

Jackson isn’t simply a striker.

UFC lists him at 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.

That creates an interesting wrinkle.

Simón is clearly the higher-volume wrestler, but Jackson is capable of initiating grappling exchanges himself.

More importantly, Jackson has the physical length to create difficult scrambles.

His long limbs can help him frame, create separation and attack from unusual positions.

He probably shouldn’t voluntarily turn this into a wrestling contest.

But his grappling ability gives him another layer if Simón forces those exchanges.

Ricky Simón Fighter Analysis

Simón enters the rematch with a 22-7-1 professional record.

The 34-year-old has seven knockout wins, four submission victories and 11 decisions. UFC lists seven first-round finishes across his career.

Simón has spent years competing against strong bantamweight opposition.

His UFC résumé includes fights against Rob Font, Urijah Faber, Song Yadong, Mario Bautista, Vinicius Oliveira, Raoni Barcelos and Adrian Yanez.

He also owns something no amount of statistical analysis can erase:

A victory over Jackson.

Simón defeated Jackson by unanimous decision at UFC 227 in August 2018.

That gives the underdog an obvious psychological and tactical reference point.

He’s already solved this matchup once.

The question is whether the same approach still works eight years later.

Ricky Simón Wrestling Analysis

Wrestling remains Simón’s clearest path to victory.

He averages an impressive 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes.

That’s substantially higher than Jackson’s 2.71.

Simón also owns 77% takedown defense, demonstrating that he’s difficult to control with wrestling himself.

This fight becomes considerably more competitive if Simón repeatedly gets inside Jackson’s reach.

He doesn’t necessarily need to dominate Jackson on the ground.

He needs to disrupt him.

Push Jackson backward.

Force clinches.

Attack takedowns.

Make Jackson carry his weight.

Create scrambles.

Repeat.

Every minute spent wrestling is a minute Jackson isn’t using his massive reach advantage at distance.

Ricky Simón’s Pressure Is Essential

Simón cannot fight cautiously from the outside.

That would play directly into Jackson’s strengths.

He needs pressure.

But it must be intelligent pressure.

Walking straight into Jackson’s left hand would be disastrous.

Simón needs to use feints and combinations to disguise his level changes.

He should also attack the body and legs whenever possible.

The objective is to prevent Jackson from comfortably establishing his preferred range.

If Simón allows Jackson to dictate distance, the underdog could spend 15 minutes chasing him.

Ricky Simón Striking Concerns

The striking numbers create the biggest concern for Simón bettors.

He lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute, essentially identical to Jackson’s 3.02.

But Simón absorbs 3.90 significant strikes per minute, compared with only 1.40 for Jackson.

That’s a dramatic defensive difference.

Simón’s aggressive style contributes to those numbers.

Pressure creates exchanges.

Wrestling entries create opportunities for opponents to counter.

But against a fighter with Jackson’s reach and power, absorbing nearly four significant strikes per minute is dangerous.

Simón cannot afford prolonged kickboxing exchanges.

Jackson vs Simón Statistical Comparison

Statistic	Montel Jackson	Ricky Simón
Professional Record	15-4	22-7-1
Age	34	34
Height	5’10”	5’6″
Reach	75.5″	69″
Significant Strikes/Min	3.02	3.03
Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min	1.40	3.90
Striking Defense	60%	61%
Takedowns/15 Min	2.71	4.49
Takedown Defense	67%	77%
Knockdowns/15 Min	1.36	0.33
Average Fight Time	11:04	12:49

The UFC’s current fighter statistics illustrate the matchup clearly.

Simón has the wrestling-volume advantage.

Jackson has the size, reach, power and striking-efficiency advantages.

That creates a classic range-versus-pressure matchup.

Striking Advantage: Montel Jackson

Jackson owns the striking advantage in our handicap.

The raw output is nearly identical.

Jackson: 3.02 significant strikes landed per minute.

Simón: 3.03.

But that’s where the similarity ends.

Jackson absorbs dramatically less damage.

He has considerably more reach.

And his knockdown rate is more than four times Simón’s.

Jackson averages 1.36 knockdowns per 15 minutes, compared with 0.33 for Simón.

That’s why Simón needs the wrestling.

A pure kickboxing contest strongly favors Jackson.

Wrestling Advantage: Ricky Simón

Simón gets the advantage here.

His 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes give him one of the clearest statistical advantages in the fight.

Jackson’s 67% takedown defense isn’t impenetrable.

That’s important.

Simón should have opportunities.

The challenge will be creating clean entries against someone six inches longer.

If Simón gets underneath Jackson’s hips and connects his hands, he can absolutely win wrestling exchanges.

But getting there without absorbing damage is the difficult part.

Takedown Defense Could Decide Everything

Jackson’s 67% takedown defense is probably the statistic Simón bettors should focus on most.

It’s solid.

It isn’t elite.

That means Simón’s wrestling threat is legitimate.

Jackson doesn’t need to stop every takedown, though.

He needs to make Simón inefficient.

If Simón attempts ten takedowns and lands two, he may spend significant energy without generating enough control to overcome Jackson’s striking.

If he lands five or six, the entire fight changes.

That is the central question behind our Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction.

The First Fight Matters — But Only So Much

Simón’s 2018 victory deserves respect.

He defeated Jackson by unanimous decision in Jackson’s UFC debut.

But bettors need to be careful with rematch narratives.

That fight happened more than eight years ago.

Jackson was making his UFC debut.

Both fighters have changed considerably.

Jackson has accumulated years of UFC experience and developed into a far more polished defensive striker.

Simón has also evolved.

So the first fight provides tactical information, not a guaranteed blueprint.

It proves Simón can beat Jackson.

It doesn’t prove he will do it again.

Recent Form: Montel Jackson

Jackson enters this matchup trying to stabilize his momentum after a mixed recent stretch.

UFC notes that he has won nine of his last 12 fights overall.

His combination of length, athleticism and power has kept him relevant in one of the UFC’s deepest divisions.

The concern is consistency.

Jackson can look extremely difficult to touch when he’s controlling range.

But opponents capable of forcing him into prolonged grappling exchanges can reduce those advantages.

Simón is exactly that type of opponent.

Recent Form: Ricky Simón

Simón’s recent results have also been inconsistent.

He fought Adrian Yanez to a majority draw in March 2026 after losing a unanimous decision to Raoni Barcelos in November 2025. Before that, he defeated Cameron Smotherman by decision and knocked out Javid Basharat.

His last several years have included losses against strong competition such as Barcelos, Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista and Song Yadong.

That makes this an important matchup for both men.

Neither enters with unstoppable momentum.

Both need a meaningful victory.

Experience Advantage: Ricky Simón

Simón has the deeper professional résumé.

He has 30 professional fights compared with Jackson’s 19.

He has also spent significant time against high-level UFC bantamweights.

That experience matters in a tactical fight.

Simón understands how to win ugly rounds.

He can use pressure, takedowns and control to reduce an opponent’s offensive opportunities.

He doesn’t need spectacular moments.

He needs enough effective work to win two of three rounds.

That gives him legitimate underdog appeal around +170 or better.

Why Montel Jackson Is Still the Preferred Side

Despite Simón’s experience and wrestling, we favor Jackson because his advantages should be easier to maintain in 2026 than they were in 2018.

The reach difference is enormous.

Jackson absorbs only 1.40 significant strikes per minute.

Simón absorbs 3.90.

Jackson also possesses considerably more knockdown power statistically.

Simón needs to repeatedly cross dangerous territory to implement his strongest weapon.

Jackson doesn’t.

Jackson can begin winning the fight from the outside immediately.

That distinction matters.

Montel Jackson Moneyline Prediction

Pick: Montel Jackson

Jackson is currently trading around -200 to -210, depending on the sportsbook.

That’s expensive.

But the matchup supports him.

His reach advantage should make Simón’s entries difficult.

His striking defense is excellent.

His power creates another deterrent against aggressive pressure.

The biggest concern is wrestling.

At approximately -205, we’re willing to back Jackson, but we wouldn’t aggressively chase the price if it climbs much farther.

Moneyline Pick: Montel Jackson -205 range

Ricky Simón Moneyline Prediction

Simón is available around +170 to +177, with some current markets reaching higher.

That’s much more interesting than backing him around +130.

There is a legitimate upset path.

Wrestling.

Simón already owns a victory over Jackson and averages 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes.

If he consistently forces Jackson against the fence and wins prolonged grappling exchanges, he can absolutely take a decision.

We simply don’t think that happens often enough to make him our preferred side.

Montel Jackson by Decision Prediction

Best Prop Lean: Montel Jackson by Decision

This is our favorite method-of-victory angle.

Current market comparisons have Jackson by decision around +175, though prices can move before Saturday.

Jackson certainly possesses knockout power.

Eight of his victories have come by KO/TKO.

But Simón is experienced, durable and capable of using wrestling to slow the pace.

That could reduce the number of extended striking exchanges available to Jackson.

Simón’s strategy should also become increasingly conservative if he’s consistently losing at distance.

That points toward a competitive but relatively controlled 15-minute fight.

Method Pick: Montel Jackson by Decision

Fight Goes the Distance Prediction

A decision is also supported by the fighters’ average fight times.

Jackson averages 11:04.

Simón averages 12:49.

Simón has 11 decision victories, representing half of his professional wins.

Jackson has six decision victories.

Current markets also make Over 2.5 rounds the favorite, with one comparison showing the Over around 11/20 and Under around 13/8.

That market agrees with our projected fight script.

Over 2.5 Rounds Prediction

Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds

This is another attractive angle.

Simón’s wrestling can slow the fight.

Jackson’s defensive striking can limit Simón’s offense.

Neither man needs to fight recklessly.

The biggest danger to the Over is Jackson’s power.

His 1.36 knockdowns per 15 minutes and eight career knockout victories cannot be ignored.

Still, Simón’s experience makes us more comfortable projecting the fight into the third round.

Rounds Pick: Over 2.5

Could Montel Jackson Win by Knockout?

Absolutely.

It’s his most dangerous alternative outcome.

Simón absorbs 3.90 significant strikes per minute.

Jackson has eight knockout victories and seven first-round finishes.

The reach discrepancy makes the knockout threat even more interesting.

Simón has to enter Jackson’s range repeatedly.

A counter left hand, knee or uppercut could change the fight instantly.

If you’re looking for a higher-risk plus-money angle rather than Jackson’s expensive moneyline, Jackson by KO/TKO deserves consideration.

Our projection simply favors the decision.

Could Ricky Simón Pull the Upset?

Yes.

His upset formula is obvious.

Make this a wrestling match.

Simón shouldn’t care whether the fight is aesthetically pleasing.

He should pressure Jackson toward the fence, connect his hands and force repeated grappling exchanges.

If he can land four or five takedowns and accumulate meaningful control, Jackson’s reach becomes considerably less important.

Simón’s 77% takedown defense also means Jackson is unlikely to easily reverse the matchup by becoming the primary wrestler himself.

That’s why Jackson at -200 isn’t risk-free.

Round 1 Prediction

Expect Simón to test Jackson’s takedown defense early.

He knows exactly what happens if he allows Jackson to settle into a long-range kickboxing rhythm.

Jackson should initially prioritize distance management.

Use the jab.

Use straight punches.

Circle away from pressure.

Make Simón work to reach the hips.

The first successful wrestling sequence will tell us a lot.

If Jackson easily separates, the matchup becomes increasingly favorable for the favorite.

If Simón gets extended control, the underdog becomes dangerous immediately.

Our lean is Jackson Round 1, primarily through cleaner striking.

Round 2 Prediction

This is where Jackson’s reads should become more important.

After seeing Simón’s entries for five minutes, he should have a better understanding of the timing.

That can create counter opportunities.

Simón may also become more desperate with his pressure if he’s behind.

That increases both his takedown opportunities and Jackson’s opportunities to hurt him.

We expect Jackson to land the cleaner damage while Simón continues generating enough wrestling activity to keep the round competitive.

Round 3 Prediction

If Jackson enters Round 3 ahead, he doesn’t need unnecessary exchanges.

Distance becomes even more valuable.

Simón would be forced to increase pressure.

That could produce his best wrestling opportunities because Jackson may become more defensive.

It could also expose Simón to Jackson’s most dangerous counters.

We expect Simón to push hard late but Jackson to do enough to protect his advantage.

Montel Jackson Path to Victory

Jackson should make this fight boring before trying to make it spectacular.

Stay long.

Don’t voluntarily clinch.

Punish entries.

Separate quickly.

Force Simón to reset.

His reach advantage is too significant to waste.

Jackson doesn’t need to chase the knockout.

If it appears, take it.

Otherwise, accumulating cleaner strikes while forcing Simón into inefficient takedown attempts is enough to win.

The worst thing Jackson can do is willingly fight Simón’s fight.

Ricky Simón Path to Victory

Simón needs almost the opposite strategy.

Close distance immediately.

Don’t let Jackson establish rhythm.

Mix striking combinations into level changes.

Push Jackson toward the cage.

Chain wrestling attacks together.

One takedown attempt may not work.

The second might.

Simón’s 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes demonstrates how willing he is to wrestle repeatedly.

That’s his path.

Make Jackson defend constantly.

Potential Risks to the Montel Jackson Pick

The biggest concern is obvious.

Wrestling.

Jackson’s takedown defense sits at 67%.

That’s good enough against many opponents.

Simón isn’t a normal wrestling opponent.

He averages nearly 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Jackson could therefore win the striking exchanges and still lose rounds if Simón generates enough takedowns and control.

The second concern is price.

Jackson around -205 requires significant confidence.

If the market pushes him toward -250, the risk-reward calculation changes.

That’s why Jackson by decision may provide better value.

Why Jackson by Decision Is Our Preferred Bet

The Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction favors Jackson, but the moneyline requires bettors to lay roughly two dollars to win one.

The decision prop changes that.

Current market comparisons have shown Jackson by decision around +175.

That aligns well with our expected fight script.

Jackson controls range.

Simón wrestles enough to prevent a pure striking battle.

Jackson lands the cleaner damage.

Simón survives.

The judges decide it.

That’s the outcome we’re targeting.

Projected Fight Script

Expect Simón to begin aggressively.

He’ll pressure Jackson and immediately try to eliminate the favorite’s reach advantage.

Jackson should spend the early minutes measuring distance and punishing entries.

Simón will eventually find wrestling opportunities.

We don’t expect Jackson to defend every takedown.

But we do expect him to prevent Simón from maintaining enough control to dominate entire rounds.

As the fight progresses, Simón’s entries should become increasingly predictable.

That’s where Jackson’s striking takes over.

Straight punches from range.

Counters when Simón changes levels.

Quick combinations followed by lateral movement.

Simón remains competitive because of his wrestling.

Jackson wins because of cleaner damage.

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Scorecard Prediction

Our projected result:

Montel Jackson defeats Ricky Simón by unanimous decision, 29-28

We expect a competitive fight.

Simón should win portions of the matchup through wrestling and pressure.

He may even clearly win one round.

But Jackson’s striking efficiency, reach and defensive advantages should allow him to bank at least two rounds.

A 30-27 card is possible.

29-28 Jackson is our preferred projection.

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction: Best Bets

Best Bet: Montel Jackson by Decision

The plus-money price offers more appeal than Jackson’s expensive straight moneyline, and Simón’s wrestling should help extend the fight.

Moneyline Pick: Montel Jackson -205 range

Jackson’s massive reach advantage, defensive striking and knockout threat give him more ways to control the matchup.

Rounds Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds

Simón’s wrestling and experience should create stretches of slower, control-oriented action.

Underdog Consideration: Ricky Simón +175 or Better

Simón has a legitimate wrestling path and already owns a victory over Jackson, although we’re not making him our primary pick.

Higher-Risk Prop: Montel Jackson by KO/TKO

Jackson’s eight career knockouts and 1.36 knockdowns per 15 minutes give him real finishing upside.

Final Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction

The Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction backs Jackson to avenge his 2018 defeat and earn a decision victory Saturday night.

This matchup is much closer tactically than the moneyline might initially suggest.

Simón remains a dangerous opponent because his wrestling directly attacks Jackson’s biggest vulnerability.

He averages 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, owns 77% takedown defense and already knows what it feels like to beat Jackson over three rounds.

But Jackson now possesses a combination of advantages that should be difficult for Simón to consistently overcome.

Jackson is four inches taller.

His reach advantage exceeds six inches.

He absorbs only 1.40 significant strikes per minute compared with Simón’s 3.90.

And Jackson averages 1.36 knockdowns per 15 minutes compared with only 0.33 for Simón.

Those numbers matter because Simón must repeatedly enter Jackson’s striking range to initiate his wrestling.

Every entry creates risk.

We expect Simón to land some takedowns.

We don’t expect him to maintain enough control to reproduce his 2018 victory.

Instead, Jackson should increasingly find his range as the fight progresses, land the cleaner and more damaging strikes and force Simón to chase the matchup late.

That produces a competitive scorecard rather than a dominant performance.

Final Prediction: Montel Jackson by Unanimous Decision

Projected Scorecards: Montel Jackson 29-28

Best Bet: Montel Jackson by Decision

Moneyline Pick: Montel Jackson -205 range

Rounds Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds

The Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón UFC Vegas 121 Betting Prediction therefore favors Jackson to use his extraordinary reach, superior defensive striking and countering ability to neutralize enough of Simón’s wrestling and avenge his UFC debut loss with a decision victory.

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