Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction: Who Should You Bet on at UFC Paris?

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction: Who Should You Bet on at UFC Paris?

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction: Who should you bet on at UFC Paris on September 5, 2026? Compare odds, stats and the best pick.

The Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction favors Felipe Lima (-183) at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Lima enters as the favorite with a 14-2-0 record and has significant advantages in defensive striking and takedown defense.

Morgan Charriere has the higher offensive striking output, landing 4.02 significant strikes per minute compared with Lima’s 2.86. However, Lima absorbs only 2.91 significant strikes per minute while Charriere absorbs 4.51. Lima also defends 64% of significant strikes compared with Charriere’s 53% and stops 85% of takedown attempts compared with Charriere’s 83%.

Charriere has more professional experience, a slight physical advantage and greater striking volume, but Lima’s efficiency and defensive numbers make him the preferred side at the listed odds.

Pick: Felipe Lima (-183).

A Summary of the Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction

Morgan “The Last Pirate” Charriere and Felipe “Jungle Boy” Lima meet at UFC Paris inside the Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Saturday, September 5, 2026.

The moneyline has Lima favored at -183, while Charriere is listed at +160.

Charriere enters with a 21-12-1 record. The 30-year-old weighs 145 pounds, stands 5-foot-8 and has a 69-inch reach. Lima is 28 years old, also weighs 145 pounds and stands 5-foot-6 with a 68-inch reach.

Charriere therefore owns one-inch advantages in both height and reach.

The records favor Lima despite his having fewer professional fights. Lima is 14-2-0, while Charriere is 21-12-1.

The most notable statistical difference comes in defensive striking. Charriere lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute and connects on 50% of his attempts. Lima lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy.

However, Charriere absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute, while Lima absorbs just 2.91. Lima also defends 64% of significant strikes compared with Charriere’s 53%.

The grappling numbers are similarly close, although Lima has a slight defensive edge. Charriere averages 2.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, converts 46% of attempts and stops 83% of opponents’ takedowns. Lima converts 27% of his takedowns but defends 85% of attempts against him.

Those numbers give Lima a strong statistical case despite Charriere’s higher offensive output.

Table of Contents

• Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction
• Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Odds
• Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Matchup
• Charriere’s Offensive Striking Advantage
• Lima’s Defensive Striking Advantage
• Grappling and Submission Analysis
• Charriere’s Last Fight
• Lima’s Last Fight
• What Could Decide the Fight?
• Other UFC Paris Fights to Watch
• Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Follow-Up Questions
• Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima FAQ
• Final Betting Pick

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Odds

The UFC Paris moneyline is:

Fighter	Odds
Morgan Charriere	+160
Felipe Lima	-183

Lima is the favorite, but the price remains within a range where the underdog presents a meaningful alternative.

Charriere at +160 offers plus-money value, while Lima at -183 requires bettors to pay a premium for the favored side.

The key question is whether Lima’s defensive statistics are enough to overcome Charriere’s significantly higher striking volume.

The supplied numbers point toward Lima.

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Matchup

The physical differences are minimal.

Morgan Charriere

• 30 years old
• 21-12-1
• 145 pounds
• 5-foot-8
• 69-inch reach
• Orthodox

Felipe Lima

• 28 years old
• 14-2-0
• 145 pounds
• 5-foot-6
• 68-inch reach
• Orthodox

Charriere has the one-inch height and reach advantages, but Lima is two years younger and owns the substantially better winning percentage.

Charriere also has considerably more professional experience.

That experience can matter in a matchup between two fighters with relatively similar physical dimensions. However, Lima’s 14-2-0 record indicates that he has been highly effective despite having fewer professional appearances.

The statistical profiles suggest Charriere wants to use activity and volume, while Lima’s strongest case comes from efficiency and defense.

Charriere’s Offensive Striking Advantage

Charriere’s biggest statistical advantage is striking volume.

He lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute, compared with 2.86 for Lima.

That means Charriere produces substantially more significant-strike offense.

His accuracy is also better, although the difference is relatively small. Charriere lands 50% of his significant strikes, while Lima connects on 45%.

If Charriere can maintain his normal offensive output while avoiding Lima’s counters, he has the tools to make the favorite uncomfortable.

The problem is what happens when Charriere’s offense does not immediately overwhelm his opponent.

He absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute.

Lima absorbs only 2.91.

That means Charriere’s higher output comes with considerably greater defensive exposure.

For a fighter facing an opponent with a 64% significant-strike defense rate, simply throwing more may not be enough.

Lima’s Defensive Striking Advantage

The strongest argument behind the Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction is Lima’s defensive striking.

Lima lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute, which is lower than Charriere’s 4.02.

But Lima absorbs only 2.91 significant strikes per minute, compared with Charriere’s 4.51.

That is a difference of 1.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute.

Lima also stops 64% of significant strikes thrown at him. Charriere’s significant-strike defense is 53%.

This suggests Lima has a more controlled approach to exchanges.

His 45% striking accuracy is lower than Charriere’s 50%, but the defensive difference is much more significant.

If Lima can prevent Charriere from turning his volume advantage into clean, damaging connections, the favorite’s defensive profile could dictate the fight.

Grappling and Submission Analysis

The wrestling numbers provide another reason to favor Lima.

Charriere averages 2.06 takedowns per 15 minutes and converts 46% of his attempts.

Lima converts only 27% of his takedown attempts.

That gives Charriere the clear advantage in offensive takedown efficiency.

However, Lima has the better takedown defense.

He stops 85% of takedown attempts against him, compared with Charriere’s 83%.

Both numbers are strong, which means neither fighter should be expected to consistently dominate the other through wrestling.

Submission activity favors Lima.

Charriere attempts 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes, while Lima attempts 0.7 finishes per three rounds.

That gives Lima the higher listed submission activity and another potential avenue to finish the fight.

The overall grappling picture is therefore mixed: Charriere has better offensive takedown efficiency, while Lima has slightly better takedown defense and more submission activity.

Charriere’s Last Fight

Charriere’s most recent UFC appearance ended in a first-round defeat against Melquizael Costa by head kick.

The fight was extremely short, with Costa landing 4 of 9 total strikes and Charriere landing 2 of 4.

In significant strikes, Costa connected on 4 of 9 attempts, or 44%. He landed 1 of 3 significant strikes to the head.

Charriere also landed 50% of his significant strikes, connecting on 2 of 4 attempts.

Both fighters landed 100% of their significant strikes at distance in the limited sample.

The short duration means the fight does not provide much statistical information about Charriere’s normal output, but the result highlights the dangers of giving an opponent an opening at range.

Against Lima, Charriere will need to avoid another early mistake while finding ways to leverage his greater offensive volume.

Lima’s Last Fight

Lima’s previous bout was against Payton Talbott, and Lima lost by unanimous decision after three rounds.

Lima connected on 44% of his significant-strike attempts, landing 26 of 58.

He landed 17 of 48 significant strikes aimed at the head.

Talbott landed 59 of 118 significant strikes.

The distance striking numbers are interesting. Lima connected on 80% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance, while Talbott connected on 62%.

Lima also landed 37 of 70 total strikes.

Although Lima lost the decision, the numbers demonstrate that he was capable of producing efficient distance striking. His 44% significant-strike accuracy in that fight was close to the 45% figure listed in his broader statistics.

What Could Decide the Fight?

Can Charriere Turn Volume Into Damage?

Charriere lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute.

That is a substantial offensive advantage.

But Lima absorbs only 2.91 significant strikes per minute and defends 64% of incoming significant strikes.

Charriere needs his volume to translate into meaningful scoring and damage rather than simply accumulating attempts.

Can Lima Avoid Being Outworked?

Lima’s defensive profile is strong, but Charriere throws enough offense to create problems.

If Lima spends too much of the fight defending without producing enough offense of his own, Charriere’s volume could become decisive on the scorecards.

Lima lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute, so he will need to find enough offensive success to complement his defense.

Who Controls the Grappling Exchanges?

Charriere converts 46% of his takedowns, while Lima converts 27%.

That gives Charriere an offensive wrestling advantage.

But Lima stops 85% of takedown attempts, making it difficult for Charriere to rely entirely on wrestling.

The fight could therefore spend substantial time on the feet, where Lima’s defensive striking numbers become especially important.

Can Lima Find a Submission?

Lima is listed at 0.7 submission attempts per three rounds compared with 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes for Charriere.

His higher submission activity provides another path to victory.

If Lima can turn a striking exchange into a grappling sequence, his submission offense could become an important factor.

Other UFC Paris Fights to Watch

The UFC Paris card has several additional matchups worth following.

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

Losene Keita enters with a 16-2-0 record. The 28-year-old orthodox fighter competes at 145 pounds, stands 5-foot-7 and has a 72-inch reach.

Muhammad Naimov is 13-4-0. The 32-year-old orthodox fighter stands 5-foot-9 and has a 70-inch reach.

Keita averages 0.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Naimov averages 1.49.

The striking numbers favor Keita in offensive production. He lands 3.47 strikes per minute at 43% accuracy, while Naimov lands 2.51 per minute at 40%.

That creates an interesting matchup between Keita’s striking output and Naimov’s greater listed takedown activity.

Ryan Spann vs Mario Pinto

The heavyweight matchup between Ryan Spann and undefeated Mario Pinto is another fight to watch.

Pinto enters with a 12-0-0 record, while Spann is 24-11-0.

Pinto is 6-foot-5 with a 79-inch reach and weighs 265 pounds. Spann is also 6-foot-5 with a 79-inch reach at 264 pounds.

Pinto averages 2.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.93. Spann lands 3.11 but absorbs 3.92.

Pinto also stops 85% of takedowns compared with Spann’s 59%.

The matchup offers a contrast between Pinto’s efficiency and Spann’s experience and offensive volume.

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Follow-Up Questions

Who is favored in Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima?

Felipe Lima is favored at -183, while Morgan Charriere is listed at +160.

Why is Felipe Lima favored?

Lima has the better record and significant defensive advantages. He absorbs 2.91 significant strikes per minute and defends 64% of incoming significant strikes.

Who lands more significant strikes?

Morgan Charriere lands more, averaging 4.02 significant strikes per minute compared with Lima’s 2.86.

Who is more accurate?

Charriere lands 50% of his significant-strike attempts, compared with 45% for Lima.

Who has better striking defense?

Lima defends 64% of significant strikes compared with Charriere’s 53%.

Who absorbs fewer significant strikes?

Lima, at 2.91 per minute compared with Charriere’s 4.51.

Who has better takedown offense?

Charriere converts 46% of his takedown attempts, compared with 27% for Lima.

Who has better takedown defense?

Lima has the edge, stopping 85% of takedown attempts compared with Charriere’s 83%.

Who has more submission activity?

Lima is listed at 0.7 submission attempts per three rounds, while Charriere attempts 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes.

Is Felipe Lima worth betting at -183?

Based on the supplied statistics, Lima -183 is the preferred side. His defensive striking, takedown defense and overall record provide the strongest statistical case.

Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima FAQ

What are the Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima odds?

Morgan Charriere is listed at +160, while Felipe Lima is priced at -183.

When is Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima?

The fight takes place Saturday, September 5, 2026, at UFC Paris.

Where is Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima?

The matchup is scheduled for the Accor Arena in Paris, France.

What is Morgan Charriere’s record?

Charriere enters with a 21-12-1 record.

What is Felipe Lima’s record?

Lima enters with a 14-2-0 record.

Who is taller?

Morgan Charriere is one inch taller at 5-foot-8 compared with Lima at 5-foot-6.

Who has the longer reach?

Charriere has a one-inch reach advantage, 69 inches to Lima’s 68.

Who lands more significant strikes?

Charriere averages 4.02 significant strikes per minute, compared with Lima’s 2.86.

Who absorbs fewer significant strikes?

Lima absorbs 2.91 significant strikes per minute, while Charriere absorbs 4.51.

Who has better takedown defense?

Lima stops 85% of takedown attempts, compared with Charriere’s 83%.

Who is the betting pick?

The supplied pick is Felipe Lima (-183).

Final Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction

The Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Betting Prediction favors Felipe Lima because his defensive profile provides a strong answer to Charriere’s offensive volume.

Charriere is the busier striker, landing 4.02 significant strikes per minute compared with Lima’s 2.86. He is also more accurate at 50% versus 45% and has a meaningful advantage in offensive takedown efficiency.

But Lima’s defense is the difference.

He absorbs just 2.91 significant strikes per minute, compared with Charriere’s 4.51. Lima also defends 64% of incoming significant strikes, while Charriere defends 53%.

That is a significant defensive gap.

Lima also owns an 85% takedown-defense rate, slightly better than Charriere’s 83%. While Charriere is more effective when attempting takedowns, Lima’s ability to prevent opponents from establishing wrestling exchanges should help keep the fight in areas where he can rely on his defensive striking.

The recent results also create an interesting dynamic. Charriere is coming off a first-round head-kick loss to Melquizael Costa, while Lima is coming off a unanimous-decision loss to Payton Talbott. Neither fighter enters after a victory, making this a particularly important opportunity for both.

Charriere’s 21-12-1 record gives him substantially more professional experience than Lima’s 14-2-0. He also has slight height and reach advantages. But Lima’s record and statistical efficiency make him the more appealing side at the listed price.

The biggest concern for Lima is Charriere’s ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. If Charriere can maintain his 4.02 significant strikes-per-minute pace while avoiding Lima’s counters and submission opportunities, the underdog can make this a competitive fight.

Still, the overall statistical profile favors the favorite.

Pick: Felipe Lima (-183).

As with any UFC wager, this prediction is based on the supplied matchup statistics and listed odds, and no betting outcome is guaranteed.

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