Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction: Can Modestas Bukauskas Pull the Upset at UFC Paris?

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction: Can Modestas Bukauskas Pull the Upset at UFC Paris?

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction: Can Bukauskas upset Sy at UFC Paris? Compare odds, striking, wrestling, defense, and recent fight data.

The Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction is Modestas Bukauskas (+177) at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Sy enters as the -205 favorite, but Bukauskas offers attractive plus-money value because of his superior takedown efficiency, 82% takedown defense, 20-7 record, and ability to compete with Sy in the striking department.

Sy has the stronger defensive striking statistics and averages more significant strikes per minute, but Bukauskas lands 66% of his takedown attempts and stops 82% of takedowns against him. Those numbers could be especially important against a fighter who averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Pick: Modestas Bukauskas (+177)

A Summary of the Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction

Oumar Sy and Modestas Bukauskas meet at 205 pounds at Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Saturday, September 5, 2026.

Sy enters as the -205 favorite with a 12-2-0 record. Bukauskas is the +177 underdog and owns a 20-7-0 record.

The matchup is competitive statistically, although each fighter has different strengths.

Sy has the better striking numbers in several categories. He lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and absorbs only 1.87 significant strikes per minute. He also defends 66% of incoming significant strikes.

Bukauskas lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy, while absorbing 3.86. His significant-strike defense sits at 50%.

The biggest reason to consider Bukauskas at +177 is his grappling efficiency. He completes 66% of his takedown attempts and stops 82% of the takedowns attempted against him. Sy averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, but converts only 35% of his attempts.

Bukauskas also owns the better career record and comes into the fight off a split-decision victory over Christian Edwards.

The Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction therefore identifies Bukauskas as the value side despite Sy’s status as the favorite.

Table of Contents

• Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction
• Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Odds
• Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Striking Comparison
• Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Grappling Comparison
• Oumar Sy’s Recent Fight
• Modestas Bukauskas’ Recent Fight
• Why Modestas Bukauskas Is the Pick
• Can Oumar Sy Win the Fight?
• Physical Advantages in the Matchup
• Other UFC Paris Fights to Watch
• Follow-Up Questions
• FAQ
• Final Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Odds

The opening odds list Oumar Sy at -205 and Modestas Bukauskas at +177.

Sy is therefore the clear favorite, while Bukauskas enters as the underdog.

The price creates an important distinction for bettors. Sy does have several statistical advantages, particularly in significant-strike defense and overall striking efficiency. However, Bukauskas is not being priced as though he has no realistic route to victory.

His 20-7-0 career record, strong takedown defense, high takedown completion rate, and experience give him several reasons to consider the plus-money side.

At +177, Bukauskas does not need to dominate every statistical category. He needs to perform well enough in the areas where he has an advantage to make the underdog price attractive.

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Striking Comparison

Sy has the statistical edge in striking.

He lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute, while Bukauskas lands 3.14. Sy also has better significant-strike accuracy at 48%, compared with 43% for Bukauskas.

The larger difference comes in defensive striking.

Sy absorbs only 1.87 significant strikes per minute, while Bukauskas absorbs 3.86. Sy also defends 66% of significant strikes directed at him compared with Bukauskas’ 50%.

On the surface, those numbers favor Sy considerably.

However, Bukauskas has demonstrated an ability to produce competitive striking performances. In his most recent fight against Christian Edwards, Bukauskas landed 36 of 80 significant strikes for 45% accuracy.

Edwards landed the same number of significant strikes, going 36 of 71.

That fight ended with Bukauskas winning by split decision, demonstrating that he can remain competitive when the striking numbers are relatively close.

Oumar Sy’s Striking Numbers

Sy:

• 3.41 significant strikes landed per minute
• 48% significant-strike accuracy
• 1.87 significant strikes absorbed per minute
• 66% significant-strike defense

Those numbers make Sy the more efficient defensive striker entering UFC Paris.

Modestas Bukauskas’ Striking Numbers

Bukauskas:

• 3.14 significant strikes landed per minute
• 43% significant-strike accuracy
• 3.86 significant strikes absorbed per minute
• 50% significant-strike defense

Bukauskas gives up considerably more significant-strike volume, but the underdog’s strongest case does not depend on winning a pure striking battle.

His wrestling defense could allow him to dictate where portions of the fight take place.

Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Grappling Comparison

The wrestling statistics create one of the most interesting aspects of this matchup.

Sy averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and converts 35% of his attempts.

Bukauskas, meanwhile, completes 66% of his takedown attempts and stops 82% of takedowns attempted against him.

That creates an unusual matchup.

Sy is the more active takedown artist, but Bukauskas has the significantly better takedown-defense percentage. If Bukauskas can maintain his 82% defensive rate, he could limit one of Sy’s clearest methods of controlling the fight.

Bukauskas also has the more efficient offensive takedown percentage.

Takedown Defense Could Be Critical

Sy’s 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes suggest that he is willing to pursue the fight on the mat.

But his 35% success rate means his takedown attempts do not automatically translate into control.

Bukauskas’ 82% takedown defense is therefore a key statistic behind the underdog pick.

If Bukauskas can force Sy to spend more time striking, he could keep the fight in an area where his physical size and experience become more relevant.

Submission Attempts

Sy averages 0.3 submission attempts per three rounds, while Bukauskas averages 0.1.

That gives Sy a modest advantage in submission activity.

However, the overall grappling numbers still provide Bukauskas with a compelling defensive argument because his 82% takedown defense could prevent Sy from consistently establishing the positions necessary to generate submission opportunities.

Oumar Sy’s Recent Fight

Sy’s most recent fight ended in a first-round loss to Ion Cutelaba by guillotine choke.

The fight was brief, with Cutelaba landing 40 of 49 total strikes compared with Sy’s 5 of 11.

In significant strikes, Cutelaba landed 14 of 20 for 70% accuracy. Sy landed 5 of 11 for 45%.

Sy connected with only 1 of 7 significant strikes aimed at the head.

The loss should be considered when evaluating the favorite, although the limited sample from that fight makes it difficult to draw broad conclusions about Sy’s overall ability.

The more relevant point for this matchup is that Sy enters UFC Paris looking to rebound from a quick submission loss.

Modestas Bukauskas’ Recent Fight

Bukauskas enters after a split-decision victory over Christian Edwards.

Bukauskas landed 36 of 80 significant strikes, connecting at 45%. Edwards landed 36 of 71.

The head-strike numbers were also competitive. Bukauskas landed 21 of 64 significant strikes to the head, while Edwards landed 13 of 41.

In total strikes, Edwards went 51 of 89, while Bukauskas connected on 52 of 99.

The fight showed Bukauskas’ ability to remain competitive across three rounds despite Edwards producing similar significant-strike numbers.

That experience could be valuable against Sy.

Why Modestas Bukauskas Is the Pick

The Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction ultimately comes down to value.

Sy deserves to be favored based on several of the supplied statistics. He lands slightly more significant strikes, is more accurate, absorbs far fewer significant strikes, and has substantially better significant-strike defense.

But the betting line requires bettors to account for the price.

At +177, Bukauskas offers a plus-money opportunity in a matchup where he has legitimate statistical advantages.

His biggest edge is takedown defense.

Bukauskas stops 82% of takedowns, while Sy converts only 35% of his takedown attempts. If those numbers carry over into the matchup, Sy could have difficulty establishing consistent grappling control.

Bukauskas also converts 66% of his own takedown attempts, compared with Sy’s 35%.

That gives Bukauskas a potential path to changing the pace of the fight himself.

His 20-7-0 record also represents substantial professional experience, while Sy enters with a 12-2-0 mark.

The pick is not based on Bukauskas being statistically superior everywhere. It is based on the underdog having specific strengths that could interfere with Sy’s preferred methods while offering a favorable price.

Can Oumar Sy Win the Fight?

Absolutely.

Sy is the favorite for a reason.

His 1.87 significant strikes absorbed per minute compared with Bukauskas’ 3.86 is one of the strongest statistical differences in the matchup.

Sy also defends 66% of significant strikes, substantially better than Bukauskas’ 50%.

If Sy can keep the fight at distance and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges, his defensive striking profile gives him an advantage.

His 3.41 significant strikes per minute also slightly exceeds Bukauskas’ 3.14.

The favorite’s clearest path is therefore to combine his cleaner defensive striking with his takedown game while avoiding situations where Bukauskas can capitalize on his 82% takedown defense.

Physical Advantages in the Matchup

The fighters are almost identical in height, with Sy standing 6’4″ and Bukauskas measuring 6’3″.

The larger physical difference is reach.

Sy owns an 83-inch wingspan, while Bukauskas has a 76-inch wingspan.

That gives Sy a seven-inch reach advantage.

This is an important factor because Sy can potentially use his length to maintain distance and limit Bukauskas’ ability to enter comfortably.

However, Bukauskas has competed extensively at 205 pounds and brings experience into the matchup.

The physical statistics therefore favor Sy, while the betting value comes from Bukauskas’ ability to offset those advantages with his defensive grappling.

Other UFC Paris Fights to Watch

Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias

Matthieu Duclos meets Luis Felipe Dias in another interesting UFC Paris matchup.

Duclos is 10-3-0, stands 6’3″, and fights at 185 pounds with a 77-inch reach. Dias is 18-5-0, stands 5’10”, and has a 74-inch reach.

Duclos averages 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Dias averages 4.52 per three rounds.

On the feet, Duclos lands 3.93 strikes per minute at 37% accuracy. Dias lands 2.86 per minute at 45%.

The matchup features another contrast between striking efficiency and wrestling activity.

Klaudia Sygula vs Nora Cornolle

Klaudia Sygula also faces Nora Cornolle at UFC Paris.

Cornolle enters with a 9-4-0 record, while Sygula is 8-2-0.

Cornolle is 5’7″ with a 67-inch reach, while Sygula stands 5’8″ with a 69-inch reach.

Sygula lands 7.27 strikes per minute but absorbs 5.50, while Cornolle lands 2.73 and absorbs 2.04.

Cornolle stops 47% of takedowns and completes 11% of her own attempts. Sygula completes 12% and stops 40%.

Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas?

Oumar Sy is the favorite at -205, while Modestas Bukauskas is priced at +177.

Why is Oumar Sy favored?

Sy has stronger significant-strike defense, absorbs fewer strikes, lands slightly more significant strikes per minute, and owns a seven-inch reach advantage.

Can Modestas Bukauskas beat Oumar Sy?

Yes. Bukauskas has a legitimate path to victory through his 82% takedown defense, 66% takedown success rate, experience, and plus-money price.

Who has better striking statistics?

Sy has the better overall striking statistics, landing 3.41 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and absorbing only 1.87.

Who has better takedown defense?

Bukauskas has the better takedown-defense percentage at 82%, compared with Sy’s 66%.

Who has the better takedown offense?

Sy averages more takedowns per 15 minutes at 2.45, but Bukauskas has the higher takedown success rate at 66% compared with Sy’s 35%.

What is the best Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas betting pick?

Based on the supplied matchup statistics and opening odds, the pick is Modestas Bukauskas (+177).

FAQ

What is the Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction?

The Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction is Modestas Bukauskas at +177.

What are the odds for Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas?

Oumar Sy is listed at -205, while Modestas Bukauskas is listed at +177 based on the supplied opening odds.

What is Oumar Sy’s record?

Oumar Sy enters UFC Paris with a 12-2-0 record.

What is Modestas Bukauskas’ record?

Modestas Bukauskas enters the fight with a 20-7-0 record.

Who has the better significant-strike defense?

Sy has the stronger significant-strike defense, stopping 66% of incoming significant strikes compared with Bukauskas’ 50%.

Who has the better takedown defense?

Bukauskas has the better takedown defense, stopping 82% of takedowns attempted against him.

Who has the reach advantage?

Sy has a substantial reach advantage. He has an 83-inch wingspan compared with Bukauskas’ 76 inches.

Where is Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas taking place?

The fight is scheduled for Accor Arena in Paris, France, as part of UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026.

Final Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction

The Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Betting Prediction presents a classic favorite-versus-underdog matchup where the favorite owns several superior raw statistics but the underdog has specific tools capable of disrupting the matchup.

Sy has the better striking profile. He lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute compared with 3.14 for Bukauskas, absorbs just 1.87 compared with 3.86, and defends 66% of significant strikes.

His seven-inch reach advantage is another important weapon.

But Bukauskas brings the more compelling value at +177.

His 82% takedown defense could neutralize one of Sy’s most obvious paths to controlling the fight. Bukauskas also converts 66% of his takedown attempts compared with Sy’s 35%, giving him his own potential grappling advantage when he chooses to wrestle.

Bukauskas is also coming off a split-decision win over Christian Edwards and owns a 20-7-0 professional record.

The matchup is competitive enough statistically to make the underdog price appealing.

Pick: Modestas Bukauskas (+177)

The preferred bet is Bukauskas because his elite takedown-defense percentage, efficient wrestling, experience, and plus-money price provide a credible upset path against a favorite whose strongest advantages come in striking defense and physical reach. As always, the statistical matchup supports the pick but does not guarantee the result.

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